Monthly Archives: January 2008

Deadlines

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As the last few minutes of the football transfer window tick by, many a fan is left scratching their head and questioning “why couldn’t we have bought player X two weeks ago?”. It’s always the same. After four mad weeks of rumours, the trickle of transfers turns into a downpour as the protagonists see the window closing.

That’s the power of the deadline though. So long as it’s in the distance, you can keep your potential partner guessing, both waiting for the other’s patience to run-out. Once the deadline is upon you, there’s no choice but to act and in many cases a rush of blood to the head can lead to regrets.

Johan Santana apparently became tired of waiting around for the Twins to make a decision on his future, so he used the bargaining power of his no-trade clause and made them act. If the Yankees had really put Phil Hughes on the table a month or so ago, or if the Red Sox had dangled Jacoby Ellsbury, there’s little doubt that the Twins’ didn’t cope very well under the pressure of the deadline. You could argue that they only have themselves to blame: they (more specifically former GM Terry Ryan) were the ones who agreed to the clause when signing Santana back in 2004. Winning the Cy Young in 2006 activated his no-trade clause and he is justifiably using it to leverage a massive pay day. It’s fair to say that Santana and his agent have played their cards perfectly and you wouldn’t bet against them doing it again.

So now we will have to see how the Mets respond in a similar situation. Their conditional deal looks like a masterstroke, but they’ve still got to come up with a lucrative multi-year deal that is to Johan’s liking. And they’ve only got until 17.00 ET tomorrow to reach an agreement. By 22.00 UK time, Mets fans should know whether they will be celebrating the arrival of the best pitcher in baseball, or if they will be drowning their sorrows at seeing a bright new future dashed at the final hurdle.

The extremes at play here make me lean towards an optimistic prediction for fans of the Mets and fans of all teams in the AL. Can Omar Minaya really let Santana slip from his grasp when he is so close to pulling off such a monumental deal? After the way their 2007 season ended in such a harrowing fashion? I don’t think so. The only potential sticking point is that Santana and his agent will know as well as anyone how desperate the Mets will now be to make sure the deal doesn’t fall apart. The New York press will have their knives out ready to feast on another ‘last minute choke’ by the Mets and with the deadline looming, it will be hard for Minaya to turn down a demand for an extra $20 million, or an extra year. And that $20 million or one year could be the difference between an acceptably lucrative contract and a burdensome one.

The Mets knew the score when they entered this race: Santana’s going to end up with the largest deal ever signed by a pitcher. If Barry Zito can get a 7 year/$126m deal from the (admittedly insane) San Francisco Giants, Santana must be looking for something in the region of 6/$125m or 7/$145m. That’s a big commitment to make in a starting pitcher. We’ll have to wait and see what the pressure of the deadline produces.

The New Dickson Baseball Dictionary by Paul Dickson

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The New Dickson Baseball Dictionary by Paul Dickson (Harvest, 1999), 579 pages

Anyone unfamiliar with baseball has to face a steep learning curve during their early forays into the sport. Whether watching or reading about a game, it soon becomes apparent that baseball has its own language; a lexicon containing dingers, sacrifice flies and RBIs. At first, this can be a barrier to understanding. In time, the rich, vibrant language becomes an integral part of your own vocabulary, allowing you to feel part of the large baseball family. Paul Dickson’s Baseball Dictionary is an invaluable tool to help you bridge this gap.  Continue reading →

Report on Clemens’s career

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Life can be difficult, depressing and challenging at times and our defence mechanisms kick-in to help us through. Some turn to religion; some to drink and drugs. The more restrained among us hold on to hoary bits of wisdom, convincing ourselves that they might be true.

One such piece of wisdom is the assertion that positive things can come out of adversity.

And so they have.

Roger Clemens is facing great adversity due to his alleged links with performance-enhancing drugs. Consequently baseball fans get a very detailed analysis of a great pitcher’s career for free!

The report has been produced by the group that manages Clemens’s affairs, so naturally they are pursuing an agenda here (i.e. Providing evidence to refute claims that the Rocket’s performance has been spiked in recent years by the use of PEDs), but it’s an interesting insight into the sort of details that an agent may compile for arbitration hearings.

