Monthly Archives: January 2018

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Brewers, Hoffman and more

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January is almost over and whilst wishing away months isn’t the best approach to life, it’s understandable with the first of the year.

It normally throws up bad weather and travel problems as well as keeping you in the gloom of days beginning with going to work in the dark and then coming home in the dark too.

But most of all it doesn’t offer much baseball, other than some glimmers of light from places like Australia.

Once we cross over into February we’ll be in the month that MLB.TV prices are announced, teams start reporting back to their Spring Training camps and this year even will be the first month when teams start playing their Grapefruit/Cactus League schedules.

So long January, there’s baseball to be getting on with.

Milwaukee making moves

If you had the Milwaukee Brewers down as the team to get the Hot Stove bubbling again you were looking pretty smart on Thursday.

The Brewers not only revamped their outfield by signing Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, they made the NL Central and Wild Card race a considerably more exciting prospect.

Milwaukee surprisingly spent 60 days at the top of the NL Central last season before the Cubs predictably nudged past at the end of July.  Their second-placed finish ahead of the St Louis Cardinals paled against the similarly surprising Minnesota Twins winning an AL Wild Card at first glance, yet the Brewers finished a win ahead of the Twins (86 to 85) and fell victim to a higher level of competition for the second NL Wild Card than was needed in the AL last year.

The lengthy loss of starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson to a shoulder injury put a dampener on the end of the Brewers’ 2017 and initially affected their hopes for 2018, but the team haven’t let that hold them back.

It’s always great to see a smaller market team such as the Brewers coming out of a building phase with some quality young players and then having a go for it. The excitement of their 2008 season when they traded for CC Sabathia mid-season and just fell short in the NLDS to eventual World Series champs the Philadelphia Phillies is still fresh in the memory – so much so that it was a bit of a shock to find it was a full ten years ago when looking up the details.

They pulled off another big trade in December 2010 when they acquired Zack Greinke from the Royals and then made it to the NLCS in 2011, losing 4-2 to the Cardinals.  Lorenzo Cain was one of the players the Brewers traded away in that deal, which makes his return as a free agent all the more special. Milwaukee didn’t do badly out of that trade by any stretch of the imagination, yet their fans still would have watched Cain – as well as Alcides Escobar – win a World Series with the Royals and think of what might have been.

The same may happen with Lewis Brinson, the talented young outfielder who highlighted the package they sent to the Miami Marlins for Yelich.  However, largely gone are the days when you could swing a lopsided trade for a quality Major Leaguer like Yelich.  If you want to get someone good, you have to give up a good package to do it.

The Brewers judge that they have a shot at the NL Wild Card over the next few years and are doing exactly the right thing by making a group of deals – another one or two may well be forthcoming giving their outfield logjam – rather than just making one addition and stopping there.  There’s no guarantee it will work, but it’s increasingly feeling like some Front Offices are using the lack of any guarantees – and therefore the potential for fingers to be pointed in their direction at a trade or free agent signing going wrong – as a reason to merely tinker around the edges.

You can’t get relegated in MLB so the worst that can happen is things don’t pan out, you trade some players a couple of years down the line and build again.  I love what the Brewers are doing and will continue to hold that view regardless of whether it works out for them over the next few seasons.

Hall of Fame results

Although Trevor Hoffman ended his MLB career with a two-year stop in Milwaukee, everything thinks of him as a San Diego Padre.  Few in North America would link him to Great Britain either, but we had a personal reason to cheer his election to America’s National Baseball Hall of Fame this week alongside Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Vladimir Guerrero.

Hoffman was part of the 2016 Great Britain World Baseball Classic coaching staff and you won’t find anyone involved in the national programme saying anything other than great things about his contributions.

I started watching baseball in 1998, so I have a strong connection to the excellent Padres team of that year – Tony Gwynn, Greg Vaughn, Ken Caminiti, Kevin Brown, Andy Ashby etc – that was so ruthlessly swept aside in the World Series by a New York Yankees team that ranks as one of the greatest of all time.

Hoffman only pitched in one game during the Fall Classic, taking the loss in Game Three, and that gets to the heart of the hardcore stattos being unimpressed by his election to Cooperstown. Hoffman was a closer who racked up huge numbers of saves, a role and a statistic that many analysts put little store in nowadays when evaluating performance.

I understand the argument, yet it doesn’t take into account the important point that the Hall of Fame is not simply determined by who were statistically the greatest players, otherwise there would be no point in deciding election by a vote.  It is there to recognise historic and memorable contributions to the game.  During the era in which he played, I always saw Hoffman and Mariano Rivera – who few would argue against being a first-ballot election next year – as consistently being the two leading lights in their role as closer.

