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Weekly Hit Ground Ball: The first Sunday of MLB 2018

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A new MLB season brings with it a plethora of firsts, but there’s none better than the first full Sunday of the regular season.

Every team is playing and all but the ESPN Sunday Night game (Giants – Dodgers tonight) are day-games for us to enjoy at a convenient time in the UK.  The exception to that today is a Pirates-Tigers game being made up from yesterday’s postponement, yet that just means there’s an extra game to enjoy.

Throughout the season I write a regular Sunday morning column about the past week in MLB. I started it off in April 2007 and wouldn’t have imagined back then that I’d still be doing it eleven years later.  I’ve changed the format around a bit over the years, but I’ve always liked the process of corralling my thoughts and picking out the key topics, or just the ones that caught my eye from the games I watched that week.

I’ll be continuing with that approach for the 2018 season, whilst adding in some regular blogs about the Oakland A’s campaign (which, based on last night, could be a long one).

Happ Happy, Jeter not so much

Like many of you, I settled down in front of the TV at 17.40 on Thursday eagerly awaiting the first game of the regular season between the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins. The Cubs’ lead-off hitter Ian Happ wasted no time in getting his season underway by launching the first pitch he saw into the stands for a home run.

I don’t know about the ESPN coverage, but the Cubs’ WGN-TV commentator Jim Deshaies called Happ’s shot and it seemed like the only person who didn’t think Happ would be wailing on the first pitch if it was close was the Marlins’ pitcher José Ureña.

Unsurprisingly the cameras immediately picked out new Marlins head honcho Derek Jeter (not AKA Mr Popular) watching from the stands. The good news for Jeter was that there was a decent crowd on hand – in Marlins terms – and they were in good spirits. The bad news was that most of those in attendance were Cubs fans on vacation.

The only positive for Jeter is that the Cubs fans presumably were less bothered about him than the fans of the next visitor to Marlins ballpark will be: the Boston Red Sox.

Extra thoughts on extra innings

Fears of a 0-162 season in Miami were instantly dispelled on Friday when the Marlins won the second game 2-1. The 17 inning marathon lasted 5 hours 18 minutes and after Miami levelled the scores at 1-1 in the bottom of the third inning, there were 13 and a half score-less frames until Miguel Rojas hit a walk-off single.

Coincidentally the day before this the Guardian had published an article about a brief period in the 1940s when some football competitions adopted a ‘play to a finish’ rule. “Nothing could be more absurd” was how the Guardian put it in 1946 in response to one game lasting nearly 400 minutes and the rule was shelved soon after.

The decision to introduce an extra-innings rule to Minor League baseball this year, with a runner being placed on second base to start each inning, did not go down well among many in the States, albeit with most seemingly oblivious (or not caring) that variations of the rule have been used in international competitions since 2008 and are already used in other leagues around the world (including the leading European leagues).

Outside of MLB, the only argument against some sort of extra inning rule is one governed by tradition as the impact on small playing staffs and other people that are employees or volunteers at the respective game is considerable. There’s more of an argument that the impact can be managed in MLB; the Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon made the sensible suggestion that teams should be able to call-up an extra reliever the day after, for example.

I don’t have a strong view against playing normal rules until you get a winner in MLB; however, I wouldn’t be surprised if some sort of rule is brought in within the next ten years to bring games to a swifter conclusion. How many people actually sat through every pitch of the additional eight innings that were served up on Friday?  Very, very few is the likely answer.

Home runs and more home runs

MLB always does a good job with their Opening Day video package although this time around pitchers would have been given cause to moan even more than usual. Other than a couple of passing shots of hurlers, the video showed a succession of blasts by the likes of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Kris Bryant and more.

Coming after all the cricket kerfuffle around ball-tampering, it was almost as if MLB was trolling everyone whilst denying that the baseball has changed at all in recent seasons.

George Springer followed Ian Happ by launching his own lead-off home run on Opening Day, doing so for the second year running.  WGN-TV’s Jim Deshaies didn’t just say Happ would hit the first home run of the season, he also predicted he would hit the last one in the World Series too.  Keep a note of that if we end up with a Cubs-Astros World Series and have both Happ and Springer in with a chance of starting and ending the year on a home run.

Giancarlo Stanton waited for the second pitch he saw as a New York Yankee before depositing the ball over the fence. That was the first of two long-balls on his debut in pinstripes.

You’d expect such damage from Stanton, but not so much from the Chicago White Sox’s Matt Davidson. He immediately made anyone who drafted him in their fantasy team look clever by launching three home runs on Opening Day, with Chicago adding three more bombs to give the Kansas City Royals a pounding in Game One.

Nick Markakis launched a walk-off home run for Atlanta on Opening Day, as did former Orioles teammate Adam Jones.  The latter plundered his round-tripper off new Minnesota Twins reliever Fernando Rodney. Rodney has continued to pick up saves in closer roles in recent years despite the analytics crowd telling you not to go near him with a bargepole.

He does tend to walk a tightrope in his appearance and the Twins got their first “Rodney, you plonker” experience out of the way early.

Pillar pilfers three bases

It’s not all about the longball though and the Blue Jays’ Kevin Pillar showed that brilliantly on Saturday by stealing second, third and home to beat the Yankees.  That should have gone down well with the Blue Jays’ crowd at the MLB Meet Up in Leeds last night.

The next one takes place tonight in London, so get down to Belushis’ in SH1 if you’re in the area.

Sunday Game To Watch

The MLB event in London was originally scheduled to show three games in Yankees vs Jays, Rays vs Red Sox and Astros vs Rangers, but they’ve added in the Angels vs A’s game too due to it being the pitching debut of Shohei Ohtani.

First pitch is scheduled for 21:05 BST. Naturally, this A’s fan hopes it’s a complete disaster for the Japanese newcomer as the A’s look to split the series 2-2.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Is the Hot Stove about to heat up?

