Tag Archives: Seattle Mariners

A $26m question

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New York Yankees fans have been front and centre in hunting down video evidence for the ongoing investigation into the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing. This public service, surely not motivated by any bitterness towards their ALCS opponents, has helped to put the Bronx Bombers on the side of the good in the ongoing saga.

So it was gracious of the Yankees’ Front Office to restore normal order this week by engaging in some classic Evil Empire behaviour.

When the Yankees signed outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7-year, $153m free agent contract in the 2013/14 off-season it had the feeling of being a potential Part 4 in Boston’s Reverse the Curse of the Bambino story. Parts 1-3 were the ultimate acts, winning World Series championships in 2004, 2007 and 2013. Ellsbury was a key contributor to the 2013 triumph, having got a ring in his 2007 rookie season too, and it was all-too obvious for the Yankees to take him away from their AL East rivals when he hit the free agent market that off-season.

Ellsbury had certainly earned his standing as a leading free agent during some very successful years in Boston and the Red Sox likely would have been happy to keep him on a less-substantial contract. The Yankees were determined to make him a fixture of their outfield for years to come whilst taking him away from their rival, much as they had done with Johnny Damon during the 2005/06 off-season, and so splashed-out on a lengthy and lucrative deal to get their man.

And so Part 4 was brought into effect. Not that anyone thought the Yankees had bought a lemon, just that Ellsbury was the type of speedy player that tended to be more affected by the passing of time than most. It’s probably a stretch to pin the last two seasons lost to injury on that, injuries can happen to any player, but the way his contract has played out (okay for the first 4 years, not so for the rest) has not come as a complete surprise.

The majority feeling was that the Yankees had over-committed as part of exerting their power in taking away a key Boston player. It was a deal that always looked likely to come back to bite them, and so it has.

However, the Yankees are doing their best to fight the forces of fate. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that they have ripped up the final year of his contract, plus the buy-out clause on an option year for 2021, due to Ellsbury “receiving unauthorized medical treatment”. In other words, the Yankees think they’ve found a way to wriggle out of paying the $26m they still owe him.

The claim is set to be challenged rigorously by the Players’ Union, not just for Ellsbury’s own case but as part of the precedent it may set in allowing a team to renege on a contract.

The full details haven’t been disclosed, so, joking aside, it’s fair to reserve judgement at this point. For all it looks like the Yankees are trying to pull a fast one, if they have clear evidence that the treatment Ellsbury underwent has made his condition worse then there may be grounds to justify their actions.

It’s an interesting case more widely within the ongoing debates around Minor League pay and plans to reduce the number of affiliated Minor League teams.

In a British sporting context, there’s a clear starting point that you are contracted to a football team, for example, and therefore your grounds to seek independent treatment, or even independent coaching, are not great. That doesn’t mean you don’t get a say, especially when it comes to getting second opinions on medical treatment and potential surgical procedures, but it rightly has to come with full disclosure and involvement with the team that is paying your wages.

Whilst it’s not exactly the same in the States, that same principle would apply to Jacoby Ellsbury’s case. The Yankees can’t force him to do whatever they like, yet as the organisation paying him a (supposed) guaranteed $21m a year to play baseball they undoubtedly have the right to a strong say in anything affecting that, and equally in Ellsbury being obligated to involve them in any such decisions.

However, what obligation should players have lower down the pecking order, such as in the Minor Leagues? A team can trade you with no notice or say at all, and even decide to terminate your contract at little financial cost, so why would you not follow your own path if you thought it best for your career?

The answer, of course, is that the 30 MLB ownership groups don’t give you a huge amount of choice. Where else are you going to go, other than taking your chances in the Independent League or hope for one of the small number of opportunities in Japan or Korea coming your way? This is the way the system works and if you want to play ball then, to a large extent, you have to play ball with whatever your current organisation wants you to do.

Ellsbury has earned millions already so he is not going to garner a lot of sympathy from the masses, even though being denied an expected $26m is a substantial issue irrespective of how much money you’ve already got in the bank.

The devil will be in the detail as to exactly what treatment he had, the effect of it, what he told the Yankees and why he went down the route of seeking alternative provisions outside of the Yankees’ control. Going against the wishes of the Yankees’ medical professionals behind their backs, if true, would be something that the team, or any other team in that situation, would be within their rights to take action against.

The case does prompt wider questions though at a time when the entire eco-system of Major League and affiliated Minor League Baseball is an ever-increasing battleground.

Like anyone else, players have obligations to their employers that they have to abide by, knowing that not doing so can put them in breach of contract. The reasonableness, and ultimate lawfulness, of those obligations in a business that is effectively a monopoly of 30 employers is an altogether more complicated matter. The antitrust exemption that MLB teams have operated under since 1922 gives them a huge amount of power in controlling the employment opportunities and rights of people wanting to play baseball professionally in North America.

How responsibly they are wielding that power is up for debate; a debate that those who fall under that power are becoming increasingly motivated to challenge.

No Seattle Sweep, but Two Wins to Smile About

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As Meatloaf once sang, two out of three ain’t bad.

The disappointment of the Oakland A’s not getting the brooms out on Wednesday to sweep the series over the Seattle Mariners quickly went away.