To say saves didn’t matter, and that Hoffman being the first ever player to reach 500 then 600 count for nothing, has an analytical validity but doesn’t reflect how the vast majority of baseball fans enjoyed his career at the time.  It’s a personal choice for someone to disregard that, yet it’s also a personal choice to decide to take that into account.

Hoffman always stood out to me in part because any appearance or reference to him always led to Baseball on 5 presenter Jonny Gould mentioning that the pitcher’s mother was British. We don’t have all that many links to Major Leaguers, so that always made him a player to watch out for even if he wasn’t on your own team.

Now we can say we have a direct GB link to Cooperstown. I wonder if there will be a Union Flag or two at the ceremony this summer?

The Gouldfish Hall of Fame show?

Given the ever-present Chipper Jones figure that Braves-fan Gould ensured was always on the Baseball on 5 desk, the Hall of Fame announcement sparked the first time this year, and far from the last, that I thought of their MLB coverage with a smile.

Maybe Josh Chetwynd and Dave Lengel can convince their old pal to do a special one-off podcast for the Cooperstown weekend?!

GB pitcher signs with the Cubs

Further on the Great Britain theme, Michael Roth – member of the Great Britain 2012 and 2016 World Baseball Classic teams and the 2014 European Championships – has signed a Minor League deal with the Chicago Cubs.

The former College World Series hero for South Carolina has never quite kept hold of a Major League job in short Big League spells with the Angels and Rangers.  He pitched in Triple-A last year for the Sacramento River Cats (Giants) and Durham Bulls (Rays) and likely will be stationed at that level with the Iowa Cubs this season.

Roth qualifies for the GB squad by virtue of his mother being British. His GB stats can be found in the Project Cobb archive.

Hardball Times Annual -free to download

I had been searching for news on the 2018 Hardball Times Annual for a while, not finding either the new edition available anywhere on the usual book websites or anything on Fangraphs/Hardball Times to say the annual has ceased to be.

It turns out that the Annual is still alive and well but is now being released digitally.  And for completely free!

I’ve reviewed the 2010 and 2011 editions in the past – I think I stopped reviewing them just because they are always great so wasn’t much more to say – and a quick check of my baseball book shelves shows that I’ve been buying it consistently since 2006.  You really can’t beat it for a strong collection of baseball writing, from reviewing the previous season to research articles, history and – new for this year – a baseball fiction section.

Honestly, I always prefer a physical book but if this is the best way to keep the annual going then that’s fine with me. It’s well worth downloading and diving into during February.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Unhappy Pirates fans, Unhappy players, Happy MLBTV fans

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We’re another week closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training camp and, other than a few minor deals, we still haven’t seen much movement on the free agent market.

The continued deadlock is prompting plenty of discussion.  One comment included in a recent Jon Heyman article (attributed to a “player-linked person”, a phrase that tickles me more than it should) made me think more than most:

“MLB has done a good job convincing fan bases not to demand winning … Fans used to only care about winning. Now they say, “Is (the player/deal) worth it?”.

The juxtaposition of that sentiment with the fevered nature of the football January transfer window is striking.  Football fans always want their club to spend money (“if we could just sign one more striker …”) and normally only object to a rumoured deal if they think they should be buying someone better instead (i.e. someone costing more money).

We have to set that in the context of a pyramid league structure in which the threat of relegation means every team has a reason to spend – stoking the market as a result – but the potential for relegation also creates a risk of financial devastation (Portsmouth FC would be a good example for any Americans not familiar with such tales).

Such a risk doesn’t exist in MLB.

Every team has a budget and a bad decision or two on a free agent contract can hamper efforts to build and/or maintain a competitive roster for smaller market teams. No fan wants to see their team chucking money away on bad players. However, I’m beginning to wonder if some fans are increasingly more interested in how their team stacks up in the immediate analysis awards (praised for a good free agent deal, hammered for prospect package given up in a trade etc) than what the transaction will could their team regardless of the cost to the owners.

In 2018 the small market Tampa Bay Rays can afford to give San Francisco $14.5m to go towards Evan Longoria’s salary when they trade him away. Every MLB team is worth hundreds of millions of dollars and every MLB owner or ownership group has huge financial resources, more than enough to cover a bad free agent contract for a few years whilst still maintaining a competitive payroll.

This is no criticism of the data-led, evidence-based conversations on transactions, but maybe there is an argument that rather than creating greater scrutiny on team spending, it’s actually giving front offices and owners an excuse not to take chances and keeping money out of the pockets of players (who ultimately are the ones generating the record levels of revenue) and keeping it in the pockets of the owners.

Pirates fans want owner to walk the plank

You can pour over advanced statistical metrics, consider future payroll commitments and analyse potential success cycles in your division all you want; whatever the facts are, for fans none of them ease the feeling in their stomach – and their heart – when they see one of their heroes sat in a press conference wearing another team’s cap for the first time.