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Compared to the weeks before it, the last seven days have been relatively busy in MLB.

None of the biggest names on the free agent market have found a new club, but there have been some free agent signings plus the deadline for salary arbitration submissions on Friday has created more certainty over payroll commitments and may well help to push the free agent and trade market on next week.

We can but hope.

Bruce to the Mets, Reed to the Twins

Two free agents came off the market with outfielder Jay Bruce reuniting with the New York Mets (after a couple of months with Cleveland) and the news on Saturday that reliever Addison Reed has agreed a deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Bruce signed a three-year, $39m contract and is the type of player who isn’t going to have people doing cartwheels on finding that their team has signed, yet is a decent experienced Major Leaguer and it turns out was available at a relatively reasonable price.

Bruce in the past has been a player who could get you some home runs but didn’t offer a huge amount of value otherwise. However, he had a good season last year combined with the Mets and Cleveland in what was his best year since 2013 with Cincinnati.  Although you may try to chalk that up to it being his ‘walk year’, FanGraphs notes that Bruce did display a new approach at the plate in 2017 and so the hope is he has made an adjustment that will continue to produce results.

The Mets are an interesting team to ponder for 2018.  Last year was nothing short of a disaster and there are so many fitness question marks over their pitching staff that it’s easy to just write them off.  You look at their roster though and you can put forward an argument that a Wild Card run might not be completely out of the question, albeit requiring a fairly long list of ‘ifs’ to work out in the Mets’ favour.

The Minnesota Twins are also a team that many seem to be overlooking.  They took everyone by surprise last season by winning an AL Wild Card in what turned out to be a somewhat weak race and so it’s understandable that there is doubt over whether they can back that up in 2018.

That shouldn’t obscure the fact that they’ve got some real talent on their roster though and Reed will certainly add to that list.  Rumours continue to swirl that the Twins are determined to add a quality free agent starter too this off-season and whilst I’d guess they will fall short in their pursuit for Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb could well fall into their price range and slot in very nicely alongside Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios.

Gerrit Cole

The Gerrit Cole trade story so far essentially goes like this:

  • He was on the verge of being traded to the Houston Astros
  • Then he wasn’t
  • He still might be
  • But he hasn’t gone anywhere yet
  • Although Buccos fans are expecting they’ve seen the last of him in their uniform

The Astros are in the best possible situation with a World Series win behind them, a talented roster in place and a strong farm system of Minor League prospects to deal from if they wish.  Whilst you could justifiably argue they don’t need much in the way of additions, other than an upgrade in the bullpen perhaps, that’s a very strong position in which to trade from.

[LATE EDIT: Cole is now an Astro!]

Arbitration explained

Friday was the deadline for salary arbitration numbers to be submitted and this prompted one reader query around quite how the MLB contract process works.  That’s one of many topics I cover in my Baseball Basics for Brits series, which I’ll be updating over the next two months. Here’s a basic guide to the MLB contract situation and how arbitration fits in.

When a player begins his MLB career he is under contract for six years, at the end of which he becomes a free agent unless he has negotiated a contract extension prior to this.

For the majority of players, during the first three years of their initial MLB contract they receive the MLB defined minimum salary.  This typically increases slightly every year. In 2018 the MLB minimum salary will be $545k (just under £400k). A team is able to pay more if they wish. If they do it tends to be by a small amount – no one wants to pay more than they have to – although slightly larger raises can be paid occasionally if the player is exceptional.  The team may still only pay them a little bit more in that situation – $100k, say – but it’s more a matter of principle than the money itself.

For years 4 to 6 the player becomes ‘arbitration eligible’.  The player is under contract with the team regardless (unless they release him) but how much they will be paid is negotiated year-to-year (again, unless the team and player agree a multi-year deal instead).

The arbitration element kicks in where the two parties can’t come to an agreement.  There is a hard deadline at which both parties must submit the figure they want – this past Friday in this year’s case – and then an independent arbitration hearing will be scheduled.  Negotiations can continue right up until the hearing and in the majority of cases the two parties will come to an agreement.

However, if they still can’t agree then the hearing takes place with both sides arguing in detail why their submitted figure is appropriate.  The main reason why parties like to avoid this situation is that ultimately it results in the team having to explain why the player isn’t as valuable as he thinks he is, which is not a particularly comfortable situation. The arbitration panel will listen to the submissions and then make a decision on which of the two figures is fair.  They can’t just split the difference or suggest something else, either the player ‘wins’ or the team does.

An important part of this process is that there is an underlying principle that a player deserves to be paid more as he gains more service time in the Majors. In other words, if a player had a downturn in performance in his fourth year, he would still get a salary raise for his fifth year, albeit not so much as he would have done had he performed better.

What this means is that salary arbitration negotiations aren’t just about the coming season, but also about future arbitration seasons as – if it ultimately goes to the arbitration panel – the main consideration will be how big a raise from his previous salary that the player deserves.

For example: Team A wants to pay Player X £5m in his fourth year, Player X wants $7m. If Team A ‘wins’ and the player still performs well then the fifth year salary might be $7.5m and the sixth year salary $9.5m.  If the player won then his salaries might go $7m, $9m and $11.5m.  So the initial case wasn’t simply about a difference of $2m but actually a difference of $5.5m.

There are some additional variations on this process, the main one of which to be aware of is that the very best players (as defined by specific criteria set out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement) become arbitration eligible a year early.  These players are known as ‘Super 2’ players.

An elephant never forgets, and neither does agent Scott Boras

One such Super 2 is the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant. Jon Heyman tweeted a message about Kris Bryant and the Cubs coming to an agreement on a one-year deal on Friday to avoid an arbitration hearing and stated that the team would like to do a multi-year deal with the player.

