The 2008 regular season technically has already started, but I don’t think the 1-1 split by the A’s and Red Sox provides me with much of an advantage when it comes to putting together predictions for the upcoming season. The American League is my focus today, with a preview of the National League tomorrow.
The American League is less open than the Senior circuit. By my reckoning, each division is going to be a battle between just two teams and the wild card will be between the second-placed teams in the East and the Central.
AL East
No surprises here: the Red Sox and Yankees will battle it out for the division, with the possibility that both will make the play-offs anyway. In 2007, Boston were the best team in baseball and deservedly won their second World Series in four years. They’ve made very few changes to their roster during the off-season, but that shouldn’t be mistaken for standing still. They have excellent young talent in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz, while Matsuzaka and Okajima have the potential to build on their first years in the Majors. Losing Schilling to the DL is a blow and Beckett’s status is still up in the air, but the fact that they have ready-made alternatives in-house shows the strength of the organization. The defending champs are always seen as “the team to beatâ€; in this case that label is more than justified.
Looking at their roster, it appears to have been a relatively quiet off-season in the Bronx. Rather than bringing in the normal raft of expensive free agents from other teams, the Yankees concentrated their efforts on re-signing A-Rod, Posada and Rivera and keeping hold of young pitchers such as Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy instead of trading for Johan Santana. Of course, the main personnel change involved the departure of long-time manager Joe Torre and the arrival of former Yankee Joe Giradi as his replacement. That should bring a different feel to the clubhouse and could be turned into an issue if there is a repeat of last year’s slow start when the Yanks finished April at the bottom of the East with a 9-14 record. Regardless of who is at the helm, this is a quality group of players who will run the Red Sox close.
Elsewhere, the Blue Jays are a good team by any normal standard, but are they good enough to compete with the top teams in the AL? I don’t think so. If everyone keeps healthy and a few players have career years then maybe they have a chance at second place and the wildcard. Newcomer Scott Rolen will start the season on the DL, B.J. Ryan isn’t quite ready to return from his lost ’07 campaign and Casey Janssen is already out for the season, so it doesn’t look promising in Toronto. Conversely things are starting to look brighter in Tampa Bay, where a new nickname and colour scheme will be accompanied by more genuine reasons to believe that a new chapter in Rays history is about to begin. Matt Garza should be a good compliment to Kazmir (who will open the year on the DL) and Shields in the rotation, but the fact that uber-prospect Evan Longoria has been sent down to start the season in Triple A is a reminder that we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. The Rays’ objective is to have their first .500+ season and they’ve got a great chance to do so, with the promise that they will get better and better over the next 5-6 years. The Orioles have finally decided to start a much-needed rebuilding plan, trading Tejada and Bedard, so expect them to sit in the basement for a few seasons.
Prediction: 1) Boston, 2) New York (wildcard), 3) Toronto, 4) Tampa Bay, 5) Baltimore.
AL Central
The Indians won the Central by eight games in ’07 and very nearly defeated the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Tigers undoubtedly won the off-season by trading for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. So who is your money on in ’08? Both teams are going to be very strong and it should be a compelling pennant race, but I just fancy Detroit to win through in the end. While their bullpen is a question mark with Zumaya and Rodney on the shelf, the batting lineup is downright scary and the rotation should be solid. Cleveland have sat still during the off-season (Jamey Carroll hardly amounts to an ‘impact signing’) and I can’t help but feel that they will pay the price. Outside of Sizemore and Martinez, the batting lineup is solid rather than spectacular (Travis Hafner’s disappointing 2007 season is more likely to be the start of the end than an aberration) and you have to fear that Fausto Carmona’s heavy workload last season might catch up with him. If this is to be C.C. Sabathia’s final year in Cleveland, they may need a mid-season trade or two to edge back ahead and avoid parting on a disappointing note.
The Twins and the White Sox will make sure that this is just a two horse race. Minnesota are beginning their post-Santana/Hunter stage and facing up to the fact that the Front Office (and owners) failed to take the extra step needed to win it all with this team. It looks as though Livan Hernandez may be taking Santana’s place as the Twins’ opening day starter, which says all you need to know about their odds of contending in the AL this season. A carefully managed comeback season by Francisco Liriano should be one of their main goals this year. As for the White Sox, you’ve got to give them credit for not giving up. After a dreadful 2007 they have decided to chance their arm one more time by adding Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher to their veteran core of hitters and dishing out big money to relievers Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink (the four-year contract given to the latter is a strong candidate for ‘howler of the off-season’ honours). If Konerko, Dye and Thome can all stay healthy and all have big years then maybe they have a shot, but even then you have to seriously question the starting pitching after Buehrle and Vazquez.
The Royals started their long road back to respectability last year and this should continue in 2008 under the guidance of new manager Trey Hillman. Expect Alex Gordon to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing rookie year and for a strong season by youngster Billy Butler.
Prediction: 1) Detroit, 2) Cleveland, 3) Chicago, 4) Twins, 5) Royals.
AL West
Are the Angels going to lose it? That’s the question in the AL West this year. With the A’s and the Rangers being non-factors due to their respective rebuilding projects, the Mariners are the only real competition and most people agree that their 88-74 record in ’07 exaggerated the team’s true level of ability.
The Angels lost out on Miguel Cabrera over the off-season but were successful in their pursuit of Torii Hunter and they appeared to be well set in all areas: batting, starting pitching and relief. Yes, the Mariners tried to make things interesting by signing a genuine ace in Erik Bedard, but the talent gap between the two teams still looked to be substantial. “The M’s only have a chance if the Angels are hit hard by injuriesâ€, was the standard line of thinking.
Well, the Angels have lost staff ace John Lackey for the first month of the season, their number two starter Kelvim Escobar is fearing for his career and top reliever Scot Shields is likely to begin the year on the DL as well. So maybe the moves by GM Bill Bavasi will be rewarded after all?
The problem for Seattle is that even in it’s current injured form, you would still have to conclude that LA’s roster is the stronger of the two. If the Angels run into more misfortune, the M’s get great years from Bedard and Felix Hernandez (certainly not out of the question) and find a bit more offense, then they could put LA under real pressure and edge them out. That’s a lot of ‘ifs’ though. It is still the Angels’ division to lose, although they’re unlikely to get any further with their current roster.
Prediction: 1) LA, 2) Seattle, 3) Oakland, 4) Texas.