Pittsburgh Pirates fans knew that the day was going to come when Andrew McCutchen would be suiting up for another team, yet that hasn’t made it any easier. Coming hot on the heels of Gerrit Cole being traded to the Houston Astros, McCutchen’s departure to the San Francisco Giants has landed Pittsburgh in a depression broken only by anger.

Fans can accept players leaving, but what has come out this week is the bottled-up frustration of those that feel the club’s owner Bob Nutting refused to open the purse strings between 2013 and 2015 when the team made three consecutive play-off appearances.

The team had been in the bottom four of MLB payroll for all of the nine years prior to 2013 when they rocketed up to 25th of 30, followed by 27th in 2014 (no better way to celebrate your first play-off appearance in 21 years than by reducing your competitiveness) and then the heady heights of 24th in 2015 (where they’ve stayed in the two years since).

ESPN’s Buster Olney among others has made the fair point that just a few results could have changed everything: the NLDS Game 5 decider in 2013 and then the two Wild Card game defeats that followed.  Spending money to add another player or two would have not guaranteed anything either; however nothing’s worse than feeling that your team got close and then didn’t really try to give itself the best chance of going all the way.

A petition has been started that calls for MLB to force Nutting to sell the team, but sadly that request exposes the reality of the situation.  MLB ultimately is the 30 ownership groups and unless you’re really bringing embarrassment on the game – such as ex-Dodgers owner Frank McCourt – such local angst is of no concern to them.

So long as most owners don’t do anything so rash as spend their own money to try to win – the late Mike Ilitch let that cat out of the bag more than once – they can all sit back as their assets grow in value year on year and then laugh their way to the bank when they cash in.

Pace of play

It was inevitable that further pace-of-play changes would be implemented in MLB for the 2018 season, yet it’s increasingly looking likely that they will be imposed on the players rather than as part of an agreed approach.

The most important point with it all is that those of us that regular watch baseball are not the issue here. The reason Rob Manfred wants to force these changes through is his oft-touted research that pace of play puts off casual sports fans (in the US).  In that context it seems as much about being seen to do something (‘we’ve done x,y,z to speed up the games, come and watch …’) than lopping significant time off the average game length.

I can’t say I’m greatly convinced these changes will make millions more tune into a ballgame, nor do I really see pace of play as a huge problem, but I don’t see any harm in cutting down some of the wasted time where possible.  My main issue is the hitters and pitchers that blatantly take the proverbial when it comes to getting on with their job. Effectively penalising the worst offenders, rather than implementing a blanket pitch clock, would be a better approach in my book.

I thought I’d have a look at that by doing a quick bit of rough research to look at the state of play in 2017. I used FanGraphs’ Pace statistic which is a measure of the seconds between pitches for both hitters and pitchers based on PITCHf/x timestamps, so the numbers come with the caveat that they aren’t recorded in exactly the way the proposed 20-second pitch clock would start from.

For hitters, using 100 plate appearances as the minimum criteria produced a list of 435 hitters.  The Phillies’ Cesar Hernandez and the Mets’ Amed Rosario were quickest at 20.7/20.8 seconds, with the Astros’ Marwin Gonzalez the slowest at 29.3 (not that you needed the stats to suspect he was slowest if you’ve ever watched any of his plate appearances). The median average pace number for the 435 batters was 23.6 seconds. As that’s 3 seconds above the quickest pace number, I’ve used 23.6 + 3 as a cut-off point to see how many (and who) were beyond that, what we might call an acceptable level.

26.6 seconds and above produces a list of 26 hitters (6% of the total hitters in the sample).

Player Team Pace
Marwin Gonzalez Astros 29.3
Daniel Nava Phillies 29
Odubel Herrera Phillies 28.8
Logan Morrison Rays 28.3
Jorge Alfaro Phillies 28.2
Robinson Cano Mariners 28.2
Victor Martinez Tigers 28.1
Mark Canha Athletics 28
Hanley Ramirez Red Sox 27.9
Danny Espinosa (Multiple) 27.9
Kole Calhoun Angels 27.6
Nick Castellanos Tigers 27.5
Mitch Moreland Red Sox 27.5
Alex Avila (Multiple) 27.4
Gerardo Parra Rockies 27.3
Kurt Suzuki Braves 27.2
Corey Dickerson Rays 27.1
Bryce Harper Nationals 27
Avisail Garcia White Sox 27
A.J. Pollock Diamondbacks 26.9
Jett Bandy Brewers 26.9
Ryan Braun Brewers 26.7
Christian Vazquez Red Sox 26.7
Gary Sanchez Yankees 26.6
Evan Gattis Astros 26.6
Martin Maldonado Angels 26.6

Unsurprisingly there are quite a few catchers on this list.