I’m sure they would, just as they would like to do a deal with him down the line to keep him as a Cub for years to come rather than lose him to free agency when that time potentially comes.

However, the latter point is firmly at the front of Bryant’s, and particularly his agent Scott Boras’s, mind.

Let’s not forget, the Cubs royally screwed Bryant over at the start of the 2015 season.  They deliberately delayed his debut for a couple of weeks solely so that he would be unable to accrue a full year of Major League service time in 2015 and his post-six year free agency would therefore be delayed by a whole season.

It would be fair to say that it’s the rules that are really at fault there – given that those are the rules, it was a logical business decision for the Cubs to make – but the Cubs still knew what the longer term impact on the player would be when they made that choice.

Bryant’s deal of $10.85m is a record for a first-time arbitration eligible player and you have to think that there is an acceptance on the part of the Cubs that they have to give a bit of ground in the circumstances.

Game times released

Fans could start doing a bit more planning for the regular season from Wednesday as MLB updated their regular season schedule by adding in game times.

They take on added importance to us based on the convenience of watching live games with earlier start times.  The details are subject to change, so you shouldn’t get too tied to first pitch times too far ahead, but we should be able to rely on the current start times for the opening series being accurate.

As already known, Opening Day on Thursday 29 March is going to be a baseball feast with the first game – Chicago Cubs at Miami – from 12.40 Eastern Time (17.40 our time) and the final two games – Cleveland at Seattle and Colorado at Arizona – getting going at 10.10pm ET (03.10 am for us).

Fans of 24 teams will be able to catch their opener at a convenient British evening time.  The San Francisco and LA Dodgers are the other two starting at night US time (7.08 ET, 00.08 am for us) making it six teams for whom their UK fans will need to be up in the early hours to see their season opener live. That shouldn’t be too much of a hardship though, especially as it’s Good Friday the following day.

If one of those final two games goes 3.5 hours we’d be looking at 13 solid hours of baseball by which to welcome MLB back.

Sounds good to me!

One win away from the World Series for Yankees and Dodgers

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This year’s MLB post-season has once again brought the term ‘bullpenning’ into frequent use as teams get what they can from their starting pitcher before turning the game over to the relievers.

However, the next two play-off games will have a clear focus on two starting pitchers.

Thursday night’s game is Game Five of the NLCS from Wrigley Field. The Chicago Cubs took Game Four on Wednesday to avoid a 4-0 series sweep, but they’re still in trouble against the Los Angeles Dodgers and all the more so because tonight they face Clayton Kershaw.

Among some outstanding hurlers, Clayton Kershaw’s record over the past five or six seasons has earned him the right to be called the best starting pitcher of his generation. The play-offs haven’t been quite so kind to him so far, yet talk of ‘struggles’ is overblown.

Whatever the past, tonight is a perfect opportunity for him to put together a signature Kershaw start and to help the Dodgers book a place in the World Series for the first time since 1988.

On Friday night Justin Verlander will be taking to the mound at Minute Maid Park as he tries to prevent the New York Yankees from joining the Dodgers in the Fall Classic.

The Houston Astros left their home a few days ago with a 2-0 series lead and full of optimism; however the home-team-wins pattern continued in a raucous Yankee Stadium where the Bronx Bombers have reeled off three victories.

This scenario is precisely why it seemed so strange that the Astros didn’t augment their starting pitcher corps prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. That has to be caveated by not knowing fully how high the asking price was for them from various teams, yet given their great regular season and strong farm system of young talent it was hard to imagine a team in a better position to add one more arm to give them a great shot at their first ever World Series title.

They finally managed to get Verlander minutes before the waiver deadline at the end of August and they couldn’t have wished for anything better from their new addition since he has arrived.

Now they need him to give them one more vintage Verlander start, ideally of six innings or more given that the Astros’ bullpen hasn’t been quite as impregnable as others, to keep the series alive.

Verlander putting up zeroes has become more important due to the white-hot Houston bats mysteriously turning snow-white cold during the ALCS. Although Masahiro Tanaka had to pitch out of some jams in Game Five, he was still able to put together seven strong innings against what had hitherto been a formidable line-up.

The added bonus for Yankees manager Joe Girardi, and added jeopardy for the Astros, was his ability to send Tommy Kahnle out for two innings to complete the game. With Thursday as an off-day, that leaves him with a full arsenal of lethal bullpen weapons to throw at the Astros when Game Six comes around on Friday. Luis Severino was yanked from his Game Two start early due to a potential injury – something the pitcher felt was unnecessary – so there’s an element of doubt there for the Astros to latch on to.

However, if he gets through even four innings then Houston could have a problem.

Predictions are always a coin-toss at this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a baseball-free weekend with both the Dodgers and Yankees earning the all-important fourth win at their next – and in New York’s case first - attempt.

When blocking the plate blocks common sense

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The Sunday night game is Game Two of the NLCS between the Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers.

Compared with the Yankees-Astros series, this NLCS is not so easy to follow for British fans as only one game from the series is currently scheduled to start before midnight UK time and that’s the potential Game Six on Saturday 21st. It would start at 9pm BST as the opener before Game Seven of the ALCS; however if the Yankees-Astros series is over by that point then the Cubs-Dodgers game would get moved to the prime-time slot and back into ‘early hours’ territory for us.

The Cubs will be looking to even up the series on Sunday after taking a 5-2 loss in the series opener. Jon Lester and Rich Hill are the scheduled starting pitchers, landing another jab in the ribs to me and fellow A’s fans who seem to be staring at ex-Oakland players in every game this October.

Blocking the plate

The big talking point from Game One came in the seventh inning when the Dodgers’ Charlie (‘not Corey Seager’) Culberson was initially called out at home plate before the replay crew called him safe on review, judging that Cubs catcher Wilson Contreras blocked the plate illegally.

