Monthly Archives: December 2012

MLB contenders or pretenders

Writing up a summary of the key roster changes that have taken place recently led me scurrying to the essential MLBDepthCharts website to take stock of every team’s roster.

There is plenty of off-season remaining for teams to add new players, and potentially for teams to lose key players too (as the Tigers did with Victor Martinez last year). The 2012 season also taught us yet again that when we ‘predict’ we are really taking an educated guess and that there can always be a Baltimore or Oakland team that takes us all by surprise.

All of which is a long way of saying that we don’t have a definitive picture of who will be the main playoff contenders, but it’s still fun to take a guess during the lazy Christmas break.

There are now 15 teams in each league following the Houston Astros’ move to the American League and by my reckoning there are 8 teams in each (possibly 9) that have the potential to be genuine playoff contenders.

American League (ordered by division)

Boston, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto, Detroit, LA Angels, Oakland and Texas (with the Chicago White Sox as a questionable ninth team).

The Red Sox probably have another move or two in them and I also think their poor 2012 performance was a combination of lots of different factors (Bobby Valentine being the main one) that will be improved in part due to a clean slate for 2013. The loss of James Shields from the Rays’ rotation shouldn’t be underestimated and their offence needs help, but they’ve got enough to keep them in the running at least. The White Sox could be on the edge of competing if things go their way and they add a couple of players, although the strength of the Tigers’ roster makes their task difficult.

The strength of the East and West probably will mean we get one Wild Card from each. If Seattle struggle then it’s even possible they and the Astros could ‘help’ the West produce three playoff teams.

National League

Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington, Cincinnati, St Louis, Arizona, LA Dodgers, San Francisco (with Milwaukee as a questionable ninth team).

Atlanta and Washington should be set for a fantastic battle in the East, although I suspect the Phillies will pull themselves back up into the Wild Card running despite an infield defence that could make any groundball an adventure. I noted the other day that I like Arizona as a sleeper pick and the underdog role should suit them. Milwaukee are my ninth team here and may move forward if they can add a pitcher or two.

The outsiders

The above leaves Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Minnesota and Seattle on the outside in the AL and the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Miami, NY Mets, Pittsburgh and San Diego looking to 2014 in the NL.

The Orioles have the most reason to complain after making the postseason this year. They consistently proved the doubters wrong during the 2012 and will be intent on doing so again in 2013. They haven’t yet responded to the improvements made by Boston and, in particular, Toronto, in their division so the doubt of a repeat performance seems reasonable.

There are ten playoff spots up for grabs and having 18 teams fighting for them would be a very healthy position to be in. If another great season in MLB is one of your new year wishes, you may well be in luck.

Swisher, Jackson and other player-signing action

Christmas is almost here and plenty of MLB teams have been out buying presents.

Swisher and Jackson

It was revealed on Sunday that the Cleveland Indians have signed former Yankee outfielder Nick Swisher on a four-year, $56m contract (£166k per week).

Swisher’s postseason struggles may have drawn the ire of Yankee fans, but he’s consistently been one of the more productive right-fielders in the Majors over the past few seasons and in that sense he is a notable catch for a team that hasn’t competed for the better free agents in many years.

Another apparent non-contender, the Chicago Cubs, also acquired a sought-after free agent this week by signing pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52m contract (£154k per week). The Cubs made a strong push to sign Anibal Sanchez before being pipped to his signature by the Detroit Tigers, so they were clearly keen to add some ready-now talent even though they don’t look like being a probable contender for a playoff spot in 2013.

In previous years, teams have taken an aggressive approach to rebuilding. Without the threat of relegation to force a team to field as competitive a team as possible, Front Offices slashed spending on the Major League roster and instead channelled the money into the amateur player draft and the international free agent market.

The Players’ Union were very unhappy with this situation, as they saw it as taking money away from the current Major Leaguers that were generating the income, and part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which came into effect this year, sought to limit this trend by placing strict caps on the money that could be spent on amateur and international talent.

A team like the Cubs is still raking in substantial revenue through national TV contracts, local TV contracts and gate receipts despite losing 101 games during the 2012 season. As they can no longer invest heavily in young talent, now the next best thing may be to invest in a free agent with the potential for them to be exchanged for prospects in a trade a year or two down the line.

Jackson, subject to the injury risk inherent in future projections for any pitcher, should hold his value during his contract and his signing may also lead to the Cubs trading Matt Garza this offseason, adding a few more prospects into their farm system. Swisher’s contract looks a decent deal on its own, although whether it will help to make an AL Central title a realistic target in 2014 and 2015 for Cleveland remains to be seen.