For pitchers I used 30 innings pitched as the minimum criteria, which produced a list of 462 pitchers. The quickest from that group was Milwaukee’s Brent Suter (17.4 seconds) and the slowest was the LA Dodgers’ Pedro Baez (30.7).  So, there’s a bigger difference in pace among pitchers than among hitters, with the pitcher median average being 23.9 (those at the figure included Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw).

When you look at the slowest pitchers one finding sticks out like a sore thumb (Rob Manfred would tell you a sore thumb caused by changing channel on the TV remote control).  Among the top 76 slowest pitchers, going down to an average of 26.3 seconds, only 7 were either predominantly starting pitchers or, in the case of Joe Biagini, made a decent number of starts.

Name Team Pace G GS
Matt Garza Brewers 27.9 24 22
Matt Andriese Rays 27.8 18 17
Sonny Gray (Multiple) 27.6 27 27
David Price Red Sox 27.1 16 11
Matt Shoemaker Angels 26.7 14 14
Vince Velasquez Phillies 26.3 15 15
Joe Biagini Blue Jays 26.3 44 18

And, yes, just as there were no surprises that Marwin Gonzalez was on the hitters’ list, David Price was a shoo-in to be on the pitchers’ one.

What you see though is that a lot of slower pitchers are relievers.  That’s no great revelation as relievers, due to the way they are used, are more likely to be deliberate with every pitch they throw; however it shows how pace of play can be affected by lots of things.  The increasing use of relievers for strategic purposes is likely but one part of that, due not only to the time taken for pitching changes and mound visits but also the more deliberate style of pitching.

Looking ahead to 2018 MLB.TV

Pace of play isn’t going to influence whether any of us are signing up for MLB.TV this year.

One of the landmark ‘baseball is coming’ moments for many of us every year is the day on which the MLB.TV subscription details are released.  MLB.com announced the packages and prices on 7 February last year, so we should expect to see the details in the next two to three weeks.

The 2017 main MLB.TV annual subscription cost $113.  We have to pay 20% VAT on top (which made it $135.59) and then factor in the dollar/pound exchange rate, so last February/March that worked out at approximately £108.  Things have turned in our favour over the past year on the dollar/pound front (as opposed to previous years of it going against us) and that same $135.59 would work out at at approximately £100, so a bit of a saving.

As part of settling a US lawsuit about TV subscriptions and blackouts in 2015/16, MLB had to agree to only increase their online subscription packages by 3% or the rate of inflation (whichever is higher, currently would be the 3%) year-on-year until 2020.

If we add 3% to the 2017 price ($113 plus $3.39, so let’s call it a US price of $116), include the VAT and take the current dollar/pound exchange rate into account then that would make for a UK cost of £102.  The team-specific subscription would be approximately £79.

We’ll have to wait for the official announcement to see quite what packages they will be selling and the price, so treat those as an educated guess for now; however, in theory the US prices should only go up a small amount and – due to the dollar/pound exchange rate – should actually work out a bit cheaper for us than a year ago.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Is the Hot Stove about to heat up?

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Compared to the weeks before it, the last seven days have been relatively busy in MLB.

None of the biggest names on the free agent market have found a new club, but there have been some free agent signings plus the deadline for salary arbitration submissions on Friday has created more certainty over payroll commitments and may well help to push the free agent and trade market on next week.

We can but hope.

Bruce to the Mets, Reed to the Twins

Two free agents came off the market with outfielder Jay Bruce reuniting with the New York Mets (after a couple of months with Cleveland) and the news on Saturday that reliever Addison Reed has agreed a deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Bruce signed a three-year, $39m contract and is the type of player who isn’t going to have people doing cartwheels on finding that their team has signed, yet is a decent experienced Major Leaguer and it turns out was available at a relatively reasonable price.

Bruce in the past has been a player who could get you some home runs but didn’t offer a huge amount of value otherwise. However, he had a good season last year combined with the Mets and Cleveland in what was his best year since 2013 with Cincinnati.  Although you may try to chalk that up to it being his ‘walk year’, FanGraphs notes that Bruce did display a new approach at the plate in 2017 and so the hope is he has made an adjustment that will continue to produce results.

The Mets are an interesting team to ponder for 2018.  Last year was nothing short of a disaster and there are so many fitness question marks over their pitching staff that it’s easy to just write them off.  You look at their roster though and you can put forward an argument that a Wild Card run might not be completely out of the question, albeit requiring a fairly long list of ‘ifs’ to work out in the Mets’ favour.

The Minnesota Twins are also a team that many seem to be overlooking.  They took everyone by surprise last season by winning an AL Wild Card in what turned out to be a somewhat weak race and so it’s understandable that there is doubt over whether they can back that up in 2018.

