Category Archives: ‘Weekly’ Hit Ground Ball

Matt Smith’s Monday morning column, looking back at the previous week in MLB and looking ahead to the ‘early’ games scheduled for the week ahead

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Draft decisions

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Whilst the Biogenesis drug investigation dominated the baseball headlines last week, the more positive major story of the week came in the form of the annual amateur player draft.

In recent years MLB has done a better job of making the first draft day seem like more of an event. Baseball’s draft will always live in the shadow of the NFL and NBA equivalents, due to the low profile of the players being drafted and the length of time (often 3 years or so) it takes for them to make it to the Major Leagues.

However, MLB had acted as if they knew they couldn’t compete with the NFL and NBA hoopla and therefore didn’t bother to even try. Prior to its television debut in 2007 this important event, the first stepping stone for the stars of the future, was simply conducted on a conference call.

Many baseball traditionalists spit on the floor at the mention of the word ‘Moneyball’, yet, whilst it didn’t portray some old-time scouts in a particularly flattering way, the book unquestionably raised the profile of the amateur draft, which continues to be the most important event of the year for scouts.

It could also be argued that the ‘Moneyball’ culture – intelligent and objective analysis of data to inform good decision making – has made the draft all the more crucial.

With teams becoming ever smarter, there are fewer opportunities to ‘win’ a lopsided trade and to acquire talent relatively cheaply.   It’s increasingly difficult to win in MLB without successful drafts, whether to bring through your own young players or to have attractive trade chips to acquire established Major League players that can be difference makers when you most need them.

The free agent market can still provide a means to add quality players to a roster; however teams are doing all they can to sign their best players to extensions before their contracts expire, and in an increasing number of cases before the player is anywhere close to becoming a free agent. The Cincinnati Reds’ decision to sign MVP first baseman Joey Votto to a 10-year, $225m contract extension in March 2012 is arguably the most eye-catching example of a team that isn’t a major financial powerhouse investing a considerable sum to lock up their cornerstone player for years to come.

As the potential premium free agent class reduces in number, so the price to acquire such players goes up. Just as importantly, those players may not reach free agency until later in their careers if they have opted to take up the offer of a guaranteed contract during their arbitration years, which teams often agree to if they can buy out some potential free agent years in the process.

Albert Pujols is one of the greatest hitters in MLB history and when he hit the free agent market in the 2011/12 offseason his track record suggested he deserved one of the most lucrative free agent contracts ever signed. That’s exactly what he accepted from the Los Angeles Angels (10-year, $240m), but the big compromise the Angels had to make in acquiring Pujols was in signing him to the contract a month before his 32nd birthday.

The second half of that contract will see the Angels paying Pujols $140m during his age 37 to 41 year old seasons. They will be paying him for his exceptional performances for the St. Louis Cardinals many years earlier rather than for his contributions to the Angels at the time.  You can call it inefficient spending or ‘not much bang for your buck’, either way it’s in stark contrast to the value you can receive from a young player, even before you factor in the way a fanbase can be energized by an exciting homegrown talent coming through, such as the Matt Harvey effect with the New York Mets this season.

The Houston Astros selected pitcher Mark Appel with the first overall pick in the 2013 draft. Appel might have been the Astros’ Number One pick last year if signability concerns (i.e. how much money he wanted) hadn’t dropped him to the eighth pick, where the Pirates drafted him and were unable to come to a financial agreement.  If the Astros can strike a deal with Appel then he will join last year’s Number One pick, shortstop Carlos Correa, in a rapidly improving farm system that should bring Houston back into playoff contention in a few years’ time.

Rewarding failure in this way isn’t a perfect situation, especially in cases such as the Astros where they are deliberately slashing their Major League payroll and fielding a relatively weak team. However, the process does mean that the big spenders can’t keep on snapping up all the best talent and gives the current weaker teams reason to be optimistic that they can compete in the near future.

Number One selections Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Bryce Harper (2010) have been instrumental in raising hopes for pennant-winning baseball in Washington, whilst David Price (2007) has been one of a gaggle of young players that have turned the Tampa Bay Rays from a laughing stock to a genuine contender in the AL East division despite the presence of the powerhouses that are the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

Baseball fans in Pittsburgh have had little to cheer over the past 20 years, but they’ve had a promising start to the 2013 season with a group of good young players and pitcher Gerrit Cole, their Number One selection in the 2011, is due to make his Major League debut on Tuesday.

It’s also the case that you still need to make good decisions wherever you are picking and selections in the draft can play an instrumental role in shaping a team’s future. The Detroit Tigers had the second overall selection in the 2004 draft and the team’s fortunes since then may have been markedly different had the San Diego Padres not taken Matt Bush as the Number One pick.

More pointedly, the Padres may have been a completely different MLB team in recent years had they called Justin Verlander’s name that fateful day.

All 30 teams will be hoping they made a Verlander pick, rather than a Bush pick, in the first round this year.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: End of May MLB Rankings

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The St. Louis Cardinals have moved up to the top of my rankings, whilst their nearest NL Central challengers at the end of April have gone in the opposite direction.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (previous rank 5)

The Cardinals had the best record in the Majors during May (20-7). Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller led the starting rotation to a very strong showing over the course of the month, whilst a sluggish offence in April really turned things around in May. Losing pitcher Jaime Garcia for the season due to shoulder surgery is a blow, but the Cards have shown in the past that they can use their organizational depth to absorb injuries.

2. Texas Rangers (3)

The Rangers keep on rolling. Jurickson Profar, considered by many to be the best prospect in baseball, rejoined the team in May when Ian Kinsler was placed on the Disabled List. Just like St. Louis, they have the depth to take injuries on the chin and should get stronger as the season goes on with Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz working their way back from injury.

3. Cincinnati Reds (4)

As expected, the Reds are going to be in a fierce battle with the Cardinals in the NL Central all season long. Cincinnati swept three-game series over the Brewers, Marlins and Mets to help them to the second-best record in May (19-8, one win behind those Cardinals), with an impressive offence led by the outstanding Joey Votto.

4. Atlanta Braves (1)

The Braves put together an eight-game winning streak during May on their way to a 15-13 month. Jason Heyward and Brian McCann both came of the Disabled List to join the offence in May. The bad news came from the bullpen where several faltering performances were coupled with both Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty undergoing Tommy John surgery.

5. New York Yankees (13)

Curtis Granderson’s return from the Disabled List lasted only eight games before a different injury, this time a fractured knuckle, sent him away again. Andy Pettitte also joined the pinstriped throngs on the treatment table, but the month ended positively with both Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira joining the team and it continues to be the case that the longer this banged-up team keeps themselves in contention, the greater the chance that they’ll be a real force as we get to the business end of the season.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (8)

Two separate six-game winning streaks during the month – admittedly one of which included a four-game sweep over the Miami Marlins – powered the Rays to an 18-10 May. The starting rotation suffered the loss of David Price due to a strained left tricep, but the offence more than picked up the slack.

