Home MLB MLB 2015 predictions

MLB 2015 predictions

by Matt Smith

The 2014/15 MLB off-season provided plenty of stories and many teams have made significant changes to their rosters. No one knows how things will pan out over the season ahead, but it’s always fun to make some educated guesses.

Here’s what Mark George and I think might transpire over the next seven months.

American League East

Mark George

1. Boston Red Sox, 2. Toronto Blue Jays, 3. Baltimore Orioles, 4. New York Yankees, 5. Tampa Bay Rays

Possibly the toughest division to call, as you could make a case for any of my top three here to win it.

I’ll give the edge to the new-look Red Sox batting lineup, although their rotation is nowhere near as strong as it has been in other play-off years. I think Toronto push the White Sox for a Wild Card place but fall agonisingly short. I’m disappointed that the Orioles didn’t take the chance to boost their roster after such an impressive 2014, but I would still expect them to be in the Wild Card mix.

The Yankees’ slim play-off chances will vanish if Sabathia struggles again and surely it’s only a matter of time before Tanaka needs Tommy John surgery. I think a .500 season is a good result for them.

Matt Smith

1. Orioles, 2. Red Sox (WC), 3. Blue Jays, 4. Yankees, 5. Rays

The AL East is a real toss-up. The reigning champion Orioles do not have star players and yet their record in 2014 was not a fluke. They have a very solid team with an underrated pitching staff and, despite the loss of Nelson Cruz, I have them edging out the more-fancied Red Sox.

There’s no doubt that Boston have a formidable batting lineup now, with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval being two quality free agent additions. Whether the pitching is quite where they need it to be is a matter for debate. Questions can also be asked of the Blue Jays. They so often flatter to deceive and even with the additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson they don’t quite fill me with confidence that they’ll come out on top once we get to September.

The Yankees have some play-off calibre talent but there are too many red flags around the health of key contributors to make me believe they will last the pace, whilst the Rays are probably taking a step backwards after a winter of upheaval.

American League Central

Mark George

1. Detroit Tigers, 2. Chicago White Sox (Wild card), 3. Cleveland Indians, 4. Kansas City Royals, 5. Minnesota Twins

I really like the moves the White Sox have made this winter and was very close to picking them to win the division, but I think the Tigers still edge it, although they will obviously miss Scherzer. White Sox take a Wild Card place.

I’ve seen a lot of reports saying the Indians could be this year’s Royals but the rest of the rotation behind Kluber doesn’t convince me yet. The Royals will come back down to earth a bit but still should be close to .500. The lack of power may be their undoing, but plenty of young talent there.

I feel a bit for the Twins as they await the arrival of their top prospects in the next few years. The rotation’s OK, but I don’t think they will hit consistently enough to challenge.

Matt Smith

1. Indians, 2. Tigers, 3. White Sox, 4. Royals, 5. Twins

Add my AL Central to the Indians reports Mark referred to above! I normally take one flyer in my predictions and here is the 2015 entry. I’m calling this season as the moment when the Tigers’ run comes to an end and, although the Indians are far from a sure thing, I like their chances with Francona at the helm and a good group of players across the roster.

Royals fans won’t be impressed to see their 2014 World Series appearance dismissed with even the White Sox jumping past them in the standings. Chicago have made some good additions over the winter, not quite enough to make a Wild Card though, and whilst last season was magical for Kansas City, their run came as a good team, not a great one. Their limited off-season moves make me think they will take a step backwards, with the Twins simply waiting for prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to hopefully make Major league debuts at some point.

American League West

Mark George

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 2. Seattle Mariners (Wild Card), 3. Oakland Athletics, 4. Texas Rangers, 5. Houston Astros

I’ll give the edge to the Angels’ batters here although I can see the race with the Mariners and their pitching staff going down to the wire.

I think the departure of Donaldson and an outfield light on power harms the A’s chances this year but that could change if Billy Beane is active with trades. The Rangers’ hopes were dealt a blow with Darvish’s injury but they will jump back above the Astros after an injury-riddled 2014. Houston’s lineup isn’t too shabby but I’m not convinced they have the pitching depth to keep up with the rest of the division. More prospects on the way, though.