That shouldn’t obscure the fact that they’ve got some real talent on their roster though and Reed will certainly add to that list.  Rumours continue to swirl that the Twins are determined to add a quality free agent starter too this off-season and whilst I’d guess they will fall short in their pursuit for Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb could well fall into their price range and slot in very nicely alongside Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios.

Gerrit Cole

The Gerrit Cole trade story so far essentially goes like this:

  • He was on the verge of being traded to the Houston Astros
  • Then he wasn’t
  • He still might be
  • But he hasn’t gone anywhere yet
  • Although Buccos fans are expecting they’ve seen the last of him in their uniform

The Astros are in the best possible situation with a World Series win behind them, a talented roster in place and a strong farm system of Minor League prospects to deal from if they wish.  Whilst you could justifiably argue they don’t need much in the way of additions, other than an upgrade in the bullpen perhaps, that’s a very strong position in which to trade from.

[LATE EDIT: Cole is now an Astro!]

Arbitration explained

Friday was the deadline for salary arbitration numbers to be submitted and this prompted one reader query around quite how the MLB contract process works.  That’s one of many topics I cover in my Baseball Basics for Brits series, which I’ll be updating over the next two months. Here’s a basic guide to the MLB contract situation and how arbitration fits in.

When a player begins his MLB career he is under contract for six years, at the end of which he becomes a free agent unless he has negotiated a contract extension prior to this.

For the majority of players, during the first three years of their initial MLB contract they receive the MLB defined minimum salary.  This typically increases slightly every year. In 2018 the MLB minimum salary will be $545k (just under £400k). A team is able to pay more if they wish. If they do it tends to be by a small amount – no one wants to pay more than they have to – although slightly larger raises can be paid occasionally if the player is exceptional.  The team may still only pay them a little bit more in that situation – $100k, say – but it’s more a matter of principle than the money itself.

For years 4 to 6 the player becomes ‘arbitration eligible’.  The player is under contract with the team regardless (unless they release him) but how much they will be paid is negotiated year-to-year (again, unless the team and player agree a multi-year deal instead).

The arbitration element kicks in where the two parties can’t come to an agreement.  There is a hard deadline at which both parties must submit the figure they want – this past Friday in this year’s case – and then an independent arbitration hearing will be scheduled.  Negotiations can continue right up until the hearing and in the majority of cases the two parties will come to an agreement.

However, if they still can’t agree then the hearing takes place with both sides arguing in detail why their submitted figure is appropriate.  The main reason why parties like to avoid this situation is that ultimately it results in the team having to explain why the player isn’t as valuable as he thinks he is, which is not a particularly comfortable situation. The arbitration panel will listen to the submissions and then make a decision on which of the two figures is fair.  They can’t just split the difference or suggest something else, either the player ‘wins’ or the team does.

An important part of this process is that there is an underlying principle that a player deserves to be paid more as he gains more service time in the Majors. In other words, if a player had a downturn in performance in his fourth year, he would still get a salary raise for his fifth year, albeit not so much as he would have done had he performed better.

What this means is that salary arbitration negotiations aren’t just about the coming season, but also about future arbitration seasons as – if it ultimately goes to the arbitration panel – the main consideration will be how big a raise from his previous salary that the player deserves.

For example: Team A wants to pay Player X £5m in his fourth year, Player X wants $7m. If Team A ‘wins’ and the player still performs well then the fifth year salary might be $7.5m and the sixth year salary $9.5m.  If the player won then his salaries might go $7m, $9m and $11.5m.  So the initial case wasn’t simply about a difference of $2m but actually a difference of $5.5m.

There are some additional variations on this process, the main one of which to be aware of is that the very best players (as defined by specific criteria set out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement) become arbitration eligible a year early.  These players are known as ‘Super 2’ players.

An elephant never forgets, and neither does agent Scott Boras

One such Super 2 is the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant. Jon Heyman tweeted a message about Kris Bryant and the Cubs coming to an agreement on a one-year deal on Friday to avoid an arbitration hearing and stated that the team would like to do a multi-year deal with the player.

I’m sure they would, just as they would like to do a deal with him down the line to keep him as a Cub for years to come rather than lose him to free agency when that time potentially comes.

However, the latter point is firmly at the front of Bryant’s, and particularly his agent Scott Boras’s, mind.

Let’s not forget, the Cubs royally screwed Bryant over at the start of the 2015 season.  They deliberately delayed his debut for a couple of weeks solely so that he would be unable to accrue a full year of Major League service time in 2015 and his post-six year free agency would therefore be delayed by a whole season.

It would be fair to say that it’s the rules that are really at fault there – given that those are the rules, it was a logical business decision for the Cubs to make – but the Cubs still knew what the longer term impact on the player would be when they made that choice.