You can’t be unhappy at a series like that. It was two good teams coming together to play three close games (Game One being closer than the A’s would have liked).

Game Three on Wednesday was the UK-friendly day-game and everyone, including the home plate umpire, took MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s ‘pace of play’ mantra to heart in the get-away game before an off-day. They got through the nine innings in two hours, with the full twelve innings taking 3hrs 13 mins.

I had moved from watching on MLBTV to listening via the MLB At Bat when Matt Olson nearly won the game in the tenth inning. Zach Duke was brought in by Scott Servais to get a lefty-on-lefty match-up, but Olson drove a pitch deep to the outfield that had commentator Vince Controneo excited before it fell just short of clearing the outfield wall. Moments like that always seem even more exciting listening to radio commentary, blind to the footage and just waiting to hear what the outcome may be.

Olson’s double didn’t lead to the score-less tie being ended, just as the promise of Nick Martini’s lead-off triple in the fourth inning came to nothing. It felt like a big missed opportunity at the time given the way both starting pitchers – Mike Leake and Brett Anderson – were pitching, and so it proved.

It did at least give Dallas Braden the opportunity to revel in his use of the nickname ‘Dirty Martini’ for a little while, which always makes me laugh.

Two wins

Winning the series 2-1 felt all the better given the way the Mariners had swept four-games against the Houston Astros coming into it. I can’t see anything other than this Wild Card race going deep into September, possibly even the AL West division race too, yet every chance the A’s have to stop the momentum of one of their challengers is one worth taking.

The two victories were satisfying yet nervy in their own ways. Game Two was close throughout and, following James Paxton’s early exit, put us face-to-face with the old foe King Felix, who has thwarted our ambitions many times in the past. The King is not so regal now having been punted to the ‘pen, yet he showed some of his old touch in giving the Mariners 5.2 good emergency innings. Whatever shape Felix Hernandez is in, getting the better of him can’t help but taste sweet given the punishment he’s dished out over the years.

Game One looked like being a cakewalk, with Sean Manaea in excellent form, before the bullpen came unstuck and almost coughed up a 7-1 lead. I noted in the previous blog the risk of relying too heavily on the relief corps and I suspect it was no coincidence that this near-blow-up came a day after we needed six relievers to get past the Angels on Sunday.

Bob Melvin will be well aware of the challenge he has coming up in managing the pitching staff as the A’s are due to play 20 games in 20 days after the Thursday off-day. We’re going to need the starting pitchers to give us more innings, as they did in the Seattle series, so that the bullpen has a chance to be as effective as it has been to this point.

Fans in focus

The victory in Game One was partly overshadowed by criticism of the attendance, an admittedly sparse 10,400. As we wait for positive news on a new A’s ballpark, the familiar questions on whether a new stadium will lead to a long-term attendance boost in Oakland were raised again.

The way the A’s are playing this season, alongside all of the positive steps being made to reconnect with fans, do make the small crowds (Games Two and Three were slightly-more respectable 17,000) a real shame for the team and Front Office; however it shouldn’t be overlooked what damage has been caused to the casual fanbase by years of seeing popular players leave and the previous direction of casting admiring glances at other locations (particularly Fremont and San Jose).

After years of not being cared about, it’s going to take a while for the current A’s to win back the casual ticket-buyers that make all the difference to the attendance figures. What we’ve seen out of Dave Kaval and co over the past year and half makes me optimistic that they’ll be able to pull it off.

Series sheet

Here’s my Seattle series sheet.

Up next

After one big series against AL West rivals, it’s on to another with the Houston Astros. Friday’s game is a night-game, but both Saturday and Sunday’s games are 21.05 BST starts, so a great time to watch from the UK.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: The 2017 MLB Opening Week

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It’s a Scorchio Sunday in Britain today and what better way to relax in the evening after a glorious day in the sun than catching a baseball game or two.

Or maybe catching some more baseball if you’ve spent the afternoon at a British baseball league game.

Games to watch

Every team is playing during the day-time in the States (therefore in the evening for us) other than the usual ESPN Sunday Night game (Marlins at Mets) on at 1am. None of the day-games are being shown on the BT Sport channels, unfortunately, although the MLB.com Free Game (available for everyone to watch via MLB.com) is Dodgers at Rockies from 20.05 BST.

The rest of the games can be watched or listened to on MLB.TV and MLB Gameday Audio.

The first week

The Baltimore Orioles are the one remaining team that are yet to be defeated. They put their 4-0 record on the line against CC Sabathia and the Yankees today looking for their second consecutive series sweep to start the season.

New York suffered a blow yesterday as Gary Sanchez came out of the game, likely on his way to the Disabled List, with a strained bicep injury. Sanchez, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge – their three top young position players – have all scuffled in the first week. Most players will have a week or two when the hits don’t come so we shouldn’t read too much into that, yet it is perhaps a reminder that most young players take a couple of seasons to really hit their stride in the Majors.

The Minnesota Twins took their first loss of the season yesterday having started out 4-0. Even Twins fans will not be putting too much stock in their early wins, but it’s been good to see Byron Buxton and Max Kepler showing their talent in the outfield and, considering they started 2016 with nine consecutive losses, some early victories gives them something to cheer about after a string of dismal campaigns.

