Monthly Archives: January 2015

Oakland A’s: Where everything changes, but everything stays the same

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As an Oakland A’s fan, naturally I take a closer interest in the team’s dealings than the other 29 MLB clubs.

However, it’s difficult not to spend some time considering what General Manager Billy Beane has done this offseason, regardless of your team allegiance.

His latest trade, completed on Saturday, saw the A’s acquire Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar from the Tampa Bay Rays for John Jason and two prospects. The many people who depicted Oakland as a team punting 2015 for a rebuilding effort after trading away Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris and Jeff Samardzija are being well and truly proved wrong.

Which doesn’t mean that the A’s are now favourites in the AL West, but does mean that they will be an interesting team with a genuine chance of mounting a playoff push yet again. That’s a very positive position to be in bearing in mind the financial disadvantage Oakland have against many of their competitors.

The extent of the change to the batting line-up in particular is shown vividly by Roster Resource website (formerly known as MLB Depth Charts). Here’s an abbreviated version of their projected Oakland A’s 13 position players as of 11 January.

2015_01_11Oak

Eight of the thirteen are new recruits and that definitely justifies using the word ‘overhaul’ to describe how the lineup has been affected. A major change was needed after the second-half collapse in 2014, with Beane spotting earlier than most that the team was moving backwards after the 2012 and 2013 AL West titles.

To the doubters, Beane will always be rubbished so long as the team doesn’t win a World Series. Of course, winning the Fall Classic is the ultimate aim of every team, yet it is only in the emotional and sensationalist mindset that this is the only measure of success. It would be a bit like disregarding the achievements of Swansea and Southampton in recent Premier League seasons because they haven’t come close to winning the title.

‘Flags fly forever’ is the familiar baseball refrain when it comes to winning things and there’s a basic truth to that. How you see that as a fan really depends on your own perspective. Would you trade nine very long seasons of poor baseball – getting to the point each year of almost grudgingly watching the games knowing how painful and dull it will be – for one glorious season in which you win a World Series? Is that more enjoyable than watching a competitive team for, say, seven out of ten seasons irrespective of whether they actually lift the trophy at the end of one of them?

None of us get such a choice, but I do think it raises a valid general point that gets to the heart of why we support a team.

It’s part of my daily routine (if I didn’t get to watch the game live due to the time difference) that the first thing I do when I sit down with my breakfast is click on the MLB At Bat app to see if we won or lost. I know it doesn’t really matter, but you wouldn’t think it in those few seconds nervously waiting for the score to load up and the cheer or groan that the outcome involuntarily leads to.

I’d love the A’s to win another World Series, the first during my time supporting the team, yet I also know if we do the joy will only last the winter before the next season comes along and the roller-coaster begins again regardless. Champions or not, I’ll still have the same joy at Opening Day, the same anticipation for results showing up on my tablet, the same extremes of emotions from leaping in the air at an important home run to holding my head in despair at a winning position lost.

The naysayers can snipe all they like at Billy Beane, and like everyone else he makes his share of decisions that don’t pay-off, but I know more often than not that the A’s will give me reason to enjoy turning on a day-game on a British Sunday evening ahead of a long week at work ahead, or sacrificing some sleep to listen to some innings of a 3 a.m. start as the Oakland underdogs take another shot at upsetting the odds on their wealthier rivals.

The one thing I don’t want from my baseball team is for it to be dull and that’s one piece of criticism that even the most rampant Beane haters would struggle to  level at the A’s.

Everything changes, but everything stays the same for Oakland. I don’t know whether the changes are going to work, but I’m filled with the same excitement around finding out.

AL East: Off-season so far

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The Baltimore Orioles won 96 regular season games in 2014 and won the AL East division by 12 games ahead of the New York Yankees.

At first glance you might think that they didn’t need to do much to keep ahead of the pack, yet that’s not how things work in a division containing two giants (Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees), another big market team (Toronto Blue Jays) and a team that has proved more than capable of punching above its weight (Tampa Bay Rays).