7. Detroit Tigers (7)

Miguel Cabrera was the joint-leader in the Majors with 12 home runs during May as the Tigers’ offence roared despite Austin Jackson landing on the Disabled List and Victor Martinez’s continuing struggles at the plate. Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister and Max Scherzer were the leading lights in the Majors’ best starting rotation during May.

8. Boston Red Sox (12)

The talent and experience is there to give Boston a chance; however there remain doubts as to whether enough players will hold up over the course of the season. During May, the Red Sox lost closer Joel Hanrahan to Tommy John surgery, Andrew Bailey (now back with the team), Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks also went onto the DL whilst Clay Buchholz was held out of a start before being scheduled to take the mound on Sunday night against the Yankees.

9. Baltimore Orioles (9)

The O’s went 15-13 in May despite suffering a six-game losing streak. Chris Davis launched 10 homers in the month, Adam Jones homered in all four-games against the Blue Jays near the end of the month and Manny Machado has started to draw comparisons with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper as one of the very best young players in the Majors.

10. Oakland A’s (14)

The A’s won 12 of their final 14 games in May, including 3 of 4 against the San Francisco Giants, to make for a 16-12 month, after Brett Anderson, Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick headed onto the DL in the first week. No team has been happier than Oakland to see the Houston Astros join the AL West this season: the A’s are 9-0 so far against the Astros.

11. San Francisco Giants (6)

It’s been an interesting season so far for the Giants. They are hanging in there but it has been the offence that has been doing most of the heavy lifting, rather than the pitching staff that has been such a strength in recent years. Their luck was summed up by Ryan Vogelsong. He finally looked like he had found something through five good innings against Washington on 20 May, only to be hit by a pitch and to fracture a finger, putting him out of action for four to six weeks.

12. Arizona Diamondbacks (15)

D-Backs fans might take issue with being behind the Giants in these rankings, seeing as they lead them in the NL West rankings. Patrick Corbin was a perfect 5-0 in five starts during May (1.53 ERA) and Brandon McCarthy was pitching well too before he hit the DL with right shoulder inflammation. Paul Goldschmidt has continued his excellent start to the season and started June off in grand style with a grand slam off the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol on Saturday.

13. Cleveland Indians (21)

The Tribe completed four-game sweeps over both the A’s and the Mariners as they went 18-12 during May to keep the pressure on Detroit in the AL Central. Jason Kipnis led the offence during the month and Justin Masterson continued his good start to the season, going 4-1 from six starts with a 3.02 ERA. The bullpen wasn’t at its best though and Chris Perez poor form culminated in him being sent to the DL.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates (22)

A 19-9 May, capped off by taking three of four against the Detroit Tigers at the end of the month, keeps the optimism high in Pittsburgh that this might finally be the season when the losing-season streak, and hopefully the playoff drought, comes to an end. One thing they do have in their favour is an in-form bullpen, with Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon proving to be an excellent eight and ninth inning partnership.

15. Washington Nationals (2)

May wasn’t a disaster for the Nats (15-13); however the cracks are starting to show in what looked like being an all-around excellent roster. The offence has not fired at all and that will be exacerbated by Bryce Harper’s knee injury that has put him on the disabled list. Add on Stephen Strasburg’s recent lower back pain, likely to see him join Harper on the DL, and confidence levels will have taken a hit from their pre-season standing as favourites for the NL pennant.

16. L.A. Angels of Anaheim (16)

An eight-game winning streak showed that there is still life left in the Angels, although you could argue that the opposition (White Sox, Mariners and Royals) wasn’t exactly the elite of the league. The wins count regardless of the quality of the opposition so the Angels won’t care about that. What they will care about is that they’re still firmly under .500 and they need to string together four good months from now on. Getting Jered Weaver back from injury is a positive sign and Mike Trout was exceptional in May.

17. Philadelphia Phillies (19)

Cliff Lee pitched extremely well for the Phillies during May – 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA in six starts – and Domonic Brown had an impressive month power-wise with 12 homers (his .303 OBP shows he didn’t do much at the plate when he wasn’t leaving the yard). Other than that there wasn’t too much to cheer, particularly with the Youngs – Delmon and Michael – hurting rather than helping the team and Chase Utley landing on the DL.

18. Chicago White Sox (20)

The White Sox have two figures of hope in Chris Sale and Jake Peavy leading the rotation and both Jesse Crain and Dylan Axelrod provided some good work from the bullpen in May. The pitching contributions simply haven’t been enough to overcome a stagnant offence so far. Alex Rios was probably their best hitter in May and his batting line of .280/.325/.486 with four homers is decent without being particularly inspiring. Unless the likes of Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and Jeff Keppinger can turn their seasons around, it could be a year when good pitching goes to waste.

19. Colorado Rockies (25)

After an eye-catching 16-11 record in the first month, the Rockies went 12-16 in May to drop them back a bit but still leaves them exceeding expectations so far. With Troy Tulowtizki and Carlos Gonzalez leading the way at the plate they’ll have a chance to stay somewhere in the reckoning if they get some luck with injuries. Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge de la Rosa have been positives on the mound and we’ll have to wait and see whether Roy Oswalt – signed by Colorado on a Minor League deal – can work his way back to the Majors.

20. L.A. Dodgers (11)

The big-spending Dodgers went 13-13 in April which seemed a disappointment at the time considering the expectations on the team; however it was relatively successful compared to their 10-17 May, beginning with an eight-game losing streak that had the rumour mill going into overdrive regarding manager Don Mattingly’s future with the club. Matt Kemp hit just one home run whilst struggling to a .291 OBP during May before a groin injury put him on the Disabled List. Brandon League has also had a tough month out of the bullpen.

21. Toronto Blue Jays (10)

The Blue Jays and Dodgers go hand-in-hand; dramatic off-seasons raised expectations that have been nowhere near met due to injuries and poor performances. Jose Bautista started coming to life in May, but the team hasn’t showed many other signs of improvement that would create hope for a turn around.

22. San Diego Padres (28)

The Padres had a decent May with a 15-13 record that has stated to move the team forward. The big problem has been with the pitching staff, where Jason Marquis, Andrew Cashner and Huston Street all struggled through the month, with Street’s May ending with a trip to the DL. Chase Headley has performed well since coming back from injury and both Jedd Gyorko and Everth Cabrera, the latter leading the NL with 19 stolen bases, have made good contributions too.

23. Seattle Mariners (24)

Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley were seen as two talented young position players that could turn around the M’s faltering offence of recent years. Unfortunately an eight-game losing streak culminated in those two players being demoted to the Minor Leagues as Seattle continues to work out how they can put together a roster that can help Felix Hernandez to the playoffs. Hopefully the M’s Front Office can start to find the answer over the coming months, but it’s extremely unlikely that King Felix’s postseason debut will come in 2013.

24. New York Mets (23)

In a season when expectations are justifiably low, fans have to latch on to seemingly small victories as a source of great comfort to get through the season. Matt Harvey has been a shining light in that respect and a four-game sweep over the New York Yankees, including getting the better of the great Mariano Rivera, certainly counts as something to celebrate in a season when there will plenty more losses than victories.