In the National League, it’s two teams from the NL West that have shot out of the traps. You might have expected that to be the LA Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, but instead it’s the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies who have picked up the victories and both have 5-1 records.

The D-Backs needed a positive start after their horror show in 2016 and that’s what they’ve had, even getting a mildly encouraging pitching performance from last-year’s flop Shelby Miller in the process.

As for the Rockies, hopes that their third-placed finish (albeit with a 75-87 record) from 2016 could lead to better things in 2017 seemed to have been dashed by a string of injuries. That may still prove to be the case, but when you can get the better of Clayton Kershaw – as they did on Saturday, including Kershaw giving up back-to-back home runs for the first time in his career – then you just might be on to something.

On the other end of the scale, the Giants and Seattle Mariners haven’t given their fans much to cheer about over the first week as they’ve both lost five of their six games played.

The Giants were undone by their bullpen in 2016 and responded by signing closer Mark Melancon to a four-year, $62m contract over the off-season. His first act as a Giant last Sunday was to cough up a  5-4 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning against Arizona.

Matt Cain also looked shaky in his first start of the season on Friday against the San Diego Padres. For all he has done for the Giants, you have to wonder how much more he has left to give. Cain has pitched less than 100 innings in each of the past three seasons and has had an ERA over five in the last two campaigns.

As for the Mariners, it was expected that their batting lineup would be a strength but their bats have been absent in the first week. They lost three from four against the Houston Astros and now the first two games of their series against the LA Angels. More concerning is the sight of losing off-season recruit Drew Smyly to an elbow injury that will see him out of action until June at the earliest.

The M’s could get into the play-off running; however they look like a team that needs plenty of things to break right for that to happen. Maybe they’re just getting their bad luck out of the way early.

Finally, I have to include a mention for the Oakland A’s and Kendall Graveman in particular. He was the A’s Opening Night starting pitcher, with Sonny Gray’s start to the season delayed by an injury, and it would be fair to say he isn’t a classic ace-type hurler.

However, he’s been brilliant in his first two appearances, winning both and taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning of last night’s game against the Texas Rangers. If he can keep that sinker moving the way he wants to and getting ahead of hitters, this could be a break-out season for the right-hander.

Who’s gone where?

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The first weekend of February is a good time to take stock of the baseball off-season and to get your head around the question of ‘who’s gone where?’.

That led me to go through the essential MLB section on RosterResources.com and to chart out the main additions and losses for every team so far this off-season.

I started with two transactions in mind as the most important and the exercise confirmed that to be the case.

The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians were two of the best teams in the Majors in 2017 and they’ve each made a notable signing this winter to reinforce their status as favourites to battle for the American League World Series spot.

Chris Sale’s trade to Boston from the Chicago White Sox adds an ace to a rotation that already boasted David Price and reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. So long as Sale doesn’t get frustrated and go all Edward Scissorhands on us again, he should be a genuine difference-maker in the AL East.

As for Cleveland, they’ve responded to narrowly losing in the World Series by making an uncharacteristic splash in the free agent market. Few would have put much money on the Indians winning the bidding war for Edwin Encarnacion, but the former Blue Jay is indeed a new member of the Tribe and one of several reasons to be confident that their successful 2016 season will not prove to be a one-off.

What the winter hasn’t provided though is a clear case of a team making a big leap forward into the play-off reckoning.

That’s not a complete surprise as the 2016/17 free agent class was one of the weakest of recent years. Additionally, three of the most appealing free agents had come to the end of their contracts with the Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill and Justin Turner. The Dodgers used their financial clout to keep the trio out of the clutches of any potential rivals and made a small quality free agent pool even smaller.

We should also not forget that the team that made the biggest noise over the previous winter was the Arizona Diamondbacks. To say that their plan – if we can call it that – didn’t work out would be a huge understatement. Winning the off-season doesn’t offer guarantees that you’ll win in the regular season.

However, there have been some interesting transactions completed and here are three teams worth keeping an eye on.

The Houston Astros were a relative disappointment in 2016 after their play-off appearance the previous year. They completed most of their off-season work early, making it easy to forget that they have made some decent additions. Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann have joined a batting lineup that was already one of the better units in the Majors. Whether their pitching staff will take a step forward could be the key question for their 2017 prospects.

The Seattle Mariners’ General Manager Jerry Dipoto should simply referred to as ‘The Trader’. He is always keen on making a deal and has completed plenty of trades this off-season, with the most notable additoins being Drew Smyly, Yovani Gallardo, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Jarrod Dyson whilst Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns and Seth Smith head the list of players that have been moved on. They finished second in the AL West in 2016, albeit a fair way behind division-winners Texas, and we’ll see if the cumulative effect of the trades have made them better or not.

Finally, the Colorado Rockies managed a surprising third-placed finish in the NL West last year, although their 75-87 win-loss record showed that was more down to Arizona and San Diego’s poor play than their own positive performance. Undeterred, they decided to up the ante by signing Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70m contract and then announced that the intention is for him to play at first base. It ranks as one of the more baffling decisions made in recent years, worth keeping an eye on for the ‘so crazy it just might work’ potential it has.