The Orioles were unable to hold on to free agents Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and, so far, are yet to replace them. The only Major League addition they’ve made is bringing back Delmon Young (who can contribute, yet only in a limited way), which puts great importance on Manny Machado and Matt Wieters making quick and successful returns from the injuries that curtailed their 2014 campaigns.

The core of Baltimore’s 96-win team is still in place, but it would be surprising if they didn’t add an outfield bat before the season begins as the rest of the division isn’t sitting back.

The Boston Red Sox have responded to their disastrous 91-loss season by adding established Major League regulars in Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson. Although failing to re-sign Jon Lester was a blow, the Red Sox won a World Series in 2013 after adding some solid experienced players and they’ve made similar steps to bolster a roster with some exciting young talent (led by Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts) so that another worst to first turnaround is possible.

The Toronto Blue Jays have also been active, adding Canadian Russell Martin as a free agent and trading for Josh Donaldson from the A’s to make a formidable batting core alongside Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They appear set to go with their current mix of youth (Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison) and experience (Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey) on the pitching staff, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another hurler signed too.

The same may also be true of the New York Yankees. Max Scherzer would improve any team and, however much they may publicly distance themselves from the possibility, the Yankees are always a contender to spend on a star talent. CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka both suffered injuries in 2014 and if either reports any lingering issues when throwing in January, that could open the door to the Yankees being the team to offer Scherzer and his agent Scott Boras the big contract they are holding out for.

The Yankees have spent money on the free agent market by signing Andrew Miller to replace the departed David Robertson in the bullpen. Didi Gregorius was acquired in a trade to be the man to replace Derek Jeter at shortstop, whilst the impending return of Alex Rodriguez will be the big news when Spring Training camps begin.

The three main storylines coming out of the Tampa Bay Rays over the past few months have been about key individuals leaving. David Price was traded to Detroit during the past-season, General Manager Andrew Friedman was lured away early in the off-season by the appeal of the huge revenues to exploit at the LA Dodgers, whilst Manager Joe Maddon was also tempted away by the money and opportunities afforded by the Chicago Cubs.

The changes have continued with young outfielder Wil Myers being traded away and the recent signing of free agent Asdrubal Cabrera has prompted numerous rumours about Ben Zobrist being the next key contributor to be moved on before he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2015 season.

Amidst it all, it says a lot about the Rays that they will still be fielding a competitive team in 2015, led by an exciting young starting rotation. If everything clicks, including a return to form by Evan Longoria, then the Rays should not be counted out despite once again having an offseason that will not immediately gain much attention.

AL Central: Off-season so far

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The Kansas City Royals were the surprise story of the 2014 season. Quite simply, every other team could look at them and think, ‘well if the Royals can finally turn things around, there’s a chance for us all’.

Repeating the feat will not be so easy though and if Royals fans thought that their World Series run would herald a new era of success, after so many years of hard times, they haven’t exactly been bowled over by the moves their Front Office has made to make that dream become a reality.

Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios have been added to the offence, signings that may have been more exciting four or five years ago, whilst Edinson Volquez has recently joined a pitching staff with a James Shields-shaped hole in it. Shields is still out there on the free agent market so a return isn’t completely out of the question; however it seems unlikely and Kansas will be looking to their younger players to replicate their late season form.

Shields is the number two starting pitcher on the market behind Max Scherzer. At some point over the next few weeks we will find out if the Detroit Tigers’ owner Mike Ilitch does delve into his sizeable coffers once again, this time to bring Scherzer back.

That seems unlikely considering the annual salaries they are already committed to with Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and the re-signed Victor Martinez over the next four years (see the payroll commitment spreadsheet on the Tigers’ page at Cot’s Baseball Contracts), but if they don’t feel they can keep hold of David Price before he reaches free agency at the end of 2015, maybe they will stretch to a fourth big contract. The Tigers have added Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene to the rotation already, whilst trading away Rick Porcello to acquire outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from Boston.

