Monthly Archives: May 2008

The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom M Tango, Mitchel G Lichtman, and Andrew E Dolphin

(Potomac Books, 2007) 384 pages.

Up until this publication, any mention of “the book” in a conversation about baseball was a reference not to a written piece of work, but rather to a body of tactical advice passed down from one generation of managers to the next. Seemingly, all a tactical ploy needed for inclusion in “the book” was to be successful at least once, on some field, somewhere in America. It was, in essence, baseball folklore. But, as it states in the preface to this publication, “The unwritten book is about to be written.” And it is written by using numerical techniques to analyse baseball strategy. Tom Tango is the best-known of the authors (through his internet presence as TangoTiger), but all three have worked with Major League teams.

While some of the ideas presented are groundbreaking, this is not a revolutionary publication: the idea of using maths to determine the optimal tactical decisions in baseball goes back many decades (George Lindsey was working on it back in the 1950s). But the writers are not claiming that. They are careful to point out which of their findings are new, which support existing ideas, and which question current knowledge (or “convetional sabermetric wisdom”, as they call it at one point, putting together three words that might never have appeared so close to each other before). Continue reading

Foam bats and Kool-Aid, Bands, Balco and Bonds

Written by Steve Bartley

Before he was sent down the headline that made me reach for my foam baseball bat the quickest was that the gaunt and wobbly looking Pete Doherty, ‘front man’ to some band he formed after being expelled from his last, had been arrested on drug charges.

After what must have been a weekly pardon by a magistrate Doherty would stumble out into daylight for the music press to touch the hem of his garment, leaving people like me wondering what it took to put someone famous behind bars – or into rehab, depending on your level of patience and/or compassion. He was a great talent, people said, and that he just needed to sort himself out. Thwack-thwack went the bat against the wall.

In between my last post and this, baseball’s own Doherty has popped up like a batting practice fly. It’s not the alleged extent to which Barry Bonds ‘roided-up’ before trudging to the plate well past his career’s cocktail hour, it was the endless flow of news about him that knocked my standards off kilter, causing me to yell more than I should at the TV or sports section.

Allegation follows allegation, all pointing towards the same thing. But as was written in the Guardian a few weeks ago, Bonds hasn’t actually been charged. What I say is let’s sort this out sooner rather than later. I’m getting bored and more importantly the longer it goes on the more I assume the man is guilty. I’m ready to rub his numbers from the books right now, and this can’t be good. I’m not alone.

Meanwhile Bonds is apparently unsure as to why he’s not getting offered work in baseball, which is like Richard Nixon asking why he couldn’t get a political gig in the late seventies. To go near Bonds now is to put yourself in his camp, a camp which has a rusty gate held up by whitewash.

So Bonds is in limbo, also known as perjury, with the highest participation sport in the US now his bashing. No charges for drug use, just perjury for lying that he had never knowingly taken them, something that will hardly be easy to prove. Congress may be homing in on it but Baseball still carries on as if the smoke emanating from Bonds is not fire, just the raw stench of summer.

I once wrote to Bed Selig about this, telling him to come down on any player caught doping with the power of hell’s own fury (my emphasis). He wrote back on very nice paper saying he agreed, but that sadly hell’s fury was not empowered to his office.

That was four years ago now and can we really say there is no suspicion in the game? It’s worse. It’s taken MLB years to do with drugs what The Libertines did in months with Doherty – show a zero tolerance policy towards drugs.

They probably didn’t have proof their front man was screwing himself over in his free time and we don’t know if Bonds did or didn’t do anything we prude’s frown upon. But even Barry must notice the list of athletes connected with Balco now charged or in prison.

It’s time to either put Bonds on trial or let him go. Speed up the indictments, fast track the process – for the sake of baseball. If he’s innocent – terrific; they will name stadiums after him. If not then pass me the Kool-Aid and my foam bat. Take the kids into the other room. Dad has some yelling to do.

Hitting streaks in 7-inning and 9-inning baseball

Matt’s latest book review got me thinking about hitting streaks, and - being a fan of the sport in Britain – my thoughts naturally turned to the subject of our domestic game.