As soon as the play was challenged, commentator Ron Darling (one of the best around based on his SNY Mets work) was fearing that “the silliest of rules” was about to ruin an excellent fielding play. He called it right when reviewing the footage that Contreras clearly put his leg across to block Culberson’s path to the plate before he received the ball, but in doing so wasted little time in putting across the players’ view that the rule is wrong.

When the rule on what a catcher can do in that situation was changed in 2014, it immediately gained the informal name of the ‘Buster Posey rule’ given that it was the injury suffered by the Giants’ star in 2011 that many feel was the catalyst to it.  Joe Maddon’s opinion that had it been a third-string Atlanta Braves catcher nothing would have happened unfortunately is probably true, but fairly or not rule changes often only come about when a high-profile incident occurs.

Whether you like the rule or not is a personal choice. I never understood why it was acceptable for a base-runner to be able to smash into the catcher to try to dislodge the ball, so I’m fine with the rule as it is now, although I’d be inclined to defer to the wishes of the players when it comes to making a rule changed based on player safety, given that it’s their bodies that are on the line, and it’s not only the ex-players that don’t like the rule.

However, what can’t be debated is that the rule is clear and what Contreras did contravened it.

You see it a lot in football where former-players on TV criticise off-side decisions or ‘hard-but-fair’ tackles and then brush away the laws of the game as a mere technicality getting in the way of their opinion.  The job of the officials is to call the game based on the rules as they are, not based on what some people think they should be.

The replay review unquestionably led to the right call being made and the commentators generally struck a fair line in acknowledging this point whilst expressing their disagreement with the rule that the umpires have to uphold.

However, the exception came when Cubs manager Joe Maddon came onto the field and started screaming at the on-field umpires.

“Joe Maddon, rightly so, is out of his mind but by the letter of the rule book you’ve got to give him a lane, he didn’t”.

In one sense I understood that, as Maddon clearly was not alone in thinking the rule is stupid and that it had therefore cost his team. Yet to say he was “rightly” out of his mind is a bit of a stretch.

Maddon’s response to his antics after the game was to say: “I have to stick up for my boys … I’ve got to stick up for everybody that plays this game. I thought it was inappropriate”.

The run made the score 5-2 to the Dodgers in the seventh inning, so the Cubs were still in the game with a couple of innings still to be played. Where is the sense in getting yourself chucked out of the game at that point to scream in the face of the on-field umpires who hadn’t made the call and who would have been right even if they had?

Maddon was entitled to rant all he liked about it in the press conference after the game; that’s fine if that’s how he feels. But at that moment his job was to keep his composure and help mastermind a way to lead his team out of the hole, not to “stick up for everybody that plays this game” in some ridiculous display of honour.

It was then no surprise that Contreras’s response after the game was to double-down on his manager’s own self-righteousness:

“I think that was the wrong call,” Contreras said. “I will not change anything. If I have to do that again, I will do it again. They have to change everything. Not me”.

Well, Wilson, if you want to cost your team again then that’s up to you. It wasn’t the wrong call, however much you may disagree with the rule. If the series is on the line in Game Seven, presumably Maddon will be more than happy for his catcher to do the same thing. They can walk off the field defeated but with heads held high that they ‘played the game the right way’.

What a load of nonsense. It’s no different to someone deciding that the ball hadn’t gone over the fence, but it should be called a home run anyway (in fact, the Yankees’ Todd Frazier cheekily tried that one on in yesterday’s Game Two of the ALCS when the ball got lodged in the fence before the umpires called him out of the dugout and back to second base – nice try though, Todd).

Like it or not the players and managers know the rule and so long as it is in place they have to play with it in mind. The aim is to win a World Series, not to win a battle against the rule-makers.

MLB 2017 Final Day: Everyone gets to play in October

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It’s always a shame when we get to the final day of the MLB regular season and there is nothing significant still to play for.

Looking through the standings, the only potential thing to ‘win’ would be the first draft pick in next year’s amateur draft, which goes to the team with the worst win-loss record.

The San Francisco Giants (63-98) are one loss ‘better off’ than the Detroit Tigers (64-97) in the race to the bottom. If the Giants foolishly go and win today against the San Diego Padres and the Tigers lose then they’ll be matched on 64-98.

Normally with tie-breaker situations you look at the results of the games the two teams played against each other, but I’m not sure quite how that works here.

The Tigers won their inter-league series 2-1, which should mean they finish higher, although in the circumstances they might feel that the victory should result in them finishing last so they get the number one pick. Such is the weirdness that creating an incentive to finish last leads to.

Anyway, despite the Tigers’ protestations, I suspect that the Giants do have the worst record sewn-up already on that tie-breaker (I was going to look it up, but thought better of it), so we are where we are and can enjoy the final day as simply a day of baseball with not much riding on it.

Division winners

Looking at the almost-final standings, you can’t escape the conclusion that the teams most people thought would win the six divisions heading into the year have done so.

Neither the LA Dodgers and Washington Nationals had a strong challenger on paper and so it proved, whilst the Chicago Cubs also came through with a handy gap in the end despite the NL Central being harder work for them than we might have thought.

The Cleveland Indians blitzed the AL Central, in no small part thanks to their incredible 22-game winning streak, Boston kept the New York Yankees at bay in the East and the Houston Astros took all the fun out of the AL West (for the other four teams at least) by going 38-16 across April and May and never looking back. An 11-17 August counted for little, particularly when they responded with a 20-8 September.

Wild Cards

The above is partly the whole point of having the Wild Card round. We had predictable division winners this year because they were all blatantly going to be really good teams and were only going to be beaten if they had a disaster or two to give someone else a chance.

That’s not a bad thing in my book. Whilst surprises are always fun, ultimately you should want there to be impressive teams that rack up wins in the regular season and make their eventual clashes in the post-season all the more enthralling.

