Monthly Archives: September 2011

Miraculous end to the 2011 Major League regular season

MlbHlSqIt’s just gone seven a.m. and while I’m tired I know there is little chance that I will be able to fall asleep again any time soon.

My head is still spinning from the most incredible end to an MLB regular season you could imagine.  The lack of sleep isn’t helping with my futile attempt to take it all in, but even if I was wide awake, I would still be shaking my head with disbelief and wondering if this has really happened.

In the early hours of Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays somehow snatched the American League Wild Card from the Boston Red Sox. 

At approximately 3 a.m. BST, the Rays were all but finished.  The Red Sox led the Baltimore Orioles 3-2, while the Rays trailed 7-0 to the New York Yankees.  As rain stopped play in Baltimore, the Red Sox were able to sit and watch as their potentially devastating September slide appeared to be coming to a happy conclusion. 

It was also looking more hopeful for the Atlanta Braves.  They had joined the Red Sox in tossing away a healthy Wild Card lead over recent weeks.  Although the St. Louis Cardinals, their rivals for the NL Wild Card, were on their way to a comfortable win over the Houston Astros, Atlanta were leading the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2.  It looked as though the two teams would end the regular season with the same win-loss record, setting up a single-game showdown on Thursday.

Gradually, these likely scenarios were unravelled.

The Braves’ Craig Kimbrel coughed up their lead in the ninth inning to take the game into extras. Meanwhile the Rays were mounting a rally in the bottom of the eighth inning.  Three runs had crossed the plate before Evan Longoria hit a three-run homer at approximately 3.20 a.m. to bring the Rays within one run.  Twenty minutes later, that outburst was looking like a gallant but ultimately futile attempt to rescue their Wild Card dreams. 

The Rays were down to their final strike when Dan Johnson hit a line drive down the left-field line that narrowly cleared the fence to tie the game at 7-7.  Maybe it would be their night after all?  Continue reading

Wild Card races going down to the wire: Part Two

MlbHlSqWednesday is the final scheduled day of the 2011 MLB regular season and it is set to be a thriller.

The excitement can be summed up simply by looking at the Wild Card standings after Tuesday’s games. 

In the American League, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays both have 90-71 win-loss records. In the National League, the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals both have 89-72 records.

The teams could not be separated in their respective Wild Card race after 161 games.  We will find out in the early hours of Thursday UK time if they could be separated after 162. 

If not, we will have a single-game showdown on Thursday night to look forward to, although it would probably be best not to be too concerned about that scenario just yet. Recent events have taught us not to get ahead of ourselves. 

One team certain to not be thinking too far ahead are the Atlanta Braves.  They were never in their game against the Phillies on Tuesday, ultimately losing 7-1.  The one positive on the night came in the early stages of the Cardinals’ game against the Houston Astros.  The Astros took an early 5-0 lead and gave the Braves hope that their destiny would still be in their own hands on Wednesday.

Those hopes were still alive despite the Cardinals levelling the game with a five-run fourth inning, as the Astros took a 6-5 lead in the fifth inning.  That could have been a fatal blow for St. Louis, but they fought back again and won the game 13-6. 

On the face of it, that result would seem to have spun the NL Wild Card around 180 degrees.  Atlanta were in the driving seat, but not anymore. The Braves are on a four-game losing streak and are facing the team with the best record in MLB, while the Cardinals can take forward the confidence from a stunning come-from-behind victory into a final day game against the team with the worst record in MLB. 

In the American League, the Rays and Red Sox finished up where they had started prior to Tuesday’s games.  Continue reading

Wild Card races going down to the wire

MlbHlSq160 games played, 2 more to go. Fans of the Braves, Cardinals, Rays and Red Sox are being put through the wringer by their teams and the tension could be at its height on Tuesday night in the States.

The results from Monday’s games have left the Red Sox and Rays locked together in the American League Wild Card race, while the Braves hold a one-game lead in the National League over the Cardinals.

Atlanta could clinch the NL Wild Card tonight with a victory accompanied by a St. Louis loss, distilling the excitement down to one league on Wednesday. 

However, it’s just as likely that the NL Wild Card will still be up for grabs, so we might yet have another full day of nervous excitement.

The MLB schedulers have inadvertently produced a fascinating climax to the season.  In both Wild Card races, we have a team ending the regular season with a series against the best team in their league, accompanied by a team playing one of the weaker sides.

In the case of the National League, the race-leading Braves are the team with potentially the toughest task. 