25. Kansas City Royals (18)

Oh dear. A 14-10 April provided reason for optimism in Kansas City only for a dreadful 8-20 May to put the Royals into a tailspin yet again. Hall of Famer George Brett has accepted the call to take over as the team’s hitting coach, but when you’ve gone this long without winning it’s easy for heads to drop. ‘Here we go again’ is likely to be the overwhelming feeling in KC right now.

26. Minnesota Twins (26)

A ten-game losing streak made for a long May in Minnesota. They did win six of their last eight to end the month on a positive note, but the lack of quality pitching in their starting rotation makes it difficult for the team to find consistency regardless of the ever-impressive efforts of Joe Mauer.

27. Chicago Cubs (27)

The Cubs took three wins against White Sox in the battle of Chicago, but those victories mirrored the reaction of the Mets: good wins to hold on to considering there has not been much else to get excited about. Matt Garza has come off the DL to add another good arm to the rotation, whilst Kyuji Fujikawa went the other way with the relief pitcher being yet another player undergoing Tommy John surgery.

28. Milwaukee Brewers (17)

The Brewers ended April with a 14-10 record and were in second place in the NL Central, just 0.5 games behind the Cardinals. What a difference a month can make. Milwaukee lost nine of their first ten games in May and ended it being swept in a four-game series by the Minnesota Twins, landing them with a terrible 6-22 record for the month.

29. Houston Astros (29)

Two six-game losing streaks during May saw the AL newcomers go 10-18 in the month.

30. Miami Marlins (30)

The rebuilding continues in Miami. May brought a seven-game losing streak and a nine-game losing streak as they matched the Brewers’ MLB worst record of 6-22 during the month.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Baseball at the Etihad Stadium?

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I was planning to take a Bank Holiday break with my Monday morning Weekly Hit Ground Ball column; however the recent news of a tie-up between Manchester City and the New York Yankees deserves a mention.

The main news concerns the creation of an expansion team in Major League Soccer called New York City Football Club (NYCFC). Man City will be the majority owners – it’s fair to say they’ve got the money – and the Yankees will be “an active member of the ownership group”.

This past week saw Man City and Chelsea play two exhibition games in America, one in St. Louis and then one in New York. Watching the teams playing football at Busch Stadium and Yankee Stadium made for a slightly odd sight, but it did provoke the thought that if English teams can play football in baseball stadiums, why not bring a couple of baseball teams over here to return the compliment and play in football stadiums.

Baseball teams have a long history of playing on English football grounds, be it British teams using these facilities or teams crossing the pond for exhibitions, such as the New York Giants and Chicago White Sox playing in front of a crowd including King George V at Stamford Bridge in 1924. With the NFL, NBA and NHL all having played games in London in recent years, it would be great to see MLB following suit.

Of course, there are significant logistical issues in bringing MLB teams over to Britain.

A football stadium doesn’t offer ideal dimensions within which to set out a Major League standard field. MLB players might be prepared to put up with this for a couple of exhibition games, but it wouldn’t provide the best backdrop from which to showcase the sport, from the point of view of the fans in the stadium or those watching on TV.

Ideally MLB would want to come to Europe to play games in a dedicated ballpark. The impressive new facility currently taking shape in Hoofddorp, just outside of Amsterdam, would be the most likely setting for any games in this continent.

Even with a ballpark to use, finding a space in the calendar would be the biggest obstacle. Spring Training would make sense from the perspective of the teams but, as British teams know only too well, expecting ‘baseball weather’ in Blighty during March would require a substantial amount of optimism on the part of the organizers. The same could also be said for the Netherlands and it would be more likely that regular season MLB games would be brought over around the All-Star break. If the teams were playing ‘games that count’ then that would increase the desire for any games to be played in an actual ballpark with ‘normal’ baseball dimensions.

However where there’s a will – and money – there’s a way. Maybe the Yankees will enthral Man City owner Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan so much that he will reach down the  back of one his sofas and find some loose change to build a ballpark in or around Manchester. We can but dream.

In the meantime, here’s a mocked-up image of what the Etihad Stadium would look like with a baseball diamond at one corner.

The short left-field wall wouldn’t appeal to the pitchers, but it looks a good sight for the rest of us.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Upton away

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Every football fan knows the feeling of foreboding created by an ex-striker of your team coming back home to face you for the first time since their departure.

Whether you try to put him off through jeers or try to win him over with cheers, you know he’s going to score against you. Returning strikers always do.

Fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks must have had that exact same feeling last Monday when Justin Upton returned to Chase Field for the first time since being traded to the Atlanta Braves over the off-season.

A ground-out and a single in his first two at-bats suggested his first game back wouldn’t be too explosive. Then in the sixth inning Wade Miley hit B.J. Upton with a pitch as brother Justin waited in the on-deck circle.

That was Miley’s first mistake. The second came on a 2-0 change-up that Miley left up in the zone.

Justin Upton absolutely hammered it over the high wall in centre field for a two-run bomb; a swinging statement if ever there was one.

The D-Backs’ determination to trade away the gifted younger Upton brother remains one of the most perplexing roster decisions of recent times. It’s the sort of move that you would expect to be shrouded in rumours of the player being a ‘clubhouse cancer’, but reported comments from former teammates show that couldn’t be further from the truth. Arizona’s Front Office simply decided the organization was better off trading Upton for other pieces.

The team has had a promising start to the season, with Paul Goldschmidt really coming into his own as a leading hitter in the National League and Gerardo Parra reveling in a starting role manning the spot in right field that had previously been Upton’s. Martin Prado, the main established Brave that came Arizona’s way in the trade, has struggled so far and we’ll have to wait several years before finding out if the Minor League prospects they obtained will come good.

Whatever the thought process was behind the trade, the early returns from Arizona’s perspective have been decent and the Braves are certainly not complaining either. Upton has been everything they’d hoped he would be, leading the Majors in homers with 14, whilst Chris Johnson has been a more-than-useful contributor so far too, including whacking a two-run longball of his own against his former team on Monday.

Maybe it will turn out to be a trade in which both teams ‘win’. Still, I’d sooner have Justin Upton in my team for the next few years and his home run on Monday may well not be the last time he makes Arizona regret their decision to part with him.

One brother to another

Justin Upton’s blistering form has been a big help to his older brother. B.J.’s early days with his new team have been distinctly underwhelming. Signed to a five-year, $75.25m contract over the offseason, B.J. Upton was ‘hitting’ just .145/.237/.239 heading into the Braves’ game on Sunday,

His struggles have shown that spending money on a leading free agent doesn’t guarantee you instant returns. If you’re going to spend money to improve your roster, it has to be done as part of a wider plan to make sure that an injury or loss of form for your new recruit doesn’t completely scupper a season.

The Yankees’ fountain of youth

The Toronto Blue Jays thought they had followed that line of thinking to the letter when they brought in a whole host of new players over the offseason. Unfortunately for them, even the best laid plans can unravel.