MLB 2016 – American League Preview

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MlbHlSqA new baseball season always creates plenty of excitement, yet 2016 promises to be something a bit special.

There are so many great potential story lines – a part of so many teams that potentially could make it to the play-offs – that it’s difficult to know where to begin in rounding them up.

That’s especially the case in the American League.

Whilst there are teams that likely will be out of the play-off conversation when September comes around (to my reckoning: Baltimore, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Oakland and Tampa Bay), none of them are punting on the season and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that one of them could still be in with a sniff if things go their way.

You can put together realistic scenarios for most of the teams to at least have a shot at the Wild Card. Here are a couple of the main stories in the three AL divisions alongside my predictions (i.e. somewhat educated guesses) as to who will finish where.

AL East

The Toronto Blue Jays clearly had a good team last year and the logic of them winning the AL East division in 2015 made many overlook that this was a club that hadn’t made it to the play-offs since their back-to-back World Series triumphs in 1992 and 1993.

It was a tremendous achievement for John Gibbons and his men and they will hope that having taken that leap they are set for a period of success; however, there’s a shadow hanging over the club that may call that into question. Sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both out of contract at the end of the season and neither have signed an extension as yet, with their own self-imposed ‘start of season’ deadlines about to expire. If that doesn’t change in the next few days, the possibility that two of their core players could both be leaving at the end of the season will add an extra dimension to their campaign.

The Boston Red Sox know that this will be David Ortiz‘s last season as he is set to retire and they will want him to go out on a high note. They’re an interesting team this year. The starting rotation includes plenty of question marks after the newly-recruited ace David Price, but from there this is a roster that should be competing at the sharp end. The thing is, you could have said the same before the 2014 and 2015 seasons and in both cases they didn’t just miss out on the play-offs, they finished dead last in the division. David Ortiz’s send-off is far from the only reason that 2016 has to be different.

AL Central

The projection systems have written off the Kansas City Royals yet again despite back-to-back World Series appearances and capturing the ultimate prize last year.

The Royals are not an extravagantly talented team loaded with stars and instead very admirably have found ways to work around their limitations to be more than the sum of their parts. Their Opening Day starting rotation of Edinson Volquez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Chris Young and Kris Medlen looks underwhelming, for example, but they’re an excellent fielding side and if they can hand over the game to their bullpen with a lead then that’s normally good enough to win the game. Doubting their ability to make it three Fall Classic appearances in a row isn’t unjust; however you shouldn’t be surprised if they do.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are still being looked at favourably despite falling to pieces in 2015 and falling to the bottom of the division. They’ve just become the first MLB team to hand out two $100m+ contracts in the same off-season – signing outfielder Justin Upton and pitcher Jordan Zimmermann – so their worst-to-first intentions are clear. If they get some luck with good health to their key players – and that’s a big if – then they just might do it.

AL West

Look through all the predictions and this is the division that has the most people scratching their head when trying to pick a winner. If in doubt, the best starting place is to look back to how things turned out last season, and that would mean the West being a Texas two-step battle once again.

The Houston Astros’ excellent 2015 was a surprise even to the team itself and they will be an exciting club again this year with Carlos Correa and Dallas Keuchel leading the way. It’s worth remembering, though, that they got off to a dazzling start by winning 15 of their 22 games in April and then played just a shade over .500 the rest of the way (71-69) to an 86-76. They will enter this season with expectations on their shoulders, so we’ll have to say how they carry that load.

The Texas Rangers went in the other direction. They struggled through April and on 3rd of May were bottom of the division on an 8-16 record, 9.5 games behind the leading Astros. The Rangers then swept a three-game series in Houston on their way to a 19-11 May and ultimately swept past their Lone Star State rivals on 15 September to go on and win the division.

All of which means that we shouldn’t overact to how the standings look at the end of the first month. The full 162-game regular season showed that both the Astros and Rangers were good teams in 2015 and, irrespective of their April records this year, that’s likely to be the case again in 2016.

My predictions

AL East – Toronto, Boston (WC), NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, Baltimore.

AL Central – Kansas City, Cleveland (WC), Detroit, Chicago WS, Minnesota.

AL West – Texas, Houston, Seattle, LA Angels, Oakland.

Off-season so far: American League

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MlbHlSqGetting on for two weeks ago we looked at the off-season so far in the National League.

When I made some notes for this article they began by stating that no major deals have happened since that point, yet on Saturday that changed with reports of Baltimore re-signing Chris Davis.

There are still a number of free agents on the market that you would have expected to have signed by now though and they may prove to be a difference-maker, especially if signed by a team in the American League.

Currently, whilst the National League has clear dividing lines between genuine contenders and the rest (at least so it appears, we’ve all learned that MLB is capable of surprising us), it’s much harder to nail your colours to the mast of many teams and say they are clearly better than their division rivals at first glance in the AL.

AL East: Boston bouncing back?

The main off-season story has been the two big moves made by the Boston Red Sox. After finishing dead last with a talented but underperforming roster, they’ve responded by signing the best free agent pitcher in David Price (taking him from the reigning division champions) and trading for arguably the best closer in Craig Kimbrel.

