{"id":417,"date":"2008-05-10T09:56:43","date_gmt":"2008-05-10T08:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=417"},"modified":"2009-09-26T11:42:35","modified_gmt":"2009-09-26T10:42:35","slug":"ichiros-bad-luck-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=417","title":{"rendered":"Ichiro’s bad luck? Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, we looked at Ichrio’s plate discipline and concluded that he’s still making contact as well as ever so far this season. As a result, the thorny issue of ‘luck’ was raised as a possible explanation for his lower than normal batting average.<\/p>\n

A good way to test this theory is by looking at his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which can be found on the same page<\/a> as his plate discipline stats on Fan Graphs if you scroll up a bit. So far this season, Ichiro’s BABIP sits at .296. Compare this to his marks in the 2007 (.390) and 2006 (.350) seasons and you start to think that we might be on to something. A quick glimpse at his 2005 season stats also tells you the importance of a strong BABIP. That year, Ichiro recorded his lowest BABIP of his Major League career (.319), while batting for his lowest average (.303) and gaining his lowest hit total (206) \u00e2\u20ac\u201c note that these last two stats really drive home the point that we are talking about a relative down year.<\/p>\n

So, there’s a strong case that Ichiro’s BABIP tells the story of his lower batting average, but that then raises the question as to why his BABIP is low? As mentioned above, the stat is traditionally tagged with that unwelcome word ‘luck’. A lower BABIP makes people think the batter has been unlucky, generally explained as a result of their ground balls picking out the infielders at an unusually high rate. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Luck evens itself out\u00e2\u20ac\u009d is a well-used phrase in sports, so perhaps we could say that Ichiro’s good luck in past seasons has turned on its head?<\/p>\n

That might be a valid argument were it not for the fact that Ichiro consistently has strong BABIP numbers. While fortune does sometimes seem to favour certain people more than others, no one can be that<\/em> lucky over such a period of time. There must be something about Ichrio’s performances that allow him to generate a strong BABIP.<\/p>\n

Can a batter deliberately ‘hit them where they ain’t’? Missing fielders is a genuine skill in cricket, where a large part of a quality batsman’s craft involves guiding the ball into the gaps; however with a round ball and a round bat to play with, it seems like guiding a baseball to a specific point (beyond deliberately hitting it to one side of the infield or the other) is a lot less easy. Ichiro has an ace up his sleeve though that normally allows him to beat the odds: he doesn’t need to hit it past the infielders. With his lightning foot speed and his left-handed stance, that sees him running to first almost before the ball has come off his bat, Ichiro can rack up infield hits at a freakish rate. This has a big impact on his BABIP and is undoubtedly a repeatable skill.<\/p>\n

Now, Ichrio’s BABIP so far this season is virtually the same as the average MLB mark. That he has already stolen thirteen bases suggests that he is not suffering from any injuries that are affecting his speed (I’ve not heard any reports along those lines either), so he should still be getting his big boost from beating out infield hits. Chances are, the reason his BABIP isn’t 30-40 points higher, and therefore his batting average isn’t higher, is that he is<\/em> just hitting into bad luck right now.<\/p>\n

The Mariners have only played thirty-seven games so far this season. There is plenty of time for that luck to turn around and when it does, expect Ichiro’s batting average to start resembling an ‘Ichiro level’ rather than that of a normal ballplayer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, we looked at Ichrio’s plate discipline and concluded that he’s still making contact as well as ever so far this season. As a result, the thorny issue of ‘luck’ was raised as a possible explanation for his lower than normal batting average. A good way to test this theory is by looking at his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[553],"class_list":["post-417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlb-2","tag-mlb-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4550,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions\/4550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}