Category Archives: ‘Weekly’ Hit Ground Ball

Matt Smith’s Monday morning column, looking back at the previous week in MLB and looking ahead to the ‘early’ games scheduled for the week ahead

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Replay, Braun and Curses

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WHGB11One week into the 2014 regular season and we’ve already had it confirmed that the introduction of replay challenges will make a significant difference to the game.

Every event has a positive and a negative result. If you were a Cincinnati Reds fan on Saturday then you would have been none-too-impressed when the relief of a key out at second base in the bottom of the ninth inning suddenly came under doubt as the New York Mets’ manager Terry Collins came out of the dugout to challenge the play.

If you were a Mets fan, you would have been glad to have the choice to test what at first glance looked a tight call and upon review proved to be incorrect.

Juan Lagares was out and then he wasn’t. Nothing is quite what it seems when it comes to umpiring decisions now.

Emotion is a fundamental part of the sporting experience and having the initial reaction – from elation to despair – clouded by uncertainty in an instant is arguably the most jarring compromise that instant replay challenges bring in any sport. Cricket and rugby fans know what it’s like to have to wait around to see if a crucial wicket will be upheld or a potential match-winning try confirmed and, if not quite ruin the moment, it can undoubtedly take the edge of what should be the kind of dramatic moment that keeps us spectators hooked.

Boundary calls in baseball have been revieweable by umpires for a couple of seasons already, but the new replay rules put them even more firmly under the spotlight in this context. There is no greater feeling than a walk-off home run and it’s a great shame when that gets dulled by the is it/isn’t it confusion that now can follow the apparent certainty of the moment just witnessed. Coco Crisp’s walk-off home run against the Mariners at breakfast time on Friday morning (UK time) had me struggling not to spill my mug of tea with excitement, followed by some waiting around as I waited to find out if the excitement was justified.

There is no way around this situation. The review system is there to get things right and that’s most important at the most crucial points in the game. As an A’s fan, I wouldn’t have cared if Crisp’s homer hadn’t been reviewable and subsequently was shown to have not gone over the yellow line on the outfield wall. Mariners fans and any neutrals would have seen it as a travesty for Seattle to be wrongly robbed. In this case, the umpires rightly decided not to review it and even if they had it would have proved the initial call to be correct.

Overall, having the option to make sure the decision is correct is a positive step. That was shown in the Red-Mets game as after Lagares was ruled safe, the Mets loaded the bases and Ike Davis hit a walk-off Grand Slam. Instant replay reviews can dull the drama, but then again the drama at Citi Field potentially was only possible because of the replay process that overturned an incorrect decision.

Replay has been a dominant topic over the first week. There were 32 challenges over the first 69 games, which isn’t a huge amount on reflection and hopefully the system will not seem so pervasive once the novelty wears off.  There’s no doubt that it’s going to be a defining element to this season though. MLB has introduced a Twitter account to collect every reviewed play and the Baseball Savant website has put together a brilliant replay database section allowing the impact of replay system to be debated.

Ryan Braun gets a Miller Park ovation

One of the side-stories heading into Opening Day was the anticipated reaction Ryan Braun would receive when he returned to the field having served a 65-game drug suspension.

It was clear from the moment his name was read out that Brewers fans were willing to forgive their former-MVP winner as he received an overwhelmingly positive reception.  The fact that he was, and most probably still will be, their star player surely factors into the equation as it’s easier to accept a player back into the fold if he can help you to win games.

The reaction was also a reminder of how a good proportion of British athletics crowds tended to applaud sprinter Dwain Chambers when he made his return from his Balco ban several years ago. Fellow athletes appeared to view his transgressions with more severity than the fans did and a similar situation may well develop in baseball. Players have pushed for tougher penalties to hit the drug cheats harder as they are looking at their livelihoods. Most fans support the efforts of maintaining a clean sport, but when it comes down to it they just want to be entertained and once a player has served their punishment, if they can perform on the field then why not support them in doing so.

That’s for the home fans though. Braun is likely to find fans at every other ballpark all too ready to show him the opposite reaction.

Baseball curses keep on coming

Baseball has a long tradition of curses, from the curse of the Bambino that plagued the Red Sox for years to the Curse of the Billy Goat that continues to hang over the Cubs. Perhaps a few more could be added to the list after the events of Opening Day.

The ‘Curse of the ceremonial pitch’ in Anaheim, where the Angels’ hitting coach Don Baylor suffered a freak injury – a broken right leg, no less – while catching Vladimir Guerrero’s pitch.

There’s the ‘Curse of Reyes’. The Blue Jays’ shortstop lasted one at-bat before landing on the Disabled List with a strained hamstring and his curse status builds on his move to Miami in the 2011/12 offseason as part of the Marlins’ ill-fated free agent splurge and then his move to Toronto in the 2012/13 offseason that also quickly dissolved into disappointment.

And finally, there’s just a plain-old ‘Opening Day curse’ on the Oakland A’s. Their 2-0 defeat to the Cleveland Indians made it ten consecutive Opening Day losses for the A’s.

Fantasy fun

The conflicting interests generated by playing fantasy baseball kicked in right from Opening Night this year.

On the one side was the Dodgers’ starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, providing my fantasy team with seven scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. On the other was my desire to see Brian ‘Fear the Beard’ Wilson getting smacked around – prior to finding out about his injury, of course – particularly with ex-Oakland A’s outfielder Seth Smith up at the plate.

Your gut reaction is normally the best indicator of your true priorities and as Smith launched his game-tying home run into the right-field seats, I couldn’t have cared less about Ryu – and my fantasy team – being robbed of a pitching win. Which probably goes some way to explaining my last-placed fantasy league abilities.

MLB 2014: 10 Key Topics

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MlbHlSqAs I started jotting down ideas for this column a week or so ago, it suddenly hit me that MLB’s Opening Day has probably jumped ahead of Christmas Day and my birthday as the single day of the year that I look forward to the most.

Now it’s the day of Opening Night, I’ve decided that the word ‘probably’ can be taken out of that sentence.

The start of any sporting season or tournament you follow is always exciting, but what makes MLB’s arrival just that little bit more special than the rest is that it heralds six solid months of day-after-day regular season drama – short All-Star Break excepted – topped off by a month of stirring playoff action.