Despite a four-game winning streak at the start of the last week, the Blue Jays sit dead last in the AL East. They lost the first two games of their series in New York before Sunday’s game was rained out, putting them ten games behind their opponents in the standings and 1-7 against the Yankees so far this season.

What is it about those magical pinstripes that brings the best out of players? Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner are the latest three discarded veterans to have found a new lease of life in the Bronx.  The Yankees haven’t yet found a lucky charm to turn around their Disabled List misfortunes, Andy Pettitte being the latest addition to the crowded treatment room, but Curtis Granderson made his season debut last week and both Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis shouldn’t be too far behind in returning to the field.

If Wells and co can continue to keep this team firmly in contention, the Yankees could really come on strong in the second half. My prediction that the Yankees will win the AL East might not turn out to be such a reach after all.

Harvey backs up the hype

The Yankees’ surprisingly strong start to the season isn’t quite the biggest baseball story in New York. That award has to go to the New York Mets’ young phenom Matt Harvey.

A day-game against the Chicago Cubs on Friday provided the perfect opportunity to watch Harvey at work and, after a slightly wayward first inning, he settled in and showed exactly why everyone is talking about him. Harvey even showed a flair for the dramatic by breaking a 2-2 tie in the seventh inning when he singled home the go-ahead run that decided the game and improved his win-loss record to 5-0.

ESPN America took the SNY feed for the game and co-commentator Keith Hernandez provided an insight into what Harvey is like as a character. Hernandez noted that whilst the young pitcher is keeping his head down among more experienced team mates, inside there is a steely confidence that drives his determination to not simply be a quality Major League starter, but to be the very best.

He’s got a long way to go to get there, but the early signs are that he has all the tools necessary to give it a good shot.

Reward for Rizzo

Finally, the only Cubs batter to get an extra-base hit against Harvey was Anthony Rizzo. He had an excellent week off-the-field too as the Cubs announced he had signed a seven-year contract with the team worth at least $41m (£26.6m).

It’s a well-deserved deal that will provide financial security for the player who, after his enthusiastic play for Italy during the recent World Baseball Classic, can surely be claimed by us as an honorary European.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Umps in a slump

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Man Utd fans would beg to disagree, but no sports group has had a more trying week than the MLB umpiring fraternity.

The season had not begun well for the umpires.

Marty Foster made one of the most mindboggling incorrect strike calls against the Tampa Bay Rays’ Ben Zobist in a game against the Texas Rangers on 9 April. It was an odd error of judgement made all the worse as it ended the game and made for a very unsatisfactory way for closer Joe Nathan to log his 300th career save.

Foster didn’t duck from the incident, admitted his mistake and his regret that he couldn’t go back and re-do things.  It showed his decency and met our expectations that no one feels worse than the umpire when they get an important call wrong; however it did nothing to quell the growing feeling that in this day and age there’s no reason why technology should not be used to stop such a blatant error determining a result.

We’ve all seen balls-and-strikes calls go against our club and nothing is more frustrating, especially if a player ends up getting ejected for showing displeasure when they know they’ve been wronged. Still, it’s a split-second decision that is nowhere near as easy as it may look.

A Baseball-Reference blog post in 2010 put the average pitches thrown by a team as 146 per game. With 290 instant decisions to make, you have to accept not every single one will be correct and it’s likely bad luck, rather than anything more meaningful, if one of those happens to come at a potential crucial moment.

Whether that acceptance means living with the errors or allowing them to be reviewed is a matter of personal preference, with arguments on either side.

However there can be no arguments with the two umpiring mistakes witnessed this past week.

The botched review of Oakland A’s infielder Adam Rosales’s double/home run on Wednesday was so calamitous that it must lead to changes in the instant replay process. Whatever MLB might want to do – such as issuing an ‘oh well, mistakes happen’ press release and trying to leave it at that – their Commissioner’s Office has to be seen to do something in response.

The incident was exactly what the replay system is there for: a decision at a crucial moment (A’s trailing by one run in the top of the ninth inning) that was difficult to call with one look in real time. It is completely unacceptable that the umpiring crew, led by Angel Hernandez, could get that decision wrong by reviewing the footage and not ruling that the ball hit the railing above the yellow line and was therefore a clear home run.

The decision was so inexplicable that Peter Gammons gave credence to the possibility that it may have been an act of protest by the umpiring crew against the use of replay.  That’s something I’m sure would be vehemently denied by all concerned, although the only other realistic explanation – gross incompetence – isn’t something that MLB and the umpires would want to admit to either.

It is believed that an expanded form of instant replay reviews will be introduced in 2014. If so, this incident highlights two things that need to be changed as part of any expansion. Firstly, the decision should be made by a fifth umpire (probably from a central office rather than posting an extra official at every game) and secondly we should be able to see exactly what is being looked at as part of the decision-making process. That’s how it works in cricket and rugby: you can follow what camera angles are being used and see the additional official replaying and focusing in on specific things.

The current method of the umpiring crew leaving the field, huddling in their little ‘ump cave’ and reviewing the play in secret whilst everyone else twiddles their thumbs none the wiser as to what the umpires are looking at is completely farcical and needs to end.

The last thing MLB umpires needed was another glaring error and unfortunately for them one followed the very next day.

Fieldin Culbreth and his crew incorrectly allowed Houston Astros’ manager Bo Porter to change relievers in their game against the Los Angeles Angels before the reliever originally brought in, Wesley Wright, had thrown a pitch to a batter.  Angels manager Mike Scioscia was furious and his team played the rest of the game under protest, ultimately put to bed due to his team coming back to win the game.

It was a genuine mistake by the umpires, but it was right that the crew were disciplined for it (I don’t think fining umpires for such a mistake is the most appropriate way to go, but that’s how it works).  Getting split-second judgement calls wrong in the heat of the moment is one thing, incorrectly applying a rule when you have ample time to discuss it as a crew and to get it right is just not on.

All of which made it a week in which the credibility of MLB umpires, who normally do a good job, took a real hit.

With so many people clamouring for expanded replay, and with the increasing likelihood that it will be on its way, that’s something they can ill afford.

There’s a general sense that some umpires feel their authority is being compromised and that may account for a few of their number being especially precious about players ‘showing them up’, as seemed to be the case a week ago when John Hirschbeck ejected Bryce Harper in the first inning of a game.

However, the fact that they have a tough job does not mean umpires should be allowed to make mistakes and if they want to continue to have the respect of players and fans (the latter often coming grudgingly) then they have to continue to earn it.

Mistakes like they made this past week really won’t help their cause.

 

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Pennant winners

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Baseball writer Joe Posnanski and Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane are united in their belief that Major League Baseball could learn from the Premier League when it comes to rewarding successful teams.

They are drawn to the simple logic of recognising champions on the basis of their entire season, rather than solely a handful of games at the end.

It is odd when you stop and think about it; each team battles their way through 162 gruelling games in a marathon season and all it counts for is a ticket – for 10 of the 30 teams – into the playoffs.  Whilst the additional Wild Card round, introduced last year, has recaptured some of the importance of winning a division, there’s still a curious imbalance to the overall season.