Baseball’s future in Britain

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Much of the news emanating from Major League Baseball this week confirms the view that baseball is thriving internationally. The 2008 regular season schedule was officially released, with the opening series in Japan taking centre stage. MLB also announced that the Dodgers and the Padres will be playing two spring training games in China on the 15th and 16th of March. These will be held in the 12,000 capacity Wukesong Baseball Field in Beijing, the main base for the Olympic baseball tournament taking place later this year. Sadly, this good news was off-set by the confirmation that Great Britain’s chances of playing in this stadium had been dashed due to off-the-field problems.

While the International Baseball Federation stressed “issues with player availability”, the British Baseball Federation has made it clear that a lack of funding was the main reason for their withdrawal from the final Olympic qualifying tournament (the BBF also stated that the IBAF was “unable to provide a large enough sum” to cover the cost of the trip, which perhaps suggests why the international body tried to emphasise other issues in their reporting of the news). On its own, this announcement was depressing enough for British baseball fans, whose morale had been boosted by the team’s excellent showing in the European Baseball Championships back in September last year. However, the BBF’s statement made it clear that this was only the beginning of the hardship that the sport will face in Britain over the coming years.

The declassification of baseball and softball as Olympic sports came as a particularly big blow for British fans who can appreciate the impact staging these events in London in 2012 might have had for the sports in this country. Every country’s baseball set-up will be hit by the subsequent reduction in funding, but Britain will probably feel the pinch more than anyone due to the obvious desire of the authorities to channel all funds to Olympic sports. Whether the staging of the Games is perceived as a success by the British public will be shaped partly by how well GB does in the medal table, so baseball and softball will be left out in the cold.

This poses significant challenges, but there are reasons to be optimistic for the future of baseball in Britain. MLB’s international office for Europe, Middle East and Africa is based in London and this provides Britain with a unique opportunity to work closely with the Major Leagues. BaseballSoftballUK, “the development agency for baseball and softball in the United Kingdom”, has published an international strategy for the two sports as part of their application to receive funding from the Central Council for Physical Recreation. This includes the BBF’s five long-term international aims and objectives, two of which involve Major League Baseball:

  • “To continue to encourage and inform support provided by Major League Baseball (MLB) for the promotion and development of baseball in Europe.

  • To lobby for an invitation to the Great Britain Baseball Team to participate in MLB’s World Baseball Classic in 2009 and beyond (the tournament, introduced in 2006, will take place every four years from 2009 and is the equivalent of football’s World Cup)”.

That second aim catches the eye! While baseball needs to fight to regain its place at the Olympic table (and this is also one of the BBF’s stated aims and objectives), MLB’s launch of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) in 2006 was a sign that they understand the crucial role international baseball can play in promoting the sport (and therefore MLB) and that they cannot rely on the Olympics alone to achieve this. The inaugural staging of the WBC was a resounding success and the 2009 event promises to be even better, not least because many sceptical Major Leaguers were clearly won over by the unique atmosphere created by an international competition. The idea that Great Britain could be a part of it is extremely exciting, so exciting in fact that you would be forgiven for dismissing it as fantasy so as not to be disappointed if it doesn’t happen. But the BBF has a logical and persuasive argument to support their case. The 2006 WBC included sixteen teams, two of which were the top two European sides at the time: Holland and Italy. As Great Britain won the silver medal in the 2007 European Baseball Championships, they should be the team to accompany Holland as the European representatives in 2009. Italy, Germany and Spain will undoubtedly put forward their own cases to counter this argument, but the Great Britain team appears to have a decent chance. A decision is expected in February and if Britain is successful it would really cushion the blow of missing out on the Olympic qualifier.

What benefit would British baseball gain from entry to the WBC? Simply being there will put the WBC on to the sports pages of the national newspapers and would raise the possibility of the tournament receiving some TV coverage over here. The WBC is the perfect way for British sports fans to be introduced to baseball. It’s not going to convert millions over night, but it would be a great start.