Dickey deal done

The Blue Jays completed their trade with the New York Mets to add R.A. Dickey to their revamped pitching rotation. Dickey was already under contract for 2013 at a bargain $5m and Toronto added a two-year, $25m contract extension to that, with a further $12m club option for 2016.

It must be an exciting time to be a Blue Jays fan. Their Front Office has not just made a couple of additions out of hope. They’ve weighed up their competition and judged that the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t at their peak – although make no mistake; both will field competitive teams in 2013 – before adding a host of experienced players.

Like any plan, it’s not guaranteed to succeed and they’ve traded away two highly-thought-of prospects in catcher Travis d’Arnaud and pitcher Noah Syndergaard; however this is precisely the situation where dealing such talent makes sense. They’ve got a chance to go for it, so they’re going for it now.

Former Great Britain catcher Mike Nickeas moved to Toronto as part of the trade, although the most likely scenario would be for him to start the season with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. Josh Thole is heading to the Rogers Centre as well and J.P. Arencibia is in possession of the catching position, so Nickeas would be the odd man out if the other two are healthy.

Rangers are O.K. for A.J.

The Texas Rangers finally were on the right side of some transaction news this week. They’ve agreed a one-year contract with free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski and he will share time behind the dish with Geovany Soto in an all-ex-Chicago tandem.

It’s worth noting that the man Pierzynski is replacing, Mike Napoli, still hasn’t actually completed his move to the Red Sox. Boston reportedly have concerns about one of Napoli’s hips and whilst his move to Fenway is still expected to go ahead, the contract wording is taking some time to agree.

Deals by the rest in the West

The Rangers’ main competitors in the AL West have also been busy this week.

As expected, the L.A. Angels followed up their acquisition of Josh Hamilton by trading one of their surplus batting options, Kendrys Morales, for a starting pitcher. Jason Vargas switches from a Mariners uniform to an Angels outfit, with Morales adding some much-needed punch to a Seattle offence crying out for help.  The Mariners also agreed a one-year contract with former Yankee Raul Ibanez, bringing him back to Seattle for his third separate spell with the club.

The Oakland A’s signed Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima to a two-year contract and he immediately endeared himself to A’s fans with an entertaining press conference performance. News of Nakajima’s signing came shortly after Oakland’s previous shortstop, Stephen Drew, signed a one-year contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Ross to the D-Backs

I’ve been touting the Arizona Diamondbacks as a potential sleeper pick in the National League and reportedly they agreed terms on a three-year contract with outfielder Cody Ross. It’s expected that the acquisition will be followed by General Manager Kevin Towers trading away another outfielder, Jason Kubel being the most obvious choice.

We’ll have to wait and see what the knock-on effect of the Ross signing will be before judging it, but at first glance it seems a slightly strange pick-up for Arizona. The outfield wasn’t a great area of need and Ross isn’t a particularly notable upgrade on their existing options, particularly when signing him required a three-year commitment.

Other minor moves

The Astros (Carlos Pena) and Marlins (Placido Polanco) both added a veteran player to rosters currently defined by their lack of Major League experience. Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Pirates have agreed a deal to add pitcher Francisco Liriano to their rotation.

Liriano has put up a 5.23 ERA over 60 appearances (52 starts) for the Twins and White Sox during the past two seasons and whilst he has been close to striking out a batter per inning over that span (279 K’s in 291 innings pitched), he has dished out free passes at a rate (5 per nine innings) that makes it hard to be successful.

Mired in the longest-ever sequence of consecutive losing seasons, the Pirates would have to pay top dollar to beat other teams to sign a leading free agent and they cannot afford to do so (nor even come close, one suspects). That leaves them giving money to players that might not help them all that much.  Moving to the non-DH league may be a slight positive for Liriano’s performances; however a two-year, $12.75m investment in him doesn’t seem likely to bring the Pirates a fortune-changing return.

Baseball and softball to receive £3m funding from Sport England

Sport England announced their £493m four-year investment plan on Monday and the good news is that £3m will be coming the way of baseball and softball.

The two sports received a combined £2.6m from Sport England for the 2009-2013 funding period. The great work of BaseballSoftballUK, combined with the efforts of many volunteers throughout the country, during that period has ensured that not only have we maintained that funding, but we’ve had a slight increase for 2013-17.