Atlanta are hosting the Phillies, holders of the best win-loss record in baseball this season and fuelled by a desire to enter the postseason on the back of some good performances following a recent eight-game losing streak. Their rivals in the Wild Card race, the Cardinals, are matched-up with the team with the worst record in baseball: the Washington Nationals.

Put the two cases together and logically you would expect the Cardinals to take full advantage; however we all know that sport and logic often sit at odds with one another.  Continue reading

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Two more Wild Cards?

WHGB11As so often seems to be the case, we are being treated to a grandstand finish to the MLB season.

The restructuring of the postseason back in 1995 with the introduction of Wild Cards was greeted with a healthy dose of scepticism, but in most years since we have been entertained royally as  the regular season has been played out.

Prior to Sunday’s games, both the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves were doing their best to keep that trend going.  Seemingly both on course for relatively comfortable postseason qualification as they entered September, the two clubs have slumped in the final month while others have piled on the pressure.

It’s made for an exciting final few days despite all six division winners being confirmed by last Friday.  Such excitement makes you wonder what impact the possible introduction of an additional Wild Card in each league will have on the competition.

It was noted in last week’s column that the provisional 2012 MLB schedule appeared to offer little room for an additional playoff round.  Since then, word has spread that it is still possible the new Wild Card round will be introduced next year.  

Reports suggest that the players will only accept an extra playoff round if that change is accompanied by a more balanced schedule, created in part by one team (almost certainly the Houston Astros) moving from the National League into the American League (and specifically into the AL West). 

The repercussions of all this will take time to be negotiated as part of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement; however it’s possible that the additional Wild Card could be added next year ahead of any other changes so long as a plan is agreed for the rest. What we do know is that the extra Wild Card will be added at some point.  Continue reading

Sunday’s early MLB games: Pressure on the Braves and Red Sox

CovHlWEFriday’s results initially appeared to have caused an important shift in the Wild Card races.  The chasing teams slipped up, increasing the cushions enjoyed by the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves.

However, yesterday’s results set us back to where we started, albeit with the games now running out for the chasing pack.

That means the final Sunday of the 2011 regular season is set to be a thrilling evening of live baseball.  All but the second game of the Red Sox-Yankees double-header will be played in daylight in North America.

All times are in BST.

18.05. Minnesota at Cleveland (Hendriks – Carmona)
18.05. Baltimore at Detroit (Matusz – Penny)
18.05. Boston at NY Yankees (Wakefield – Burnett) *ESPN America
18.35. Atlanta at Washington (Minor – Detwiler)
18.35. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Willis – McDonald)
18.40. Toronto at Tampa Bay (Cecil – Davis)
19.05. Colorado at Houston (Millwood – Harrell)
19.10. Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (Mendoza – Floyd)
19.10. Florida at Milwaukee (Nolasco – Narveson)
19.10. Philadelphia at NY Mets (Halladay – Pelfrey)
19.15. Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (Wells – Jackson)
20.05. Seattle at Texas (Furbush – Holland)
20.35. Oakland at LA Angels (Harden – Pineiro)
21.05. LA Dodgers at San Diego (Kershaw – Luebke)
21.10. San Francisco at Arizona (Lincecum – Collmenter) *ESPN America

To say this is a significant day for the Red Sox and their fans is an understatement.  After a heavy loss to the Yankees yesterday, the team goes into a double-header today with the weight of the Red Sox nation on their shoulders. 

A pessimistic Red Sox fan would think today will be the day that the inconsistent A.J. Burnett finds his best stuff and that would be the stuff of nightmares for Boston.  Their own Mr Inconsistent John Lackey is scheduled to pitch the nightcap of this double-header and if they lose the opener, Red Sox fans will not be looking forward to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays need to do their best to take advantage of the Red Sox’s situation by winning their game against the Blue Jays, while the Angels are still mathematically in the AL Wild Card race as well.

In the National League, the Atlanta Braves are playing the Red Sox’s role. The dreaded word ‘choke’ is being used more and more as Atlanta’s previously strong grip on the Wild Card has loosened to them holding on with their fingernails.

The Braves lost 4-1 against the Washington Nationals yesterday, while the St. Louis Cardinals earned a a stunning walk-off win (on a wild pitch) against the Chicago Cubs to leave them just two games behind Atlanta.  A loss for the Braves and a win for the Cards will bring that gap down to one.