And a bit of interest in baseball during the spring of 2009 could then be followed up a year later by a spring training game or two being played in London. The NFL, NHL and NBA all visited these shores in 2007, leaving MLB as the only major North American sport not to make a direct move into the British market. This is surprising considering how proactive MLB has been in taking its product out to new audiences in recent years. The lack of a purpose built facility is clearly a factor, but it’s surely something that could be overcome with support from MLB and various interested parties in the U.K.

It’s going to be difficult for baseball to develop in Britain without much external funding, but a helping hand from MLB (who do already provide funding and support to BaseballSoftballUK) could really make a big difference. A lot of people have worked hard for many years to develop the sport at grass roots level in Britain. If these current challenging times can be embraced as a catalyst for promoting the game in new ways, baseball can continue to grow and will be in an even better position if and when baseball regains its Olympic status.

Great Britain officially withdraw from Olympic qualifier

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Rumours had been spreading for a week or so, longer if you include the initial reports that Team GB were struggling to come up with the funds to pay for the trip.  Now it has been confirmed: Great Britain has withdrawn from the final Olympic qualifier set to take place in March.  Germany will take Team GB’s place.

Having come so close to qualifying automatically via the European Championships last year, this is a bitter blow for the players who have now had their chance taken away from them through no fault of their own.  Although Team GB’s odds of making it through the qualifier were probably slim, they had fully earned the right to give it their best shot.

The official statement raises many questions about the future of the Great Britain team as we face up to the prospect of “no external funding” due to baseball’s declassification as an Olympic sport.  I’ll give the issue some thought and publish my views over the weekend.

UPDATE: The IBAF statement on this claims “among other concerns, Great Britain cited issues with player availability as to why it is unable attend the qualification tournament”.  Possibly this is due to some of the squad being involved in minor league spring training camps in the U.S.  The British statement clearly says that their withdrawal was due to “lack of funds” though.

It Ain’t Over ‘Til it’s Over by Baseball Prospectus

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“It Ain’t Over ’til it’s Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book” edited by Steven Goldman (Basic Books, 2007), 457 pages.

Baseball Prospectus are at the forefront of sabermetrics: the discipline of statistical research into baseball. With their revolutionary statistics and forthright views, it’s fair to say they are loved and loathed in equal measure (White Sox GM Kenny Williams is definitely not a fan, for a start). “Too clever by half” some will argue, but their love of the game and desire to challenge orthodox thinking means that they are always worth reading.

“It Ain’t Over …” is the third book they have published, alongside their popular BP Annual which has been running since 1996. It takes a look at the thirteen best pennant races in history. As you would expect, their list was not compiled by considering subjective opinion, but is a product of their own statistical evaluations. The resulting list ranges from the 1908 National League to the 2003 NL Central battle.

Each chapter looks at one of these pennant races in considerable detail and is then followed by an additional chapter or two looking at topics raised by the race. This enables the BP team to delve into some of the questions that are argued by baseball fans of all ages: do deadline deals ever really make a difference? Has the wild card made for a more competitive and exciting competition? What are the relative merits of so-called ‘small-ball’ style of play versus ‘waiting for the three-run homer’?

All of these and more are discussed, providing solid arguments while leaving things open for the reader to make up their own mind.

Although a specific chapter isn’t devoted to it, the substantial issue of racial integration is also covered in various places throughout the book, not least in the first chapter recounting the story of the 1967 American League pennant race. Referred to by many as “the Impossible Dream”, it marked the Red Sox’s first pennant since 1946 and is described as being the product of “a desperately needed cultural change within the Red Sox organization”. As the last all-white baseball team, the importance of their departure from an era of “institutionalized racism” is clearly felt.

While some of the races covered may not be on everybody’s list (the 2003 NL Central wasn’t especially memorable for me), any book on the greatest pennant races has to include the 1951 National League. Arguably the most exciting of all time, it had every ingredient you could wish for. It was played out by two fierce local rivals, the New York Giants and the Brooklyn Dodgers, both of whom would, of course, take their rivalry to the West Coast a mere six years later. It involved a scarcely believable comeback (or ‘choke’ depending on your viewpoint), with the Giants making up a thirteen game deficit over their final forty-four games, followed by a three-game playoff ended by one of the most memorable moments ever witnessed at a ballpark.

