Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Trade talk begins

The MLB season has a rhythm to it; a series of different periods that we move through as the year goes by.

The dark winter months lead to Spring Training, Spring Training leads to the joy of Opening Day, Opening Day gives way to early-season consolidation, the early-season turns to the All-Star Break, before the All-Star Break gets us to where we are now: the trade period.

The shift from an All-Star mindset to the rampant rumour mill that takes hold prior to 31 July came about more suddenly than expected. 

The National League had just picked up their second victory in two years on Tuesday in the All-Star Game when the news broke on the same night that the Milwaukee Brewers had become the first team to roll the dice.  The Brew Crew bolstered the back of their bullpen by trading for Francisco Rodriguez from the New York Mets.

“And we’re off”, was the cry.

The suddenness was felt because up to that point the trade market had been relatively quiet.  No real deals of note had taken place and there hadn’t been a great deal of rumours flying around either.

Looking through the standings, you could make a case for up to seventeen teams as potentially still having a shot at making the playoffs.  For one team to gain a notable player via a trade, another team has to be prepared to part with them and there is still a certain amount of jockeying for position, a final week or so of teams holding fire to see where they are before deciding to make a move, to stand pat or to start building towards next year.

The Minnesota Twins are the best example of this.  When you consider how badly things went for them during the first half, they should be out of it.  However, no team has run away in the AL Central so the Twins’ good form over the last month has given them a chance.  The next week will make or break their season: going 5-1 or 6-0 would keep them firmly in the division race, going 1-5 would all but end their hopes.  Until those games are played, Minnesota probably won’t be making any moves and it’s a similar story for a number of other teams.

The other big factor that has made the rumour mill spin more slowly than we’ve seen previously is that the players that normally get traded are those who are either out of contract at the end of this season or the next.  The impact players that fall into that category are typically on teams that are not about to part with them.

First base is a good case in point.  If the Brewers had struggled through the first half then they would have dangled Prince Fielder (not literally, that would be a heavy – not to mention pricey – load to wave around) to see if someone was prepared to offer them a package greater in value than the draft picks they will receive when he leaves as a free agent.  As it is, there is no chance of Fielder leaving now, with the Brewers hoping to win it all in his final year with the club. 

Albert Pujols isn’t going anywhere either, so that leaves the Cubs’ Carlos Pena as arguably the best first-base proposition.  He’s a decent player to have and will add some pop to whichever lineup he goes to, but he isn’t near the Fielder/Pujols level in terms of the impact he would have.

The best free-agent-to-be from there would be the Mets’ Jose Reyes, a fact that will cause their fans to shudder. No one seems to know quite what state the Mets are in financially; however any logical thought-process would determine that they not only need to keep him now but also do all they can to re-sign him over the offseason.  For the sake of Mets fans, let’s hope logic applies at Citi Field.

Carlos Beltran is the Met more likely to be moved and is the best bat (potentially) on the market.  While he’s not going to match the impact he made last time he was traded mid-season – his unforgettable run with the Astros in 2004 -  plenty of teams would be interested and that’s where some of the more rampant rumours are likely to focus.

After Beltran, teams will be looking at players such as the Padres’ Ryan Ludwick and the A’s Josh Willingham to add an extra bat to their roster.  It’s a sign of the time of year that when I listened to Willingham smack a homer into the second deck in the early hours of Saturday morning, my first thought after the initial celebration was that a few more of those would make him a more attractive prospect for a contender.

When it comes to pitching, there isn’t a Cliff Lee out there waiting to be added to the top of a contender’s rotation.  The Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda would be a solid pitching addition, a decent number three to add to your pack, and both Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Marquis could eat some innings.  That might not sound like a lot, and won’t get the pulses racing, but it could be enough for one or two teams to get over the line into the postseason.

Relief pitching is always fashionable at this time of year, as the K-Rod deal shows, and the Padres look to be the in prime position to start a bidding war with Heath Bell and Mike Adams sure to attract the attention of a number of teams.  Again, while those type of deals don’t steal the headlines, they might just make the difference in a tight division race.

And of course, there’s always a chance that someone will make a big move out of nowhere.  Maybe the reigning NL Cy Young winner Ubaldo Jimenez will get dealt, as a few rumours along those lines are being whispered?  The Rockies would need to be bowled over to part with their ace pitcher, yet a team like the Yankees or the Tigers may feel it’s worth the price.

There are plenty of teams with a chance to make 2011 a successful year, while the lack of relegation means that the struggling sides aren’t forced into short-term measures and can trade away some players to rebuild for another year.

That means we should expect plenty of rumours and a few surprises over the next fortnight.