BSUK’s draft Whole Sport Plan 2013-17 can be found on their website and – as well as showing just how much work they put into the plan – it states that they were seeking just under £4.2m, reducing to £3.7m “without the cost of talent development, facilities and governance support”.

In light of this, Sport England’s decision to provide £3m may be a disappointment. I’m sure the BSUK will provide clarity on what the funding level will mean for their work over the next four years once they’ve had a chance to fully think through the implications.  Even if the funding isn’t quite what was hoped for, it’s still a strong endorsement of what the BSUK has achieved over the the latest four-year funding period.

Sport England’s announcement came as BSUK published their Year in Review report for 2011-12. What is particularly noticeable from the report is that the agency took the brave move to set some challenging targets for the year. They didn’t always meet them, for various reasons, but the ambition to move baseball and softball forward through greatly increasing participation is there for all to see.

Much like with Sport England, BaseballSoftballUK will have to make difficult decisions on the best way to ‘invest’ the funding for the greater good. The 2012-13 action plan put particular emphasis on developing coaching and facilities, two key areas that can provide both short and long-term benefits. The Sport England application understandably was geared towards increasing participation and adding detailed plans to developing their ‘Played in every park’ vision.

The Sport England funding is specifically focused on supporting sport at the ‘grassroots’, as opposed to the UK Sport funding announced on Tuesday which relates to summer Olympic and Paralympic sports. 2012 was a remarkable year for British sport but the golden Olympic summer did seem a little bittersweet due to baseball and softball not being a part of it.  That would have brought many benefits, although it now seems that some of the longer-term gains may not have materialised.

The legacy facilities in London we initially dreamed of probably would have been scrapped in favour of temporary venues once the budget cuts kicked in. Britain’s participation in the baseball and softball tournaments also may not have led to much in the way of post-2012 funding either.

One of the biggest headlines from the UK Sport funding announcement was that basketball, which received £8.6m in funding for London 2012, will have no UK sport funding for Rio 2016.  UK Sport are quick to stress the funding decisions were based on reaching medal targets; however it’s difficult not to be cynical.  They were happy to provide funding when the event brought NBA stars to the O2 Arena, but as soon as it left these shores they didn’t want to know.

I suspect the same would have happened to baseball and softball.  Mind you, the funding up to 2012, combined with a potential associated increase in Sport England funding, would have done wonders.

That’s in the past though and national team funding likely will be in short supply unless baseball and softball gain re-entry to the Olympics.

Not only were both sports unsuccessful in achieving this at the August 2009 International Olympic Committee Board meeting, the International Softball Federation took the decision during that process that baseball – with it’s major stars not competing in the Olympics and the well-publicised drug issues – was damaging its chances of getting re-elected and publicly distanced themselves from the sport.

Thankfully that division has now been put to one side. The International Baseball Federation and International Softball Federation confirmed this week that they have agreed to create a unified international federation called the World Baseball Softball Confederation.

Whilst there are pros and cons with separate and joint bids for Olympic reinstatement, what is not in doubt is that the two sports can be much stronger when working together, especially in countries where they are minority sports. BSUK epitomizes the way in which everyone can benefit through the sharing of resources, facilities, ideas and enthusiasm.

Hopefully the creation of the World Baseball Softball Confederation and the Sport England funding for baseball and softball will prove to be positive developments for the future growth of both sports in the U.K. over the next four years.

Pre-Christmas shopping

It’s a busy time of year with all the Christmas preparations to get on with. That may have not left much time to keep up with the MLB news this week.

If so, you’ve missed out on a lot.

Hamilton joins Halos

The biggest news of the week came out of Los Angeles and this time is wasn’t the free-spending Dodgers grabbing the headlines.

The L.A. Angels sensationally signed former Texas Ranger Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125m contract (just under £300k per week). The Halos have missed out on the postseason in each of the past three years and adding Hamilton to a lineup already including Albert Pujols and Mike Trout is a pointed warning to everyone else that the team is intent on breaking that sequence in 2013.

Owner Arte Moreno did his best at Saturday’s press conference to convince onlookers that the Hamilton signing wasn’t influenced by the Dodgers’ spending. Precisely no one believed him. Even though they play in different leagues, the Los Angeles rivalry appears to be taking on the same ‘you spend, we spend right back’ dimension that we witnessed over the past ten years between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Whilst some bookies have now installed the Angels as World Series favourites, their starting rotation could certainly be improved and it’s expected that they will try to swing a trade to add another quality arm into the mix. The Angels have been linked with the Detroit Tigers’ Rick Porcello as he may now be surplus to requirements, as we shall see.