Bitter rivals the New York Yankees hit back by trading for flamethrower Aroldis Chapman and, even though he is likely to start the season serving a suspension for an alleged domestic violence incident, he will help to give them a fearsome bullpen as they hope their group of veterans can hold together for one more year.

As for the Toronto Blue Jays, there’s no doubt that losing Price is a blow to their hopes of retaining their crown, especially with him staying in the division. They haven’t done all that much over the offseason – the main moves seeing a reunion with pitcher J.A. Happ and a trade for reliever Drew Storen – and the plan is to hope for full seasons from Marcus Stroman (injured for much of 2015) and Troy Tulowitzki (a mid-season acquisition who also lost time to injury) and that their batting strength continues to come through for them.

I don’t think any of those three teams will be exceptional, but they all have a chance to win 91-92 games and take the division. I’d rank them as 1. TOR, 2, BOS, 3 NYY for now, although I just have a hunch that the Blue Jays might not quite live up to their 2015 season.

I’m putting the contender cut-off at that point even though Baltimore appears to have made a big move this weekend by re-signing Chris Davis. They went 81-81 with him last year and haven’t yet replaced starting pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (who has signed with the Miami Marlins), so don’t look a good bet to improve. Neither do the Tampa Bay Rays, who haven’t done little this off-season and look set to put together a good but not great team again, whilst still punching above their weight against teams with vastly greater financial resources.

AL Central: Royals reign, but can Tigers roar again?

The Kansas City Royals won the Central handsomely before winning the World Series and they have to be favourites again in 2016. Although they parted ways with mid-season recruits like Johnny Cueto (signed with the Giants) and Ben Zobrist (Cubs), they kept hold of Alex Gordon when he appeared to be leaving as a free agent and have added pitcher Ian Kennedy this weekend on a five-year contract.

Alongside the Royals winning it all, the AL Central in 2015 was marked by the Detroit Tigers collapsing after their run of dominance. That plays into two storylines for 2016.

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians ended up in second and third place respectively, yet being honest you would have to say they were just above average. Neither team has much in the way of money to throw around and they haven’t made significant signings to push forward over this off-season, with the main move being the Twins taking a punt on South Korean slugger Byung-ho Park. The Twins will be looking for youngsters Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton to excel, and the Indians to somehow find some runs to support their strong starting pitching, to try to keep in the running.

That’s going to be difficult because the Tigers have added Jordan Zimmerman to their rotation and revamped their bullpen, including signing closer Francisco Rodriguez. Add in some decent roster additions for depth, including outfielder Cameron Maybin, and they are back to the position of being favourites for second place and a shot at a Wild Card if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez can stay injury-free.

The Chicago White Sox made plenty of moves over the previous off-season and they didn’t have the desired effect. You can understand why they’ve tried again, trading for Todd Frazier from the Reds and Brett Lawrie from the A’s, through wanting to take advantage of having one of the best pitchers in the league in Chris Sale. They need everything to go right to get back into the race and that’s a bit too much to rely on to predict they’ll do it right now.

AL West: Your guess is as good as mine

The West was taken over by Texas Rangers and Houston Astros in 2015 (strange as that is based on their locations, but that’s how the divisions shape up in the AL), so the question is can they stay in front?

They can as neither team has got worse over the winter, yet neither has made additions that would clearly keep them ahead either. The Astros have added Ken Giles as their closer in a trade with the Phillies, whilst the Rangers’ main move actually came before the mid-season deadline last year when they brought in Cole Hamels (also from the Phils).

So what about the chasing pack?

The A’s have completely revamped an awful bullpen and resisted the temptation to trade Sonny Gray, but it would be a stretch to push them too high up the predicted standings based on that. Last year’s third placed team the LA Angels traded for star shortstop Andrelton Simmons and will always be dangerous with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols at the heart of their lineup, although that potential makes it all the more surprising that they haven’t added further (yet) to really take advantage of the talent they do have.

In contrast, the Seattle Mariners have been very active this off-season. They re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma after it looked like he was off to the Dodgers and also traded for Wade Miley from the Red Sox to give them a potentially strong starting rotation. What will define their season is if their position player additions (including Nori Aoki, Adam Lind and Leonys Martin) provide a solid complement to the Cano-Cruz-Seager core, of if they make that trio’s contributions count for little.

I can genuinely see a way in which the Mariners get into the race here, and it’s not completely beyond the realms of possibility that the A’s could as well, so this is the most difficult division to predict. I’ll duck the issue and keep the five teams in their finishing positions of 2015 for now, as Spring Training injuries or late off-season additions could have more bearing on this division than any other.

AL West: Off-season so far

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The AL West is yet another division where the reigning champions have been quiet so far this off-season.

The LA Angels have only completed a few minor deals (bringing in Matt Joyce, acquiring young pitcher Andrew Heaney) and, with significant commitments to the likes of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton already on the books, their primary plan for 2015 is to rely on those who helped them to reach the postseason in 2014.

