{"id":414,"date":"2008-05-09T17:06:26","date_gmt":"2008-05-09T16:06:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=414"},"modified":"2009-09-26T11:42:35","modified_gmt":"2009-09-26T10:42:35","slug":"ichiros-bad-luck-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=414","title":{"rendered":"Ichiro&#8217;s bad luck? Part One"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>These are scary times: Ichiro appears to be human.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">After\u00c2\u00a0last night&#8217;s game against Texas, he was hitting .282. That&#8217;s far from the worst mark in the American League, but Ichiro has set himself spectacularly high standards. With the Mariners failing to live up to the pre-season hype that some showered on them, the form of their star hitter has naturally come under the spotlight. The M&#8217;s need a hero and Ichiro has performed that role pretty well (to say the least) since he landed in the U.S. back in 2001.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">His plight provides a good excuse to showcase some fantastic new batting data that is available for free on the brilliant <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Fan Graphs website<\/a>. Back in March, I <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=355\">posted<\/a> about the pitching data that had been launched on their site and they&#8217;ve now added to the goldmine by publishing similarly illuminating data about batters.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">If you use the search box and select an active hitter, you then need to click on the &#8216;Season stats&#8217; tab and scroll to the bottom of the page to find these new delights. You will be confronted by headings such as &#8216;O-Swing%&#8217; and &#8216;Z-Contact%&#8217;. Have no fear, a quick glimpse at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/blogs\/index.php\/plate-discipline-stats\" target=\"_blank\">this<\/a> introductory guide reveals that they are less complicated than they appear. Essentially the data tells you:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside\/inside the strike zone.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside\/inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">The overall percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">Put them together and they provide a unique insight into the batter&#8217;s plate discipline and hitting characteristics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">But do they provide any clues as to why Ichiro&#8217;s batting average is lower than normal? Fan Graphs shows the data (when available) for the previous three seasons and the batter&#8217;s 2008 season to date. This allows you to compare their approach year on year. Looking at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/statss.aspx?playerid=1101&amp;position=OF\" target=\"_blank\">Ichiro&#8217;s 2008 stats<\/a>, two things come to mind. Firstly, his success rates so far at making contact with pitches in the strike zone when he swings at them (97.69%) and making contact when he swings regardless of the location of the pitch (94.14%) are ridiculously good. Secondly, far from being worse than his previous years, his stats in these plate discipline categories are generally better than his 3 and a bit year averages. So, his lower than usual batting average is nothing to do with him missing more pitches.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">If he&#8217;s still making good contact with pitches on a frequent basis, the obvious line of thinking to pursue is that he is just being unlucky. &#8216;Luck&#8217; is a dirty word in professional sports, but it can play a much larger part in performances (whether individual or as a team) than some would like to admit. Maybe Ichiro&#8217;s batting average is purely a result of him hitting infielders at an unusually high rate?<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0cm;\">I will\u00c2\u00a0test that theory tomorrow in part two.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These are scary times: Ichiro appears to be human. After\u00c2\u00a0last night&#8217;s game against Texas, he was hitting .282. That&#8217;s far from the worst mark in the American League, but Ichiro has set himself spectacularly high standards. With the Mariners failing to live up to the pre-season hype that some showered on them, the form of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[553],"class_list":["post-414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlb-2","tag-mlb-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=414"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4551,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions\/4551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}