The National League South schedule consists purely of 7-inning double-headers, and it seems fair enough to state that maintaining a hitting streak across such games would be harder than doing so with the full-length variety. (As a counterpoint, innings do tend to be a little longer in the British game, but this is probably more than cancelled out by the existence of the slaughter rule, which can see games terminated after as few as 4-and-a-half frames.)

As a way of addressing the question of how much harder it might be, I will firstly put together a very crude simulation of Joe DiMaggio’s career. Over 1736 games he amassed 2214 hits in 6821 at-bats. That’s a career batting average of .325, with 3.93 at-bats per game (we’ll call it 4 to keep things simple). Assuming that every game that DiMaggio plays in a fictitious 1736-game career he has 4 at-bats and a 32.5% chance of getting a hit each time (this is what I mean by crude), then the probability of him getting at least one hit in a game is a fraction under 80%. Using this, and with a bit of code in Excel, I can simulate his career as many times as I want. Even if this doesn’t sound like fun, you might still be interested in the results. Continue reading

Joe DiMaggio: The Hero’s Life by Richard Ben Cramer

(Touchstone, 2001), 546 pages.

Heralded for many years as ‘baseball’s greatest living player’, Joe DiMaggio was, and due to his enduring legend still is, one of the true giants of the sport. While his life has been the inspiration for countless books, Richard Ben Cramer’s biography is generally considered the definitive account. 

DiMaggio has the dubious honour of being one of the very few ballplayers who even Brits of a certain generation will have heard of. He might be known as “that bloke in the Simon and Garfunkel song”, or more probably “that bloke who married Marilyn Monroe”, but he will be known in any case, which over here is a rare feat for a baseball star. His relationship with the Hollywood icon is covered in great depth here, which is understandable considering this is a book on DiMaggio’s life rather than his baseball career alone. It might not be of great interest to all baseball fans, but it’s undoubtedly an important part of the DiMaggio legend and deserves its prominent billing.

The large section on his relationship with Monroe is all the more bearable because it is preceded by three hundred odd pages on his upbringing, his time in the Coast League and primarily his thirteen seasons with the New York Yankees. Reported in exceptional detail, DiMaggio’s career is recalled year by year and leaves the reader in no doubt as to why he assumed such legendary status. It wasn’t just that he won three MVP awards, or that he played with such brilliance and grace. What really made DiMaggio stand out was that his personal performances were the catalyst for a Yankee dynasty that resulted in Joltin’ Joe and his team mates winning nine World Series rings.

Continue reading

Billy Beane interview

The A’s fansite, Athletics Nation, is in the enviable position of having a good relationship with GM Billy Beane.  Every now and then, Beane gives up a bit of his spare time to answer questions from the site’s main contributor, Blez.  Naturally, these interviews will be of most interest to A’s fans, but they afford all baseball fans the opportunity to learn a little bit more about the way MLB organizations are run. 

Blez’s latest interview took place a week ago and is being published in three parts.  Part one looks at the process of ‘rebuilding’, the reasons why Beane decided to go down this route over the off-season and how he went about it.  It also reveals the pressures that a small-market team is under and how they need to adjust their strategies in order to survive.  What really hits home to me is the importance Beane places on pitching.  We all know how high the free agent market has risen for starting pitching over the last two years, so finding ways to accumulate good pitching is now more difficult than ever.  Re-stocking your farm system with good arms by trading some of your best players (Haren and Swisher in this case) can bring short-term pain for the team and its fans, but it’s an essential course of action if you want to compete for pennants and World Series rings and don’t have oodles of cash to bankroll your efforts.

The second part contains an interesting comment by Beane about  the process of drafting players (apt for the time of year) and the so-called Moneyball philosophy:

