Unpredictable pitchers
The eternal frustration of fantasy baseball is that however much research you put into preparing for a draft, to a great extent your success depends on predicting the unpredictable. The same applies for a GM of an MLB organization, only they are playing with real money, real human beings (and their families) and will really be facing the sack if it all goes wrong.
When it comes to unpredictability, pitchers top the lot. Take the Indians for example. Their staff ace C.C. Sabathia picked up the win on Friday night against Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays. Nothing unusual about that you might think, but this was only his second ‘W’ of the season. His 2-5 record with a 6.55 ERA is not what people expected from the reigning Cy Young winner heading into the season. Fortunately for Cleveland’s GM Mark Shapiro, Sabathia’s slow start has been counter-balanced by Cliff Lee’s unexpected turn around. The left-hander struggled so badly in 2007 that he was demoted to the Minors during the season, but he has a perfect 6-0 record in 2008. Lee has given up just four earned runs during this period, good for an 0.81 ERA, and has struck out thirty-nine batters while walking just two. Beating the Yankees on Wednesday night in a much-hyped battle against the then fellow undefeated starter Chien-Ming Wang summed up the fairytale.
Cliff Lee has been a big bonus for Cleveland, yet the Angels needed more than a pick-me-up after their formidable 1-2 punch of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar both went down with injuries during Spring Training. The Angels turned to the lesser-known Santana and he has responded brilliantly. Ervin suffered a similar experience to Cliff Lee last year, being sent down to Triple A for a month after a disappointing first half to the season that ended with him tagged with fourteen Major League losses to seven victories (and a 5.76 ERA to boot). So far this season, he’s 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA and his last start against the Royals, a four-hit shut out, was probably the best of his career. Joe Saunders (6-1) isn’t doing too badly either.
The Angels had to cope without the reassuring presence of their ace on the mound on opening day. In Minnesota, they had no such problems with sending out their number one starter for game number one. The trouble was, he didn’t seem to offer much reassurance to the Twins’ faithful. Livan Hernandez is a sizeable step down from Johan Santana as your staff ace, but eight games in and he is 5-1 with a 3.83 ERA. In his last two starts, Hernandez has played his role as the staff leader extremely well. Against their AL Central rivals the Tigers and the White Sox, he came out with the win in both, pitching seven innings against the former and pitching a complete game against Chicago.
And if Twins fans were initially struggling to come to terms with the idea of Hernandez being their number one, spare a thought for fans in Florida. Many people couldn’t resist smirking when it was announced that Mark Hendrickson would be the Marlins’ opening day starter. Ditched by the Dodgers over the off-season, the former NBA player did little to silence the doubters by conceding six earned runs and taking the loss that day against Johan Santana and the Mets. Yet he rebounded from this inauspicious debut by winning his next four starts (admittedly two coming against the Pirates and one against the Nats, but they all count) and he currently sports a 5-1 record. Hendrickson’s pitching well, the Marlins have got off to their best start in franchise history and reports suggest they are about to sign a six-year/$70m extension with their star shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Anyone who had predicted that sequence of events six weeks ago would have had their sanity questioned.
So it’s true that the unpredictability of pitchers can drive a GM mad, but they shouldn’t bemoan their bad luck too quickly. That unpredictability can also provide a few very welcome surprises.
Week 6 wrap-up
Greg Maddux won his 350th career game last night against the Rockies, but there hasn’t been much else in the way of good news coming out of San Diego. The Padres have sank to the bottom of the NL West, ten games behind the division-leading D-Backs (23-14) who have cooled down recently with a 2-5 record on the week. The Cardinals (23-15) remain at the top of the Central as the Brewers continue to fall, in part due to the ongoing struggles of Eric Gagne. There are no such struggles in Florida. A week after losing their grip on first place in the East, the Marlins (22-14) grabbed it straight back by winning six in a row.
In the American League, the Red Sox (24-15) have a 2.5 game lead over the Rays in the East, while the White Sox and the Twins (both 18-17) share first place in the disappointing Central division. There’s a tie at the top of the West as well between the Angels and the A’s (both 22-16), but the two teams beneath them are heading in different directions. While the Rangers have won five in a row to take them two games below .500, the Mariners are on a dismal run having won only five of their last twenty-one games.
