The Miami Marlins will welcome World Series Champions the St. Louis Cardinals to their new ballpark tonight as the true curtain-raiser on the 2012 MLB season (the A’s-M’s series in Japan counts in the standings, but didn’t really have an Opening Day feel to it).
Opening Night means two things: 1) our wonderful journey of day after day of baseball to enjoy has begun for another year, and 2) it’s time for some predictions.
Other commitments have knocked my normal preparedness off course, so apologies to fellow writers for not coordinating our group predictions (please add them into the comments below!). Here’s how I think the 2012 division and Wild Card winners will look, with the caveat that I predicted a Braves-Twins World Series last year.
If I didn’t pick your team to make the playoffs, treat it less as a snub and more as a good luck charm
American League
East: New York Yankees
Central: Detroit Tigers
West: Los Angeles Angels
Wild Cards: Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox.
There are no real surprise here, which doesn’t mean to say there won’t be any as the season unfolds, but these are the teams I would expect to make it.
The Yankees look strong right across the board, while the Tigers were a long way in front of the Central pack last year and should remain so. It will be a very close run thing between the Angels and Rangers for the West title; however the former’s front four to the starting rotation looks extremely impressive (against a very good Rangers rotation) and I think that will just prove to be the difference.
The one question most will have when looking at the American League is which of the Rays or Red Sox will take the second Wild Card.
The Rays’ underdog story is easy to get behind and they will continue to push their more illustrious and wealthy rivals close, with Matt Moore coming into the rotation and a healthy Evan Longoria joined by Luke Scott and the returning Carlos Pena in the batting lineup.
The Red Sox are not without their problems, from the question marks over whether Bobby Valentine’s approach will mesh with the Boston veterans to the health issues with Carl Crawford and now closer Andrew Bailey.
I’m tipping them over the Rays because they still have some outstanding talent and after last year’s dismal collapse, the ownership and Front Office are likely to make an extra push as the season progresses to make sure they get across the line this time (Roy Oswalt joining the rotation in mid-season, perhaps?).
National League
East: Philadelphia Phillies
Central: Milwaukee Brewers
West: Arizona Diamondbacks
Wild Cards: St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants
The Senior Circuit doesn’t have the same level of certainty to me; I’ve changed my mind several times on most of these selections.
In the East, there is genuine doubt over how the Phillies’ offence will function with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s return dates being uncertain, while losing Oswalt from the rotation is a blow. Still, any team with Halladay, Lee and Hamels at the front of the rotation is going to be very strong and there’s enough offence there to keep the wins coming alongside that standard of pitching.
The Marlins appear to be a popular pick to upset the odds and they could ride on the momentum of the start of their new era if Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes stay healthy. That’s a big ‘if’ though and the excitement of their new additions shouldn’t completely disguise the fact that they were a long way off competing (72-90, 30 games behind the Phillies, 17 behind the Braves) without Johnson and Ramirez playing regularly last year, so the possibility of similar injury problems and something like an 84 win season rather than a 90 win season makes me cautious about jumping on the bandwagon just yet.
I can see the Central being a very close race between the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds, although the competition from the other two divisions makes it very unlikely the three could sweep up the division and two Wild Card spots, so one team is going to miss out. Even though they’ve added Mat Latos to the rotation, I’m going to use last year’s form as a decent guide and predict that the Reds be the odd one out. Selecting the Brewers to retain the division after losing Prince Fielder could be a bit of a reach, but I like their rotation and the addition of Aramis Ramirez plus steady contributions from others should keep their offence being competitive.
As for the Cardinals, whenever I look at their roster they always seem to be in surprisingly good shape for a team that’s just lost one of the game’s great players. Pujols obviously will be missed, but shifting Berkman to first and adding Carlos Beltran to the outfield was a convincing way of making up some of the difference.
In the West, I think the D-Backs are a much better team than some seem to be giving them credit for. Their division title last year was not a fluke and they will be at the top of the standings again so long as they get a bit of luck with injuries and don’t need the likes of John McDonald, Lyle Overbay and Willie Bloomquist (hurry back Stephen Drew) to use up too many at-bats. Buster Posey’s return will be very significant for the Giants and even though the offence still underwhelms, when set alongside their pitching the team should be good enough to edge out the Dodgers and Braves for the second Wild Card.
Postseason
There’s no way of knowing how this would all shake out, but here’s my best guess.
The Rangers will edge the Red Sox in the ‘play in’ but then lose out in the Division Series to the Yankees. The Angels will get past the Tigers but then narrowly fall to New York.
In the NL, the Giants will knock out the Cardinals but will then be beaten by the Phillies, who will make it back to the World Series after beating the D-Backs after they dismiss the Brewers in the NLDS.
That all leads to a Yankees-Phillies World Series and I’ll take the Phillies to gain revenge for 2009.
Your turn next
Your guesses are as good as mine …
8 p.m. 4 April EDIT: I’ve added Mark George’s predictions below rather than put them into the Comments. Here’s Mark’s take on each division, the playoff spots and the end-of-season award winners.
AL East
Yankees
Rays (Wild Card)
Red Sox
Jays
Orioles
AL Central
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Indians
Twins
AL West
Angels
Rangers (Wild Card)
Mariners
Athletics
Rangers beat Rays in Wild Card playoff
NL East
Phillies
Marlins (Wild Card)
Nationals
Braves
Mets
NL Central
Reds
Brewers (Wild Card)
Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs
Astros
NL West
D-Backs
Dodgers
Giants
Rockies
Padres
Brewers beat Marlins in Wild Card playoff
World Series
Tigers beat Reds in 5
AL MVP
Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP
Joey Votto
AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young
Cole Hamels
AL Rookie of the Year
Matt Moore
NL Rookie of the Year
Yonder Alonso