“When was Moneyball published?  What 2002, so that’s six years ago now and we’re still talking about it?  I usually let Michael and others define what they thought what [sic] the book was about.  The bottom line is that I don’t [think] there was anywhere in the book where we sat down and gave a manifesto on how to do things so I think that’s the most misinterpreted thing.  But as far as how we do business in the draft, the more you do this job, and this can apply to almost any business job, the more you realize you don’t know.  The idea that you are going to create a template that is going to work forever in a very competitive business just doesn’t happen.  Are there some things we still believe in?  Absolutely.  There are also some things where we say, “Maybe we need to take a look at this.”  But that’s the evolution of any business if you’re going to stay on top and try and be successful.  I’m glad we’re like that.  Maybe seven, eight, nine years ago I wouldn’t have been so much like that.  Successes and failures are things you can learn from.  For us, we’re constantly trying to evolve.  Just because we do something different that we didn’t necessarily do a previous year doesn’t mean it’s something we don’t believe in.  Someone will inevitably say that’s blasphemy compared to how we used to do business.  We’re constantly checking ourselves.  And the business is changing.  The people running teams now, in my opinion, are as good as they ever have been.  There are some really smart guys running businesses.  It’s incredibly competitive and the idea that you’re going to have an “intellectual edge” anymore is, and I not sure that there ever was, but I’m not sure it exists any more.  I can tell you the guys running teams now have some really, really smart guys working for them.  You’re not going to outsmart too many people.  We all have the same information available to us”.

Beane also discusses the A’s approach to the international player market and states that the A’s “just missed on signing a great kid out of Australia”.  If any Aussies out there know who he is talking about, I’d be interested to learn more about him.  Sounds like one less guy to torment the English cricket team, so that’s got to be a good thing.

The third and final part of the interview will be published tomorrow. 

National League: brief update from Bank Holiday weekend

The National League North standings are beginning to take shape, with four games being played last Sunday and the results of several games from previous weeks having also been submitted. The most recent set of games saw the Menwith Hill Patriots sweep the previously unbeaten Trojans (by scores of 7-4 and 19-5) to draw within half a game of the second-placed Liverpool team. The Manchester Eagles sit at the top of the table, a game ahead of Liverpool, thanks to two victories over the Halton Jaguars (10-0 and 14-13).

This Sunday, the Trojans travel to Manchester for a double-header against the Eagles, while the Patriots host the Sheffield Bladerunners in a single game.

There were no games scheduled for the National League South, but competition resumes this Sunday with the Croydon Pirates hosting the Richmond Flames at Roundshaw and the Bracknell Blazers travelling to Finsbury Park to take on the league-leading London Mets.

Avoiding England friendlies – Live early games this week

There are eleven early games this week, with British fans only drawing a blank on Tuesday.  All times are listed in BST.

Monday 26 – It’s Memorial Day in the States, so there are more early games than normal for a Monday.  The first of five early games starts at 17.37 in Toronto as the Blue Jays face the Royals.  There’s a great pitching match-up in prospect from 18.00 as Brandon Web and Jair Jurrjens take the mound for the D-Backs and the Braves respectively.  Thirty-five minutes later, Ben Sheets and the Brewers start their game against the Nationals, while Darrell Rasner looks to continue his excellent rookie season with the Yankees as they take on the Orioles.  Finally, Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers start their game against the Cubs at 19.20, with Ryan Dempster being the scheduled starter for the home team.

Tuesday 27 – No early games today, but plenty of exciting pitchers are in action later on, not least at Chase Field where Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren lock horns from 02.40.  Elsewhere, Andrew Miller looks to build on his outstanding start last time out against the D-Backs as the Marlins face the Mets from 00.10, Johnny Cueto takes the mound against the Pirates (also 00.10) and Daisuke Matsuzaka aims to improve his record to 9-0 in Boston’s game against the struggling Mariners (03.10).

Wednesday 28 – Many sports fans in England will be watching a game being played in America today.  Unfortunately for them, most will be enjoying (or should that be enduring) an England football friendly against the U.S. national team.  I’m sure it will be a thriller [EDIT: Yes, it shows how much attention I’m paying that I didn’t know the game is actually being played at Wembley!  I’ll stand by my comment about it being a snorefest though].  Those of you not interested in being bored to death can watch a couple of ballgames earlier on in the evening.  The White Sox face the Indians at Jacobs Progressive Field from 17.05 with Jake Westbrook currently scheduled to make his return from the DL against Gavin Floyd.  At 17.40, the Rangers take on the Rays at Tropicana Field.  Kason Gabbard and Matt Garza are set to start.