As for the Texas Rangers, losing Hamilton to a division rival is yet another blow in what has been a very disappointing offseason for them so far. The core of a very good team is still in place and they have some exciting young players, most notably Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt, to call on; however they currently look like a team that needs a few additions to continue being a leading contender in the American League.

Rangers fans will be confident that their owners and Front Office are certain to take up the challenge being laid down to them by the Angels. Look for Texas to be active over the next few weeks.

Sanchez a returning Tiger

The Tigers may be open to trading Porcello after re-signing Anibal Sanchez to a five-year, $80m contract this week (£190k per week). Detroit acquired Sanchez in a trade with the Marlins during the 2012 season and he was particularly impressive in three post-season starts as the Tigers made it to the World Series.

The curious part of the Sanchez signing was that it appeared as though he was on his way to the Chicago Cubs before giving the Tigers a chance to better their offer. The Cubs are firmly in a rebuilding phase so it was interesting to see them going after a leading free agent. Whether Sanchez was a specific target or a sign that the Cubs are looking to speed up their return to being competitive remains to be seen.

What is very clear is that the Tigers’ front four – Verlander, Fister, Scherzer and Sanchez – looks as strong as any in the Majors and Detroit will once again be overwhelming favourites to win the AL Central in 2013.

Royal risk

That leads us on to the Kansas City Royals and their controversial decision to trade away top prospect Wil Meyers and a couple of promising young pitchers to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis from the Tampa Bay Rays.

It’s been a long time since the Royals have been relevant in the playoff stakes and few disagreed, especially their long-suffering supporters, when General Manager Dayton Moore stated this week that it was time for the team to start winning.  The trade has been questioned because, while the trade makes them better in 2013, there is doubt that it genuinely helps them to become contenders.

The second Wild Card does give more teams hope and the Royals are crossing their fingers that Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain and the rest of their youngsters all take a big step forward. If they do then it’s possible that they could follow the examples set by the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A’s as underdogs proving the experts wrong.

The problem the Royals have is that the quality of the teams in the AL East and West makes even the second Wild Card a dim prospect, leaving their hopes reliant on the Tigers drastically underperforming to make the AL Central title a realistic target.

Detroit nearly did just that in 2012 so it’s not completely of the question, but right now the Royals need one or two significant additions to really give themselves a chance and that doesn’t appear to be on the cards.

Three-team trade

The Royals weren’t the only AL Central team involved in a big trade this week. The Cleveland Indians joined with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to complete a three-team trade involving nine players. The most significant parts of the deal saw Shin-Soo Choo joining the Reds, Drew Stubbs and highly-touted pitching prospect Trevor Bauer joining the Indians and reliever Tony Sipp and shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius joining the D-Backs. Gregorius is a Netherlands international, born in the country and then being raised in Curacao, and although his bat is a work in progress, his excellent glovework at short should ensure that he’ll be another European representative in the Majors for many seasons to come.

AL East additions

It seemed unlikely when the rumours began, but now it has come to pass: Kevin Youkilis will be shaving off his facial hair and putting on pinstripes. The former Red Sox hero is crossing the rivalry and joining the New York Yankees, in part to cover for the injured Alex Rodriguez at third base. The Yankees also came to terms with Ichiro Suzuki to bring the Japanese star back to the Bronx on a two-year contract.

Meanwhile in Boston, the Red Sox acquired free agent pitchers Ryan Dempster and Koji Uehara, both of whom left the Rangers as free agents at the end of the 2012 season.

The developing news story in the East is that the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly are on the verge of completing a trade with the New York Mets to add Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey to their rotation. You have to hand it to Toronto: if they wanted to compete in the AL East in 2013 they needed to dramatically improve their pitching staff. With Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle already on board, adding Dickey would give them a new and impressive front three to their rotation and completely change the look of the staff compared to how it was at the end of the 2012 season.

Other notable deals

The Philadelphia Phillies have added two former Rangers (you’ll notice a theme is emerging here) through a trade for Michael Young and signing free agent reliever Mike Adams. They also filled their hole in centre field by completing a trade with the Minnesota Twins to acquire Ben Revere.  That takes yet another potential suitor for free agent Michael Bourn out of the mix, although anyone thinking that agent Scott Boras might be left without a team to give his client a lucrative contract should remember what happened with Prince Fielder a year ago.