We go from the famine of the offseason to the feast of 2430 regular season contests. You don’t need all of your fingers to count the number of days between now and the end of September when there will not be at least one game to enjoy, and often there will be the full complement of 15.

Whether you are a long-term baseball fan used to this feeling of anticipation or are experiencing it for the first time, here are 10 key topics as we head into the 2014 MLB season.

1. Opening Days

Opening Day is so much fun that MLB likes to stretch it out over several days. We have Opening Night on Sunday (the Padres hosting the Dodgers), we then have Opening Day on Monday for 26 other teams and then Opening Day for the Astros and Yankees on Tuesday.

What’s more, these openers are only the Stateside versions this season. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers already have two regular season games under their belts thanks to last weekend’s sojourn to the Sydney Cricket Ground.

Arizona will go into their ‘opener’ with an 0-2 record while L.A. have the bonus of a 2-0 headstart on everyone else, although a slight injury to Game One winner Clayton Kershaw takes the sheen off that minor prize.

2. Replay reviews coming to a ballgame near you

2014 will be the first year in which MLB uses a replay challenge system and now that the first game under this new era is upon us, so the realisation kicks in on what a significant change this will be.

Yahoo.com’s Jeff Passan was one of a select group of journalists treated to a tour of the hi-tech Replay Operations Center (ROC) in New York this week and his report on both the facilities themselves and what could go right and wrong with their use in this debut season is worth a read.

The key points to note about the system are:

  • Each manager will get one challenge per game and they will receive another if their initial challenge is upheld.
  • Umpires can only choose to review a decision from the seventh inning onwards and if the manager of the team on the wrong end of the original decision doesn’t have a challenge left to use.
  • The decision will be reviewed by a current MLB umpire, who will take it in turns throughout the season to be based in the ROC. They have to find clear and convincing evidence if they are to overturn the original decision.
  • The reviewing umpire will decide if the original call is either a) Confirmed (replay clearly shows the original decision was correct), b) Stands (replay still leaves doubt either way so the call on the field stands), or c) Overturned (if there is clear evidence that the original decision was incorrect).
  • Once the decision is made, fans at the ballpark and those watching on TV will get to see the defining footage on which the review umpire based their decision. A written explanation on every decision will also be published on MLB.com.

Replay will not bring a complete end to controversial umpiring moments and it’s to be expected that the system and process won’t work perfectly every time in the first year, but there’s a much greater likelihood that clear umpiring mistakes will no longer turn a game and that’s got to be a positive development, for both the umpires and the teams involved.

3. It pays to play baseball

Business is booming in baseball with MLB revenues exceeding $8bn last year. All teams are seeing a boost in their income and, for those that actually choose to spend it on their Major League roster, are investing in either obtaining quality players or keeping hold of them.

Seattle sensationally snatched second baseman Robinson Cano from the Yankees’ grasp by offering him a 10-year, $240m contract.  The Yankees responded by investing $458m in four players: Japanese pitching star Masahiro Tanaka ($155m contract plus a $20m posting fee), ex-Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury ($153m), ex-Braves catcher Brian McCann ($85m) and ex-Cardinal Carlos Beltran ($45m).  Shin-Soo Choo was the other main free agent signing, heading to the Texas Rangers on a seven-year, $130m deal.

As for keeping hold of players, the Dodgers looked to have made the biggest splash of the offseason by agreeing a seven-year,$215m contract extension with two-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.  However, that was put in the shade in the last couple of days by the Detroit Tigers’ decision to sign MVP Miguel Cabrera to an eight-year, $248m contract extension. It amounts to the most lucrative financial commitment handed out to any player across all major North American sports when adding on the $44m they will pay him over the next two seasons before the extension kicks in.

Cabrera’s two MVP seasons have been inextricably linked with the incredible performances of the Angels’ outfielder Mike Trout. The shock of Cabrera’s contract extension was followed by musings on what it might mean for Trout and we found out almost immediately when the 22-year old signed a six-year, $144.5m contract with the Angels. It says a lot about Trout’s performances, and the finances in MLB, that the commitment seems entirely reasonable and potentially sets up Trout for a gargantuan free-agent contract when this current deal would expire.

4. Wealth is relative

The money flooding into MLB, alongside various arrangements to share the revenue around the 30 teams, calls to mind the old economic phrase that a rising tide lifts all boats.

The sentiment is accurate, yet it’s still the case that some teams have modest dinghies while others have floating luxury mansions.

The L.A. Dodgers usurped the New York Yankees from the top of the spending charts last year and, based on the recently-released Opening Day payroll predictions, they will remain at the top in 2014 with just over $235m committed to their Opening Day roster. The Yankees then come in second with $202m having ditched plans to keep under the luxury tax threshold of $189m after the relative disaster of missing the playoffs in both of the past two seasons.

5. Underdogs still have some bite

The two lowest spenders – Houston Astros at $44.5m and Miami Marlins at $47.5m – can be put to one side in the competition debate as they are there through choice (in compliance with the rules but in opposition to sporting fair play) rather than financial constraints, so raise a cheer for the next lowest four teams – Tampa Bay Rays ($77m), Pittsburgh Pirates ($78.1m), Cleveland Indians ($82.5m) and Oakland A’s ($83.4m) – who, despite spending similarly modest sums, all made the playoffs last year.

6. Young stars rising

The likes of the Angels’ Mike Trout, the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, the Orioles’ Manny Machado (although a knee injury will delay his season debut), the White Sox’s Chris Sale and the Nationals’ duo of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper will continue the process of establishing themselves as some of the best young players in the game this season.

A number of new potential stars played in the Majors last season, from Rookies of the Year Jose Fernandez (Marlins) and Wil Myers (Rays), to the enigmatic Cuban Yasiel Puig (Dodgers) and pitchers Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Michael Wacha (Cardinals) and Sonny Gray (A’s). All but Fernandez gained postseason experience in their first MLB season, as did Xander Bogaerts who helped the Red Sox to a World Series triumph and will be a favourite to win a Rookie of the Year award this year as Boston’s starting shortstop.