The Scotsman Bobby Thomson’s pennant-winning homer, immortalised as “the shot heard ’round the world”, was dramatic enough on its own. The subsequent controversy over the Giants’ alleged sign-stealing added yet more intrigue to the tale. The race is brought to life in a chapter that typifies the approach taken throughout the majority of the book: it concentrates on the events and the characters involved, with the statistics serving as complimentary facts rather than the main focus of attention.

There is one exception to this approach. In the section on the 1984 AL West pennant race, an additional chapter delves into the question of the importance of a good start to a season. It’s an interesting topic to discuss, not least in trying to understand when it should be considered more than just a hot start and instead a strong indicator of the real ability of a team.

However, the purpose of the chapter is mainly to display the work BP have undertaken to look at the issue, resulting in the printing of equations for “projected records” and “weighting factors”. It’s the sort of thing that would leave a general baseball fan rolling their eyes, but it is fairly short (just eight pages) and such number-crunching is generally left out of the main text and inserted in the detailed “Notes” section at the back of the book instead.

All of the chapters focusing on a pennant race successfully reveal the drama of the events while also questioning what the pivotal moments may have been. If I had to pick a favourite, the final chapter would be my choice. This covers the 1944 American League, telling the unlikely story of the St Louis Brown’s triumph in the shadow of World War Two. Nate Silver provides a masterful overview of the impact that the war had on baseball, particularly explaining the various reasons why some professional athletes were not drafted for military service. As Silver states: “most men who were able to play major league baseball were doing so because of one or more severe physical limitations. It was natural selection in reverse, survival of the weakest”.

This substantial chapter firstly recounts the tale of the ’44 AL pennant race before assessing why the Browns were able to take the title by one game. What follows is BP at their best: they use their considerable talents to re-play the season with each team having their full contingent of players.

Any observer could understand that the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox would have been much stronger with players such as DiMaggio and Williams on the playing field rather than the battle field. BP are able, within reason, to show exactly how much better they would have been and what impact that would have made to the competition. It is a fascinating piece of work, highlighting just what sort of wonders the world of statistical analysis can produce.

The fact that this book is written by the Baseball Prospectus team may put some people off, but they will be missing out on an excellent read if so. This is a great example of how statistical analysis can be used to prompt and accompany some first class writing that can be enjoyed by all baseball fans, even those who are not overly obsessed with statistics.

Have you read “It Ain’t Over ’til it’s Over”? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below. Can you recommend any other similar books? If so, let us know.

Tulo to stay in Colorado

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The NL Rookie of the Year voters faced a difficult decision at the end of last season. Both Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki made strong cases to receive the award and it was difficult to choose between them. Ultimately, Braun ended up with the honour and in retrospect that seems a fair result.

Apart from his ROY trophy, the Milwaukee youngster came out of 2007 relatively empty-handed. Firstly, his efforts were not enough to save the Brew Crew from a demoralising collapse that enabled the Cubs to take the NL Central crown from their grasp. More recently, he has had to suffer the indignity of being moved from his preferred fielding position, following his much-highlighted struggles at the hot corner (committing twenty-six errors will tend to get you noticed).

Tulowitzki on the other hand may well have been disappointed at not adding the ROY award to his resume, but he can hardly complain at how his first year panned out. An NLCS ring accompanied by a World Series appearance is not bad going in your rookie season. According to reports, he will be adding to that World Series bonus as well.

MLB.com states that, pending a physical, Tulo will sign a six-year contract with the Rockies that will guarantee him $30 million. Any lingering thoughts that he might not have made the right career move can be well and truly put to rest!

This deal makes complete sense for the Colorado Rockies. While Tulo still had at least one year before he became arbitration eligible (he probably would have become a ‘Super Two’ player at the end of the coming season), agreeing to this deal will almost certainly save them some money over the next five years. Add in the fact that they’ve bought his first potential year of free agency and it begins to look like a real bargain. The Rockies can plan ahead without worrying about the potential disruption (both financial and emotional) that arbitration can bring. Ryan Howard, for example, looked to have his contract on his mind at the beginning of last season and he and the Phillies are a not insignificant $3 million apart in their valuation this year (all this after failing to agree a similar multi-year deal).