The Cleveland Indians have been quiet so far this off-season, just adding Brandon Moss and Gavin Floyd, and are banking on their good core of young(ish) players to be backed by returns to form by 2012/13 offseason free agent signings Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, there is a new manager at the helm in Paul Molitor after Ron Gardenhire’s 13-year spell with the team was brought to an end. The Twins were not expected to be too active this off-season, biding their time as young players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano (both hampered by lengthy injuries in 2014) make their way through the Minor Leagues. They have brought back veteran outfielder Torii Hunter, signed Ervin Santana as a free agent and agreed a contract extension with Phil Hughes, who was a terrific signing for the team last winter.

All of which leaves us with by far the busiest team in the division and one of the most active across the Majors. The Chicago White Sox have added players to the batting lineup, starting rotation and bullpen (as noted recently) and how well they mesh together in 2015 will be one of the factors in determining if the Royals’ World Series appearance was the start of a play-off run or just a one-and-done affair.

AL West: Off-season so far

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The AL West is yet another division where the reigning champions have been quiet so far this off-season.

The LA Angels have only completed a few minor deals (bringing in Matt Joyce, acquiring young pitcher Andrew Heaney) and, with significant commitments to the likes of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton already on the books, their primary plan for 2015 is to rely on those who helped them to reach the postseason in 2014.

The Texas Rangers also haven’t done very much, yet they had a disastrous 2014 in which they lost 95 games and parted company with manager Ron Washington. Those losses were largely a consequence of terrible bad luck with injuries, highlighted by their new recruit Prince Fielder. He had played in 1283 of 1296 regular season games in his first eight full seasons as a Major Leaguer before missing 120 games in his first year with Texas due to a neck injury.

They’ve made a handy addition by trading for Ross Detwiler on the cheap and the Rangers will simply cross their fingers for better health in 2015 and see where that takes them. There’s a lengthy list of players that they need to come back fit and strong so it would be a stretch to predict them to be back in the postseason hunt just yet, whilst their state neighbours the Houston Astros also look to be too far out even though they are firmly on an upward curve back to contending in the next few years.

They have added Jed Lowrie as a placeholder for their elite shortstop prospect Carlos Correa and good bullpen arms in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek who can help to stop wins slipping away in the short term and then most likely be dealt to a contender down the line.

That leaves the Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners as potential Angel catchers.

The Oakland A’s reached for the stars in 2014. After surveying the wreckage following the crash-landing, General Manager Billy Beane could have attempted some patch repairs or ditched the whole thing and started again. True to unpredictable form, the A’s have taken neither course.

Whilst free agents like Jon Lester left with no hint of a potential return, other established players like Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss and Derek Norris have been traded away. In their place have come Brett Lawrie, Billy Butler, Ike Davis, Marcus Semien and a number of players who could contribute in some form during 2015 and beyond.

In short, it will be a quite different team in 2015, but not in the sense of a rebuilding job. There are plenty of ‘ifs’ in the equation, yet if enough of those ifs (Brett Lawrie being healthy, Billy Butler recovering from a down season, Drew Pomeranz grabbing a rotation spot and building on the good points of his 2014 campaign etc) come through then a Wild Card run is not out of the question.

As for the Mariners, after acquiring a true star in Robinson Cano over the previous off-season, they’ve gone for a less-substantial version this year in slugger Nelson Cruz. The M’s needed extra thump in their lineup and Cruz will give them that, although his four-year, $57m contract is going to be a painful pill to swallow in 2017 and 2018.

They weren’t far off a Wild Card in 2014 and so they can be in the mix again in 2015; however a glimpse at their roster does raise questions about their depth of talent. If James Paxton and Taijuan Walker come good, perhaps with someone like Mike Zunino or Dustin Ackley taking a step forward with the bat too, then they could be in business.

