Sunday’s early MLB games: Pressure on the Braves and Red Sox

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CovHlWEFriday’s results initially appeared to have caused an important shift in the Wild Card races.  The chasing teams slipped up, increasing the cushions enjoyed by the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves.

However, yesterday’s results set us back to where we started, albeit with the games now running out for the chasing pack.

That means the final Sunday of the 2011 regular season is set to be a thrilling evening of live baseball.  All but the second game of the Red Sox-Yankees double-header will be played in daylight in North America.

All times are in BST.

18.05. Minnesota at Cleveland (Hendriks – Carmona)
18.05. Baltimore at Detroit (Matusz – Penny)
18.05. Boston at NY Yankees (Wakefield – Burnett) *ESPN America
18.35. Atlanta at Washington (Minor – Detwiler)
18.35. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Willis – McDonald)
18.40. Toronto at Tampa Bay (Cecil – Davis)
19.05. Colorado at Houston (Millwood – Harrell)
19.10. Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (Mendoza – Floyd)
19.10. Florida at Milwaukee (Nolasco – Narveson)
19.10. Philadelphia at NY Mets (Halladay – Pelfrey)
19.15. Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (Wells – Jackson)
20.05. Seattle at Texas (Furbush – Holland)
20.35. Oakland at LA Angels (Harden – Pineiro)
21.05. LA Dodgers at San Diego (Kershaw – Luebke)
21.10. San Francisco at Arizona (Lincecum – Collmenter) *ESPN America

To say this is a significant day for the Red Sox and their fans is an understatement.  After a heavy loss to the Yankees yesterday, the team goes into a double-header today with the weight of the Red Sox nation on their shoulders. 

A pessimistic Red Sox fan would think today will be the day that the inconsistent A.J. Burnett finds his best stuff and that would be the stuff of nightmares for Boston.  Their own Mr Inconsistent John Lackey is scheduled to pitch the nightcap of this double-header and if they lose the opener, Red Sox fans will not be looking forward to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays need to do their best to take advantage of the Red Sox’s situation by winning their game against the Blue Jays, while the Angels are still mathematically in the AL Wild Card race as well.

In the National League, the Atlanta Braves are playing the Red Sox’s role. The dreaded word ‘choke’ is being used more and more as Atlanta’s previously strong grip on the Wild Card has loosened to them holding on with their fingernails.

The Braves lost 4-1 against the Washington Nationals yesterday, while the St. Louis Cardinals earned a a stunning walk-off win (on a wild pitch) against the Chicago Cubs to leave them just two games behind Atlanta.  A loss for the Braves and a win for the Cards will bring that gap down to one.

The only slight disappointment of the day is that Nat Coombs and Josh Chetwynd will not be presenting any action on BBC 5 Live Sports Extra. The International Twenty20 between England and the West Indies takes precedence in the early evening, although North American sports fans can enjoy coverage of the NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears from approximately 21.30.

Saturday’s early MLB games: Wild Card races

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MlbHlSqIt’s the final Saturday of the 2011 MLB regular season and the early game schedule takes us into the heart and heat of the two remaining playoff place battles.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers all clinched their respective division on Friday, leaving the two Wild Card spots as the only open slots to be decided.

All times are in BST.

18.05. Atlanta at Washington (Beachy – Wang)
18.05. Minnesota at Cleveland (Duensing – Huff)
18.10. Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (Lopez – Lohse)
18.10. Philadelphia at NY Mets (Hamels – Dickey)
21.10. Boston at NY Yankees (Lester – Garcia)
21.10. Seattle at Texas (Hernandez – Ogando)

At this stage of the season, the word that keeps coming to mind is ‘pressure’.  Continue reading →

British Baseball ‘Brief’: a few links

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BBBFollowing all of the great discussion in the comments from last week’s BBB, I thought I would leave this week’s column to one side so that we don’t end up with the thread becoming disjointed.