The Reds’ lightning fast outfielder Billy Hamilton also wasted little time in showing off his incredible speed by averaging a stolen base per game in his 13 appearances at the end of last season. If he is able to get on base on a regular basis, he’ll cause havoc on the basepads and be another RoY contender.

Other young players that are on their way to the Big Leagues include Yordano Ventura (Royals), Oscar Taveras (Cardinals), Javier Baez (Cubs), Jonathan Gray (Rockies) and outfielder Byron Buxton (Twins), the latter generally being considered to be the best prospect in baseball right now and who might make his Major League debut later this season despite being only 20 years old.

7. Players on the sidelines

Although there will be plenty of exciting young players on show, unfortunately a number of players have undergone elbow surgery and will miss the entirety of the 2014 season.

The fallen include the A’s Jarrod Parker, both Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the Braves, Partick Corbin for the D-Backs, Cory Luebke for the Padres, Luke Hochevar for the Royals, Bruce Rondon for the Tigers and the Twins’ third-base prospect Miguel Sano.

The Mets’ Matt Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery last October and whilst it’s possible he may make a few short outings in September, for all intents and purposes he’s considered to be on the shelf for 2014.

The Tigers’ shortstop Jose Iglesias is also likely to miss the entire season due to stress fractures in both legs.

8. Performance-enhancing drugs still a leading topic

The fall-out from the Biogenesis saga will continue into 2014. Alex Rodriguez may well be conspicuous by his absence as his ugly offseason legal dispute with MLB mercifully was brought to an end when he accepted the decision to ban him for the entire 2014 season. Something tells me A-Rod will still find a way into the headlines at some point this year.

Whilst Rodriguez will sit out 2014, fellow ‘Biogenesis bad guy’ Ryan Braun has now completed his suspension and will look to rebuild his career. Although some will always hold the saga against him – not least due to his bare-faced lies when he got caught the first time – if he regains his previous form and helps the Brewers back to playoff contention then his past transgressions may be forgiven, if not forgotten.

However, MLB and the Players Association have responded to the negative news stories of last year by announcing on Friday increased testing and tougher penalties for those that are caught, including banning the offending player from that year’s postseason even if they have served their ban earlier in the season.

9. A Hall of Fame ceremony to look forward to

The ‘drug issue’ also clouded the recent offseason as this year’s Hall of Fame voting process brought more of the so-called ‘steroid era’ players onto the ballot and served to make what was already a muddled moral maze even more difficult. Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell, all great players of their time, join the cases of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in having longer to write induction speeches that may never need to be read aloud.

Still, there were so many outstanding players on the list that even in these confused times there will not be a repeat of the 2013 damp squib where no players were elected. Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas rightfully will be inducted into Cooperstown on 27 July, with legendary managers Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Joe Torre joining them in what will be one of the most memorable induction days in years.

10. Predictions

There are clear favourites in each of the three National League divisions – the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers – and it’s difficult to look past them when predicting how the regular season will pan out, yet that’s not to say all three will definitely make it (pretty much everyone had the Nationals as nailed-on favourites 12 months ago, for example). As for the Wild Cards, both went to NL Central teams last season, but I think the Braves will still be strong enough to make it to the playoffs despite their injury problems, and the Giants are a good bet to make it back to October.

The American League is much more difficult to call once we make the only sensible choice of predicting the Central as being the Tigers’ to lose. I’m sticking with my Oakland A’s to make it three AL West titles in a row, with the Rangers edging the Angels to take a Wild Card. In the East, the Yankees and Orioles could make it a four-way battle, but I’ll take a repeat of 2013 and predict the Red Sox to win the division and the Rays to take the Wild Card.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: MLB in Sydney

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WHGB11There is now only one week to go before the MLB regular season gets underway properly in the States.

The second half of March always has a tendency to drag for players and fans alike. The charm of sunny, relaxed Spring Training games is still there but the understandable lack of true competitive spirit begins to make the games seem all the more missable.

Last year we had the World Baseball Classic interlude that made March whiz by and international series games such as those held in Japan in 2012 and Australia this year also help to break up the monotony.

The two-game series in Sydney between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers was a good appetiser for what’s to come.  Clayton Kershaw treated the fans to an impressive pitching display in the opener, his curveball regularly prompting oohs and aahs from the locals, while the D-Backs’ late – ultimately unsuccessful – fight back created an enjoyable ending to what was otherwise a slightly pedestrian second game.

The Dodgers’ legendary commentator Vin Scully went along for the trip and brought his customary lyrical style to the proceedings. Scully may not profess to know much about the game usually played at Sydney Cricket Ground – played by ‘cricketeers’, as he put it – but he had a genuine appreciation for the surroundings, not least the picturesque Members’ and Ladies’ pavilions that went up the right-field line as the field was configured.

There was a healthy crowd on hand for both games and early indications are that MLB feel it was a successful venture. That, of course, has prompted many of us Brits to dream of a similar series happening on these shores in the near future.

It’s a topic that has been considered on a regular basis for years and the obstacles – primarily fitting it into the MLB schedule at a time when there’s a decent chance of good weather, as well as finding a suitable venue – are well known.  These are not insurmountable problems and, despite the snide cynicism towards the sport that exists in some quarters here, with effective promotion any games would be well supported and make for an impressive event.

The sticking point really is not so much the games, but the infrastructure around them that would make the effort to stage them worthwhile by capitalising on the exposure gained.

For example, Australia has a professional baseball league in which MLB is the leading shareholder. The D-Backs’ shortstop Didi Gregorius is one of a number of players that have been loaned out to be part of the league whilst in the Minors. There is a direct financial interest in MLB increasing the profile of the game in Australia but, more to the point, the ABL creates a focal point around which the International Series can be built upon.

For us baseball fans it would be fantastic to see MLB games in Great Britain and any extra publicity would be a positive thing for the hard-working folks at BaseballSoftballUK, the British Baseball Federation and all of the clubs around the country.

However, it’s probable that a lot more groundwork is needed here before MLB would take the step to bring games across the pond in the knowledge that it will be part of a longer-term strategy to see the sport grow (for instance, the NFL’s now regular games at Wembley are, in part, driven by the possibility of expanding NFL teams into new countries). The Netherlands, with their long-established professional league and facilities, is the likely first destination if MLB does want to venture into Europe and both Italy and Germany, to name but two countries, would be ahead of us based on existing baseball infrastructure too.