The team that plays the best over six months gets little for their efforts. It’s the team that gets hot at the right time over, at most, 20 games or as little as 11 games that takes all the glory.

Just ask the Washington Nationals. For all the pride they should feel in winning the most games (98) in the 2012 regular season, they received little credit for the achievement.

Up until 1969, the best team in each league was suitably rewarded. You had to outplay the rest of your league to be crowned a pennant winner and that gave you the chance to face the best team from the other league in the World Series to be crowned as the best in baseball. That changed in 1969 when each league was split into two divisions, creating the division series stage of the postseason, and has evolved over time to the current 10-team set-up.

Posnanski sees the playoffs as something that fits with the American psyche, but you only have to drop down into the second tier of English football to see why playoffs are so appealing. They guarantee a dramatic end to every season and, in creating additional opportunities for glory, ensure that more teams have something to play for as the season enters the closing stages.

The playoffs unquestionably add plenty of excitement to MLB – Posnanski and Beane certainly are not advocating scrapping them completely – but that shouldn’t come at the expense of giving little recognition to the team that won the most games in each league.

The best team in each league does get the benefit of avoiding the Wild Card ‘play-in’ game and having home field advantage in the Division and League Championship Series, but why not add to that to make the regular season count for something as a competition in its own right.

Why shouldn’t the ‘pennant winner’ be the team with the best regular season record rather the team that wins the League Championship Series?

Just as in the pre-1969 days, winning the pennant would come with a slightly hollow feeling if it wasn’t followed by a triumph in the World Series, but at least a team’s success over the course of the season would be acknowledged in a way that currently isn’t the case.

Trouble in Toronto

A pennant win and a trip to the postseason look a long way off for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The 2013 Blue Jays were always going to look similar to the 2012 Miami Marlins after the two teams completed their blockbuster trade in mid-November.

Five regular starting players from the 2012 Marlins made their way over to Toronto and even though one of those – catcher John Buck – was shipped on to New York before suiting up in a Blue Jays uniform, fans could be forgiven for looking at the players and getting confused.

Wasn’t this the team that was put together to win in Miami?

Sadly for Toronto fans, the similarities between the two teams do not end with the names on the back of the uniforms.  Just as the bubble quickly burst in Miami, the sky-high expectations in Toronto seemingly have been dashed before we’ve even made it far into May. Heading into Sunday’s games, only the Houston Astros had a worse record in the American League than the team pegged by many to be a World Series contender.

The Blue Jays can bemoan some bad luck with injuries to key players. Losing Jose Reyes for several months was a big blow and it’s also reasonable to assume that the ailments R.A. Dickey is battling through are the main reason for his 2012 Cy Young form deserting him.

However, Josh Johnson’s trip to the DL can hardly be seen as a surprise considering his recent injury history and, more than anything, there are teams throughout the Majors having to deal with injuries to potential key contributors right now. The New York Yankees are the obvious example of a team that has still managed to keep afloat in the early going despite their ship heading into the rocks and taking on plenty of water.

With so much of the season left to play, it’s foolish to completely write off a team that still has talented and experienced players on their roster. It’s not impossible for the Blue Jays to win enough games from here to grab a Wild Card, but the signs of a dramatic resurgence don’t seem present.

Toronto’s plight, replicating the Marlins’ flop of a year ago, once again shows that ‘winning the offseason’ doesn’t necessarily count for much. If your team does go all out over the winter months and grabs plenty of headlines, it might actually be wise to bask in the attention and to enjoy the optimism while it lasts.

Recent history suggests you may as well celebrate your team winning the offseason as it’s likely to be the only thing you’ll have to celebrate that year.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: End of April rankings

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We’re now nearly at the end of the first month of the 2013 MLB regular season.

That’s nowhere near enough time to make definitive judgements on how the year will pan out, but it does give us a bit of info on which to upgrade preseason rankings.

Here are how my rankings look as of today, with the previous ranking displayed in brackets after each team’s name. I’ll update my rankings again at the end of May.

1. Atlanta Braves (4)

The Braves have been as good as advertised. Justin Upton has been sensational in his first month in Atlanta and although the team, as expected, is racking up the K’s at the plate, the offense is still very productive. Combined with their pitching staff, they are going to take some beating.

2. Washington Nationals (1)

Not quite the blistering start expected, but that doesn’t change the fact that top to bottom they have a very good roster that will win a lot of games this season. Bryce Harper doesn’t turn 21 until 16 October and it’s very possible he may have had an MVP-worthy season by then, which is testament to his immense talent.

3. Texas Rangers (12)

I’ve moved them up a long way and that’s really a reflection on me ranking them too lowly to begin with. Their pitching has been terrific, led by Yu Darvish who looks like he could be developing into a genuine MLB ace in his second season. With more arms coming back later from injury in next few months (Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, Neftali Feliz), their outlook is promising, especially with Angels and A’s showing weaknesses early in the season.

4. Cincinnati Reds (5)

So far Shin-Soo Choo has done exactly what the Reds acquired him to do: fix their gaping on-base hole at the top of the lineup. Losing Ryan Ludwick to an injury three innings into the season-opener was a blow but one they can cope with and so long as Johnny Cueto’s current injury doesn’t linger, the Reds’ pitching will be a real asset once again.

5. St. Louis Cardinals (10)

I’m moving the Cards up my rankings as they quietly go about their business, taking injuries on the chin and always finding players to step into the breach. Matt Carpenter is the latest example and if they do lose injured closer Jason Motte to Tommy John surgery you wouldn’t be surprised to see another player in the Cardinals’ organization filling the gap successfully. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright has started the season in ominous form.

6. San Francisco Giants (7)

Matt Cain has been curiously hittable in April and the Giants’ pitching staff overall has been fairly average so far, which isn’t what we’ve come to expect. Still, you wouldn’t bet against the arms coming good and the offence once again should do enough to take this team into the playoffs.

7. Detroit Tigers (3)

With Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal (‘17Ks’) Sanchez and Doug Fister the Tigers have a fearsome four in their rotation that more than counterbalances the relative struggles of Rick Porcello and the retrograde step of bringing back Jose Valverde. Torii Hunter has had a good first month with Detroit and you would expect Victor Martinez to recover from his disappointing first month, coming as it does after a year on the sidelines.

8. Tampa Bay Rays (9)

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Rays. I expect David Price and Fernando Rodney to leave average Aprils behind, but there’s a nagging doubt that – Evan Longoria aside – the offence is going to let them down. Much may rest on the development of Wil Meyers, how quickly he makes it to the Major League roster and how well he performs once he gets there.

9. Baltimore Orioles (17)

Like most onlookers, I was down on the Orioles heading into this season so I’m going to reverse the trend and give them a big boost in the rankings this time around. Chris ‘Crush’ Davis has started the season in torrid style and Wei-Yin Chen has been very effective on the mound.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (2)

After making so much news with their offseason moves, it’s been a distinctly underwhelming start to the season for the Blue Jays and losing Jose Reyes for three months to an ankle injury is a big blow. Let’s see whether the pitching additions (R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle) can make some strides in May.