The Wild Card, especially the second Wild Card, adds something else to the play-off pot.

It creates the potential for other strong teams to get in, such as the Yankees this time around. Despite the negatives you can throw at the Wild Card play-in game from a fairness point of view, the AL East was a great example of one of the main positives.

There is a huge potential difference between winning the division and going straight through to the best-of-five Division Series, compared with flipping a coin in the lose-and-you’re-out Wild Card game. Potential is the key word there, as if you manage to win the Wild Card game your odds of winning it all aren’t all that much lower than the other Division Series competitors. However, the risk of your play-offs only lasting one game means that the division is always worth fighting for now, which wasn’t the case when there was only one Wild Card per league.

NL W(ild Card)

The second Wild Card means that if there are three strong teams in one division in a given year, they could all have a chance of making it to the post-season.

That’s happened this year in the NL West. The Colorado Rockies were a somewhat surprising third-placed finisher last year behind the Dodgers and Giants, yet their 75-87 record to get there – after losing 96 and 94 games in the previous two seasons – gave reason to be cautious about being too optimistic for their hopes in 2017.

In fact, it proved to be indicative of the potential that was there at Coors Field and they’ve fully earned their first play-off appearance since 2009.

The Rockies’ progress in 2017 is nothing compared to that of the team that will be hosting them for the NL Wild Card on Wednesday. 2016 was a disaster for the Arizona Diamondbacks after they made big moves in the off-season – spending $206m on Zack Greinke and a king’s ransom in a trade for Shelby Miller – only to lose 93 games. Various people lost their jobs as a result, but there was still some talent at the club and the potential for a quick return to respectability.

They far exceeded that and enter the final day of the regular season with the joint-sixth highest win total across the Majors with 92. No one can say the D-Backs haven’t earned their play-off appearance.

Twins and the AL Wild Card game

As for the Minnesota Twins, well, some people aren’t being quite so generous in their praise of the second AL Wild Card winners.

They’ve earned their spot because they’ve got the fifth-best record in the American League and five teams qualify for the play-offs from each league. However, they enter the final day with a win-loss record of 84-77.

In football people often say the league table doesn’t lie at the end of a season; in other words, where you end up is generally a good reflection on how good your team was.

MLB takes that further by playing a 162-game regular season. Randomness can still come into, but by and large that’s more than enough time for the cream to rise to the top, the chaff to be separated from the wheat, and the middling middlers to settle in the middle.

It is fair to say that Minnesota are more middly than creamy.

That doesn’t matter in the least for the Minnesota Twins, who can smile away any jibes by knowing there are 20 other teams that would love to be in their position. They’ve made it to the play-offs a year after losing 103 games. They’ve won 25 more games than they did last year and can make it 26 if they win on Sunday. That’s a real achievement for Paul Molitor and his team.

And as for the AL Wild Card game

The problem some have with the Wild Card game in a situation like this is that a team that has earned a significantly better record over 162 games than their opponent can be knocked out by losing one game.

There’s no escaping that this isn’t completely fair, but there’s one important thing to note about it this year.

The New York Yankees have won more World Series than any other team and broken more hearts than anyone else along the way too. The ‘Evil Empire’ moniker isn’t being thrown around quite so much now as it had been the previous 10-15 years, but there’s a reason why it became a thing in the first place. Yankees fans, like fans of any all-conquering team, understand that people love to hate them.

So if it does happen and the Twins do dump the Yankees out on Tuesday night – and it certainly could – then whilst the strict analysts may bemoan it, the rest of us can have a good chuckle about it.

#ThumbsUp

MLB Sleepyhead Summary: Twins = Wins

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The MLB Sleepyhead Summary is a new regular column that helps British baseball fans keep up to speed with MLB despite the time difference!

The Minnesota Twins started last season by losing their first nine games.

An 0-9 start isn’t much fun for anyone, but when you have the word ‘wins’ in your nickname, you’re going to hear about it even more than most.

They briefly responded to the jeers by reeling off four consecutive wins, but that’s where the comeback ended. 2016 was a miserable year for Minnesota as the team ended up with a 59-103 record, the worst in all of MLB.

Unsurprisingly, expectations were not exactly high for the Twins to mount a play-off challenge in 2017, yet they continue to confound the naysayers as we head into the last two weeks of August.

The Twins have won 11 of their last 13 games, including a sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks this past weekend (Sunday’s win driven by a nine-run first inning), to draw themselves level with the LA Angels for the second Wild Card spot. Baseball Prospectus currently gives them a 33.4% chance of making it to the post-season, which would be a fantastic story if they can pull it off.

Minnesota have a chance to earn some wins this week at the expense of the AL’s worst team. They have a five-game series away to the Chicago White Sox, beginning with a double-header on Monday, and if they can build on their 7-4 season record so far this season against the Sox they could start to win over even more of the non-believers.

More AL Wild Card shuffling

The Angels beat Wild Card rivals the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in this weekend’s series, with the Orioles’ sole win being powered by the outstanding individual player performance of the weekend. Manny Machado launched three home-runs, the final one being the small matter of a walk-off grand slam, in a thrilling 9-7 victory.

The Angels move on to a four-game series against rivals the Texas Rangers, whilst the Orioles look to gain back some ground in a home series against the Oakland A’s.

Elsewhere in the AL, the Boston Red Sox – fresh off a series victory against the New York Yankees – have a potential play-off preview four-game series against the Cleveland Indians, whilst those Yankees have a three-game set against Detroit.

Seattle and Kansas City will both look to gain ground in the AL Wild Card race by picking up some wins against National League opposition. The Mariners continue their road trip with a visit to Atlanta, whilst the Royals are hosting the Rockies for three games starting on Tuesday.