However there are a few noteworthy bits of news to bring together relating to British baseball and MLB in the UK.

Youth National Baseball Championships

First off, the National Baseball Championships at Herts did not completely mark the end of the British Baseball season. The Youth National Baseball Championships took place over the weekend just gone. Full details can be found on the BBF website.

Great Britain at the 2012 European Championships

Looking ahead to next year, Great Britain will be competing in the European Championships in the Netherlands and further details about the event have been announced this week.

The games will be staged in three cities - Rotterdam, Haarlem and Utrecht – between Friday 7 September and Sunday 16 September.  Team GB are in the same group as the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Czech Republic and Germany, so they will be involved in some very competitive games. 

Sounds like an enjoyable late summer trip to me.

Project COBB research days

While I’m on the subject of trips, new dates for the Project COBB research days were published here yesterday.

They provide a chance to contribute to the ever-growing historical archive for the domestic game, offer an enjoyable day out with like-minded British baseball fans and the perfect excuse to get out of doing the Christmas shopping.

MLB roadshow

The MLB roadshow is heading to the UK over the next two Saturdays.  It will be at Piccadilly Gardens in Manchester on Saturday 24 September and then Trafalgar Square in London Saturday 1 October.  Looks like a lot of fun for kids and adults alike

Moneyball the film

And finally, you may have noticed that the Moneyball film received it’s premiere in Oakland on Monday.

Thanks to the presence of Brad Pitt, the film will be shown over here although I suspect it might not be on a particularly long run. The UK release date is 25 November and it will be interesting to see how much, and what sort of, publicity it generates for the sport.

I’ll be wearing my A’s colours when heading along to the cinema soon after it starts showing.

2011 update: batting dominance, pitching dominance, league health, and league quality

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StatisticsIn early 2009 I published a series of articles offering between-season comparisons of batters, pitchers, league quality, and league health in the British top tier, looking backwards from the 2008 season. Subsequently, I updated this for the 2009 season and for the 2010 season, and here I do the same for the season just gone. Among other things, it will be  interesting to examine the impact that the second straight expansion of the National Baseball League (this time from eight teams to ten) has had on the quality of play and the health of the circuit.

Batting dominance
For the methods, read the full article.
Despite Edwin Alcantara achieving the triple crown, he did not trouble the all-time top 10 of most dominant seasons, and neither did any other hitter in 2011.

Pitching dominance
For the methods, read the full article.
Michael Osborn collected the most wins of any pitcher in the NBL this season (seven) and also posted the most dominant season, based on rate statistics, but, once again, the top 10 was not touched.

League quality
For the methods, as well as a comparison between European leagues, read the full article.
In short, the method gives a score between 20 and 100 for the standard of baseball on the whole in the top tier each year. Since the seasons are compared on a relative scale, the addition of stats for 2011 requires a full update of the results. Data from 2006 and 2007 are not included since the stats for those seasons include a large chunk of games between top-tier and second-tier teams. The updated quality scores out of 100 are ranked as follows: 2003 – 98.3; 2004 – 80.8; 2008 – 77.9; 2005 – 54.2; 2010 – 46.6; 2009 – 39.1; 2011 – 24.3. So the season just gone, according to this assessment, was of the lowest quality since records began in 2003. In part this was down to a lot of errors being made (fielding average dipped below .900 for the first time), but with a walk being issued in almost one in every seven plate appearances, the pitching component of the quality score also took a hit. One important thing to note is that although the score for 2003 was about four times that for 2011, this does not mean that the season was of a four times higher quality. Scores are forced to sit on a scale between 20 and 100 in each category, so small differences can be magnified.

