So, my prediction skills are officially terrible!
MLB.com is reporting that Barry Zito has agreed to a monster deal with the Giants: seven years for $126 million.  I guess out of all the rivals he could have joined, having him join the National League is a plus. Seeing him with “San Francisco” on his jersey will be painful to say the least though.
Now, I’m not one to bash Barry Zito. He’s not the “Ace” pitcher that some (including the Giants) still believe him to be, but he’s a very reliable number two with an unblemished fitness record and that’s not to be sniffed at (particularly when some teams are giving Jason Marquis $21 million). Barry’s main weakness is his tendency to give up fly balls (and therefore homers). The rumoured move to the hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field in Arlington looked ill-fated but the AT&T Park should suit him well. Staying in the Bay Area will take away a good deal of uncertainty for him as well. Finally, it’s accepted that the AL is the tougher league for pitchers right now. So there are some positives to build on.
However, the 2006 Giants were not very good and, as noted in the Hardball Times 2007 Annual (well worth buying by the way!), the real indictment of their season was that there were no great disasters or disappointments.  The team played about as well as expected and ended up with a 76-85 record.  Their “win now with Barry” experiment has not paid off and they are left with a core of ageing players. Zito is a good pitcher, but he will simply be replacing Jason Schmidt’s contribution rather than making them markedly better and there’s little to suggest that there will be much improvement from the rest of the roster in 2007 (Noah Lowry being the main possible exception).
The NL West has rebounded from their “NL Worst” moniker of 2005 and it could be one of the most competitive divisions in 2007 with the Padres and Dodgers remaining strong and the D-Backs having several top quality youngsters coming through (alongside a genuine Ace in Brandon Webb, and the continuing rumours of a Randy Johnson return). Even the Rockies have cause for optimism.  Zito will help the Giants in the near future at least, but he’s not going to make them competitive on his own. They need an overhaul to get back on track. Bringing in Zito as a part of this would make sense, yet chaining yourself to a seven year big money commitment to a pitcher doesn’t smack me as being part of a great masterplan. Only time will tell.
As for Barry, he commented recently in the San Francisco Chronicle that his main focus is on winning titles. $126 million is enough money for anyone to be dazzled by. Whether he will end up with a ring or two to go with the cash is debatable. Certainly in the short term at least you would fancy the Mets as a much better bet for post-season glory. A lot can happen in seven years though and maybe the Zito signing will prove to be the catalyst for some good times in San Fran. Giants fans at least have a little bit of hope again.