All of which is not to pour cold water on the prospect of enjoying MLB games in Britain; MLB no doubt would love to plant their flag over here. We do though have to temper expectations that MLB games will fall into our laps and instead focus on what can be achieved over the next ten years so that MLB can see staging games here as a logical next step in a wider strategy to develop baseball on these shores.

National League certainties?

I normally avoid prediction articles before I’ve had a chance to put my selections together. Baseball Prospectus’ Free Friday promotion led me to make an exception in the case of their predictions and the combined views of 37 BP staff shows how important the two Wild Cards will be in the National League this season when it comes to play-off race excitement.

In all of the three NL divisions only two teams received a first-place vote and even then there was an overwhelming favourite in each case. The Washington Nationals received 38 votes in the East (the remaining 2 went to the Braves, no doubt impacted by Atlanta’s pitching injury woes), the St. Louis Cardinals received 36 in the Central (the Reds got the only other 2 votes cast) and only a solitary first-placed vote for the Giants denied the Los Angeles Dodgers from a 100% result in the West.

It’s hard to argue with the results as things stand today, so the drama is likely to come from either one of the favourites being bedevilled by injuries and/or the Wild Card race picking up the slack.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Season Number Eight

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Baseball is on its way. The Superbowl has been and gone, MLB.TV subscription details have been announced and teams are starting to head to their Spring Training camps in Arizona or Florida.

The long winter months are tough to get through, but we’re over the worst of it and can now look ahead to what is certain to be another incredible MLB season.

I’ve been covering MLB in a weekly column, ‘Weekly Hit Ground Ball’, since 2007 and will do so again in 2014. It’s undergone various format changes over the years to hopefully keep it fresh, including changing from being published on a Sunday to a Monday.

This season as standard I’ll be going almost full circle and returning to something close to the initial format where I used the column to bring together all of the major stories, plus other things that caught my eye, in one bundle.

That approach is going to be flexible, so if one major story dominates the news agenda in a given week then I’ll devote the entire column to that, but by and large I’ll try to touch plenty of bases in the column and will chip in with a post or two during the rest of the week if a particular story deserves to be covered there and then rather than waiting for Monday (or Sunday, as I’ll occasionally be putting it online a day earlier, such as this weekend).

With that explained, let’s head on to the main stories of the last few days.

Arizona extensions

I mentioned last week that I had picked up the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book and the first two team essays – on Arizona and Atlanta – have proved quite prescient.

The Diamondbacks were the first team to open their Spring Training camp due to their participation in the early MLB season opener in Australia.

The BP essay focused on the futures of General Manager Kevin Towers and Manager Kirk Gibson. Both were due to enter this season with only one year remaining on their contracts and with some question marks over whether they would be with the team in 2015.

It was thought that they would need to use the 2014 season as an extended trial to prove they were the men to take the team forward in the coming years; however those thoughts were pushed aside this week as both received contract extensions.

The D-Backs are in an interesting position having finished dead on .500 in each of the last two seasons and with the Dodgers’ spending making them strong favourites for the NL West division again.

Arizona need to find a way to take the next step and to push for a Wild Card spot and if they don’t it would call into question whether the contract extensions, Gibson’s in particular, were a good decision. Acting early does at least mean there will be no distractions if the season doesn’t start brilliantly for them, so in that sense clearing up the issue could work in their favour.

Arizona have improved their chances of a mounting a decent challenge by agreeing to a two-year deal with Bronson Arroyo. Their starting rotation was in need of support and Arroyo’s brand of solid if unspectacular work should meet the need well.

Eight years for Freeman

The Atlanta Braves’ chapter in BP 2014 centred on their young core of players and impending dilemmas the team would face in trying to keep hold of as many as possible.

Stage one in that process was completed this week as the team agreed an eight-year, $135m contract extension with first baseman Freddie Freeman. It’s the most lucrative contract in the team’s history and shows how much faith they have in the 24-year-old.

His age is crucial to the deal for the Braves. Freeman finished fifth in the NL MVP voting process last season and yet you could have a long argument over whether he’s really an elite young player worthy of $135m or ‘just’ a very good one. The key point is that either way it represents good value because the Braves are going to be paying that money when he’s in his prime.

The Braves also agreed a two-year, $13.3m deal with outfielder Jason Heyward. He was already under contract with the team for those years, and it may prove difficult for Atlanta to keep hold of him beyond this point, but this at least puts to bed any arbitration wrangling.

Which camp?

There are still a number of free agents who don’t yet know which Spring Training camp they will be heading to.

It was presumed that A.J. Burnett would be staying at home and beginning retirement, but in the past couple of weeks it has emerged that he fancies giving it at least one more year. A return to the Pirates does not appear to be on the cards, leaving the Orioles, Phillies and Blue Jays as the likely main contenders for his signature.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana are also on the radar of teams seeking an additional starting pitcher. Jimenez has been heavily linked with a move to Toronto although no deal has been struck just yet.

Seattle bound

Fernando Rodney reportedly has found a new team in time for the beginning of Spring Training after agreeing a two-year contract with the Mariners.

Seattle are also seen as the team keenest to end outfielder Nelson Cruz’s stay on the free agent market.  Cruz has been characterised as the booby prize this offseason with the assumption being that one team desperate for a right-handed bat will hand the 33-year-old a multi-year contract they’ll soon come to regret.

After taking their $240m plunge with Robinson Cano there’s a sense that the Mariners need to add at least one more bat to the mix in 2014 and that they may be the team to pay Cruz.

Another victim

Sadly it’s always only a matter of time in Spring Training before a pitcher’s season is cut cruelly short before it has even begun as their elbow gives way and Tommy John surgery is required.

This spring’s first victim, the Padres’ Cory Luebke, is doubly unfortunate as he is undergoing the operation for a second time after his recovery from the first operation didn’t go to plan. Luebke has been out of action since May 2012 and it will be 2015 before he has any chance of getting back out onto the field.

