‘Weekly’ Hit Ground Ball 2008 – Week Twenty

Money talks

CC Sabathia’s stunning form since joining the Brewers has had many people speculating on how much money one team will have to spend to secure his services as a free agent over the upcoming offseason.  While the figures pale in comparison to the bounty coming CC’s way, several teams have been dipping into their pockets this week and parting with substantial sums for potential stars of the future. 

This past Friday was the deadline for most of the players drafted in June to either agree a deal with their team, or wait another year before they can re-enter the amateur player draft.  While some teams quickly came to an agreement with their first round selection(s), most notably the Tampa Bay Rays and the number one pick Tim Beckham, some players left it right to the last minute before signing on the dotted line and a few didn’t sign at all.

The sums on offer reflect the fact that there are only a limited number of top prospects each year.  Pedro Alvarez (draft pick number 2), Eric Hosmer (number 3) and Buster Posey (number 5) each agreed deals worth around the $6m mark with the Pirates, the Royals and the Giants respectively on the deadline day.  Pitcher Aaron Crow and his advisers supposedly wouldn’t budge from their high asking price (some say their starting figure was around $8m-$10m) and therefore he will be pitching in Missouri this year rather than joining the Nationals’ system as a number nine pick.  Time will tell whether Crow made the right move or not.

In most cases, the higher you pick, the more money you are going to have to spend. This has a knock-on effect in regards to deciding which player(s) a team will go for.

The general idea of the drafting order is to allow the worst teams to pick first, affording them an opportunity to obtain the best players to make themselves competitive in the long run.  The trouble is, the worst teams often are those with the least amount of money.  If a player wants a signing bonus you can’t afford, there’s not much point in wasting your first round pick on him; therefore the order in which players are drafted does not necessarily provide an accurate guide as to their sheer ability (accepting that this will be a subjective judgement in any case).  For example, Rick Porcello was the twenty-seventh pick in the 2007 draft and few would argue that there were twenty-six more talented players than him available.  However, he made it clear that it would take a lot of money to make him sign a contract and therefore team after team let him go by.  The Detroit Tigers happily snagged him late on in the first round and agreed a deal worth more than $7m.

Some would say that this is not fair.  Major League Baseball itself clearly sees such scenarios as going against the spirit of the draft, hence the so-called ‘slotting system’ which is supposed to guide teams as to how much they should be paying for players, depending on how high they are drafted.  As explained on MLB.com, these recommendations are regularly ignored and the system is of limited usefulness.  There are no real penalties for exceeding the recommendations; therefore teams won’t think twice about doing so if that allows them to sign a player they really want.

Whether it’s fair or not, no team can be blamed for taking that stance under the current system.  In relation to the Porcello signing, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski stated “there are cases we think are special talents and circumstances where you make a decision that you think is best for our organization. I think our first responsibility is to try to put a winning product on the field. You’re always concerned about your own [team]”.  Few could argue with those sentiments.  The low payroll teams may well like to be able to sign the top young players for below their market value, but the players union won’t agree to that anytime soon and nor should they.

In these revenue sharing times, even the small market teams are not short of a few million dollars to spend.  There will always be another team that can spend more than you, but that doesn’t mean you can’t compete.  It really comes down to how serious the owners are about winning, rather than toddling along as a mediocre team, picking up their revenue sharing money while bemoaning the greater wealth of others.

In recent years, the Rays have approached the task of selecting the overall number one pick with the mindset that they would take the player they considered to be the best available and, within reason, would be prepared to pay the going rate to complete the signing.  This year, they wanted Tim Beckham so they selected him with the number one pick and quickly came to an agreement on a $6.15m deal (about £3.3m).  They’ve endured some miserable Major League seasons while directing money to their farm system, but now they are in the catbird seat with an enviable crop of exciting young talent that looks set to challenge the Red Sox and the Yankees in the AL East for many seasons to come.

Drafting the best young players is an expensive business, but that doesn’t stop the smaller market teams from competing if they are willing to work with the current system and pay the going rate.  And that going rate has just turned several young prospects into millionaires.

Week 20 wrap-up

The Rays (74-48) still lead the Red Sox by 3.5 games in the AL East, with the Yankees having dropped back a bit to 9.5 games out.  The Twins and the White Sox have been swapping places all week and they currently sit level at the top of the Central with identical 69-53 records.  The Angels (76-45) are looking towards October already, leading the Rangers by 15.5 games in the West.  Boston leads the Central pairing by 1.5 games in the wild card race; the Yankees are 6 games behind and will feel they still have a chance at keeping the postseason streak alive.

The Mets (67-56) have won five on the spin to give them a two game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, with the Marlins just a further 1.5 games back.  The Brewers have been on a good run of form lately, but they still haven’t been able to gain ground on the Cubs (75-48) in the Central.  In the West, the D-Backs (64-59) picked up Adam Dunn during the week and, while he has started slowly, his new team has won three in a row to lead the Dodgers by one game.  Milwaukee leads their Central rivals the Cardinals by 2 games for the NL wild card.

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