The Texas Rangers also haven’t done very much, yet they had a disastrous 2014 in which they lost 95 games and parted company with manager Ron Washington. Those losses were largely a consequence of terrible bad luck with injuries, highlighted by their new recruit Prince Fielder. He had played in 1283 of 1296 regular season games in his first eight full seasons as a Major Leaguer before missing 120 games in his first year with Texas due to a neck injury.

They’ve made a handy addition by trading for Ross Detwiler on the cheap and the Rangers will simply cross their fingers for better health in 2015 and see where that takes them. There’s a lengthy list of players that they need to come back fit and strong so it would be a stretch to predict them to be back in the postseason hunt just yet, whilst their state neighbours the Houston Astros also look to be too far out even though they are firmly on an upward curve back to contending in the next few years.

They have added Jed Lowrie as a placeholder for their elite shortstop prospect Carlos Correa and good bullpen arms in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek who can help to stop wins slipping away in the short term and then most likely be dealt to a contender down the line.

That leaves the Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners as potential Angel catchers.

The Oakland A’s reached for the stars in 2014. After surveying the wreckage following the crash-landing, General Manager Billy Beane could have attempted some patch repairs or ditched the whole thing and started again. True to unpredictable form, the A’s have taken neither course.

Whilst free agents like Jon Lester left with no hint of a potential return, other established players like Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss and Derek Norris have been traded away. In their place have come Brett Lawrie, Billy Butler, Ike Davis, Marcus Semien and a number of players who could contribute in some form during 2015 and beyond.

In short, it will be a quite different team in 2015, but not in the sense of a rebuilding job. There are plenty of ‘ifs’ in the equation, yet if enough of those ifs (Brett Lawrie being healthy, Billy Butler recovering from a down season, Drew Pomeranz grabbing a rotation spot and building on the good points of his 2014 campaign etc) come through then a Wild Card run is not out of the question.

As for the Mariners, after acquiring a true star in Robinson Cano over the previous off-season, they’ve gone for a less-substantial version this year in slugger Nelson Cruz. The M’s needed extra thump in their lineup and Cruz will give them that, although his four-year, $57m contract is going to be a painful pill to swallow in 2017 and 2018.

They weren’t far off a Wild Card in 2014 and so they can be in the mix again in 2015; however a glimpse at their roster does raise questions about their depth of talent. If James Paxton and Taijuan Walker come good, perhaps with someone like Mike Zunino or Dustin Ackley taking a step forward with the bat too, then they could be in business.

If they really want to capitalise on their strong core of Cano, Cruz, Kyle Seager, Felix Hernandez and Hiashi Iwakuma in 2015 though, signing another good Major Leaguer or two would be wise and they’ve taken one step towards that over the past week by trading for outfielder Seth Smith. We’ll see if the M’s Front Office can make further improvements over the next couple of months.

 

Winter Meetings create a rumour wonderland

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The MLB Winter Meetings, which begin on Monday 8 December, are a pre-Christmas treat for baseball fans.

It’s the annual event, being held in San Diego this year, where all MLB teams gather alongside agents and some players as they discuss potential trades and free agent signings alongside general housekeeping around rules and procedures.

There were no major deals announced during the event last year – the three-team trade between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels involving Mark Trumbo, Adam Eaton, Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago was the main deal agreed – yet the week plays an important role in setting up deals to be completed in the week or two afterwards.

And, more than anything, hordes of reporters flock to the meetings and generate copious amount of rumours for us to devour.

Free agents

Quite a few of the free agent hitters have already found new homes this offseason.

Deals completed so far include Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez signing for the Boston Red Sox, Russell Martin moving to the Toronto Blue Jays, Nelson Cruz joining the Seattle Mariners and Victor Martinez opting to stay with the Detroit Tiger.

In the past few days, two more names came off the free agent list with Nick Markakis agreeing a deal with the Atlanta Braves and Torii Hunter reuniting with the Minnesota Twins.

Consequently teams looking for position players – which is all of the teams – will be looking for potential trade partners and the free agent activity is going to focus more on the pitchers.

Jon Lester appears to be the most likely pitcher domino to fall first based on the growing rumours around alleged contracts being offered to him. Once Lester makes his decision, those that miss out may well move quickly to capture James Shields as a very capable substitute.

Max Scherzer will continue to play a waiting game unless a team throws a monumental contract offer onto the table this week, although his agent Scott Boras is sure to be a high-profile figure during the Winter Meetings.

AL East bearing its teeth

The New York Yankees broke their unusual silence this on Friday.

First they acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius as part of a three-team trade and then they signed relief pitcher Andrew Miller on a four-year contract worth $36m (just over £111k per week).

The moves are no surprise considering how competitive the AL East is likely to be in 2015.

The Boston Red Sox were woeful in 2014 and have wasted no time in improving their roster with Sandoval and Ramirez joining their lineup and plenty of rumours abounding about potential deals to come.

Meanwhile the Toronto Blue Jays have already added Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to their lineup and, again, reports suggest they are far from finished when it comes to adding new players this offseason.

The Tampa Bay Rays are taking a more considered approach to a probably modest offseason trading period, although they made an important decision this week in appointing 36-year-old ex-catcher Kevin Cash to replace Joe Maddon as their new manager.