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired free agent starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy on a two-year, $15m contract to add yet another former Oakland A’s player to their collection. The D-Backs also now appear to be retreating from trade talks to part ways with outfielder Justin Upton and while they don’t have the star power of the Dodgers and the Giants, General Manager Kevin Towers is building a solid roster to make Arizona a sleeper pick in the National League.

 

Dodger dollars demolishing the West

It’s not been officially confirmed just yet, but reports state that the Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed terms with free agent Zack Greinke.

It’s an agreement that always seemed too inevitable not to happen.

The Dodgers have the deepest pockets of any team this offseason and a desire to make immediate improvements to their roster. Greinke is far and away the best starting pitcher on the free agent market and was rightly seeking a substantial contract to reflect that status.

The contract reportedly will be worth $147m over six years. That amounts to a total contract value of £91.671m, or just under £294k per week.

The Dodgers’ dealings of late contrast starkly with their approach over the 2011/12 offseason, when General Manager Ned Colletti could only go shopping in the third-tier of starting pitchers, signing Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to round out their rotation.  It’s a measure not only of how big an impact the new ownership is having already, but also the desperate mess that the Dodgers had been left in by the calamitous ownership of Frank McCourt.

The Dodgers should always be one of the biggest spenders in MLB. They are in one of the biggest markets in America and are known worldwide as a famous sporting icon. Combine that with the financial power of their new owners and the Dodgers are well set to regain their status among the elite teams in baseball.

Their shopping spree is unlikely to end with Greinke. The Dodgers have until 10 p.m. Sunday evening U.K. time to agree terms with Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin after putting up a $25.7m posting fee to win the rights to negotiate exclusively with him. Comments over the last couple of days have suggested the two parties are not close to a deal, but Ryu’s representatives will be setting their sights high considering the Dodgers’ wealth. Once the deadline looms into view and the Dodgers’ limit becomes clear, it’s likely that Ryu will accept and another piece will be added to the roster.

All of which has significant ramifications for the landscape in the West.

In the Dodgers’ own division, the NL West, their fierce rivals the San Francisco Giants know they have a real fight on their hands to hold on to their status as the best team in the West, let alone their World Series title.  The Giants aren’t going to be brushed to one side; they retain a strong roster and could make some further improvements before Spring Training comes around.

However, fans in San Francisco should be especially pleased that their team took full advantage of making it to the World Series twice in three years. A team’s position as a leading contender should never be taken for granted year-on-year, either due to their own performance being derailed by injuries to key personnel or another competitor suddenly taking a big step forward.  The Giants could field a very good team for the next five years and not got another sniff of the Fall Classic, but they will have their memories of 2010 and 2012 forever.

The same cannot be said for the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 yielded little more than the devastation of being one strike away from glory and yet not taking the prize. Those disappointments were compounded in the 2012 season by a late season slide that saw them lose the AL West division title to the Oakland A’s and then suffer the ignominy of losing the one-game Wild Card contest against the Baltimore Orioles.

A big part of Texas’ plan to get back to the Fall Classic in 2013 was the addition of a top-of-the-rotation starter, namely Zack Greinke. Having lost out to the Dodgers’ dollars, the Rangers now have to regroup and work out where to go next.

Heading into the offseason, the assumption was that if they missed out on Greinke then Josh Hamilton’s return to the Rangers would become much more likely. That assumption may be proved correct, while Texas have been strongly linked in trade talks that would see them acquire the Arizona Diamondbacks’ outfielder Justin Upton and you would expect Texas to either trade for or sign another starting pitcher too now that Greinke is going elsewhere.

Whatever their plans are, you can expect Texas to be busy Christmas shoppers.

Meanwhile their AL West rivals the Los Angeles Angels are having to face the reality of their more illustrious neighbours awakening from their self-imposed slumber.

The Angels were rightfully ridiculed for their rebranding work in 2005 which saw the team change from being the Anaheim Angels to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (of the state of California, of the United States of America, of the World etc). It was a very unsubtle declaration that the organization saw a commercial benefit in bringing ‘Los Angeles’ into the brand.

While the madness of McCourt was leaving the Dodgers in the doldrums, the Angels made a push to become a bigger player within the wider Los Angeles market.  A huge regional TV deal was followed a year ago by the headline-grabbing signing of Albert Pujols on a lucrative ten-year contract. Add in the sparkling potential of Mike Trout and it was all set up for the Angels to, if not usurp the Dodgers, at least to be seen on near equal terms.