11. L.A. Dodgers (6)

Much like the Blue Jays, the Dodgers haven’t lived up to the hype in the first month although their dreadful luck with injuries to pitchers has been a significant factor in their faltering start. Matt Kemp is surely too talented to be mired in his slump for much longer and with Boston recruits Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez performing well, with Hanley Ramirez due back from injury early in May, the Dodgers are a good bet to bounce back strongly.

12. Boston Red Sox (15)

It has of course been a tragic month in Boston, but the city’s beloved Red Sox have been a source of comfort with a good April. If the team was going to rebound from a disappointing 2012 campaign they needed Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester to find their best form again. They’ve certainly done that so far and Boston could become a team that grabs a Wild Card and then goes on a run in the playoffs.

13. New York Yankees (13)

The injuries keep on coming (Jeter reinjuring his ankle, Ivan Nova and Francisco Cervelli both suffering injuries on Friday) and yet they’ve still started the season in good style. This isn’t a classic Yankees team, but do not count them out from making the playoffs.

14. Oakland A’s (11)

After a thrilling nine-game winning streak earlier in the month, the A’s had gone 4-10 prior to Sunday’s game to bring the team back down to earth. Jarrod Parker, Brett Anderson and Josh Reddick have had a tough opening month and Oakland need them to return to form to push forward, knowing from 2012 that anything can happen over a long season.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks (16)

Arguably they deserve to be a little higher in the rankings than this. Patrick Corbin looks to be the next brilliant D-Backs starter off the production line, whilst Paul Goldschmidt and Gerardo Parra have started the season well at the plate. However, there’s a part of me that suspects baseball karma will take hold and their decision to trade away Justin Upton will come back to haunt them.

16. L.A. Angels of Anaheim (8)

Although the Angels got plenty of media attention for adding Josh Hamilton to their already talented batting lineup, their pitching staff didn’t look especially strong and losing ace Jered Weaver to a fractured elbow has put even more focus on their lack of depth in the rotation. With Hamilton starting slowly and Albert Pujols battling through a painful foot injury, there’s enough reason so far to doubt that the Angels will live up to the potential of the star talent on the team.

17. Milwaukee Brewers (14)

It’s largely been as expected for the Brewers so far. Ryan Braun has been terrific and Kyle Lohse (recent injury aside) has started his time in Milwaukee well, yet Rickie Weeks has struggled and John Axford’s 2012 demons have resurfaced. Returns from injuries by Aramis Ramirez (expected to be very soon) and Corey Hart (probably the end of May) means that quality reinforcements are on the way, but will they be enough?

18. Kansas City Royals (21)

I’m cautious about buying into the Royals’ good April too much as most years there is an unfancied team that starts off well but then fades away (Cleveland went 11-9 in April last year, for example). The positive signs are that offseason recruits James Shields and Ervin Santana have started very well and they are getting good contributions from a range of position players, even though Mike Moustakas has yet to put a disappointing 2012 behind him.

19. Philadelphia Phillies (19)

The Phillies’ first month hasn’t done much to change the sense that despite having a number of talented veteran players, the sum total of the roster’s efforts leaves them as a middle of the pack team. Roy Halladay has shown some encouraging signs in his last three starts, which will be a big relief to the Phillies, although prior to Sunday night Cole Hamels had got off to a shaky start to the season.

20. Pittsburgh Pirates (23)

The Buccos have started brightly and the fact that they’ve done so without Andrew McCutchen really hitting his stride has got to bode well. Starling Marte has had an excellent April and new recruit Russell Martin has really picked up over the past 10 days or so. The pitching has been decent overall and maybe this will finally be the year that they get above .500. As I stated last time, I still want to see them do it before I’ll believe in them.

21. Chicago White Sox (18)

A team of two parts so far. The pitching has been effective with Jake Peavy, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Dylan Axelrod doing well in the rotation and Addison Reed and Jesse Crain dominating out of the bullpen. The offence – Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez aside – has simply not been there. Adam Dunn has been woeful apart from a few longball swings, Jeff Keppinger isn’t hitting at all and even Paul Konerko has started off slowly.

22. Cleveland Indians (20)

Offseason recruits Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn (before his finger injury) have boosted the offence as hoped and Justin Masterson has led the pitching staff outstandingly well, showing the good form that destered him last season. However, they need more hurlers to step up and both Brett Myers (now out injured) and Ubaldo Jimenez have done the exact opposite.

23. New York Mets (25)

The Mets haven’t had a lot to cheer about over the past few seasons and it was sadly fitting that the one man who temporarily lifted the gloom with a no-hitter last year, Johan Santana, was the source of more dejection heading into this season suffering another serious shoulder injury that could end his career.

In that context, Matt Harvey has been a dazzling bright spot. There’s little better for fans than seeing a young starting pitcher dominating teams and he provides an enormous amount of encouragement, both in enjoying his performances this season and what he could be a part of in years to come.

24. Seattle Mariners (22)

There are no surprises here; Felix Hernandez has been excellent and yet the M’s offence is holding the team back (the efforts of Aaron Harang and Joe Saunders on the mound haven’t helped much either). Mike Morse hit six homers in his first nine games but hasn’t hit one since, Raul Ibanez hasn’t offered much at the plate and hopes that Justin Smoak might finally turn things around haven’t been realised, so far at least.

25. Colorado Rockies (28)

Based on their win-loss record they should be much higher up the rankings and they’ve received some wonderful contributions in April from the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario and Jhoulys Chacin. Still, rankings should take into account a projection of how the team will develop over the course of the season and you cannot overlook that their impressive early showing includes a 9-0 record against the Padres and Mets. The Rockies’ next four series are against the Dodgers, Rays, Yankees and Cardinals so let’s see where they are after those games.

26. Minnesota Twins (27)

The Twins are where you would expect them to be right now. Joe Mauer’s hitting like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham’s knocking some balls over the fence and that’s about where the positivity ends, perhaps adding in Kevin Correia’s good first four outings.

27. Chicago Cubs (26)

The Cubs’ Carlos Villanueva has been one of the more surprisingly impressive starting pitchers in April and with Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood both doing a decent job on the mound too, that’s something to be positive about. Still, the main news in Chicago has been in the off-the-field developments that will see the renovation of Wrigley Field and hopes for an increased payroll down the line.

28. San Diego Padres (24)

Hopefully the recent return of Chase Headley from a DL stint will provide a boost for the Padres. There hasn’t been much else to cheer so far, including pitching prospect Casey Kelly injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

29. Houston Astros (30)

There’s little to choose between the Astros and Marlins at the bottom of the rankings. The Astros had struck out 244 in their first 24 games prior to Sunday – Chris Carter leading the way with a record-breaking 43 in April with 3 days still to go – and their four-game series against the Tigers this week (Thursday to Sunday) is extremely likely to start May off on the same footing. Jose Altuve has been the lone positive on the current Major League roster so far.