Good news at last

Finally, that rarest of things: a news story about Alex Rodriguez that is good for baseball. Rodriguez has dropped his lawsuit and accepted a season-long ban for his alleged part in the Biogenesis drug case. The game didn’t need the sideshow of an ongoing bitter legal dispute this year and we can now all concentrate on positive news such as the teams heading back to Spring Training camps.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Playoffs in Pittsburgh

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The final week of the 2013 MLB regular season produced plenty of drama from storylines of retiring Yankees to a gripping Wild Card race in the American League and an incredible no-hitter by the Miami Marlins’ Henderson Alvarez ended on a walk-off wild pitch.

And just as we all hoped, we look set to have an enthralling October of playoff baseball.

Nowhere will that be more welcome than in Pittsburgh, for far to long a city that has been starved of all the thrills and spills that the postseason brings.

Their series win over the Cincinnati Reds to end the regular season meant that PNC Park will be the venue for their final battle of 2013 with that same team.

The Pirates were on their way to breaking their losing-season hoodoo last year when they collapsed down the stretch. This time, they’ve been able to hold steady over the final two months and now homegrown talents such as the outstanding Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez and Gerrit Cole will get the chance to play on the biggest stage.

There will be plenty of pressure on the team come Tuesday night (the early hours of Wednesday for us in the U.K.). Getting this far is a great achievement for the Buccos but as the first pitch nears a nagging thought will linger at the back of the mind: after waiting so long for this moment to come, it will be an enormous let down to have it all end after just one game. Losing a Division Series is tough enough, falling short in the Wild Card game will be ten times worse.

That nervousness is something the Reds need to take advantage of. They have their own pressures to deal with after letting a 2-0 NLDS lead slip against the San Francisco Giants last year. Their scheduled starting pitcher for the Wild Card game will certainly have that on his mind.

Johnny Cueto lasted just one batter in Game One of that series before suffering an injury that ruled him out for the rest of campaign. Mat Latos stepped into the breach by pitching four relief innings as the Reds went on to win 5-2. In one of those curious coincidences that sport can produce, Latos’s own injury issues have ruled him out of the game against Pittsburgh and this time roles will reverse with Cueto trying to save the day.

Whilst the Reds are publicly stating their confidence in Cueto, quietly there has to be some doubt as to which version will show up. The pitcher has been on the Disabled List three times this season and has only recently returned to action with two decent outings against the Houston Astros and New York Mets. Neither of those opponents has exactly dazzled this season on offence so Pittsburgh have to fancy their chances of jumping on him early and getting the home crowd going even more.

As for the Pirates, they will counter Cueto with an off-season addition that has turned out much better than anyone could have predicted. The news that Pittsburgh had come to an agreement with Francisco Lirano didn’t seem all that inspiring, as I wrote just before Christmas last year:

“Liriano has put up a 5.23 ERA over 60 appearances (52 starts) for the Twins and White Sox during the past two seasons and whilst he has been close to striking out a batter per inning over that span (279 K’s in 291 innings pitched), he has dished out free passes at a rate (5 per nine innings) that makes it hard to be successful.

Mired in the longest-ever sequence of consecutive losing seasons, the Pirates would have to pay top dollar to beat other teams to sign a leading free agent and they cannot afford to do so (nor even come close, one suspects). That leaves them giving money to players that might not help them all that much.  Moving to the non-DH league may be a slight positive for Liriano’s performances; however a two-year, $12.75m investment in him doesn’t seem likely to bring the Pirates a fortune-changing return.”

Liriano suffered an injury to his non-throwing arm not long after the deal had been agreed and the two sides came to a revised arrangement, only guaranteeing the pitcher $1m in 2013 (with another $3.75m dependent on staying healthy) and a club option of $8m for 2014. The Pirates couldn’t call on Liriano until 11 May as he recovered but he was more than worth the wait.

The left-hander has gone 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA over 26 starts and his peripheral stats show this has not been a fluke. He’s continued his recent trend of striking out a batter every inning (163K’s in 161 innings pitched) whilst cutting down on the free passes to 3.5 per inning. His five starts in September have yielded a less-impressive 5.14 ERA which might suggest he’s running out of steam, but his strikeouts and walks have remained on course (28 IP, 28K, 12BB) and within those five games was a strong eight-inning effort against the Reds.

It should be an intriguing match-up and PNC Park will be a wonderful host venue. It’s one of the most picturesque ballparks in the Majors and it will be crammed full with Pirates fans, quite a few of whom will be watching their team playing postseason baseball for the first time.

Put it alongside the American League Wild Card shuffle and we’re sure to have an exciting start to October.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Dodgers and Red Sox

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox were the first two teams to clinch a postseason spot last week, ensuring they will play baseball into October this year.

Neither made it to the playoffs last season and although the Dodgers gave it a good go – finishing only two games out of a Wild Card place – the biggest noise both teams made in the final six weeks of the 2012 regular season came in the form of their blockbuster trade.

Years of dreadful ownership had left the once-proud Dodgers in a mess, having several high quality players but with most everything else done on the cheap. New ownership left them in a position of being incredibly cash-rich and desperate to make an impression as the 2012 season moved along. With limited chips to trade and the ability to buy players on the free agent market several months away, the Dodgers turned to an equally desperate Boston Red Sox.

The golden era of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein had turned poisonous; both departed prior to 2012 but there were a host of veteran players remaining on long-term contracts and the ill-judged decision to bring in Bobby Valentine as manager did little to herald the dawn of a new era. Boston looked like a busted flush, stuck with nowhere to go until some of those contracts ran their course and they could begin again.

But then, like a wealthy fairy godmother, the Dodgers provided the Red Sox with a lifeline and in doing so set in course a series of events that has helped both make it to the playoffs a mere one year later.

The Dodgers have received a varied return from the players they acquired. Josh Beckett pitched poorly before suffering a season-ending injury, but he always looked like being the bitter pill the Dodgers had to swallow to get a genuine quality first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez and to take a chance on the injured but talented outfielder Carl Crawford.

Both hitters have given the Dodgers decent seasons. Whilst Gonzalez hasn’t been exceptional – his 2.7 FanGraphs Win Above Replacement mark being the ninth-best of all first baseman in the Majors this season – he has provided a solid presence in the lineup all season long. The Dodgers had to wait for Carl Crawford to be fully fit but he’s performed well when he’s be on the field (2.4 WAR) and utility man Nick Punto (1.7 WAR) has been a useful cog in the machine too.