Bryant’s deal of $10.85m is a record for a first-time arbitration eligible player and you have to think that there is an acceptance on the part of the Cubs that they have to give a bit of ground in the circumstances.

Game times released

Fans could start doing a bit more planning for the regular season from Wednesday as MLB updated their regular season schedule by adding in game times.

They take on added importance to us based on the convenience of watching live games with earlier start times.  The details are subject to change, so you shouldn’t get too tied to first pitch times too far ahead, but we should be able to rely on the current start times for the opening series being accurate.

As already known, Opening Day on Thursday 29 March is going to be a baseball feast with the first game – Chicago Cubs at Miami – from 12.40 Eastern Time (17.40 our time) and the final two games – Cleveland at Seattle and Colorado at Arizona – getting going at 10.10pm ET (03.10 am for us).

Fans of 24 teams will be able to catch their opener at a convenient British evening time.  The San Francisco and LA Dodgers are the other two starting at night US time (7.08 ET, 00.08 am for us) making it six teams for whom their UK fans will need to be up in the early hours to see their season opener live. That shouldn’t be too much of a hardship though, especially as it’s Good Friday the following day.

If one of those final two games goes 3.5 hours we’d be looking at 13 solid hours of baseball by which to welcome MLB back.

Sounds good to me!

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Back for 2018

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With November and December in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to get my weekly MLB column back up-and-running as we start looking ahead to pitchers and catchers reporting to their 2018 Spring Training camps and beyond.

The planned format for ‘Weekly Hit Ground Ball’ in 2018 is to be a round-up column of the key news stories and moments from the week just gone, with a few personal reflections along the way.

It will be published every Sunday morning and, once we get to the regular season, will also pick out a few of the most enticing games to watch on a Sunday evening in Britain – typically the best time of the week for us to catch live baseball.

The Not Hot Stove

The main news, of course, is the lack of news.  The so-called baseball off-season Hot Stove is barely simmering as the free agent market is taking time to develop, which has a knock-on effect on the trade market (and vice versa).

Now that the Christmas break is over, we’re starting to see an increase in rumoured offers to free agents – the interest of the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals in Eric Hosmer being a good example – and the feeling is we’ll start to see the dominoes falling over the next couple of weeks.

Much is being made of next year’s free agent class and the impact it is having on the market this off-season; however, it remains to be seen what effect that will actually have. Whilst there is undoubtedly some outstanding talent waiting in the wings – Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and potentially Clayton Kershaw topping the list – only a small number of teams are going to come out of the 2018/19 off-season with a big prize.

Even though teams will make decisions this year with next year’s market in mind, there is plenty of good talent out there this off-season. We’ll soon start to see teams identifying the right player for them at the right price. Not getting jam today in the hope of better jam tomorrow is smart if it works out, but teams looking to improve will be all too aware of the potential for the Yankees, Dodgers are their ilk to buy up all the best jam next off-season and leave them empty-handed.

Rockies in relief

The Colorado Rockies certainly aren’t waiting around as they have put plenty of money into their bullpen in recent weeks.

They re-signed free agent Jake McGee to a 3-year, $27m contract (approximately £127k per week), gave the same contract to Bryan Shaw (formerly of the Cleveland Indians) essentially to replace the departed Pat Neshek and then signed Wade Davis to a 3-year, $52m contract (approximately £245k per week) to replace Greg Holland (a free agent yet to find another team).

We all know that the performance of relief pitchers can be quite volatile year-to-year so committing this amount of money to three relievers is a risk.  However, the Rockies’ relievers played an important part in the club earning a Wild Card in 2017, so it’s not surprising that they’ve decided to spend money in that area in an attempt to keep that part of the team strong.

Here’s how the Rockies’ bullpen ranked in Fangraphs WAR over the past five seasons, alongside Colorado’s win-loss record:

2017 – 87-74 (2nd NL Wild Card) – Rockies relievers ranked 6th in MLB with a 6.4 WAR
2016 – 75-87, ranked 23rd (3.9)
2015 – 68-94, ranked 22nd (2.0)
2014 – 66-96, ranked 29th (-0.2)
2013 – 74-88,  ranked 10th (4.2).

The 2013 bullpen was pretty good, although not much else on the team was. The relief corps were led by Matt Belisle, Adam Ottavino and Rex Brothers, and looking through their stats reminded me that Roy Oswalt made 3 relief appearances for them that year.

The Rockies had a very positive 2017 despite their major free agent signing from the off-season not working out. Signing Ian Desmond to a 5-year, $70m contract with the intention of him playing first base looked a questionable decision to put it mildly. His progress wasn’t helped by several injuries and that was unfortunate, yet he didn’t play well when he was on the field either.