It’s been a fairly quiet off-season in Denver, but put this deal together with the extensions agreed with Matt Holliday, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook, and it’s clear that the Rockies are building a strong core of players to build around for several seasons to come. Although their team’s showing in the Fall Classic may have been a disappointment, fans in Colorado have good reason to hope that they won’t have to wait too long for another shot at winning their first World Series title.

Early start to the season

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The marquee opener to the 2008 season sees the Atlanta Braves facing the Nationals in the first game at Washington’s new stadium on Sunday 30 March. This will be a Sunday Night game on ESPN (which means Jon Miller – hooray! – and Joe Morgan – boo!) and screened live on Five, and probably also on NASN, here in the U.K in the early hours of Monday 31st. After three seasons in rented accommodation, this will mark the real start to baseball’s return to the U.S. capital.

However, the regular season actually kicks-off in Japan, with the Red Sox playing two games against the Oakland A’s. These take place on Tuesday 25th and Wednesday 26th of March . Due to the time difference, New Englanders will have to wake up early for their World Series winning heroes. Both games are scheduled for a 06.07 a.m. start, Boston time (19.07 in Japan). That means the two MLB opening games from Japan will begin at 10.07 a.m. for us Brits.

The games come just after the Easter Bank Holiday, so MLB.TV subscribers might want to book up a longer Easter break and take in the games live. Rest assured there’s nothing wrong in planning leave from work around the baseball season, despite what your colleagues may say!

The Tokyo Dome, home of the Yomiuri Giants, will be the venue for both games and they should be a fitting way to begin another exciting season. After months of inaction, any game would catch the attention, but seeing Matsuzaka and Okajima head back to their homeland as defending champs should make for quite a spectacle. Matsuzaka is likely to start one of the two games and it’s possible that Josh Beckett, who would otherwise be the opening day starter, will be shifted to the second game so that Dice-K can make the starring role.

As for Oakland’s starter, it’s probably going to be Joe Blanton but keep a check on the hot stove as very few players on the A’s roster are immune from Billy Beane’s rebuilding project. The latest version of Beane’s ‘Island of Misfit Toys’ may pose a sterner test to the knowledgeable Japanese crowd than they do to the Red Sox on the field (even A’s fans might struggle to recognise some of their players at this rate). But that’s just the pessimistic Oakland fan in me writing. If MLB fans know anything, it’s that any team can beat another on any given day. The World Series champs will be expecting a victorious start to the season, with the locals cheering on their favourite sons. The A’s will be intent on crashing the party and proving the naysayers wrong, if only for a few days.

Sounds like the makings of two great games of baseball. Put 10.07 on Tuesday 25 March in your diaries and start counting down the days.

Baseball Field Guide by Dan Formosa and Paul Hamburger

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“Baseball Field Guide: An in-depth illustrated guide to the complete rules of baseball” by Dan Formosa and Paul Hamburger, (Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2006), 240 pages.

Baseball is a sport governed by a myriad of rules. Dan Formosa and Paul Hamburger’s attempt to to provide a user-friendly guide to them for players and spectators alike is therefore much welcomed.

“Baseball Field Guide” takes its influence from the official rules by dividing things up into categories involving the main actions on a field (pitching, batting, running, fielding, umpiring, managing/coaching), surrounded by chapters on topics such as “equipment” and the role of the Official Scorer.

The quality of this type of book can generally be determined by two factors: is it comprehensive and is it easy to use? While it is doubtful that any book could cover every single permutation that could take place in and around a baseball game, this one comes about as close as possible to achieving it. Having spent a couple of months referring to the book, no obvious omissions have become apparent and the many subjects covered are done so intelligently. The two pages on the balk rule, infamously misunderstood by even some lifelong baseball fans and some players, are a great case in point. An overview of the rule is given alongside a brief explanation of each of the eleven ways a balk can be committed, followed by a more detailed explanation of each.