Their performances don’t quite match their salaries but the Dodgers are one team where, right now, that really doesn’t matter. They’ve got money to burn and want to win and what they needed was good veteran players that they could rely on to contribute on a consistent basis for a playoff-calibre team. That’s exactly what they’ve received.

For the Red Sox, you need to look past the players they received in the trade (James Loney moved on to the Rays over the offseason and prospects such as Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster have only pitched a few innings this season) and focus on their offseason additions. The trade was all about gaining payroll flexibility and allowing General Manager Ben Cherington to re-fresh the roster alongside new manager John Farrell.

Many balked at the sight of outfielder Shane Victorino receiving a 3-year, $33m contract but the Red Sox decided to invest in a player who they were confident could recover from a disappointing 2012 season and be a handy all-round package (at the plate, on the bases and in the outfield) to add to the mix.

He’s responded by giving the Red Sox arguably the best season of his career to date and his 5.6 WAR is better than anyone on the Dodgers team that he left as a free agent over the winter. Boston will be more than happy with the return on their investment even if – as you would expect – his performances slip back over the next two years of his deal.

Victorino was joined by the likes of Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Ryan Dempster as experienced players who could contribute straight away and, at the very least, make them a competitive outfit to put the misery of 2012 in the rear view mirror. A few comments were made at the start of the season that Boston may have added plenty of players, but they hadn’t added players that really made them much better.

Considering the Red Sox enter the final week of the regular season with the best record in the Majors, that viewpoint was clearly incorrect.  They hadn’t added obvious impact players, yet their contributions have been extremely valuable because they’ve been accompanied by good seasons from holdovers Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz (when he’s been on injury-free) and a surprisingly decent season from injury-returnee John Lackey.

No one knew quite how last season’s mega trade would work out for either side. Twelve months on, there’s a very real possibility that the two teams could meet in a World Series. If you’re looking for a brave trade that benefited both teams, look no further than this Dodgers-Red Sox deal.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: 50 still an impressive feat

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The Baltimore Orioles’ Chris Davis stood in the batter’s box against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday in an important spot. His team was tied 3-3 in the top of the eighth and were desperate to add another win to their playoff push.

As he had done so many times before this season, Davis didn’t let the moment slip past. He took a 2-2 pitch into the left-centre seats at the Rogers Centre to help his team to a 5-3 victory.

The trip around the bases only added one home run to his total, but its impact was greater from a symbolic perspective.

Davis had made the leap from 49 home runs, joining a select group of players to have hit at least 50 home runs in a single season. Over all of the many thousands of individual hitting seasons in MLB history, it was only the 43rd time in which a player had rounded the bases having made it to 50 home runs.

It somehow doesn’t feel quite as rare as it should, though.

Firstly, there have been 36 occasions when a hitter has exceeded 50 home runs in a single season, most recently the 54 swatted by Jose Batista in 2010, so whilst it’s a landmark worthy of a curtain call it’s not a figure that necessarily will live long in the memory of the casual baseball fan.

Secondly – as you may well have already thought to yourselves – it’s something that we’ve seen with a certain amount of regularity over the past 20 years. Indeed, it’s the 25th time since 1995 that we have witnessed the same moment.

Babe Ruth was the first man to get past the big five-zero and it’s difficult to imagine just how mind-bendingly incredible it must have seemed when he ended up with 54 in 1920, his first season with the New York Yankees.

The Babe’s total was 25 more than had ever been hit before – his own record of 29 from the previous season – and 35 more than the next-best of the season, George Sisler’s 19. Not only that but, in one of the great pieces of Ruthian trivia, it was a number that only one team (the Philadelphia Phillies with 64) was able to surpass combined.

There’s being the best and then there’s being so outstanding that you completely shatter previously held ideas on what is possible.

Ruth’s 1920 season was truly extraordinary and yet perhaps 50 was already made to seem a bit ‘old-hat’ just twelve months later when the Babe came achingly close to breaking into the 60s, falling one home run short.

Even though Ruth did finally get out of the fifties with his 60 longballs in 1927, the efforts of the great sluggers over the many decades to follow showed that getting to 50 was still a remarkable achievement. When George Foster hit 52 in 1977, it was only the 17th time it had been done in over a half-century since (and including when) Ruth did it first.

There was then a 23 year gap before the 18th occasion, Cecil Fielder’s 51 in 1990, and another five years before the 19th, Albert Belle’s round 50 in 1995. Two 32 year-olds then did it the following year and both are associated with hailing a new and controversial era in MLB history.

Mark McGwire hit 52 before heading off on his rollercoaster of being hailed whilst breaking Roger Maris’s single-season record of 61 and then brought down by accusations, and eventual admission, of steroid use.

The other man to hit 50 was Brady Anderson who achieved the feat as a Baltimore Oriole and who, prior to Chris Davis’ blast on Friday night, held the record for most homers in a season by an Oriole. Anderson has come to personify the muddied waters of MLB’s recent history. His previous season best was 24 home runs and the huge jump to 50, at a time in his career when you would expect him to be declining past his peak, is such a big outlier that it’s difficult not to seek an explanation that goes beyond a mere late career year.

Anderson never failed a drugs test, but he never took one either. It may have been a combination of different factors – better conditioning through non-drug measures, a hitter bubbling over with confidence, pitchers pitching him differently as the season wore on etc – that produced a genuinely magical season. It’s not going to go down in history that way though, regardless of Anderson’s continued protestations of innocence.  That may be grossly unfair on the player, yet that’s the hand dealt to all sluggers of recent vintage.

Chris Davis himself jumped into the controversy earlier in the season by stating that he held Roger Maris’s mark of 61 to be the true single-season record, discounting the six occasions this has been surpassed combined by Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.

Unless Davis goes on an almighty outburst over the next two weeks, we’re not going to have to worry about that contentious issue this season (my personal view is that we all saw Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs in 2001 and, whether you like it or not, pretending that he didn’t doesn’t really help anyone, least of all the next player to hit his 62nd home run of a season).

However, even getting to 50 is still a notable achievement in the history of the sport and one that shouldn’t be diminished by the recent frequency of it and all of the suspicions around the so-called steroid era.