Desmond’s downturn didn’t scupper the Rockies in 2017, but the same probably won’t be the case in 2018 if their bullpen spending doesn’t produce the goods.  It’s a risk and a package of spending that plenty of writers have questioned, but there’s a bit of me that likes the fact that they’re at least having a go.

Phillies adding too

The Philadelphia Phillies are another team who have made a few dips into the free agent market, signing relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter and then adding former Cleveland Indian Carlos Santana on a three-year, $60m contract (approximately £283k per week).

The Phillies are a great example of how teams can go in cycles in MLB. They’ve been in rebuilding mode in the last five/six seasons after a dominant five-year run at the top of the NL East between 2007 and 2011 during which they made it to the World Series twice (winning in 2008).  They were in the top three or four of all MLB payrolls between 2010 and 2014 before slashing costs and heading into the bottom third of MLB spending over the past couple of years.

Now that their young talent is starting to emerge at the Major League level – Rhys Hoskins especially catching the eye last season – the Phillies are being linked with making a big move among the elite free agent talent in the next off-season.

However, there’s value in the Phillies adding some talent around their youngsters this year too and getting back into play-off contention in stages, rather than trying to make a big jump.  Money talks loudest, but a good jump forward in 2018 (maybe to 78/80 wins or so) may also help to convince a big free agent that the Phillies are heading in the right direction and that the new signing will not have to turn them around on his own.

More Marlins misery

The latest instalment in the Miami Marlins saga was revealed by the Miami Herald this week after they got hold of documents that Derek Jeter and his fellow Marlins’ owners sent around to potential investors.

Among other dispiriting revelations was the detail of Project Wolverine as it was called that set out the ownership’s hopes for boosting revenue whilst significantly cutting the MLB payroll and therefore promising investors a healthy return on their investment.

It just adds even more salt to the wounds for Marlins fans that the pain of seeing Stanton, Ozuna and Gordon traded away (with more likely also heading out of the door) and knowing that they will be sitting through more years of poor baseball from their team will all go to help line the pockets of rich investors.

It’s hard to imagine a fanbase being treated more poorly than what those that follow the Marlins have had to endure in recent years.

More writers joining The Athletic

The subscription-based sports-writing site The Athletic is continuing to add impressive names to their baseball coverage.  Most notable for me has been the full-time appointment this week of Melissa Lockard who for years has provided outstanding coverage of Oakland A’s prospects at Oakland Clubhouse.  She’s the new staff writer/editor of the San Francisco section of The Athletic.

If you’re a fan of multiple North American sports then a subscription for The Athletic is quickly becoming close to a must-have.  I only really follow baseball so, as with the ESPN Inside subscription over the years, in that situation it’s a bit more of a decision as to how much value you get when a considerable amount of coverage relates to sports you may not be greatly interested in.  However, the increasing amount and high quality of baseball coverage they offer has tempted me in, so I’ll update in a month or so as to value for money when it comes to pure baseball fans.

First impression is that the website easily allows you to select what sports/teams you’re interested in seeing stories about, so if baseball is your focus you can just choose to display those (and then amend/update it as you like from then on).

Books on the way

We’re also at the time of year when pre-season book purchases are being considered.  The two main titles I buy are the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster.  The usual UK book outlets have 15 January as the release date for the Forecaster and 9 February for BP.  I’m counting down the days, but you can find that the dates are pushed back a bit when it comes to UK online shops having them in stock.

It’s also worth noting that the price of Kindle versions of baseball books (probably US books more generally) can change quite significantly.  For example, when the Bill James Handbook 2018 was released the Kindle version initially was almost the same price as the paperback version (approximately £18), but a few weeks on the price was revised down to approximately £12. If you’re going the Kindle route – I’ve found over the years I tend to prefer getting paperback versions of stat-based books – you can often end up saving £5 or so just by waiting a bit before Amazon.co.uk adjusts the price.

Thank You for the A’s: Looking forward to 2018

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Whilst heading back to work after the Christmas break isn’t so much fun for many, moving into a new year at least brings the next MLB season that little bit closer.

Although we’re still the best part of three months away from the regular season starting, it won’t be too long before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Realistic expectations

What should we expect from the Oakland A’s in 2018?  It’s difficult to say and that’s part of what makes this season an interesting one for A’s fans.

We have to start by acknowledging the presence of the reigning World Series champions, the Houston Astros, in the AL West and the likelihood that, even with a World Series hangover, they’re still going to be a strong club.

Then we have the team that has ‘won the off-season’ so far in the LA Angels. We’ve seen plenty of examples over the years of teams that make a lot of moves over an off-season that vaults them up the prediction lists, only for things to not quite come together. Naturally I hope that goes for the Angels in 2018 because on paper it looks like they’ve done a great job of improving their team in several different areas.