Matt Smith

1. Angels, 2. Mariners (WC), 3. A’s, 4. Astros, 5. Rangers.

I’m deliberately downplaying the play-off chances of my Oakland A’s, so take my AL West prediction with a pinch of salt. The Angels should retain their division crown, but the Mariners have a chance to push them if Nelson Cruz provides the big bat they’ve been looking for and 2015 is the year young pitchers Taijuan Walker and James Paxton take a step forward and establish themselves as Major League starters.

The Lonestar State battle for avoiding the bottom spot could go either way depending on how quickly the Astros’ young talent develops. The Rangers are suffering from some dreadful bad luck with injuries and losing Yu Darvish and Jurickson Profar for the entire season before it has even begun doesn’t bode well.

National League East

Mark George

1. Washington Nationals, 2. Miami Marlins (Wild Card), 3. New York Mets, 4. Atlanta Braves, 5. Philadelphia Phillies

The Nats may well be the best all-round team in the National League, so I have to back them again. I think Miami grab a Wild Card place, boosted when Jose Fernandez returns. The injury to Zack Wheeler hurts the Mets, but I still think they will finish just over .500.

The rebuilding Braves have very good pitching but no lineup depth after Freddie Freeman, who could well lead the league in walks. The Phillies… oh boy. I’m amazed Ruben Amaro hasn’t been fired after failing to trade away the veteran pieces last year. Rollins is gone but Amaro’s criticism of Ryan Howard won’t help anyone and now Cliff Lee is hurt again. Cole Hamels has to be dealt this year, but Amaro may not last long enough to trade him in what will be a long year for Phillies fans.

Matt Smith

1. Nationals, 2. Mets, 3. Marlins, 4. Braves, 5. Phillies.

This is the easiest division winner of the six to predict. The Washington Nationals are the overwhelming favourite to win the NL East, boasting an outstanding rotation and plenty of hitting talent to boot. The big question for the Nats is likely to be how well they prepare for the post-season if, as expected, they have the division wrapped up with a couple of weeks to spare.

The Braves strangely have decided to take a firm step backwards and the Phillies are plumbing the depths during their pay-back period after years riding a veteran team to division titles and a World Series triumph in 2008, so the interest in the division comes with the Marlins and Mets: two teams with some exciting young talent on show. I’ve just given the edge to New York, yet if the Marlins can keep in contention before Jose Fernandez makes his long-awaited return from injury in the second half of the season, Miami might just be the surprise package during September.

National League Central

Mark George

1. St Louis Cardinals, 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (Wild Card), 3. Milwaukee Brewers, 4. Chicago Cubs, 5. Cincinnati Reds

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Cards are baseball’s equivalent of Germany’s football team. Every year you look at their team and think it’s pretty damn good.

The Pirates will miss Russell Martin but the return of Burnett deepens the rotation and I still back them for a Wild Card place. The Brewers look pretty solid across the board and should be a .500 team.

A lot of people are tipping the Cubs to win it all, and as much as I like Joe Maddon and the vast array of young talent, I don’t think they will just yet. However, I think they will take a big step forward this year and may be close to .500. I think the Reds finish last as their pitching depth has eroded, especially at the back of their rotation, and they may not be able to resist a good offer for Johnny Cueto if they fall out of contention early.

Matt Smith

1. Cardinals, 2. Pirates (WC), 3. Cubs, 4. Brewers, 5. Reds

The off-season has been all about the Cubs and there are many reasons for long-suffering fans to be excited about 2015; however, they’re coming from a long way back (73-89) and although I expect them to take a big jump forward, that’s probably going to be in the 84 or 85 win range that would see them just short of a Wild Card place.

The Pirates will be strong again, but the loss of catcher Russell Martin could impact the team’s pitching staff and they may be hoping for too much in seeing if A.J. Burnett can recapture his previous form. I see the Cardinals’ new recruit Jason Heyward having an impressive year to help them take the division once again. The Brewers and Reds will bring up the rear.

National League West

Mark George

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 2. San Francisco Giants, 3. San Diego Padres, 4. Arizona Diamondbacks, 5. Colorado Rockies

I have to back my team to win the divison, and there is lots to be positive about for Dodger fans. I really like the moves the new front office have made and although there are injury doubts over Ryu and Kenley Jansen, they should be winning the division comfortably.