League health
For the methods, read the full article.
League health is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100, where forfeits, blowouts, and generally high run differences in games all subtract from the maximum possible score. These factors are all things likely to put players off staying in the league, and to detract from the interest of any spectators the sport might attract in Britain. Despite Mildenhall folding during the season, with 12 forfeits to their name, the 2011 season scored reasonably well on the league health score, with the 76.3 value putting it ahead of all seasons back to and including 2005. This is because games were generally quite tight, with a good number of 1-run contests and relatively few blowouts. One interested follower of the league health score made the suggestion that I should also calculate the value but without taking any Mildenhall data into account. This pushes the value just over 80, and only 2003 (with a score of 90.3) fared better over the past nine seasons.

Updated schedule for pre-Christmas Project COBB Research Days

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PCRDOwing to the availability of researchers, the start of the Project COBB Research Days series has been postponed until Saturday 3 December, but the proposed Saturday 17 December is still in place, and so there will be two pre-Christmas opportunitites to meet up at Colindale, North London. The main aim will be to add another patch or two to the growing quilt of British baseball history.

With two or three BaseballGB writers going to be among the attendees, the days will also offer a chance to retire to a convivial watering hole in the afternoon to discuss British baseball, MLB, or any other hardball-related topics on your mind. With the winter drawing in, the Hot Stove will be on gas mark 6 by this stage.

Full details of the planned Research Days, and the urgency of getting to Colindale during this off-season, can be found in the original article on BaseballGB.

To sign up for either of these dates, please get in touch by leaving a comment (your email address will come through to me) or using the contact form here.

BaseballGB Fantasy League 2011: Week Twenty Four

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BgbFantasyHeadlineWelcome to our weekly round-up of the BaseballGB Fantasy League competition. This is a mixed Head-2-Head league involving BGB writers and readers.
 
There are fourteen teams who pair up in different combinations each week, making for seven match-ups in any given week. The teams battle over twelve statistical categories, gaining one point for each category they win.

All the points are carried over into the season league table at the end of the weekly match-ups. The top six teams with the most points at the end of the fantasy season will go on to the playoffs during the last three weeks of September.

After 24 weeks of battling, we are now know which teams will be contesting the BaseballGB Fantasy League championship and consolation finals. Read on to find out which teams made it through the semi-finals.
 
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  R HR RBI SB AVG OPS W SV K HLD ERA WHIP Score
BD Yankees 34 8 31 0 0.31 0.93 3 2 46 1 3.9 1.37 6
Weston-Super-Sox 32 13 30 4 0.31 0.92 4 5 47 2 3.9 1.47 6
 
 
After earning week 23 off by finishing top of the standings, the Sox were back in action, defeating the Yankees on a tie break after both teams finished level at 6-6. After compiling a 14-7-3 record against the Yankees in the regular season, Kev’s Sox advanced to the finals. The Sox pitching staff took four categories thanks to two wins from McClellan and the efforts of Holland, as well as four saves from Storen. Braun, Kemp and Carlos Santana provided power and speed.
 
The Yankees had big offensive weeks from Beltran, Castro, Granderson and Cano, while the pitching staff took ERA and WHIP thanks to Cain, Strasburg, Hellickson and Nova. The result is tough on the Yankees, who have had a very impressive season, and can still claim third place in their final matchup of the season.
 
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  R HR RBI SB AVG OPS W SV K HLD ERA WHIP Score
Orpington Isotopes 34 7 24 5 0.33 0.91 4 2 40 1 2.5 1.13 8
The Wright Stuff 22 11 29 2 0.26 0.81 2 0 48 2 4.3 1.41 4
 
 
My Isotopes sprung a surprise, defeating the Stuff 8-4 thanks to a couple of pitching matchups. As both sides looked to gain extra wins and strikeouts, Joe Saunders’ defeat of Aaron Harang and Chris Carpenter getting the better of Cole Hamels on Sunday proved to be the difference in this matchup. Hosmer, Aybar and Pence all had nice weeks with the bat for my Isotopes.
 
The Stuff had power from Phillips, Longoria and Lind, while Hamels made the difference in strikeouts and Gregerson and K-Rod each had a hold.  Continue reading →

BST guide to this week’s early MLB games: The final full week

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CovHlSqIt’s the final full week of the 2011 regular season.