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are more of an unknown quantity.

Seattle looked like a team that might push forward in 2017 and finally end their play-off appearance drought, but that didn’t materialise.  Dee Gordon should be a good pick-up for them, albeit having to factor in how he’ll take to centre field, and it will be interesting to see if Ryon Healy can develop for the Mariners having moved from the A’s, yet all things considered the Mariners don’t obviously look significantly improved from the 2017, yet at least.

As for the Rangers, they’ve added some useful arms to their rotation in Matt Moore, Mike Minor and Doug Fister and it’s expected they’ll try to add another too, possibly reuniting with Yu Darvish. Like the M’s, you wouldn’t say they’re significantly better on paper, but at the same time they don’t look worse either.

Which brings us to the A’s and a team that has finished last in the AL West in each of the past three seasons after an enjoyable run of three consecutive play-off appearances.

The 75-87 win-loss record in 2017 was an improvement on 2015-2016 and it came with Matt Olson and Matt Chapman really impressing in their rookie seasons.  We got a glimpse of top prospect Franklin Barreto too and you can genuinely see the makings of a contender-worthy infield with that group.

The pitching didn’t really come along as hoped despite some good showings here and there, Sean Manaea being the pick of the bunch. I’m not sure we’re any the wiser as to quite what Kendall Graveman, Andrew Triggs, Jesse Hahn, Jharel Cotton and others will become and watching how they develop – or not – will be a key part of the 2018 season.

What we do now have is an encouraging farm system (John Sickels’ recent review of the A’s Top 20 prospects being a good indicator) and, with the likes of Olson and Chapman already making a mark, that’s something to hold on to.

The trade for Stephen Piscotty looks like a positive move as, away from the heart-warming personal aspect, he’s a much-needed right-handed outfielder who offers quite a bit of potential that includes being an affordable part of the team for years to come.  Although his dip in performance in 2017 reduced his stock somewhat, he’s young enough that this could have just been a bump in the road and I’m optimistic that Piscotty could prove to a productive and popular addition.

Put it all together and you’d still peg getting out of the AL West cellar and pushing towards a winning record as a realistic season that we could call a success.  The Astros and Angels look like being the top two in the AL West and when you consider the quality of the Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox (the latter surely will add a significant player or two in the coming weeks), the A’s will be far from the only team that sees a play-off spot as a tall order.

That doesn’t mean we can’t have an enjoyable season though, especially given the emerging young talent on the roster and in the Minors.

 

Key A’s dates

Let’s look ahead to when the games start up again. Don’t forget to join in the fun by following along on the Oakland A’s UK Twitter account.

Friday 23rd February

The A’s Cactus League Spring Training starts at home against the LA Angels on Friday 23rd February. First pitch is scheduled for 20.05 GMT so it’s a perfect chance to catch some A’s baseball right from the off.

Pretty much all Spring Training games are covered at least on radio so can be listened to with an MLB.TV/At Bat subscription (details of 2018’s offering should be published by MLB.com in early February), with a more limited number of games being televised and therefore available to watch via MLB.TV. We’ll have to wait and see nearer the time as to whether there will be TV coverage, but even so there’s nothing more relaxing than listening to a radio broadcast from a Spring Training game and they’re a great way to keep on top of all of the news from Spring Training camp too.

The usual A’s broadcast crew should be on hand and it’s always great to hear from the team again who will take us through the season ahead. In 2017 we also had A’s radio’s Vince Cotroneo’s son Dominic providing play-by-play for some Spring Training games, which made for a fun dynamic when father and son joined up.  Hopefully we’ll get more of the same this year.

Sunday 25th March

The traditional pre-season series against the San Francisco Giants takes place over 25-27 March with the first game being a 21.05 BST first pitch from the Coliseum on the Sunday.  The other two games take place at AT&T Park and are night games, so less convenient for us to follow live, but it’s good that at least one of the games from that series will be UK-friendly.

Thursday 29th March

The A’s regular season opener is a 21.05 BST home game against the LA Angels, possibly including Shohei Ohtani’s Major League debut for the Halos depending on how they set up their starting rotation.

It’s an earlier than usual start to the MLB regular season and they’ve made a welcome change for 2018 by having every team start on the same day, with many playing day-games. That will create a feast of baseball for us to enjoy during the British evening on the Thursday and it lines up perfectly with the Easter bank holiday (Good Friday being the following day) so that you really couldn’t wish for a better start to the baseball season.

Having an early start for the A’s opener will make a welcome change as it’s the first time since 2007 that the A’s have started the regular season with a day-game (although the two games from Japan against Seattle in 2012, and two against Boston in 2008, were day-games for us, but night-games locally).