30. Miami Marlins (29)

Everyone knew that the Marlins were going to be a mess in 2013, but it was thought that Giancarlo Stanton would provide one reason to come to the ballpark. However, Stanton had just one home run heading into Sunday and was batting .209/.329/.299 and you have to wonder whether the broken promises and dramatic trading away of most of last year’s team has affected his play.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Segura the scourge of scorers

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If you’ve ever kept score of a baseball game in Britain, you’ll probably consider scoring an MLB game as being a relatively easy task.

The professionals understandably have a greater grasp of the fundamentals of the game and plays generally unfold in a straightforward way, unlike on the fields of the U.K. where the ball can fly around a bit more at times.

Even when you do get a complex scoring play in MLB, anything you’re not quite sure of can be reassessed via numerous TV replays and, if all else fails, you can simply wait for clarification from the official scorer before updating your own scorecard.

It will all make complete sense to somebody and you can then take your lead from there.

However, the Milwaukee Brewers’ Jean Segura conspired to confound all observers last Friday with some bizarre base-running against the Chicago Cubs.

Segura was on second base, with Ryan Braun on first, when he tried to advance too quickly and got caught in a rundown between third and second. Braun got himself to second base while Segura was between bases – as all good baserunners should do – but then found himself sharing the bag with his teammate. Somehow it ended with Braun sitting back in the dugout having been called out and Segura standing on first base despite having stolen second base earlier in the inning. Segura brought the madness to a conclusion by attempting to steal second (again) on the very next pitch and being thrown out.

If it sounds confusing, that’s because it was. Take a look at the video.

Such a bizarre turn of events is perfect fodder for ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, the master of writing about baseball oddities, and his article on the matter is essential reading. As a keen scorekeeper, my favourite part is when Stark gets the views of “longtime official scorer and SABR historian David Vincent” on how the computer-based scoring systems reacted to Segura ending up back on first base.

“”All the computer software — none of it will handle that,” Vincent said. “You don’t run the bases [from] second to first. Any software that processes play-by-play won’t accept that.”

So because it’s theoretically impossible, the official box score of this game listed Segura as having been thrown out stealing third — even though he slid into second. Huh?

“That’s because the play-by-play listed him as staying at second base [because it couldn’t compute that he was actually on first],” Vincent said. “So then he had to be caught stealing third. But that never happened. So that has to get changed.”

Right. But that’s not all. The official box score and play-by-play also said that Braun got caught stealing second.

“That’s not right either,” Vincent said. “He was just out trying to advance to second base on a play being made on somebody else. So I’m pretty sure that has to get changed too.”

Amazing the havoc one madcap baserunner can wreak on this sport, isn’t it? But that is why we love it”.

It certainly is, Jayson, it certainly is.

More scorekeeping

I consider myself fortunate that I wasn’t trying to keep score of that Cubs-Brewers game. I like to keep a neat scorecard and reducing an inning to one big smudge on the page would have been demoralizing.

I did keep score of a Cubs game one week earlier though. There were no difficult plays to note down, but it was a fun game to score.

[ilink url=”https://baseballgb.co.uk/wp-content/2013-04-12SfgChc.pdf” style=”download”]Completed scorecard of Giants v Cubs, 12 April 2013[/ilink]

 

The Cubs’ starter Carlos Villanueva pitched extremely well against the San Francisco Giants and, with the help of James Russell inducing a double-play groundball to end the eighth inning, allowed his team to take a 2-0 lead into the top of the ninth inning.

It was at this point that the game took off. The Cubs had demoted Carlos Marmol from the closer role a couple of days earlier and turned the job over to Kyuji Fujikawa. The Japanese pitcher came into the game against the Giants and promptly gave up three runs, much to the frustration of the Wrigley Field faithful (in fairness to Fujikawa, he didn’t look at all comfortable on the mound and was subsequently put on the Disabled List with a strained right forearm).

Seeing a 2-0 lead turn into a 3-2 deficit is the stuff of nightmares for fans, but from a neutral’s perspective it turned an otherwise straightforward victory into a dramatic conclusion.

Pinch-hitter Dioner Navarro tied the game with one swing of the bat to lead off the bottom of the ninth and Starlin Castro completed the comeback with a walk-off double that brought David DeJesus around to score the winning run. The crowd sang ‘Go Cubs Go’ as they filed out of the ballpark, which was quite a different sentiment to that being expressed about their team a few minutes earlier.

And then it comes to the stats

The two above mentioned games provide a useful reminder that the basic stats doesn’t always tell the whole story.

The fact that Ryan Braun was ‘credited’ with being caught stealing second base was unfair on the outfielder – who did everything right – but was explainable from a scoring perspective due to the uniqueness of the play in question.

However, when you see the pitching ‘W’ against Fujikawa’s name, it’s worth remembering just how useless that distinction came be at times.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Shouldering responsibility

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The list of baseball incidents likely to catch the attention of the British press is a short one, topped by steroid scandals that over the past decade have sadly ‘won’ the sport a fair few column inches across the pond.

A 50-man plus, bench-clearing brawl is on that little list – who doesn’t enjoy seeing a good old dust-up? – and if you add in an injury to an expensively-acquired player an extra paragraph or two will be tacked on to the story.

As Carlos Quentin charged into Zack Greinke recently and everyone else began the familiar shoving match, the thought that came to mind was that it’s a wonder so few brawls (if we can really call them that) end up with an injury being suffered. In Greinke’s situation, you would not expect the player to come out from underneath the heap unscathed.

Against the odds, often a few bumps and bruises are the sum total of the damage done, but it wasn’t long after the bitter Dodgers-Padres clash ended that we found out Greinke had not been so lucky. Initial estimates propose that he will be out of action for at least eight weeks after undergoing surgery on his broken left collarbone.

Manager Don Mattingly’s emotional post-game opinion that Quentin should be banned for as long as the time Greinke has to miss was understandable, if never the least bit likely. When you invest $147m in a top-line pitcher, you’re going to be upset to see him injured in such a bizarre way.

Plenty of debate has been had about any intent on Greinke’s part with the high-and-inside pitch and Quentin’s decision to charge the mound, but in hindsight you would also have to question Greinke’s decision to meet Quentin by putting his shoulder into the well-built outfielder. It has shades of the macho stance that still leads some catchers to block the plate as a baserunner comes barrelling down the third-base line trying to smash him into next week.

That approach may please the masochists, but it isn’t clever to put yourself at such an extreme risk of injury that could cost your team dear. The smart catcher can skilfully tag the runner without putting himself in harm’s way. Greinke would have been wise – rather than a wimp – to have displayed a quick bit of footwork to sell Quentin the dummy before the cavalry came to smother out the danger.

Some may see it as a kill-joy, health-and-safety-gone-mad stance, but this isn’t rounding the edges off those dangerous pointy flapjacks. The Dodgers aren’t paying Greinke $147m to be a nightclub bouncer, they are paying him to pitch and he won’t be doing that for the next couple of months.

Replay the instant replay debate

The Premier League announced last week that they will be implementing HawkEye technology for goal line decisions from next season. MLB has apparently ruled out the use of such technology for fair/foul line calls, but it is expected that an increased use of instant replay will be adopted for the 2014 season.