Thursday 29 – Three early games today.  The Braves and the Brewers kick things off with their game starting at 18.05.  A few hours later (20.35) it’s the Nationals versus the Padres and the Blue Jays against the A’s.  The latter should be a good pitching duel between Jesse Litsch and Dana Eveland.

Friday 30 – A day game from Wrigley Field to end the working week/start the weekend on a positive note.  The Cubs face the Rockies with first pitch set for 19.20.  Aaron Cook and Ted Lilly are the scheduled starters.

Five will be broadcasting game three of the Stanley Cup on Wednesday night instead of the normal mid-week MLB game.  NASN’s MLB schedule for the week can be found here.

‘Weekly’ Hit Ground Ball 2008 – Week Eight

Tick, Tock.  Tick, Tock …

Like the White Rabbit in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig is frantically rushing around, looking at his watch and muttering “Oh dear! Oh dear! The games are running too late”.

All thirty MLB teams were informed this week of plans to crack down on the many little factors that can slow the pace of a game. Batters won’t be able to amble to home plate when it’s their turn to stand in the batter’s box, pitchers will have to deliver their pitches more promptly, batters won’t be granted time once the pitcher has started his delivery, and the home plate umpire will be breaking up those all-too frequent powwows on the pitching mound. Continue reading

Daily Rewind Review

MLB.com introduced a whole range of changes to its multimedia content for the 2008 season.  Some have been popular, some less so.

One of the main sources of discontent among seasoned MLB.tv subscribers has been the loss of the Condensed Games feature.  This allowed subscribers to watch nine to ten minutes of highlights from each game.  Its appeal was obvious: overseas fans of a specific team could watch a decent amount of action from every one of their team’s games despite not having the time to watch the full contest (which is often impractical).  If memory serves me correctly, ‘Condensed Games’ was one of the stated features that would come with the 2008 subscription when details were first announced, but it mysteriously vanished prior to the season starting (and after those who renewed early had already parted with their cash).

Continue reading

Right on the nose

Getting hit in the face by an Albert Pujols line drive doesn’t sound like much fun.  It certainly didn’t look like much fun last night, so I’ll resist the temptation to link to any photos of the Padres’ Chris Young.

Thankfully, it is being reported that Young has only suffered a “nasal fracture and a lacerated nose”.  It’s not being overly dramatic to say that he could have been killed.  Only last July, the baseball family had to come to terms with the death of Rockies minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh, who was struck by a line drive while standing in the first base coach’s box.  Coolbaugh would have been further away from the batter than Young was, but tragically he was hit on the neck and the blow proved to be fatal.

Young probably doesn’t feel very lucky right now, but he was.

Coolbaugh’s death prompted MLB to introduce a new rule for the 2008 season that compels coaches to wear protective helmets when they are on the field.  This hasn’t gone down well with some, not least the Dodgers’ third base coach Larry Bowa, and there is an argument that a helmet wouldn’t have saved Coolbaugh.  That’s not really the point though.  His death highlighted just how vulnerable coaches are and added protection, so long as it doesn’t impede the coach from doing his job as normal, has got to be a good thing.

But what about pitchers?  They are even more vulnerable than the coaches because they are so close to the batter at the end of their delivery (approximately 55 feet).  Frankly, it is something of a miracle that pitchers don’t get injured more often due to a come-backer.  Just last Sunday, I was watching Johan Santana facing the Yankees on MLB.tv. In the bottom of the fourth inning, Jason Giambi smashed a line drive straight at Santana that, in the words of announcer Michael Kay, “almost took his head off”.  The Mets’ ace is known for his athleticism and he showed stunning reflexes to duck down and snare the shot right in his glove.  Former pitchers Al Leiter and David Cone were also in the commentary booth and they both used the word “scary” to describe what they saw.  It went down in the playbook as a simple out, but it was only through some skill and a large helping of luck that it wasn’t far more serious.

The problem with providing pitchers with extra protection is that you would need to  devise ways you could do so without inhibiting their pitching deliveries.   That seems very unlikely.    Pitchers wearing the tools of ignorance is not a look that is going to catch on, that’s for sure.  We just have to be thankful that incidents like we saw last night in San Diego are rare.  And that Young took it right on the hooter rather than a more potentially life-threatening spot.