Don’t let Chris Davis’ feat pass you by. It’s something well worth acknowledging.

Writing about home run seasons is made so much easier by the wonder that is Baseball-Reference.com. I guess the greatness of that website is almost taken as read by any writer or reader, but it’s a superb resource and one none of us should ever take for granted.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Postseason Dreams

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The opening weekend of the NFL naturally draws some of the attention away from MLB Stateside; however, whilst this means baseball has to compete with gridiron it also means that the business end of the MLB season is upon us.

MLB announced the 2013 postseason schedule last week and the use of the term ‘October baseball’ to describe the playoffs couldn’t be more appropriate this year.

The postseason begins on 1 October with the National League Wild Card game, currently looking very likely to be a battle between two NL Central teams. The action then will continue all the way through to a potential World Series Game Seven on 31 October.

From a British perspective, the main thing we concentrate on is the start times and they will not be announced until much closer to the games being played. Typically there are a few games over the Division and League Series contests that are played during the day-time, and therefore during the British evening. Understandably, the majority will be played at night and so October is often the month where fans in Britain need to sacrifice some sleep, or at least take some leave from work to make a lie-in possible.

The two Wild Card games should be spectacular, whoever ultimately ends up playing in them, and from our perspective they are likely to take place in the early hours of Wednesday 2nd (NL Wild Card) and Thursday 3rd (AL).

The World Series will once again begin in the early hours of a Thursday with the potential Game Seven – something I’m sure we would all love to see, especially after the slight anti-climax of the San Francisco Giants’ four-game sweep last year – being in the early hours of Friday 1 November. We’ll need to wait until the end of a potential Game Six to know if it’s definitely going to happen, but if there’s a Friday to be tentatively booked off work to start a long weekend then that would certainly be one to pick.

Oh, and don’t forget the potential tie-breakers.

Buccos wave goodbye to 20 losing years

“There’s a high drive to right field … could this clear the deck … cannonball coming …Travis Snyder … a pinch-hit home run in the top of the ninth inning in Milwaukee .. Buccos lead it 4 to 3 … how about that … unbelievable!”.

That’s how the KDKA announcers called the moment when the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Travis Synder took a 2-2 pitch over the fence last Tuesday. Any go-ahead ninth-inning home run is going to cause excitement, especially for a team in the playoff race.

However there was another element that made its potential – and ultimately actual – impact all the more important. The victory was the Pirates’ 81st of the season and ensured that they had finally brought an end to one of the most crushing sequences of losing ever seen.

Baseball fans in Pittsburgh have suffered 20 consecutive seasons in which their team lost more games than it won. The 20th was arguably the toughest of the lot because it looked for a good proportion of the 2012 season that the streak would come to an end. That was before they lost 39 of their final 58 games, turning a 60-44 record into a 79-83 finishing mark.

The manner of their collapse was somehow inevitable. The Pirates had long since swapped the parrot on their shoulder for a monkey on their back and however hard they tried, they couldn’t shake the losing habit.

Now that they have, the question is can they build on the achievement and make it to the postseason?

Kazmir coming good

Cleveland’s good week has meant that their playoff hopes are still alive as they are firmly in the Wild Card race. They had lost of six games of seven before taking two wins against Baltimore and then getting the better of the New York Mets at home.

The opening game of the series against the Mets had an interesting subplot to it in the form of the Tribe’s starting pitcher. Scott Kazmir was the Mets’ first round draft pick back in 2002 but never actually pitched for them after controversially being traded away to the Rays in July 2004. For a while, Kazmir was one of the few bright spots for a struggling Tampa Bay team before injuries took a toll and eventually saw him drop out of the Majors in 2011.

When Kazmir signed on with an independent team based in Houston, the Sugar Land Skeeters, last July it looked like being a forlorn last-ditch attempt to keep his career alive as the results from his 14 starts were far from impressive. However, a good stint with the Gigantes de Carolina team in Puerto Rico convinced the Clevelend Indians to sign him to a Minor League contract and he has surpassed all expectations in giving the Indians 25 starts (so far) of solid starting pitching.

The way Kazmir struck out 12 Mets over six score-less innings on Friday showed how his career has not only come full circle, but that it still has time to run after most of us thought his time had run out.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Plenty to play for

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September is here, the final month of the MLB regular season and the time when games seem to count for more.

We’ve witnessed some incredible drama in September in recent seasons and undoubtedly there will be twists and turns over the next few weeks, but the standings suggest that we already know the identity of most of the teams that will be playing in October.

ESPN.com’s MLB standings include the CoolStandings.com percentage chances of making the playoffs and there are a lot of high and low numbers in there.

The percentages suggest that the battle for being one of the five National League postseason entrants had already been decided prior to 1 September.

The Atlanta Braves led the way with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs courtesy of a 15-game cushion at the top of the NL East division. The Braves have won more games than any other team in the Majors so far this season and consequently deserve plenty of credit for their position. Still, the size of their lead also reflects the disappointing fight put up by pre-season favourites the Washington Nationals.

The Braves’ manager Fredi Gonzalez will have to ensure that his team’s ability to coast their way through September doesn’t blunt their competitive spirit once October comes along.

In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers ended August with a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs. Most onlookers would suggest that this is no more than should be expected considering their astonishing outlay on players over the past two years.  Those expectations will ensure the players are kept on their toes as they know winning the division alone will not be considered a successful season.

The Dodgers also have to play seven games against the second-placed Arizona Diamondbacks and the same number against the San Francisco Giants, who have had an underwhelming season but would surely take pleasure in getting the better of their fierce rivals. The Dodgers will make the playoffs; however September will still be a competitive month for them.

Competition is the name of the game in the NL Central too. Judging by the odds, it will be the first division to send three teams to the playoffs since the Wild Card round was introduced in 2012. However the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates (99%), St. Louis Cardinals (99%) and Cincinnati Reds (91.5%) are all odds on to get to October doesn’t tell the whole story.

The addition of the one-game Wild Card ‘play-in’ was intended to make it important to win a division once again and we’ll see that playing out in the NL Central this September. All three teams will be desperate to avoid the lose-once-and-you’re-out Wild Card game if they can and arguably none more so than the current division leader.