The game-ending call between the Rays and Rangers last Monday raises an interesting question as to how that should be implemented.

At first glance, umpire Marty Foster’s decision to call the Rays’ Ben Zobrist out on strikes is exactly the sort of play that instant replay should be there for. It came at an important time (the final out of the game with the Rays trailing 4-3 with a runner on first) and was a clearly incorrect call. Nobody wants to see a blatant mistake by an umpire play a crucial part in the outcome of a game, especially the umpire that has to live with the mistake.

However, we don’t yet know whether an expanded instant replay referral system would include balls and strikes calls. My guess would be that the Umpires’ Union, and quite probably the MLB Commissioner’s Office too, would be dead-set against it.

The incorrect strike call on Zobrist was a freak event; most disputed calls on balls and strikes are more marginal. Most, if not probably all, cameras looking towards home plate do so at an angle that distorts the perception of the path of the pitch, so you couldn’t use the standard camera angles. That brings in the prospect of a PITCHf/x type tracking system being used and whilst some fans would be happy for computers to call all pitches, it’s safe to say the umpires would not agree.

As things currently stand, any new referral system would need to be introduced with the approval of the Umpires’ Union and opening the door to the use of a pitch-tracking system is likely to be refused.

It’s possible that the new system would give the umpires ultimate discretion to check any call and therefore a completely baffling error such as the one Foster made could be rechecked (i.e. with the umpire knowing that they had blown it and so referring it themselves), but don’t be surprised if the new system still results in such a call being met only with the consolation of an apology from the umpire.

Which for the team in question is no consolation at all.

Replay on Rajai

Another potential replay scenario cropped up during last week’s series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers.

The Blue Jays’ speedster Rajai Davis attempted to steal second base and was called safe. On first viewing I thought the umpire had got the close call exactly right and I maintained that view having watched a replay. However, a second angle revealed that after narrowly beating the throw, Davis actually came off the bag briefly whilst Omar Infante kept the tag applied.

Infante didn’t make a big deal of it, but maybe he would have done had there been an option to refer the decision to a replay process.

Rule changes typically lead to changes in the way a game is played and the expanded use of instant replay will be no different. Every baserunner tries to stay on the bag when sliding in, just as every infielder knows they should keep the tag applied, but once instant replay comes into effect you should see players refining their technique.

The demand for additional replay has grown deafening as technological developments in TV coverage have hugely magnified the slightest error by an umpire. What shouldn’t be overlooked is that expanded replay will cast the same level of inspection on the players and slight mistakes that they presently get away with may come back to haunt them.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Bonus breakfast baseball

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Several times over the course of a season, a game will go deep into extra innings and turn into a battle of the last man standing.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals produced such a marathon match on Wednesday night in only their third game of year.

If the contest is played in the evening Stateside, you’ll often find that the crowds thin out as the game heads beyond the tenth inning and the fans reluctantly decide that they have to head to bed to get up early the next morning.

Here in Britain, the morning has already arrived. Although the crowds in the ballpark diminish, fans in other parts of the world start to arrive virtually over the Internet. Little starts a week-day morning better than settling down with your cereal and cup of tea, logging on to MLB.com and finding out that there’s some live bonus breakfast baseball waiting to be watched.

It was Thursday morning for us in the U.K. as the D-Backs and Cards battled their way beyond the regulation nine innings. The Cardinals took a 9-8 lead in the top of the twelfth inning only for a sacrifice fly by Martin Prado to level the game once again in the bottom of the frame and move us on to the thirteenth.

In these situations, there’s always a sense that something is quickly running out. For the teams, it’s their pitching staffs that are being whittled down as the innings pile up and every available arm gets called into action. For fans in the U.K., it’s the relentless ticking of the clock on the wall and the hope that a dramatic end to the game will arrive before you have to head off to work.

On Thursday morning the climax came at approximately 8.15 a.m. when Cliff Pennington’s single into right-centre field brought home Jason Kubel for a hard-earned 10-9 walk-off win in sixteen innings.

It’s always tough to lose a game when you’ve put so much effort into it, but the Cardinals were down to their final available pitcher, Fernando Salas, and had it gone much further they would have needed to turn the ball over to a position player. That’s always fun for us fans, but not so much for the manager having to watch it from the dugout.

As it was, the game was brought to an end before a position player had to take to the mound and both managers headed to the clubhouse glad that their teams had an off-day on Thursday.

A fantasy failure

One of the benefits of fantasy baseball is that it gives you an emotional attachment to games played by teams other than those involving your chosen club. Even if it’s an early season game with little riding on it in the general scheme of things, the performances of player or two involved can grab your attention and give you a reason to watch intently.

The Tampa Bay Rays’ home-opener against the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday was one such game for me. David Price was my third round selection in this year’s BaseballGB Fantasy League draft and he was on the mound for the Rays.

After giving up a two-run homer to Matt Wieters in the first inning, Price settled in nicely and pitched a solid if unspectacular six innings. It looked like I was in line for a bonus ‘Win’ as two Rays runs in the bottom of the sixth inning turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead and put Price in line to be the winning pitcher.

But then manager Joe Maddon relieved Price and brought in Jake McGee for the seventh inning. McGee is also on my fantasy team and that just seemed like it was tempting fate. Sure enough, despite throwing a fastball in the upper nineties, McGee was jumped on by the Orioles and gave up five runs, three coming on a home run by Chris Davis.

As I watched my fantasy team’s ERA balloon whilst Price’s pitching ‘W’ vanished into thin air, I suddenly remembered that the benefit of fantasy baseball making other games seem important can also be a curse.

And I cursed quite a lot when Davis was circling the bases.

Incurring injuries

One week into the season and some players are already heading onto the Disabled List.

The Reds’ Ryan Ludwick lasted less than three full innings on Opening Day. He made a head-first slide into third base in Cincinnati’s game against the LA Angels and separated his right shoulder, putting him out of action for a good proportion of the rest of the season.

Jake McGee’s meltdown in the aforementioned Orioles-Rays game was a shock I didn’t need, but the game produced a welcome surprise of sorts in the sight of the O’s Brian Roberts taking the field and going 2-for-4. The second baseman has endured a miserable run of injuries over the last three years with a catalogue of ailments restricting him to just 115 appearances over that period. His Opening Day start gave rise to hopes that he might have put the bad luck behind him, yet sadly those hopes were dashed a couple of days later. Roberts suffered a ruptured tendon in his right knee and will miss the next three to four weeks.

It looks like Roberts should be fine to come back healthy after that rest period and hopefully the same can be said for the Red Sox’s pitcher John Lackey. After missing all of the 2012 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lackey was doing a decent job against the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday in his first game back when all of a sudden he grabbed hold of his right arm after letting go of a pitch in the fifth inning. It looked awful and everyone, Lackey included, probably thought the worst as soon as it happened. The initial diagnosis is that it’s a right biceps strain and not something structurally wrong with his repaired elbow, so it’s a case of crossing fingers that Lackey won’t have a long rehabilitation assignment to work through so soon after his last one.