It doesn’t seem long ago that we were getting excited about the season getting underway, but they say time flies when you’re having fun and it’s certainly been an entertaining year once again in MLB.

As teams look to secure playoff spots or just to finish on a positive note, we can enjoy live games during the British evening every day this working week except for Friday.

All times are in BST.

Monday 19 September

18.05. Minnesota at NY Yankees (Diamond – Burnett) *ESPN America
18.05. Baltimore at Boston (Guthrie – Weiland)
21.05. Seattle at Cleveland (Furbush – Huff) *ESPN America

Which A.J. Burnett will turn up on Monday? Will it be the version that struck out eleven hitters in six innings last time out, or the one that conceded seven runs in 1.2 innings when he last faced the Twins on 20 August. Nobody knows, which is maddening for the Yankees but entertaining for the rest of us.

The Red Sox are sending the unheralded Kyle Weiland to the mound in the first game of a double-header as they try to hold off the Rays’ Wild Card charge.

Tuesday 20 September

18.05. Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (Floyd – Carmona)
18.05. Washington at Philadelphia (Detwiler – Kendrick)

The White Sox came into the season expecting to be a contender in the AL Central race. The Indians’ expectations may have been set a little lower initially, but an 18-8 April had them dreaming of a surprise postseason appearance. It has turned out that neither side could keep pace with the Detroit Tigers; however both will be looking to finish the year on a positive note.

In Philadelphia, Kyle Kendrick gets another start as the Phillies will no doubt take advantage of winning their division early by resting a few regulars.

Wednesday 21 September

17.35. Houston at Cincinnati (Rodriguez – Arroyo)
18.05. Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (Shields – TBD)
19.20. Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (Wolf – Garza)
20.10. San Diego at Colorado (Bass – Cook)
20.40. Pittsburgh at Arizona (Locke - Miley)  Continue reading →

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: The playoff run-in

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WHGB11It’s that tough time of year where you log onto MLB.com, go to the standings and see your team’s elimination number has changed from a digit to the dreaded ‘E’.

The Houston Astros were officially eliminated back on 22 August on their way to a 100+ loss season, while it happened to my team, the Oakland A’s, last Sunday.  You know it’s coming, but it’s still a depressing moment; a sudden stab of reality where your hopes for the year have been officially consigned to the toilet.

Fans of 22 teams will go through this emotional process and 18 fan bases are already coming to terms with it (technically it’s 19, but the Braves’ ‘E’ is countered by their NL Wild Card hopes).   The other 12 will see their future decided over the next ten days. 

National League

Fredi Gonzalez does not want a late season collapse in his first year in charge of the Atlanta Braves.  There have been some signs that the team, particularly the young pitching, is wearing down a tad; however they have three games away to Florida (the team that unceremoniously dumped Gonzalez not long ago, don’t forget) followed by three in Washington to steady the ship.  Hopefully for the Braves their season finale at home to the Phillies will simply be a possible NLCS prelude rather than a nervy affair to secure their playoff spot.

As for those Phillies, with their fifth consecutive NL East title already in the bag, they will be getting ready for the postseason (the NL East was never their goal, they expect to get to the World Series) while putting three digits in the win column.  The Phillies have had two 100+ win seasons in their history, earning 101 victories in both 1976 and 1977.  Mind you, they were knocked out in the NLCS in both those years. Best aim for 102 wins just in case there’s something spooky going on there.

The Milwaukee Brewers should ride their 21-7 August into the postseason. After three games at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, they finish up with a six-game homestand against the Marlins and the Pirates (3 games against each).  Those contests at Miller Park are likely to be the last regular season home games Prince Fielder makes in a Brewers uniform, as most expect him to leave as a free agent over the offseason.  Whether another NL Central first baseman is coming to the end with his current team is more up for debate.