The Pirates will finally break their horrendous run of losing seasons, but it would be a crushing disappointment if their long play-off drought was ended only to have their postseason last just one game. To say there’s plenty still to play for would be a massive understatement.

There is also still plenty on the line during September in the American League.

The Detroit Tigers lead the league with a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs and trying to erase the memory of being swept in the World Series last year. The Cleveland Indians have put up a decent challenge in Terry Francona’s first year in charge; however they’ve hit a rough patch of late and the Tigers really should be expected to go on and win the division by a comfortable margin.

Comfortable margins are likely to be a luxury no team in the AL East or West will enjoy.

The Boston Red Sox are in a good position to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2009, yet like the rest of the current division leaders, they will be focused on securing the AL East and avoiding the Wild Card round. Although the Tampa Bay Rays have struggled slightly of late, they still have a 69.8% chance of getting to October and few will doubt their ability to push the Red Sox all the way.

The New York Yankees (14.6%) and Baltimore Orioles (13.1%) have a fair amount of ground to make up on Boston in their division, but they are still firmly in the Wild Card race and, with AL East teams facing each other on a regular basis the rest of the way, they have the opportunity to gain ground on two fronts.

The top two teams in the AL West, the Texas Rangers (97.1%) and Oakland A’s (91.6), have entered September in good shape to make the playoffs and know that they will be embroiled in a two-way battle for the division once again. The Rangers lead the way currently thanks to their excellent form in August, but they only have to look back twelve months to know how dangerous the A’s can be in chasing down a lead in the last few days of the season.

Texas also found out how costly missing out on the division title can be after they were beaten by the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card ‘play-in’ last year.

Every advantage – such as qualifying for the playoffs as a division winner – counts for a lot in October and that’s why September will not lack for excitement despite there being teams coming into the month with such a high percentage chance of making it into the postseason.

 

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Braun’s bare-faced lies

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Ryan Braun broke his silence this past week following his 65-game suspension for using a banned substance. His chosen method was unsurprising given the rest of his conduct during the whole process.

Braun didn’t sit himself down in front of a group of journalists under the full glare of TV cameras, forced to answer the difficult questions that many want to put to him.

Instead, he issued a written statement that had the fingerprints of agents and publicists all over it, however hard it tried to give off the air of being ‘from the heart’.

Braun wrote in the statement of being “deeply ashamed” and “beyond embarrassed”, whilst expressing how he “deeply regrets” what has happened.  It’s difficult to read those words without thinking that he actually “regrets” and is “ashamed” and “embarrassed” by the fact that he ran out of excuses and now has to live with the consequences of being exposed as not simply a player who failed a drug test, but as a compulsive liar.

The 2011 National League MVP award winner – a title that will be a millstone around his neck for ever more – claimed that it was a desire to recover from an injury that led to his temporary drug-taking.

“Here is what happened. During the latter part of the 2011 season, I was dealing with a nagging injury and I turned to products for a short period of time that I shouldn’t have used. The products were a cream and a lozenge which I was told could help expedite my rehabilitation”.

From a moral perspective there is a grey area where ‘performance-enhancing’ usage overlaps with genuine medical treatment to get a player out onto the field in the best condition possible.  MLB’s drug-testing programme makes clear what is a banned substance and so there are no excuses here, but most activities (be it weight-lifting, nutritional supplements, LASIK eye surgery etc) are designed to enhance performance in some way so it could be argued that calling someone a “cheat” in these circumstances isn’t quite right. It’s also true that we often have no real idea of how ‘performance-enhancing’ any alleged drug use actually is.

The problem with all this is that taking a banned substance is against the rules and will invariable involve deliberate deception. And from there, all bets are off.

The whole sorry saga around Ryan Braun’s case doesn’t need retelling in great detail, but the short version is as follows:

  • He took a banned substance in 2011 and subsequently failed a drug test
  • He invoked his right to challenge the failed drug test and in defending himself (knowing he was guilty, don’t forget), he allegedly went so far as to try and accuse the tester as being an anti-Semitic, Chicago Cubs fan
  • The efforts of Braun and his legal team – plus presumably some sloppiness of the part of the drug-testing process – successfully got him off the charge
  • Braun staged a press conference at the start of Spring Training in 2012 in which he shamelessly claimed to have been vindicated by the process, took pot shots at the drug-testing process and won the support of his teammates who defended his good character (again, all whilst Braun knew full well he was guilty as sin)
  • Braun once again came up with a cock-and-bull story earlier this year when his name was disclosed as part of the Biogenesis scandal
  • Braun originally refused to answer any questions when interviewed by MLB about the Biogenesis link before finally speaking to MLB and admitting his guilt.

Put it all together and we have no reason to believe that Braun used the banned substance with any sort of good intention, nor should we look at his admission of using them “for a short period of time” and take that at face value either.

This is a textbook case of a rich, successful and gifted athlete, presumably emboldened by the wealth and adulation that his sporting prowess has won him, being so deluded by his ego and arrogance that he can justify to himself taking any action whatsoever (e.g. tarnishing the reputation of an innocent drug tester) not only to break the rules but to cover up his guilt.

We saw the same thing with Melky Cabrera a year ago when he (and associates) created a fake website to try and cover up his positive drug test, and the stories about Alex Rodriguez (trying to buy up evidence etc) keep on coming.

You have to question whether any of these players really care. Cabrera still got himself a two-year, $16m contract over the offseason from the Toronto Blue Jays despite his transgression. Braun will forfeit $3.25m in salary during his suspension but still has $110m coming to him over the next six seasons, whilst A-Rod will retire with several hundred million dollars to cushion himself from his likely exclusion from Cooperstown.

Regardless of the unknown effects of taking these substances (naively perhaps, I suspect in baseball their impact is relatively minimal and don’t themselves turn a good player into a great one) it’s no wonder so many other players are adamant about wanting longer suspensions and more testing. So long as the likes of Braun continue to concoct a web of lies to cover up their tracks, suspicion will weigh on every player.

Sadly the acts of people like Braun ensure that every claim of innocence, however genuine, can justifiably be met with cynicism. Braun will come back and no doubt be forgiven by some, but he cannot undo the wider damage done to the reputation of the sport and his fellow players.