If they really want to capitalise on their strong core of Cano, Cruz, Kyle Seager, Felix Hernandez and Hiashi Iwakuma in 2015 though, signing another good Major Leaguer or two would be wise and they’ve taken one step towards that over the past week by trading for outfielder Seth Smith. We’ll see if the M’s Front Office can make further improvements over the next couple of months.

 

NL East: Off-season so far

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Where in the NL West and Central we saw teams grabbing headlines trying to get back into contention, in the East you can’t start anywhere else than looking at a team that has done precious little this off-season.

The Washington Nationals’ roster is very similar today to how they ended the 2014 season – minus Adam LaRoche who has joined the Chicago White Sox – and whilst that makes for a dull off-season, it doesn’t change the fact that the Nationals were the class of the division last year and remain so.

The Miami Marlins made plenty of noise in signing Giancarlo Stanton to a monumental contract extension, yet that didn’t improve the team in itself as he already figured to be a part of their 2015 team regardless.

The focus from there was on the moves that the Marlins were promising to make to show that they were committed to winning with their homegrown star. They have been active – bringing in Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Michael Morse, Martin Prado and possibly Dan Haren, if the latter does agree to relocate from the west coast – although they are coming from a long way back so it remains to be seen if they have truly put themselves in the Wild Card hunt.

The New York Mets entered the off-season in a slightly similar position whereby they were starting from a non-contending 2014 season, yet they have a group of talented young players, including Matt Harvey returning after missing all of 2014 through injury, that looked like they might be an outside bet to leap forward with a few key additions. Unfortunately for Mets fans, the only real addition they have made is signing veteran outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who may not prove to be a positive addition at all.

They should be improved if their current players stay out on the field, yet that only makes their unwillingness to push the team forward with a bold position player signing or two all the more frustrating. Rumours about potential impact trade targets – Troy Tulowitzki being the most frequent name mentioned – continue to circulate, but recent history doesn’t offer much reason to believe the Mets are on the verge of making such a deal.

If ‘frustrating’ is a good word for the Mets, what one should we choose to sum up the Atlanta Braves? Pitching injuries have hit them hard over the past year or so and now, having traded away Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, they look like a team treading water in the mid-pack despite having a good core of players.

Their move to a new ballpark for the 2017 season seems to be the focus and despite adding Shelby Miller and Nick Markakis so far this off-season, their approach for the next two seasons appears to be one of hoping to sneak a Wild Card if they can without pushing the boat out, rather than really going for it or taking the alternative stance and trading away several more established players (Craig Kimbrel being the obvious next candidate) to focus purely on the 2017 team.

The Philadelphia Phillies do at last appear to be looking to the future rather than desperately clinging onto the successful 2007-2011 period, with Jimmy Rollins being traded to the LA Dodgers. The problem the Phillies have is that the rebuild should have started two years ago, meaning the only really valuable player they have left to trade (excluding Chase Utley, who is still playing well but can block any trade and, by all accounts, wants to see out his career in Philadelphia) is Cole Hamels. Getting that trade right will be crucial for the pace at which they can get back to contention. The 2015 season is undoubtedly a write-off already and 2016-2017 might not be great either.

NL Central: Off-season so far

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Just as the San Diego Padres have made a splash in the NL West, it’s a team that was nowhere near contending in the NL Central in 2014 that has made the most noise in the off-season so far.

The Chicago Cubs have added a high-profile manager in Joe Maddon, a top-shelf free agent pitcher in Jon Lester, and some other useful players (Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero) to their batch of young players and generated a mountain of expectation for 2015.

However, history has shown that ‘winning the off-season’ doesn’t guarantee you will win much when the games come around. Although all teams start on 0-0 in a new campaign, that doesn’t mean the previous season counts for nothing. The Cubs have made eye-catching moves, but they did lose 89 games in 2014.