The St. Louis Cardinals end the season with three games in Houston, but prior to that they have three home games against the Mets and then three at home to the Cubs.  If Albert Pujols does leave the Redbirds, their bitter rivals from Chicago are one of the teams that have been mentioned as a possible contender for his services.  Those rumours will add an extra subplot to that home series.

In the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks are hoping that their recent losing streak will turn out to be a minor blip.  They are 45-27 at Chase Field this season and end the year with a nine-game homestand.  The middle three games are against the Giants and they could prove to be decisive. 

The Giants have three games at Dodger Stadium before travelling to Chase Field and then finish up the regular season at home against the Rockies.

American League

The Boston Red Sox have not had a great September so far; however the rest of their schedule looks quite favourable.  Seven of their remaining ten games will be against the Baltimore Orioles, against whom they have an 8-3 record so far this season.  Boston’s other three games are the small matter of a series in New York against the Yankees, but by then their rivals could have done them a big favour.

The Tampa Bay Rays now have a four-game series in New York and the Yankees could effectively knock them out of the running, sealing the Red Sox’s Wild Card spot. 

But it might not work out that way. 

If the Rays win that series and the Red Sox slip up against the Orioles, we’d be in a position of Boston having three tough games in New York while the Rays play three games at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, who they are 10-5 against so far this year.  The Rays’ final three games are at home against the Yankees and if the Bronx Bombers have secured their place in the postseason by then (which is likely to be the case in this scenario) then Tampa Bay could be in the driving seat.

There a few ‘ifs’ and ‘coulds’ in there and the stark fact that the Rays will face the Yankees in seven of their last ten games makes it a very tough task for them. 

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels are scheduled to end the season with a three-game set at Angels Stadium.  The question is whether L.A. could turn that into a grandstand finish or if the Rangers would have won the division already by then. 

Texas now has three games in Oakland, who they have absolutely dominated recently, before three at home against Seattle.  The Angels have four games on the road against the Blue Jays and then end with a six-game homestand against the A’s and the Rangers.

The Detroit Tigers have two games in Kansas City and then finish up with a seven-game homestand against the Orioles (4 games) and the Indians (3).  That’s a very favourable run-in, but the Tigers don’t need to rely on that now they have been crowned AL Central champs.

2012 Regular season schedule released already

We haven’t finished this season yet, but the 2012 regular season schedule has already been announced. 

The Florida – soon to be Miami – Marlins’ first game in their new ballpark was always going to be the highlight of the opening schedule, but I didn’t think it would stand out quite so much as it does.  The Marlins will play a single game against the Cardinals on Wednesday 4 April before both teams have Thursday off and then head out onto the road, with the Marlins facing the Reds and the Cardinals facing the Brewers.  That seems a bizarre way to launch a new ballpark.  ‘It’s here at last and, oh, we’re off again’.

Currently the Cardinals-Marlins game is the first scheduled contest of the year, but if that is the thinking behind the odd scheduling then it could be undone by the Mariners and A’s.  Talks are ongoing to move their opening series to Japan, which would make for a great event if Hideki Matsui re-signs with the A’s and therefore leads the team against fellow Japanese hero Ichiro.  When the A’s played two games against the Boston Red Sox back in 2008, they were brought forward to 25-26 March so that the teams could get over the jet lag before getting into the grind of the season.

The schedule is still subject to change – beyond the M’s-A’s series – however it’s unlikely to be altered to any great extent.  That surely means the plans for an extra Wild Card will now not become a reality until 2013 at the earliest.  Even without making a gap for the extra round (which might just be one extra game in each league if it’s a single-game Wild Card showdown), the World Series would already nudge into November if it goes the full seven games.

Sunday’s early MLB games: Aces and playoff contenders

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CovHlWESunday should provide a great evening of baseball, with several important games involving playoff contenders and an array of aces taking to the mound.