Which leaves us looking at the reigning division champions waiting for them to react. The Baltimore Orioles have lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis this week and, even with catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado returning from injuries, that means they have two notable holes to fill, at least, if they are to avoid being overtaken by their division rivals.

Reading list

With the baseball games all dried up – including the MLB Japan All-Star series this year – and Christmas lists being compiled, early December is the main time of year that I spend considering additions to my baseball book library.

The Hardball Times annual is always on my list and I’ve been eagerly dipping into my 2015 copy over the last couple of days since it came through the post.

Even just from the opening three chapters reviewing the American League side of the 2014 season, I’ve learned more about the success the Cleveland Indians have had in recent years through player trades, how the Toronto Blue Jays really missed a trick in failing to improve their roster mid-season, and been reminded of some of the young players that made a mark in the American League such as the Rays’ Kevin Kiermaier, the Angels’ Kole Calhoun and the Astros’ Collin McHugh.

Baseball historian John Thorn’s book ‘Baseball in the Garden of Eden’ has been waiting on my shelf to be read for a while so I’ll be looking to get to that one soon. ‘Baseball Explained’ by Phillip Mahony also looks like being a good contender as a key book for Brits new to the game based on my initial flick through.

I’ll put together some reviews once I’ve had a chance to enjoy reading them over the next few weeks. If you’ve got any other suggestions for books to catch up on, please pass them on.

If the awards matter, why announce them like they don’t?

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MlbHlSqDerek Jeter’s retirement had many scribes pondering who will become the new ‘face of MLB’ and how the sport could do a better job at promoting its stars.

Consequently it was wonderful to see Mike Trout, unquestionably one of the most dazzling young players the sport has got, receiving his first Most Valuable Player Award a couple of weeks ago.

The news stories, online videos and TV coverage garnered by him receiving a trophy from a legend of the game in front of a packed crowd at a gala event would have been a good way to keep MLB fresh in the mind.

That’s not how the awards are dished out in baseball, though.

Instead, there was a bland press release and various TV networks interviewing him on a video link from his parents’ house. From the point of view of demonstrating Trout is really just ‘a regular guy’ then that approach may have some merit.

From the point of view of celebrating a great baseball talent, and convincing people he’s someone special they should be excited about watching, it’s as much use as a chocolate teapot.

A televised gala award evening to celebrate the recent MLB season is a blindingly obvious way to present all the major trophies, reliving the pennant races, the postseason and also all the other smaller stories that made up the year, as well as acknowledging again the people elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame that year.

Getting everyone together in a single place in the offseason might not be the simplest task, but it is certainly achievable and would be a great way to send-off the season in style, whilst getting people excited about next season in the process.

MLB does many things very well. Promoting its players is not one of them.

It was only recently that MLB decided it might be worth making a show of the early rounds from the amateur draft. They are starting to build that up as a televised event now and an end-of-season review extravaganza would be a positive next step to further promote the game’s emerging young stars and established names.

Quite simply, if MLB can’t be bothered to make a big thing of the awards, why would a casual sports fan care about them either?

Evaluating achievements

Irrespective of the ropy way they were announced, this year’s selections for the four main awards all gave reason to consider some of the subtleties around how achievements should be weighted when selecting a winner.

With the MVP awards, the main talking point was the decision to crown LA Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw as the NL’s MVP alongside his now traditional Cy Young award. The fact that pitchers have their own prestigious award, and that they play in significantly less games over the season than a position player, does call into question whether a pitcher should win the MVP award.

The voting criteria makes clear that pitchers are eligible for the award; the case from there is how you measure a position player’s contribution against that of a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers may only take the ball one day out of five, but on that day they have a far greater impact on the game (delivering 100+ pitches) than a position player taking four or five at-bats and making a couple of fielding plays.

Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen both had great seasons, yet neither were exceptionally above Kershaw’s outstanding performance for the Dodgers and consequently that made him a fitting choice.

There were fewer arguments around Kershaw’s NL Cy Young award success. In the AL version it was Corey Kluber who came out on top over Felix Hernandez. Both had excellent years so whichever way you went with those two there was a good case to say you had the right answer.

King Felix clearly has the more impressive track record over a number of seasons, which could be argued as being a crucial factor rather than just focusing on one exceptional campaign. Ultimately there’s a good case that Kluber had the slightly better season – for example, using Baseball-References’ WAR as a guide Kluber added 7.4 wins to his team over a replacement player, compared to Hernandez’s 6.8 – and if the award is there to honour the best pitcher that season then previous seasons should only come into it if there is really nothing else to separate them.

In the Rookie of the Year stakes, Jacob deGrom gave the New York Mets a rare reason to be cheerful and Jose Abreu was a similarly uplifting presence for the Chicago White Sox.

Abreu doesn’t quite fit the traditional image of a young, fresh-faced rookie. He made his Major League debut this year as a 27-year-old having defected from Cuba and came into the Big Leagues with considerable experience of playing in his homeland and on the international stage.

His unanimous selection as Rookie of the Year showed that his strict definition as a Major League rookie regardless of his previous experience was good enough for the voters. Considering the challenge he faced in competing against MLB pitchers and in adjusting to life in the States, it was a decision few could find much fault with.