In contrast the reigning champions the St. Louis Cardinals haven’t made much of a splash, the main roster move being the trade for Jason Heyward in part in response to the tragic death of Oscar Taveras. Yet this was a team that won 90 games in 2014 and whilst players do get older (to state the obvious), this isn’t a roster chock-full with players in their mid-thirties that could all be about to get injured or have poor seasons.

The Pittsburgh Pirates also haven’t done a whole lot after finishing two games behind the Cards. Francisco Liriano has been re-signed and A.J. Burnett is on his way back after a year in Philadelphia, but otherwise the roster is essentially as it was in 2014 minus the not inconsiderable loss of catcher Russell Martin, who has joined the Toronto Blue Jays.

Putting the Milwaukee Brewers to one side (Adam Lind being the only addition to a middling 2014 team) and the Cincinnati Reds in the ‘ who knows’ box (traded away Mat Latos, but still have some quality players), that does create space for the Cubs to make a charge, emboldened by a wave of optimism and perhaps a couple of the young prospects dazzling in their first full year.

As things stand right now, the Cardinals and Pirates still lead the way without having made signings that clearly improve them from 2014. Some strong individual performances (Michael Wacha returning to health and form, for instance) would keep the Cubs at bay, yet so far it’s still possible that either one or both could fall back just enough to give Chicago a sniff.

NL West: Off-season so far

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Now that the calendar has moved from 2014 to 2015, we’re past the mid off-season hump and it’s downhill all the way towards Spring Training games in March and the MLB regular season getting underway at the start of April.

That makes it a good time to review where all the teams are in terms of their off-season recruits and what they may be looking to do over the next six or seven weeks before teams report back to their Spring Training camps.

I’ll be looking at each division in turn over the next week, starting with the home of the reigning World Series champions.

The story of the NL West offseason so far begins with the surprising San Diego Padres.

Back in November most rumours surrounding the Padres concerned their leading three starting pitchers – Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy – and the potential that one or more might be traded away.

Instead, San Diego has decided to add rather than subtract by completely revamping their outfield through trading for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers. Whether they have done enough to push their way into Wild Card contention remains to be seen, but it’s great to see another team going for it rather than dreaming of a better year that may take a long time to come.

The Padres’ pursuit of a playoff place would be helped by the LA Dodgers and San Francisco Giants taking a step back. The Boston Red Sox have done their best to help by taking away Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval as free agent signings and in the case of the Giants the loss of the Kung Fu Panda may hurt the most.

Sandoval’s overall contributions haven’t really matched his lofty star status forged by postseason exploits and his position as a fan favourite; however replacing him with the underwhelming Casey McGehee isn’t a good start and that comes as part of a disappointing offseason so far, highlighted by the failed pursuit of Jon Lester.

The Dodgers meanwhile have had a shake-up in the Front Office and on their Major League roster, with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick now manning the middle infield, Yasmani Grandal taking over catching duties and Brandon McCarthy joining the rotation. They haven’t made a glamour move or significantly improved what was already a talented roster, but they have freshened things up whilst giving themselves a bit of flexibility (such as trading Kemp to allow top prospect Joc Pederson to take over in centrefield) so that they remain the best team in the division.

The Giants still have plenty of talent and experience too, yet so far judging their offseason – and adding in their now traditional World Series swoon – you would give the Padres a fighting chance at grabbing second place and a potential Wild Card.

Colorado are still stuck in limbo with the too-often-injured Troy Tulowtizki and Carlos Gonzalez, whilst Arizona have made managerial changes (on the field and at General Manager level) and moves on the margins, so that both teams look set to battle for the fourth and fifth spots. Watching how the D-Backs’ new Cuban recruit Yasmany Thomas gets on will be the main sub-plot.

Above them, the main thing to look for over the next couple of months is what the Giants do, if we accept that the Padres have probably finished their main moves and the Dodgers will tinker to help cement first place. Adding another impact starter would really help the Giants and that remains a possibility with the likes of Max Scherzer and James Shields on the market.