NL Central race may also become part of the NL Wild Card race

In the National League, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the tough task of facing the LA Dodgers four times across Monday to Thursday. The Buccos are now six games back in the NL Central having recovered from a six-game losing streak to win the final two games of their series against the St Louis Cardinals. They need to keep on picking up some wins and that’s not something any team has found easy against the Dodgers this season.

The Cubs and Reds split a four-game series last week and meet up again, this time in Cincinnati, for another three games from Tuesday to Thursday. Meanwhile the Cardinals are hosting the Padres for three games at Busch Stadium and the Milwaukee Brewers are in San Francisco taking on the Giants.

The Brew Crew won two of three at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies this past weekend and, coupled with the Twins’ sweep of the D-Backs, the play-off picture in the National League is potentially changing. Whereas even just a week ago it looked like the NL Central teams were battling for one play-off spot, Arizona now only has a 2.5 game gap over Milwaukee for the second Wild Card, with the Rockies one game further ahead.

This means that although the Cubs earned back a small gap at the top of the NL Central thanks to their weekend sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays, the Brewers, Cardinals and possibly even the Pirates might have a second chance at making the post-season aside from clawing back the gap at the top of their own division.

MLB Sleepyhead Summary: Yankees sweep whilst the Rangers keep winning

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The MLB Sleepyhead Summary is a new regular column that helps British baseball fans keep up to speed with MLB despite the time difference!

Yankees sweeping up New York

The New York Yankees have had to sit back and take the jibes over the past few seasons as the New York Mets got to a World Series in 2015 and became the team everyone was talking about in the Big Apple.

That must have made this week’s Subway Series sweep all the more satisfying.

The Yankees won all four games against the Mets in one of the weird inter-league series that has two games at one venue, followed straight away by two games at the other. It makes more sense in a single-city match-up than it does when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros are paired together, as happened this week, at least.

That sets up this weekend’s series against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium perfectly, with the Red Sox leading the AL West by four games after defeating the St Louis Cardinals twice (victories including a triple-play and a three-run rally in the ninth inning).

You would be forgiven for assuming that the third game will be the ESPN Sunday Night contest, but they will be showing the Cardinals-Pirates game from the Williamsport Little League site, so instead we can catch the game at 18.30 BST. Sonny Gray, who got his first win in pinstripes on Tuesday, and Doug Fister are the probable pitchers for Sunday.

Rangers making a run for it

The team that’s really on the march right now is the Texas Rangers.

They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games, including a three-game sweep over Detroit and defeating the Chicago White Sox on Thursday in the first game of a four-game series.  The White Sox have lost their last five games and have the worst win-loss record in the American League, 45-73, so it’s a prime opportunity for the Rangers to continue their climb towards an American League Wild Card.

Whilst the Yankees have a 3.5 game gap for the top Wild Card, the rest of the group is very closely bunched, with the LA Angels currently holding the second spot and then seven teams sitting within three games of the Halos.

WC – NY Yankees (65-55) 3.5
WC – LA Angels (62-59) –
Kansas City (61-59) 0.5 Games Back
Minnesota (60-59) 1
Seattle (61-61) 1.5
Texas (60-60) 1.5
Tampa Bay (60-63) 3
Baltimore (59-62) 3
Toronto (59-62) 3

To illustrate how close it is, the Baltimore Orioles currently have five teams ahead of them before they get to the Angels, but if they can sweep their three-game series against LA this weekend they’ll have the same record as the team currently holding the second Wild Card. The Mariners have a chance to climb as they take on the out-of-form Tampa Bay Rays this weekend, whilst Kansas City and taking on the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians.

The Toronto Blue Jays are still in with a shout of an AL Wild Card despite their terrible start to the season and they go into their weekend inter-league series against the Chicago Cubs on the back of winning three of four against the Rays.

NL Central remains close

As for the Cubs, they split a four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds this week, losing the final game 13-10 despite slugging six home runs. Jon Lester had a day to forget, giving up nine runs in 1.2 innings before leaving the game with an injury. All three games against the Blue Jays at Wrigley Field are 19.20 BST starts. Friday’s game should see Jake Arrieta and J.A. Happ on the mound.

The Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates last night in the first of an important four-game series. The Pirates have now lost five in a row, including both games of a short two-game series against Milwaukee on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Cubs now hold a one-game lead over the Cardinals, and a 1.5 game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Pirates have slipped to 5.5 games back and whilst there’s still plenty of games left to play, getting some wins back against the Cardinals this weekend will be crucial to avoid the gap increasing.

Milwaukee have bounced back from an indffierent spell coming out of the All-Star break. They’ve won four in a row heading into this weekend’s series in Colorado against the Rockies.

Cards-Cubs showed that picking up the pace is a worthy goal

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The knocks baseball takes from those inside the sport about games being too long can get tiresome.

Manny Machado was the latest player to throw such comments around following his non-playing attendance at the All-Star Game. As reported by the Washington Post:

“It was a little boring to watch it,” Machado said. “I don’t know how people go out there and watch games. Now I know why sometimes people don’t come to games”.

Most athletes don’t like watching their sport in events or games that they could have been playing in, and the All-Star Game is an exhibition after all, so I’m not going to criticise Machado too much for his off-the-cuff comment. However, the idea that games can be boring and go on too long gets thrown around a lot.

The comments are at odds with the amount of people that turn out to stadiums every year and watch on TV and whilst ensuring the next generation enjoy the sport is important, the ‘baseball is doomed’ hyperbole does a disservice to the great talent on show and the excitement MLB generates every season.

There are 2,430 regular season MLB games every year and it’s to be expected that not all of them will live long in the memory. Even the Premier League, the so-called most exciting football league in the world, serves up its share of stinkers.

I do have some sympathy with the overall pace of play agenda though.

A four-hour game can be an enthralling watch, but it’s when pitchers take ages between deliveries and batters mess about after every pitch that the ‘dead time’ increases and the game can feel like it’s dragging along.