Finally, the Baltimore Orioles’ Buck Showalter and Washington Nationals’ Matt Williams took home the Manager of the Year honours for the AL and NL respectively.

Showalter’s work with the Orioles has cemented his reputation as an excellent, experienced manager. In some respects this contrasts considerably with Williams for whom 2014 wasn’t simply his first year as a Major League manager, but a manager at any level.

His team led the National League with 96 wins and that’s a good starting point for any discussions on how successful a year a manager has had. Still, the impact that a manager can have in the standings is always largely determined by the roster of players he has at his disposal.

There is a school of thought that Williams made his share of mistakes this year. Had Williams been given his managerial break by the Arizona Diamondbacks – for whom he was a coach for several years before joining the Nationals – or perhaps a team like the Colorado Rockies, then I’m betting he would not have been any part of the Manage of the Year conversation.

The problem with that stance is that you end up penalizing a manager for having the benefit of a talented group of players to call on, as trying to put some subjective value on what a manager brings to a team is devilishly difficult.

Bruce Bochy would have been an obvious alternative for his postseason exploits, yet let’s give Williams some credit for leading the Nationals to 96 wins and wait and see if he can do it again in 2015.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: When the final day may not be the final day

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WHGB11The final day of the MLB regular season is always tinged with sadness.

It’s caused by the realisation that the daily delight of baseball that has been a constant for the last six months is about to reduce to a trickle of playoff games and then a long baseball-free winter.

The one thing you hope for on this day is that there is one last hurrah, a gripping pennant race to be decided that will have you flicking between games and getting caught up in the drama.

The high-water mark of recent times to judge any final day against came in 2011. Here’s how I summed it up at the time:

“It’s just gone seven a.m. and while I’m tired I know there is little chance that I will be able to fall asleep again any time soon.

My head is still spinning from the most incredible end to an MLB regular season you could imagine.  The lack of sleep isn’t helping with my futile attempt to take it all in, but even if I was wide awake, I would still be shaking my head with disbelief and wondering if this has really happened.

In the early hours of Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays somehow snatched the American League Wild Card from the Boston Red Sox

…

It was 5.07 a.m. in the UK.  That’s not a very sociable hour to be cheering or screaming in frustration, but anyone following the action would have found it impossible not to let their emotions get the better of them.

The Rays were one strike away from losing in the ninth inning of their game.  The Red Sox were one strike away from winning their game.  Somehow it is the Rays that have ended up winning the AL Wild Card.

I can’t summon the energy or concentration required to think much about the postseason right now.  All I know is that it has got a lot to live up to”.

I can’t imagine anything could top that final day – or very long night as it turned out to be for us in the U.K. – however the 2014 final day is set up to potentially come some way close to it.

After the games on Saturday there are still three key postseason matters to be decided:

  1. Who out of the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates will win the NL Central, with the ‘loser’ heading to the NL Wild Card game to face the San Francisco Giants
  2. Who out of the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central, with the ‘loser’ heading to the AL Wild Card game
  3. Who out of the Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners will win the second AL Wild Card spot, with the winner facing the loser of the Tigers-Royals race, whilst the loser of the A’s-Mariners race seeing their playoff hopes dashed at the last.

If the results go the right way – or the wrong way depending on who you support – any or all of the three races could be tied after the teams have completed their 162 schedule meaning that a single 163 game decider will be needed.

In all three cases both results need to go the way of the chaser: them to win and their opponent to lose. And just to add to the drama, the key games today are all starting at different times.

In the National League Central race, the Pittsburgh Pirates begin their game against the Cincinnati Reds at 18.10. BST needing to win to keep their division title hopes alive. If they lose then the St. Louis Cardinals will be able to play their game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, starting at 21.10., with the freedom that they’ve avoided the Wild Card ‘play-in’ game. If the Pirates have won their game, all the pressure suddenly sits on St. Louis’s shoulders needing to win their game to clinch the division and knowing a loss will lead to a nervy game 163.

It’s a similar scenario in the American League Central, only in this case it’s the current division leaders, the Tigers, who get underway first. They start their game against the Minnesota Twins at 18.08, one hour ahead of the first pitch between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox.

As with the Cardinals’ scenario, if the Tigers win their game then the Royals’ result will be irrelevant and we would probably be in a situation (subject to the Tigers-Twins games going into extra innings) where the Tigers clinch the division while the Royals are still in mid-game. However if the Tigers miss their chance then it will be an anxious wait for them to see if the White Sox can do them a favour.

The same story could play out in the AL Wild Card race and that is the most tense of them all. At least in the other two races the ‘loser’ will have a Wild Card playoff place to soften the blow. There will be no such consolation prize for whoever misses out between the A’s and Mariners.

Oakland are in the ‘all we have to do is win’ spot and begin their game against the Texas Rangers at 20.05, with the Mariners starting their game against the LA Angels at 21.10. in the ‘we need the A’s to lose and for us to win’ spot.

The different start times mean that it’s possible all three cases will come to a calm conclusion as the evening progresses, with the first result in each deciding everything, yet you wouldn’t bet against the drama continuing right down to the wire.

It should be a great final day to the 2014 regular season, because there’s every chance that it will not be the final day of the regular season after all.