The sale of the Dodgers out of bankruptcy to the Guggenheim Baseball Partners group has put an almighty dent into that polished plan.

The Angels acquired Greinke a few days before the trade deadline this summer in the hope of pushing the team into the playoffs and potentially also giving themselves the upper hand in signing the player as a free agent this offseason.  Neither of those hopes were realised and in the latter case it seems that the Dodgers basically blew them out of the running completely.

Instead, the Angels’ additions to their rotation so far have amounted to a trade for the downward trending Tommy Hunter and the signing this week of the solid, if underwhelming, Joe Blanton on a two-year/ $15m contract. There’s still plenty of time for the Angels to improve their roster, but there’s no doubt which team in L.A. is having by far the best of the offseason at this point.

We’ve seen time and time again that winning the offseason doesn’t guarantee any success when the games begin. However, there’s little doubt that the Dodgers are quickly on the rise.

The other teams in MLB have been able to take advantage of the Dodgers’ troubles over the past couple of seasons. Now, the Dodgers are coming back with a vengeance, changing the landscape not just in the West, but throughout MLB.

Keeping up

The MLB Winter Meetings plus Twitter adds up to a cacophony of rumours to leave your head spinning.

On Tuesday evening, no sooner had tweets fluttered onto timelines about a possible trade involving Justin Upton and Cliff Lee than even more tweets reacted to it claiming that the story wasn’t true.

Such back-and-forth rumours are par for the course in these social-media-mad times and it makes for an entertaining few days, not least because the stories are always joined by a number of actual deals being made.

These are the main moves that have taken place as of early Wednesday evening U.K. time

Red Sox revamp

The Boston Red Sox have made two free agent additions to their offence. Former Texas Ranger Mike Napoli will move to Fenway Park on a three-year/$39m contract (£155k per week) that should see him spending most of his time at first base, possibly with occasional starts at catcher when needed.  Napoli’s outstanding 2011 season made his 2012 campaign seem like a let-down and he is not without his flaws as a hitter, but he’ll provide some power to the Red Sox’s lineup and fans with tickets for the Green Monster seats should keep their eyes out for flying baseballs when he’s up to bat.

Boston then took their three-year/$39m contract template and used it to acquire outfielder Shane Victorino. General Manager Ben Cherington has spoken this offseason of the unique dimensions in right field at Fenway and the attractiveness of acquiring a good fielder to man the position.

Victorino would be a decent fit out in right-field, despite not profiling as a corner outfielder when it comes to his ability to hit for power, although there are a few rumblings that current centrefielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s name has been bandied around as a potential trade chip, which could lead to Victorino moving back to his favoured position.  Ellsbury will be a free agent at the end of the 2013 season and will command a significant contract, making it possible that Boston may try to trade him now if they can receive a worthwhile return.

Tampa Bay talk

One of the big talking points coming out of the Winter Meetings so far is the continued speculation that the Tampa Bay Rays may trade from their stock of quality starting pitchers to improve their offence.  The Rays have already added to their lineup this week, firstly in signing light-hitting first baseman James Loney on a one-year/$2m contract and then agreeing a trade with the Miami Marlins for shortstop Yunel Escobar.

Escobar has only been a Marlin for a couple of weeks following his part in Miami’s blockbuster trade with Toronto.  He comes with controversy, from the ever-present whispers about his alleged lackadaisical attitude to his recent shameful homophobic slur incident, but he’s a good fielder at shortstop and his contract is excellent value, making him a very useful pick-up for the cost-conscious Rays.

What Tampa Bay haven’t done as yet is acquire a genuine impact bat and that’s where the trade rumours come in.  We’ve heard similar stories over the past two offseasons and the Rays haven’t found a potential deal to their liking. Maybe it will be different this offseason.

A-Rod, a crock

With the Red Sox and Rays both making moves, the relative inactivity of the New York Yankees so far this offseason is all the more striking. Although they have agreed deals to strengthen their pitching corps, the offence has some notable holes that need to be filled and we found out earlier this week that this includes a glaring vacancy at third base.

Beneath the hysteria of Alex Rodriguez’s postseason woes there was a common sense angle that suggested he was battling an injury. We now know that he was hobbled by a hip complaint for which he has just undergone surgery. A-Rod likely will be out until June and considering he has now had surgery on both hips, serious questions will be raised over how effective he will be on his return.