The only slight disappointment of the day is that Nat Coombs and Josh Chetwynd will not be presenting any action on BBC 5 Live Sports Extra. The International Twenty20 between England and the West Indies takes precedence in the early evening, although North American sports fans can enjoy coverage of the NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears from approximately 21.30.

Saturday’s early MLB games: Wild Card races

MlbHlSqIt’s the final Saturday of the 2011 MLB regular season and the early game schedule takes us into the heart and heat of the two remaining playoff place battles.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers all clinched their respective division on Friday, leaving the two Wild Card spots as the only open slots to be decided.

All times are in BST.

18.05. Atlanta at Washington (Beachy – Wang)
18.05. Minnesota at Cleveland (Duensing – Huff)
18.10. Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (Lopez – Lohse)
18.10. Philadelphia at NY Mets (Hamels – Dickey)
21.10. Boston at NY Yankees (Lester – Garcia)
21.10. Seattle at Texas (Hernandez – Ogando)

At this stage of the season, the word that keeps coming to mind is ‘pressure’.  Continue reading

British Baseball ‘Brief’: a few links

BBBFollowing all of the great discussion in the comments from last week’s BBB, I thought I would leave this week’s column to one side so that we don’t end up with the thread becoming disjointed.

However there are a few noteworthy bits of news to bring together relating to British baseball and MLB in the UK.

Youth National Baseball Championships

First off, the National Baseball Championships at Herts did not completely mark the end of the British Baseball season. The Youth National Baseball Championships took place over the weekend just gone. Full details can be found on the BBF website.

Great Britain at the 2012 European Championships

Looking ahead to next year, Great Britain will be competing in the European Championships in the Netherlands and further details about the event have been announced this week.

The games will be staged in three cities - Rotterdam, Haarlem and Utrecht – between Friday 7 September and Sunday 16 September.  Team GB are in the same group as the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Czech Republic and Germany, so they will be involved in some very competitive games. 

Sounds like an enjoyable late summer trip to me.

Project COBB research days

While I’m on the subject of trips, new dates for the Project COBB research days were published here yesterday.

They provide a chance to contribute to the ever-growing historical archive for the domestic game, offer an enjoyable day out with like-minded British baseball fans and the perfect excuse to get out of doing the Christmas shopping.

MLB roadshow

The MLB roadshow is heading to the UK over the next two Saturdays.  It will be at Piccadilly Gardens in Manchester on Saturday 24 September and then Trafalgar Square in London Saturday 1 October.  Looks like a lot of fun for kids and adults alike

Moneyball the film

And finally, you may have noticed that the Moneyball film received it’s premiere in Oakland on Monday.

Thanks to the presence of Brad Pitt, the film will be shown over here although I suspect it might not be on a particularly long run. The UK release date is 25 November and it will be interesting to see how much, and what sort of, publicity it generates for the sport.

I’ll be wearing my A’s colours when heading along to the cinema soon after it starts showing.

2011 update: batting dominance, pitching dominance, league health, and league quality

StatisticsIn early 2009 I published a series of articles offering between-season comparisons of batters, pitchers, league quality, and league health in the British top tier, looking backwards from the 2008 season. Subsequently, I updated this for the 2009 season and for the 2010 season, and here I do the same for the season just gone. Among other things, it will be  interesting to examine the impact that the second straight expansion of the National Baseball League (this time from eight teams to ten) has had on the quality of play and the health of the circuit.

Batting dominance
For the methods, read the full article.
Despite Edwin Alcantara achieving the triple crown, he did not trouble the all-time top 10 of most dominant seasons, and neither did any other hitter in 2011.

Pitching dominance
For the methods, read the full article.
Michael Osborn collected the most wins of any pitcher in the NBL this season (seven) and also posted the most dominant season, based on rate statistics, but, once again, the top 10 was not touched.

League quality
For the methods, as well as a comparison between European leagues, read the full article.
In short, the method gives a score between 20 and 100 for the standard of baseball on the whole in the top tier each year. Since the seasons are compared on a relative scale, the addition of stats for 2011 requires a full update of the results. Data from 2006 and 2007 are not included since the stats for those seasons include a large chunk of games between top-tier and second-tier teams. The updated quality scores out of 100 are ranked as follows: 2003 – 98.3; 2004 – 80.8; 2008 – 77.9; 2005 – 54.2; 2010 – 46.6; 2009 – 39.1; 2011 – 24.3. So the season just gone, according to this assessment, was of the lowest quality since records began in 2003. In part this was down to a lot of errors being made (fielding average dipped below .900 for the first time), but with a walk being issued in almost one in every seven plate appearances, the pitching component of the quality score also took a hit. One important thing to note is that although the score for 2003 was about four times that for 2011, this does not mean that the season was of a four times higher quality. Scores are forced to sit on a scale between 20 and 100 in each category, so small differences can be magnified.

