{"id":6876,"date":"2010-03-03T07:01:38","date_gmt":"2010-03-03T07:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=6876"},"modified":"2010-03-06T09:41:23","modified_gmt":"2010-03-06T09:41:23","slug":"book-review-baseball-prospectus-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/?p=6876","title":{"rendered":"Book Review: Baseball Prospectus 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"

Baseball Prospectus 2010 edited by Steven Goldman and Christina Kahrl (Wiley, 2010), 652 pages<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"bp-2010\"Buying the Baseball Prospectus annual has been a pre-season ritual for me since 2005; however last year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s disappointing effort<\/a> left me questioning whether to spend my money on another title. I decided to give BP another chance and I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m glad that I did as the 2010 is another good book from the team, albeit one with a few imperfections along the way.<\/p>\n

The annual is primarily designed to be an aid for fantasy owners, with the central part of the book being BP\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s own patented PECOTA projections of how each player is likely to perform in the season ahead.\u00c2\u00a0 Every team is covered in turn, beginning with an in-depth essay on the organization in question before hitters, pitchers, notable minor leaguers and the manager are looked at under a statistical eye.\u00c2\u00a0 This is followed by Kevin Goldstein\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s always enlightening section on the 101 best prospects in baseball, but there are no research articles to round off the book as there has been previously. That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s not a big blow for me because the articles in the 2009 edition were uninspiring and the Hardball Times Annual<\/a> is the book to buy if you are looking for that sort of content in any case.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

The other main difference between the 2010 and 2009 annuals is that this year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s effort includes an index (and, yes, this was the first thing I checked when I opened up the book).\u00c2\u00a0 The unintended omission of this essential finding tool last year was inexcusable and perhaps it was a factor in the move to a new publisher for this edition?\u00c2\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Beyond missing indexes, Baseball Prospectus has faced some criticism of late. There is plenty of competition out there in the fantasy annual\/advanced statistical analysis market and there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a suggestion that BP\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s position as leaders in the field is based on previous achievements, with their high standards slipping of late.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

In light of this, some of their self-promoting comments can come across as a little irritating at times (claiming they boast \u00e2\u20ac\u0153a reputation as a pioneer in statistical research\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, referring to themselves as \u00e2\u20ac\u0153an elite team of analysts\u00e2\u20ac\u009d etc), although in writing that I can see it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s probably more a reflection of the reserved Englishman in me (\u00e2\u20ac\u02dcbe modest\u00e2\u20ac\u2122, \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcdon\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t talk yourself up\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 etc) rather than a knock against BP.\u00c2\u00a0 Still, re-using the same endorsement quotes from Billy Beane, Rob Neyer and Michael Lewis year after year doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t exactly counter the idea that they are trading on former glories, particularly when those quotes of praise adorn the outside cover alongside basic errors like spelling the names of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Javier Vazquez incorrectly.<\/p>\n

These could be considered minor moans, but the doubts raised over BP\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s big bold claim that their PECOTA projections are \u00e2\u20ac\u0153deadly accurate\u00e2\u20ac\u009d is a more serious line of questioning.\u00c2\u00a0 Projections can only ever be best guesstimates as numerous factors (injuries and personal problems to name two obvious ones) can derail them on an individual basis.\u00c2\u00a0 With that accepted, you would expect \u00e2\u20ac\u0153deadly accurate\u00e2\u20ac\u009d projections to beat other competing systems and at least one study<\/a> of the 2009 projections has PECOTA comparing poorly to the rest.\u00c2\u00a0 The launch of the online 2010 versions has not gone smoothly either.<\/p>\n

These (potential) faults may affect some people, but they are not a major concern to me.\u00c2\u00a0 I don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t really use the annual as a fantasy tool as I take a more relaxed approach to fantasy baseball than many (i.e. pick a few \u00c2\u00a0ranking lists to refer to, draft as I see things on the day, spin a trade or two and see how they pan out).\u00c2\u00a0 It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s fun to look at the projections, but I don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t rely on them to help me make roster decisions.\u00c2\u00a0 The reason I buy the annual is because it provides a wealth of up-to-date info about over 1,600 players.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Most importantly, it combines the stats with objective, \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcscouting\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 commentary that provides even more detail and puts the stats into context.\u00c2\u00a0 When I look up Astros pitcher Wandy Rodriguez, I can see a wide variety of stats from his last three seasons (including BP proprietary stats like VORP) and then read about how he has improved via greater reliance on his curveball, better control and improved pitch sequencing.\u00c2\u00a0 I can trace a finger over Mark Teixeira\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s numbers and then read about his glove work and unorthodox swing.\u00c2\u00a0 I can look at the bare bones of Jair Jurrjens\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 performances and then read about his pitching repertoire (slightly-above average fastball, very good changeup, plus a solid slider introduced in 2009) and his consistency.<\/p>\n

In short, when I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m listening or watching a game via MLB.com, I can pluck this hefty book off the shelf and learn more about the hitter stepping up to the plate, or the reliever coming in from the bullpen, or the impressive prospect in Double-A that the commentators are referring to, without needing to go to several different websites or to try and interpret the stats completely on my own. From the start of Spring Training right through to the World Series, I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll be reaching for this annual on a regular basis, expanding my knowledge of the players and increasing my enjoyment of the game in the process.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

No doubt I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll come across a few errors that annoy me (like the incorrect spelling of names mentioned above) and personally I could do without some of the self-aggrandisement, but I thought the same about the 2009 edition and I still looked up something\/someone in it on an almost daily basis last season.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

I bought the annual again this year because I wouldn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t want to be without it and that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a decent recommendation for any annual\/reference tool.<\/p>\n

Have you read \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Baseball Prospectus 2010\u00e2\u20ac\u009d? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below. Can you recommend any other similar books? If so, let us know.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 2009 edition of the Baseball Prospectus annual was something of a disappointment. Have the BP team made a return to form this year?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[76,553,69],"class_list":["post-6876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-baseball-books","tag-book-reviews","tag-mlb-2","tag-stats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6876"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6882,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6876\/revisions\/6882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baseballgb.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}