The Yankees owe Rodriguez a staggering $28m (£17.4m/ £334k per week) in 2013 plus a further $86m in basic salary over the following four years. When the Yankees signed him to a ten-year/$275m contract in December 2007 it was a typically blunt statement of the Bronx Bombers’ ability to bludgeon other teams with their chequebook. Fans of smaller-market teams (such as my Oakland A’s, whose 2012 opening day payroll for their entire 25-man roster amounted to $53m) can be forgiven their lack of sympathy for how badly the contract is working out.

Nationals near deal with Haren

Heading over to the National League, and sticking with the hip theme, the Washington Nationals have agreed in principle a one-year/$13m contract with former Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Dan Haren.  2012 was the first full season in which Haren had not pitched at least 200 innings and there is concern over the state of one of his hips.

Subject to approval from the Nationals’ medical staff, Washington intend to take a calculated gamble on Haren regaining his previous ability not just to pitch plenty of innings, but to pitch plenty of quality innings.  With talks also progressing on first baseman Adam LaRoche agreeing a deal to return to the club, the Nationals are building a formidable roster that looks strong in all departments.

Giants returning

Meanwhile the reigning World Series champions agreed deals to keep hold of two of their recent postseason heroes. Centrefielder Angel Pagan signed a four-year/$40m (£120k per week) contract whilst infielder Marco Scutaro will return on a three-year deal worth $20m (£80k per week).

Things to come

There has been little significant advances, publicly at least, in decisions being made on the two biggest free agents: Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton. They therefore remain the two players generating the most significant interest and rumours.

The smart money is on the colossal spending power of the Los Angeles Dodgers winning Greinke’s signature despite strong interest from the Angels and the Texas Rangers. The rest of the starting pitcher market will kick into gear once Greinke’s destination is decided, with free agents (Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster etc) and trade options being explored.

One of those trade options may be the 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner. It’s looking more and more likely that the New York Mets and R.A. Dickey will not be able to agree to terms on a contract extension. Dickey will be a free agent at the end of the 2013 season and unless a deal can be reached to extend his stay in Citi Field, the Mets will surely look to trade him this offseason whilst his value is at its peak.

As for Josh Hamilton, it’s possible that a surprise team (the Brewers, the Mariners etc) jumps in if no other team sets the bar ridiculously high, but there still looks to be a fair chance that he will return to Texas. Of course, if the Rangers pip the Dodgers for Greinke’s signature then their priorities will change.

Players moving and staying put

All and sundry will be heading to Nashville next week for the annual MLB Winter Meetings.

The transaction rumour mill will go into overdrive as a large gaggle of baseball reporters spend several days standing in a hotel lobby with little else to do other than writing and talking about potential trades and free agent signings.

Often the real news to rumours ratio is very low, but if this past week is any indication then there may be a fair bit of business completed.

Centrefield takes centre stage

The Atlanta Braves have made the biggest free agent signing of the off-season so far by coming to terms on a five-year/$75.25m (£181k per week) contract with former Tampa Bay Rays centrefielder B.J. Upton.

Upton is a divisive player as he is often seen as possessing the talent to be a great player whilst his performances so far amount to him being merely a good one. That’s always struck me as being an unfair assessment. It’s true that he doesn’t have the consistency that you would ideally like to see, but that leads many to focus on the things he doesn’t do well rather than all of the good things that he does do.

He offers a solid mix of some power, speed and fielding ability (he does make the odd mistake on balls he should catch, but he’s a better fielder than some give him credit for) and that combination alongside his age – 28 years old – gives the Braves a good chance to get a decent return on their investment throughout the duration of his contract. That’s something of a rarity in a market where teams act as if the only way to sign a leading free agent is by accepting that they will have to overpay the player during the last few years of the contract.

The Braves are one of several teams this off-season with a vacancy in centrefield. No sooner had Atlanta taken one of the primary targets off the board then the Washington Nationals made their move by completing a trade with the Minnesota Twins for Denard Span. He will be flanked by Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth in Washington’s outfield next season, with the Netherlands’ Roger Bernadina hopefully (from the European baseball fan’s perspective) staying on the roster as the main fourth outfielder.

The number one centrefield option on the market now is former Brave Michael Bourn. It was rumoured that the Philadelphia Phillies could be the team to grab him, although in the last couple of days they have been more strongly linked with former San Francisco Giant Angel Pagan. We’ll see how interest in those two players develops during the Winter Meetings.