The same happens in most sports, from tennis players that have to get their towel then bounce a ball 10 times before every serve, to cricket teams that can’t bowl their overs at a decent rate (essentially every international team nowadays). Maybe I’m being harsh, but it often comes across as if those players think they’re the most important thing and everyone else has to wait for them.

It’s fine to take a few seconds to compose yourself at a crucial point in the match; doing it all the time is annoying and absolutely can make people change the channel to something else.

David Price is a classic case in point. He’s a great pitcher and if he’s producing results for your team then you won’t care how deliberate he is. For everyone else, it can be very frustrating to watch. On the flip side you have a pitcher such as Dallas Keuchel. I can’t say I enjoy watching him mow down my team in double-quick time, but I do appreciate the way his approach creates a great tempo to a game. Commentators always pick up on the impact this has on the infielders and keeping them alert. I don’t know how true that really is, yet I could imagine how it could be a help.

Last night’s game between the St Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs was one of the most enjoyable I’ve watched so far this season. Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright were on the mound, two guys who generally are on the speedier end of time between pitches, and they were on top of the hitters, with Lester taking a perfect game into the sixth before Wainwright himself broke it up.

There were no runs scored until the eighth inning when the Cardinals hit back-to-back jacks (the first by Paul DeJong who made a spectacular fielding play at shortstop earlier in the game) to take a 2-0 lead, only for the Cubs to hit back with three runs in the bottom of the frame, with Kris Bryant racing around from first base on a Rizzo double for what proved to be the winning run.

The game finished 3-2 to the Cubs and took just over two and a half hours to play. It was a classic pitchers’ duel and you can’t expect them every game, even with two quality starters on the mound. There will always be games that take longer, sometimes exciting and sometimes not.

However, it does make a difference when a game moves along at a decent clip. The game isn’t boring, and certainly isn’t ‘dying’, but encouraging everyone to play their part in just quickening up a bit – including the potential of shortening advert breaks, which MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said is being looked at – is a good idea.

MLB returns for 2017

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Here we are at last: baseball is back.

Whilst Andy Williams may sing that Christmas is ‘the most wonderful time of the year,’ the start of the MLB regular season is every bit as exciting for those of us that follow the sport.

It feels a long time coming, even with all of the off-season trades, signings and rumours, and the fact that the 2016 season ended up with a thrilling World Series makes the anticipation all the stronger for it all to get going again.

Who’s going to win?

No sport is predictable, least of all one with a regular season containing 2430 games, yet it’s fair to say the 2017 MLB predictions currently going up online are following a similar pattern.

There’s no hiding that the five National League play-off teams from last season are most likely to be playing post-season baseball again this year.

The reigning World Series champions Chicago Cubs are the team to beat in the Central, with the Washington Nationals and New York Mets, and the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, looking good to battle it out for the East, West and two Wild Card spots.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to be uneventful, even if those teams do come out on top.

As for the outsiders, the St Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are the obvious teams that could get in the Wild Card mix. The Arizona Diamondbacks could get into the running too if their bad luck from 2016 turns to good luck in 2017. It will also be worth keeping an eye on the rebuilding Atlanta Braves who have now built their new ballpark and are getting closer to building a team that can get them back to their glory days.

The American League looks more open, other than the strong likelihood of the Cleveland Indians winning the Central division (with the Detroit Tigers probably set to trade a few players away before the August deadline).

There are genuinely three teams that could win the AL East, never mind compete for a Wild Card, in the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. It’s possible the New York Yankees could also make a play-off push if their young players continue to impress enough to make the team make some further additions in the summer.

There could also be three teams in the mix in the West. The Texas Rangers are the team to beat, but arguably they over-performed with their 95 wins last season and both the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners have been active over the off-season.

For what it’s worth, I’m going for:

NL East: Mets, NL Central: Cubs, NL West: Dodgers, WC: Nationals and Giants.

AL East: Red Sox, AL Central: Indians, AL West: Astros, WC: Blue Jays, Orioles.

Getting ready for Opening Week

1. Make sure MLB.TV is up and running

BT Sport offers plenty of games across the season so that there is a good TV option for UK-based fans; however ‘plenty of games’ isn’t the same as ‘all the games’ and that’s what makes MLB.TV such an essential purchase for me.

Monday will show that straight away as MLB.TV subscribers can flick between a whole host of early starts during the British evening. I’ll then be able to get up in the early hours and watch the Oakland A’s season-opener too.

Rule #1: there’s no such thing as too much baseball.

2. Book some days off work

Okay, not much use as a ‘to-do list’ for you reading this now, but hopefully you’ve already planned ahead. I book up the first few working days of the MLB season as annual leave as soon as I can to make sure I can enjoy the first few evenings (and early mornings) without having to get up to go to work straight after.

3. Check out the schedule for the first week

This will be my twelfth season running BaseballGB and regular visitors will know that one of the features here is a guide published every Monday setting out the ‘early’ games (day-games in the States and that are in the evening UK time) for the week ahead.

There are 25 early starts from Monday to Friday this coming working week. I refer you back to rule #1!

4. Sort out my Oakland A’s schedule

Much as I try to catch all of the teams on a regular basis, my primary focus is on the Oakland A’s.

The first two series in my Oakland A’s schedule

I’ve printed out an A’s game schedule for April that lists the games with start times in BST, blocks them into each individual series against different teams and highlights the day-games.

The A’s have eight series in April and all but one – a mid-week three-game set in Anaheim near the end of the month – have at least one day-game scheduled.

I find it’s useful to have those set out so that you can plan around them and work out when best to add in some early-hour contests too (if, like me, your work gets in the way of watching every one).

5. Set your fantasy team(s) for the first week

It’s not just the regular season you need to focus on, the fantasy season is important too.