I stated yesterday that the Atlanta Braves needed Tim Hudson to lead from the front with a big performance and he undoubtedly delivered.  Atlanta’s ace got the better of a pitching duel with the Mets’ R.A. Dickey, striking out ten over eight scoreless innings as the Braves won 1-0.  With the St. Louis Cardinals losing to the Phillies (a result that crowned the Phillies as NL East champions), the Braves’ Wild Card lead extended to 4.5 games.

As for the AL Wild Card race, the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Red Sox yesterday to reduce Boston’s lead to three games.  Tim Wakefield secured a memorable personal milestone by finally getting his 200th career win last time out, but in the grand scheme of things his start today is much more important.  David Price is having a good year and has matched up well against Boston, so the Rays will go into the game confident that they can close the Wild Card gap down to two games.

All times are in BST.

18.07. NY Yankees at Toronto (Garcia – Morrow) *BBC 5 Live Sports Extra
18.10. Milwaukee at Cincinnati (Greinke – Willis)
18.35. LA Angels at Baltimore (Weaver – Simon)
18.35. Tampa Bay at Boston (Price – Wakefield)
18.35. NY Mets at Atlanta (Gee – Beachy)
18.35. Florida at Washington (Hand – Wang)
19.10. Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (Danks – Chen)
19.10. Cleveland at Minnesota (Masterson – Pavano)
19.20. Houston at Chicago Cubs (Myers – Dempster)
20.10. San Francisco at Colorado (Cain – Rogers)
21.05. Detroit at Oakland (Verlander – Moscoso)
21.05. Arizona at San Diego (Saunders – Harang)
21.10. Texas at Seattle (Harrison – Hernandez) *ESPN America
21.10. Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (Lincoln – Billingsley)  Continue reading →

Saturday’s early MLB games: Rays-Red Sox, Mets-Braves and more

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MlbHlSqTen days or so ago, it looked like the last couple of weeks of the regular season would be relatively inconsequential.

The Detroit Tigers joined the Philadelphia Phillies last night in confirming their playoff spot and the other six teams currently sitting in the postseason places may well be holding them at the end of the season.

However, a few of them are certainly being made to work for it and important games relating to two of those spots will be played during the British evening on Saturday.

All times are in BST.

18.05. Houston at Chicago Cubs (Sosa – Lopez)
18.07. NY Yankees at Toronto (Colon – Alvarez)
18.10. Cleveland at Minnesota (Gomez – Swarzak)
21.05. Detroit at Oakland (Porcello – Gonzalez)
21.10. Tampa Bay at Boston (Niemann – Lester)
21.10. NY Mets at Atlanta (Dickey – Hudson)

The Boston Red Sox earned a crucial win yesterday to give themselves a four-game cushion ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL Wild Card. 

That result puts the pressure firmly back on the Rays today.  It’s not mathematically a ‘must win’ game, but it will feel like that because a win would give them the chance to take the four-game series 3-1 with another victory tomorrow. 

Two wins for the Rays and the gap is down to two.  Two wins for the Red Sox and the gap goes up to six.  Jeff Niemann and Jon Lester will be on the mound at Fenway today hoping to pitch their respective team into a good position.

In the NL East, the Atlanta Braves’ grip on the NL Wild Card has weakened of late.  It looked like the Phillies would take the division with the Braves comfortably taking the Wild Card; however, while the Phillies are on course for their half of that scenario (a win for them today against the Cardinals, or a loss by the Braves, would secure them the NL East crown for the fifth consecutive season), the Braves are going in the wrong direction.

Since a six-game winning streak between 18 and 23 August, the Braves have lost 13 of 21 games including a heavy 12-2 defeat at the hands of the New York Mets last night. 

The Mets would love to ruin the Braves’ season and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will try to baffle their hitters today.  Tim Hudson is Atlanta’s ace and they need him to lead from the front with a big performance in this game.

All of these games are available to watch live via the MLB.TV subscription at MLB.com.  ESPN America is covering college football this evening rather than the baseball.   The full schedule for this weekend’s games can be found on MLB.com.