League health
For the methods, read the full article.
League health is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100, where forfeits, blowouts, and generally high run differences in games all subtract from the maximum possible score. These factors are all things likely to put players off staying in the league, and to detract from the interest of any spectators the sport might attract in Britain. Despite Mildenhall folding during the season, with 12 forfeits to their name, the 2011 season scored reasonably well on the league health score, with the 76.3 value putting it ahead of all seasons back to and including 2005. This is because games were generally quite tight, with a good number of 1-run contests and relatively few blowouts. One interested follower of the league health score made the suggestion that I should also calculate the value but without taking any Mildenhall data into account. This pushes the value just over 80, and only 2003 (with a score of 90.3) fared better over the past nine seasons.

Updated schedule for pre-Christmas Project COBB Research Days

PCRDOwing to the availability of researchers, the start of the Project COBB Research Days series has been postponed until Saturday 3 December, but the proposed Saturday 17 December is still in place, and so there will be two pre-Christmas opportunitites to meet up at Colindale, North London. The main aim will be to add another patch or two to the growing quilt of British baseball history.

With two or three BaseballGB writers going to be among the attendees, the days will also offer a chance to retire to a convivial watering hole in the afternoon to discuss British baseball, MLB, or any other hardball-related topics on your mind. With the winter drawing in, the Hot Stove will be on gas mark 6 by this stage.

Full details of the planned Research Days, and the urgency of getting to Colindale during this off-season, can be found in the original article on BaseballGB.

To sign up for either of these dates, please get in touch by leaving a comment (your email address will come through to me) or using the contact form here.

BaseballGB Fantasy League 2011: Week Twenty Four

BgbFantasyHeadlineWelcome to our weekly round-up of the BaseballGB Fantasy League competition. This is a mixed Head-2-Head league involving BGB writers and readers.
 
There are fourteen teams who pair up in different combinations each week, making for seven match-ups in any given week. The teams battle over twelve statistical categories, gaining one point for each category they win.

All the points are carried over into the season league table at the end of the weekly match-ups. The top six teams with the most points at the end of the fantasy season will go on to the playoffs during the last three weeks of September.

After 24 weeks of battling, we are now know which teams will be contesting the BaseballGB Fantasy League championship and consolation finals. Read on to find out which teams made it through the semi-finals.
 
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  R HR RBI SB AVG OPS W SV K HLD ERA WHIP Score
BD Yankees 34 8 31 0 0.31 0.93 3 2 46 1 3.9 1.37 6
Weston-Super-Sox 32 13 30 4 0.31 0.92 4 5 47 2 3.9 1.47 6
 
 
After earning week 23 off by finishing top of the standings, the Sox were back in action, defeating the Yankees on a tie break after both teams finished level at 6-6. After compiling a 14-7-3 record against the Yankees in the regular season, Kev’s Sox advanced to the finals. The Sox pitching staff took four categories thanks to two wins from McClellan and the efforts of Holland, as well as four saves from Storen. Braun, Kemp and Carlos Santana provided power and speed.
 
The Yankees had big offensive weeks from Beltran, Castro, Granderson and Cano, while the pitching staff took ERA and WHIP thanks to Cain, Strasburg, Hellickson and Nova. The result is tough on the Yankees, who have had a very impressive season, and can still claim third place in their final matchup of the season.
 
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  R HR RBI SB AVG OPS W SV K HLD ERA WHIP Score
Orpington Isotopes 34 7 24 5 0.33 0.91 4 2 40 1 2.5 1.13 8
The Wright Stuff 22 11 29 2 0.26 0.81 2 0 48 2 4.3 1.41 4
 
 
My Isotopes sprung a surprise, defeating the Stuff 8-4 thanks to a couple of pitching matchups. As both sides looked to gain extra wins and strikeouts, Joe Saunders’ defeat of Aaron Harang and Chris Carpenter getting the better of Cole Hamels on Sunday proved to be the difference in this matchup. Hosmer, Aybar and Pence all had nice weeks with the bat for my Isotopes.
 
The Stuff had power from Phillips, Longoria and Lind, while Hamels made the difference in strikeouts and Gregerson and K-Rod each had a hold.  Continue reading