Like the Cubs, the Padres are being tipped to improve greatly, and I think they will, but I’m tipping the Giants to just hold them off – although neither team makes the playoffs. The Giants have failed to add significantly to their lineup and will miss Pablo Sandoval and the injured Hunter Pence. The Giants are therefore even more reliant on Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. The Padres will score more runs, and the pitching staff is pretty good, but I think they will fall short defensively, particularly in the centerfield and even more so if Carlos Quentin plays at first base.

Arizona should be better if Paul Goldschmidt stays healthy but they have far too many corner outfielders and will be weak offensively at catcher. The pitching staff hardly screams quality either. Talking of pitching, I really don’t think the Rockies’ staff is up to much. Admittedly playing half of your games in Coorsfield doesn’t help. Even if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy and aren’t traded, the Rockies won’t pitch well enough to be a serious contender. There’s also the chance Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon come back down to earth after their surprising 2014 seasons, but at least Nolan Arenado looks an All-Star calibre third baseman.

Matt Smith

1. Dodgers, 2. Giants (WC), 3. Padres, 4. Rockies, 5. Diamondbacks

It’s the same old story for the Giants: no one is tipping them to do much, although they shouldn’t care what others think having enjoyed three World Series celebrations in five years. The reigning champions have had a very uninspiring off-season so the eye-catching moves of the Padres could lead many to see them pushed down to third, but I’ll give San Fran the benefit of the doubt.

As for San Diego, manager Bud Black has earned a good reputation in recent years despite not having a huge amount of talent to work with. He may need to prove himself this season by making a team out of the array of new faces that have joined over the winter.

None of which should bother the Dodgers too much. The biggest spenders have changed the tone of the team, particularly in the infield, yet their quality still remains. The one question you could level at them is the starting rotation depth behind their excellent duo of Kershaw and Greinke. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start the season on the Disabled List and both Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson have chequered injury records that could make LA vulnerable.

The Rockies and D-Backs will once again be at the bottom, although it will be interesting to keep track of the progress of Cuban import Yasmani Thomas in his first year with Arizona.

American League Play-offs

Mark George

Wild Card: Mariners over White Sox,

Division Series: Mariners over Tigers in 4, Angels over Red Sox in 4,

Championship Series: Angels over Mariners in 6

Matt Smith

WC: Red Sox over Mariners,

DS: Angels over Red Sox in 5, Orioles over Indians in 4,

CS: Orioles over Angels in 7.

National League Play-offs

Mark George

WC: Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins

DS: Los Angeles Dodgers over Pittsburgh Pirates in 4, Washington Nationals over St Louis Cardinals in 5

CS: Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers in 7

Matt Smith

WC: Pirates beat Giants.

DS: Pirates beat Nationals in 5, Dodgers beat Cardinals in 4,

CS: Dodgers beat Pirates in 6.

World Series

Mark George

Nationals over Angels in 5

I think I’ve tipped the Nationals to win it all several times over the past few years, but this time they really do it, honest!

Matt Smith

Dodgers over Orioles in 5

I have a feeling the Dodgers will add a player or two during the season (Cole Hamels?) and their overall strength will win the title.

Player Awards

Mark George

AL MVP: 1) Mike Trout, 2) Jose Abreu, 3) Miguel Cabrera

AL Cy Young: 1) Felix Hernandez, 2) David Price, 3) Garrett Richards

NL MVP: 1) Mike Stanton, 2) Andrew McCutchen, 3) Ian Desmond

NL Cy Young: 1) Clayton Kershaw, 2) Adam Wainwright, 3) Madison Bumgarner

Matt Smith

AL MVP: 1) Mike Trout, 2) Robinson Cano, 3) Jose Abreu

AL Cy Young: 1) Felix Hernandez, 2) Corey Kluber, 3) David Price

NL MVP: 1) Andrew McCutchen, 2) Jason Heyward, 3) Giancarlo Stanton

NL Cy Young: 1) Max Scherzer, 2) Clayton Kershaw, 3) Madison Bumgarner

You may also like

1 comment

WHGB: Looking back at April | BaseballGB May 3, 2015 - 11:04 am

[…] the Cardinals as “baseball’s equivalent of Germany’s football team” in our 2015 prediction feature and that’s a perfect way to describe the Red Birds. They have an excellent track record of […]

Reply

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.