Relievers: mixed reviews

Two teams showed two different approaches to adding players to their bullpen this week.

The Los Angeles Angels made the smart move by signing Ryan Madson to a one-year contract that starts with a base salary of $3.5m and could be worth $7m depending on days on the Angels’ roster and games played. Madson missed all of the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery so there are no guarantees on how he will perform for the Angels in 2013, but the deal represents an excellent low-risk, high reward contract.

Madson’s arm injury was a blow for the Cincinnati Reds as it ruined the smart one-year contract they agreed with the closer over the past off-season.  He didn’t pitch a single inning for the Reds, but at least they had the insurance of taking the blow of an injury for one year and then moving on.  For some reason, they’ve overlooked that benefit this offseason and signed Jonathan Broxton to a three-year/ $21m (£84k per week) contract.

There is a large amount of evidence to show that the performances of all but the very elite relief pitchers can vary dramatically from season-to-season, especially when factoring in the ever-present risk of injuries.  Broxton is a good case in point. He had an impressive 2009 season with the Dodgers, but took a step backwards in 2010 and then missed most of the 2011 season through injury. He pitched 58 innings last year split between the Kansas City Royals and the Reds and he did a decent job, although his strikeout rate (7 K’s per 9 innings) was nothing special for a leading reliever and his average fastball is now three miles per hour slower than in his 2009 heyday (94.7 MPH from 97.8).

Put it all together and expecting him to stay on the mound and consistently perform well over the next three years looks a very risky gamble. The move is expected to lead to Cuban flame-thrower Aroldis Chapman moving into the rotation though, so there may be some residual benefit to the deal.

Angels and Braves make a trade

The Angels and Braves didn’t stop rejgging their rosters with their respective free-agent signings and instead completed a trade that sees starting pitcher Tommy Hanson heading to Anaheim for reliever Jordan Walden.

Hanson’s stock has fallen over the past year due to concerns about the state of his shoulder that draw even more attention to his unusual semi-shot-put delivery. The Braves have a host of options for their rotation so decided to move Hanson on, saving themselves $4m in the process and picking up a reliever with a blazing fastball who also has an unorthodox pitching motion. It’s an interesting trade where both teams are taking a bit of a flyer on a risky talent.

Two Yankee pitchers return whilst a catcher leaves

As expected, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera will be donning pinstripes again in 2013. The veteran pitchers both agreed terms with the New York Yankees on one-year contracts and it’s probable – if not completely certain – that these two Yankee legends will be competing in their final season (Pettitte has already retired once, of course).

However, they will not be staring into home plate and taking signs from Russell Martin. The Canadian catcher was a free agent and decided to accept a two-year/$17m contract offer (£102k per week) by the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It makes a good story to say the Pirates jumped in and outbid the Yankees, yet New York knew Martin’s limitations and only wanted him back on their terms.

His year-on-year decline from an excellent 2007 campaign is there for all to see and his 2012 season at the plate was very similar to the .218/.300/.392 batting line with 23 home runs that the Pirates received combined from their catchers Rod Barajas and Michael McKenry in 2012.

He’s an upgrade on Barajas and you’ve got to hope it works out well for the Buccos – if ever there was a team deserving of some luck, it’s them – but that’s as optimistic as you can be about the signing.

Meanwhile the Yankees will be on the lookout for a new catcher as their internal options amount to back-ups and prospects not yet ready to take on the Big League role.

Staying ‘Wright’ here in New York

The week wasn’t just about players finding new teams; it was also about a couple of players extending their stay at their current home.

After Evan Longoria signed his extension with the Tampa Bay Rays, David Wright made it a good week to be a third baseman by signing a new contract with the New York Mets, ending weeks of speculation that he may follow Jose Reyes in being the next ‘face of the franchise’ to become a face from the past.

The Mets signed Wright to a seven-year/$122m extension that, when adding on his $16m salary for 2013, means they’re committing $138m to him over the next eight seasons (£207k per week).  After a disappointing 2011 season, Wright bounced back with an excellent 2012 and despite the innate risk in signing anyone for such a length of time, he’s the sort of cornerstone player that makes such commitments more understandable, especially in New York.

Even though the Mets’ owners have had their money struggles of late, the Mets are a big-market team that should not need to completely unload themselves of all financial commitments to rebuild. Knowing that Wright will not be leaving may be as good as the news gets for Mets fans this offseason, but he can be a big part of their team competing once again within the next couple of years.