Reflections on the draft

BgbFantasyHeadlineThe BaseballGB Fantasy League draft took place on Sunday evening and I’m going through the annual ritual of looking at my roster in the cold light of the day after.

Mark George will be offering his expert opinion on each team’s draft in the near future.  My very much non-expert opinion on my draft for the Cheddar Chasers is that it went quite well.  Not spectacularly well, but decent as a starting point and that’s good enough for me.  One lesson I have learned over the past two seasons is that in-season pick-ups can make a big difference, so there are always opportunities to fill holes and make a trade or two along the way.

I didn’t give myself as much preparation time this year as I have in the past.  In truth, the draft snuck up on me, which it shouldn’t have done because 13 March was the date it was always set to.  I was able to check out player rankings from various sources, but I only ended up participating in one mock draft and that was of questionable value, except for a reminder of how Yahoo’s draft system works.

When someone takes Jered Weaver with the first pick, you get the feeling that it might not be greatly representative of what to expect when the real thing comes along (thoughts of quitting and joining another draft left my mind when Albert Pujols slipped to me at pick number 3 and I decided it would be too much fun not to continue). 

In the actual draft, fourteen of us lined up to draft our teams of twenty players apiece in an enjoyable process lasting around one hour fifty minutes.  Handed a draft position slap-bang in the middle (7th), I had plenty of time to think about each selection. 

I always go into the draft with a selection of players that I’d like to draft if I can get them.  It’s not so much a case of ‘sleepers’ or any great strategy, more that I plump for a few favourites (normally based on fantasy reasons, I should add) and do my best to get them.  I’m sure that’s not the soundest strategy, but I’m an enthusiastic rather than a die-hard fantasy player so if it costs me over the season then I can live with that.  If these players have good years then it always makes it all the sweeter.

Zack Greinke was one of the players on that list and I was able to select him, helped no doubt by the rib injury that will lead to him missing a few starts at the beginning of the season.  He was brilliant for my Cheddar Chasers team in 2009 and while 2010 wasn’t so great for him, I’m confident he’ll bounce back strongly by getting out of the malaise in Kansas City and facing National League lineups. 

Another guy I wanted and was able to select was Drew Stubbs.  He’s not exactly an impact player and experienced fantasy owners may well raise an eyebrow at me for selecting him in the sixth round, but he’s got a good mix of skills and strikes me as a player who could work well in a Head-to-Head league where season-long consistency isn’t quite so important.  While he might have some cold weeks, I’m betting on him having other weeks where his contributions push me over the top in several offensive categories.

Finally, Carlos Pena was still on the board in the ninth round and he was another player on my ‘2011 favourites’ list so I snapped him up.  His terrible batting average last year (.196) makes him a gamble and I don’t mind having a high risk/high reward player or two.  He’s never going to hit for a good average but that .196 mark was very harsh (he had a .222 batting average on balls in play, for a start) and I can see him getting back to around .240.  I have a hunch he could be the Adrian Beltre of 2011 after joining the Cubs on a one-year deal hoping to have a big year to set up a multi-year contract.  I tend to watch quite a few Cubs home games, due to them playing so many during the daytime, and can see Pena having some multi-homer days with the assistance of the Wrigley wind.

Away from my 2011 favourites, I made some customary irrational decisions based around my Oakland allegiance.

Dan Haren was available when my turn came around in the eighth round and after something of an emotional struggle, I passed.  He’s a former Oakland A now playing for the Angels and I’m not having any divided loyalties on this: I don’t want to be cheering if he’s doing well. I then went against my better judgement and selected A’s starter Gio Gonzalez.  The fault here wasn’t favouritism: I genuinely think he’s going to take a jump forward.  My mistake was that I’ve now probably jinxed him.  

That was something I learned from during the draft.  Coco Crisp was available late on and I probably would have taken him as an additional bat if I wasn’t already worried that he’s going to break down again.  It wasn’t so much the fantasy risk at play, more that if I drafted him it would guarantee that he would spend time on the DL.  I know Spring Training stats count for little, but his impressive performances so far in Arizona are a reflection on his current good health and if he can stay that way (a big if, I know), he will be a real sparkplug for the A’s offence.  I’m more than happy for him not to be helping my fantasy team if that means he’s helping my real team.

That’s not the cold, analytical approach I should be taking, but that’s how I like to run my fantasy team. 

Maybe this year, with a big slice of luck, it might just work out.

4 thoughts on “Reflections on the draft

  1. Chris

    I think Greinke will do well for you – I was choosing between him & Hamels in Rd 5, and only went Hamels because Greinke will miss a couple of starts in April.

    The Stubbs pick annoyed me – he was in my sights when you took him!

    I’m more than happy that you passed up Haren! I think he’s going to do well for the Angels – hopefully he will prove me right!

    I’m pretty happy with my team (if we ignore the glaring hole at SS) – biggest surprise for me was being able to get Matt Holliday in Round 3 – at pick #33 overall. Huge bargain IMO.

    Reply
  2. Matt Smith Post author

    Hamels was another pitcher I looked at too. He’s effectively the 4th starter for the Phillies and that could help him in terms of reducing expectations and allowing him to just go out and pitch.

    I do expect Haren to pitch well; there are not that many genuine number 1 aces out there but I’d consider him in that class. His time in Arizona (bandbox and out of the spotlight last year) seems to have made people underestimate him.

    Holliday in round 3 definitely was a good deal. There’s often 1 or 2 players to fall, normally with owners looking to fill certain positions in the early rounds.

    Reply
  3. Kev robson(super-sox)

    Sorry guys missed the draft. Took the night off work but had to make emergency hospital dash! Oh the joys of small children! Didn’t seem to get much joy from the auto-pick…looks like it’s going to be a long hard season ahead!!

    Reply

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