As for ease of use, this is where the authors’ expertise comes to the fore. Both Formosa and Hamburger’s background is in design and it really shows. Each chapter begins with a quick summary of every topic covered to aid searching. While every page contains a lot of information, the clean layout means that they never look cluttered or confusing. Flicking through the book, it feels as if the authors have concentrated on making sure the amount of detail is well-balanced. If a simple explanation is sufficient, that’s what they provide. If an in-game example would be useful to explain a point, a well-chosen example is on hand. The illustrations are perfect both in terms of their design and their use as well. The many excellent diagrams, accompanied by the occasional photo, genuinely help you to understand the written text where some extra help may be needed. If the words alone do the job, that’s all you get.

A printed guide to the rules is always at risk of becoming out-of-date should the rules undergo any changes. These are rare in MLB, but unfortunately for Formosa and Hamburger the first rule changes in eleven years took place prior to the 2007 season. Thankfully, they were fairly minor and the only noticeable “error” that now exists is on page 191 where the book states that if a MLB “regulation game” is suspended with the score tied after the fifth inning, the game is called a tie (under the new rules, the game will be picked up from where it ended on another day unless the two teams are not scheduled to meet again that season).

For complete baseball beginners, a more deliberate “how to” style book might be a better first port-of-call to learn the basics of the game. In every other case, this is an excellent reference book which you will be reaching for from the shelf on a regular basis. Even many established fans will be surprised at how often a rule they thought they completely understood is actually slightly more complex than they realised. Regardless of your baseball experience, this book will improve your knowledge of the rules and regulations and is therefore highly recommended.

Have you read “Baseball Field Guide”? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below. Can you recommend any other similar books? If so, let us know.

Cleveland’s Progressive Field

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Another day, another post on a depressing trend in baseball that leaves traditionalists reminiscing about purer times. But while Congress may be concentrating on performance enhancing drugs, my focus is on the dreaded world of corporate branding.

The Cleveland Indians are the latest team to make baseball fans grit their teeth every time they talk about a game taking place at their ballpark. Farewell Jacobs Field, hello Progressive Field.

Hmm, maybe it will grow on me?

Cleveland fans are generally unhappy with the change and it’s not hard to see why. Jacobs Field had a certain ring to it and, like all good names, it could be shortened to something even better: the Jake. Progressive Field is not the worst name they could have ended up with, but I don’t share Indians President Paul Dolan’s opinion that it is “a great name”. How can it be when it means that your stadium, your cathedral-like venue where crowds gather with hopes of their baseball fan dreams coming true, is named after a car insurance firm?

At least it’s not Sheila’s Wheels!

From Dolan’s perspective, he can claim it’s a great name because whenever he has any doubts, he can think of the $3.6 million his franchise will pocket annually for the next sixteen years (approximately $57.6 million, or £30 million, in total).

Whether fans of the Tribe will take to the name is another matter. Re-naming a current stadium always makes it that much harder for the new name to stick. No doubt many will still be speaking about the Jake for several years to come. This is partly due to familiarity and partly due to stubbornness.

Such problems don’t exist when a new ballpark rises from the ground; there is no sentimentality to cling on to. Mets Fans will have little choice but to call their new home Citi Field when they move in for the 2009 season. And it certainly makes even more sense for a team to agree such a deal when they are in the position of financing a new stadium. Citi Group Inc will reportedly pay the Mets $20m annually for twenty years to put their name above the stadium door (and on every other spare piece of wall no doubt). Quite simply, the Mets would be mad to turn that sort of investment down.

Their cross-town rivals don’t seem to mind so much. As things stand right now, the Yankees will still be playing in a ‘Yankees Stadium’ in 2009, although few would be surprised if that situation changes.

No, it’s just something we have to accept. There’s too much money at stake for most teams to defiantly tie themselves to tradition. All a baseball fan can hope for is that the Front Office uses the money to strengthen the team rather than the owner’s coffers.

So long as C.C. Sabathia is pitching for them over the next six or seven years, Indians fans won’t care what their ballpark is called.