I’m not the most obsessive fantasy baseball player and my in-season strategy predominantly involves simply making sure I don’t make too many mistakes in leaving players on my active team that aren’t playing. So, setting up my pitching staff for the week ahead, mindful that plans may still change mid-week, is a key preparation job for me to remember.

Sunday’s triple-header

Although Monday will feel like the true Opening Day, the recent switch to a triple-header on a Sunday to start the season was a great move. Here are the games we can enjoy:

18.10. Yankees at Rays (Tanaka – Archer) *BT Sport/ESPN
21.10. Giants at Diamondbacks (Bumgarner – Greinke) *BT Sport/ESPN
01.35. Cubs at Cardinals (Lester – Martinez) *BT Sport/ESPN

Tropicana Field isn’t the most aesthetically pleasing place to get the season started, but the play on the field should soon make us forget the surroundings. Tanaka faced the Rays five times last season and was dominant against them, whilst Archer’s 0-3 record against the Yankees in 2016 conceals how well he pitched against them.

Zack Greinke and the D-Backs will be intent on putting a hugely disappointing 2016 behind them and they would get an immediate confidence boost if they can get the better of MadBum and the Giants to start the season at Chase Field.

Finally, the Cubs enter an MLB season as reigning champions for the first time since 1909 and where better to celebrate that than at the home of their bitter rivals. I’m sure St Louis will be gracious hosts.

Is the Price right?

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Boston Red Sox fans were left reeling during the week when news broke that pitcher David Price was suffering from pain in his elbow and forearm and was being examined by surgeons. Invariably such news leads to a diagnosis of an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery and a year on the sidelines.

In this case, the news turned out to be more positive. Price will rest the elbow for at least 10 days and it seems that he may be able to avoid surgery, although you can expect the Red Sox to take a very cautious approach and that he is more likely than not to miss some time at the start of the regular season.

This comes just one year into Price’s seven-year, $217m contract with Boston. One of the factors behind the huge investment on the Red Sox’s part is that Price has been so durable in his Major League career. Between 2010 and 2016 he has averaged 32 starts and 218 innings per year.

However, like most other stats, you can interpret that in a positive or negative way. Does this consistency make him a strong bet to continue to pitch 200 innings per year, or has the workload taken a toll and increased the risk of him breaking down in future?

The truth is, nobody really knows in any individual case. The sensible approach is to bet on players that have demonstrated a proven ability to stay on the field and hope that continues, rather than expecting a player who has struggled with injuries in the past to suddenly shake-off their sick note status.

Although Red Sox don’t normally like looking towards the New York Yankees, they do provide a recent example that offers cause for optimism.

Masahiro Tanaka cost the Yankees $175m in 2014 (a seven-year contract and a $20m fee to his Japanese club Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles) and he landed on the Disabled List just four months into his Major League career with a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow. This is the exact injury that normally requires surgery and a lengthy lay-off, but Tanaka went down the rest and rehab route (alongside an injection in the elbow) and has made 55 starts over the past two seasons whilst slightly altering his pitching arsenal to reduce strain on the elbow.

So although the news on Price may feel like it’s just delaying the inevitable surgery, it’s quite possible they’ll still get 170 innings from him (plus a play-off start or two) in 2017 after all. Few Red Sox fans thought that would be the case last Thursday.

Contracts under consideration

More widely, both players demonstrate the calculated gamble teams have to take if they want to commit to long-term deals to sign elite pitchers.

An interesting article was published on Vice Sports last June about insurance in MLB. It includes a quote from the Red Sox’s team chairman Tom Werner that they “have insurance on some players, not all players”. That was in reference to their decision not to insure Pablo Sandoval’s five-year, $95 million contract. I’ve not uncovered any definitive info on whether Price’s contract is covered, and that they would essentially get money back if Price missed significant time. It’s the type of large contract a team would want to get insurance on, but clearly the cost of doing so would be significant.

Jon Heyman’s recent article on FanRag looks at a potential future contract for Bryce Harper (he’s due to become a free agent at the end of the 2018 season, and due to get an absolute boatload of money) and includes the following comment on the potential 2018 free agent class:

“It’s no wonder some teams are lining up for 2018, with Harper and Orioles star Manny Machado at the top of a brilliant free-agent class that also includes Zach Britton, Matt Harvey and many other stars.”

I can’t be the only person who raised an eyebrow at the inclusion of Matt Harvey’s name in that group. There’s no question he has star-level talent, but there’s also no question that he has a troubling injury record, missing all of 2014 due to Tommy John elbow surgery and then the second half of 2016 after having surgery to correct his thoracic outlet syndrome (surgery that involves having a rib removed).

Harvey is making his first Spring Training start today (Sunday) and MLB.TV subscribers can watch that from 18.05 GMT. The buzz around every Harvey start should make every baseball fan (aside from those of the team he is facing on a given day) want him to return to form and fitness. If he can do that over the next two seasons then he will indeed be in line for a big pay-day; however, that’s a very big ‘if’ based on recent history.

Even if there isn’t a recent major injury scare to consider, taking the plunge on a large free agent contract for a pitcher is a risky business.

One of the few signs of trouble that Chicago Cubs reporters have been able to latch onto so far this spring is starting pitcher Jake Arrieta’s impending free agency at the end of this season. The above-referenced Heyman article notes that the Cubs don’t seem minded to extend an offer beyond a four-year contract and that Arrieta likely will be off.

The smart Cubs Front Office probably thinks there are better ways to spend the $200m Arrieta is seeking than on a pitcher who turns 31 tomorrow, although the first-year return on Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184m contract shows that even multi-year contracts for position players are a risky bet.

The one thing that is certain is that any player can suffer a serious injury, so it’s hard to criticise a player for seeking the biggest guaranteed pay-day whilst they can.