Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Back for 2018

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With November and December in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to get my weekly MLB column back up-and-running as we start looking ahead to pitchers and catchers reporting to their 2018 Spring Training camps and beyond.

The planned format for ‘Weekly Hit Ground Ball’ in 2018 is to be a round-up column of the key news stories and moments from the week just gone, with a few personal reflections along the way.

It will be published every Sunday morning and, once we get to the regular season, will also pick out a few of the most enticing games to watch on a Sunday evening in Britain – typically the best time of the week for us to catch live baseball.

The Not Hot Stove

The main news, of course, is the lack of news.  The so-called baseball off-season Hot Stove is barely simmering as the free agent market is taking time to develop, which has a knock-on effect on the trade market (and vice versa).

Now that the Christmas break is over, we’re starting to see an increase in rumoured offers to free agents – the interest of the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals in Eric Hosmer being a good example – and the feeling is we’ll start to see the dominoes falling over the next couple of weeks.

Much is being made of next year’s free agent class and the impact it is having on the market this off-season; however, it remains to be seen what effect that will actually have. Whilst there is undoubtedly some outstanding talent waiting in the wings – Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and potentially Clayton Kershaw topping the list – only a small number of teams are going to come out of the 2018/19 off-season with a big prize.

Even though teams will make decisions this year with next year’s market in mind, there is plenty of good talent out there this off-season. We’ll soon start to see teams identifying the right player for them at the right price. Not getting jam today in the hope of better jam tomorrow is smart if it works out, but teams looking to improve will be all too aware of the potential for the Yankees, Dodgers are their ilk to buy up all the best jam next off-season and leave them empty-handed.

Rockies in relief

The Colorado Rockies certainly aren’t waiting around as they have put plenty of money into their bullpen in recent weeks.

They re-signed free agent Jake McGee to a 3-year, $27m contract (approximately £127k per week), gave the same contract to Bryan Shaw (formerly of the Cleveland Indians) essentially to replace the departed Pat Neshek and then signed Wade Davis to a 3-year, $52m contract (approximately £245k per week) to replace Greg Holland (a free agent yet to find another team).

We all know that the performance of relief pitchers can be quite volatile year-to-year so committing this amount of money to three relievers is a risk.  However, the Rockies’ relievers played an important part in the club earning a Wild Card in 2017, so it’s not surprising that they’ve decided to spend money in that area in an attempt to keep that part of the team strong.

Here’s how the Rockies’ bullpen ranked in Fangraphs WAR over the past five seasons, alongside Colorado’s win-loss record:

2017 – 87-74 (2nd NL Wild Card) – Rockies relievers ranked 6th in MLB with a 6.4 WAR
2016 – 75-87, ranked 23rd (3.9)
2015 – 68-94, ranked 22nd (2.0)
2014 – 66-96, ranked 29th (-0.2)
2013 – 74-88,  ranked 10th (4.2).

The 2013 bullpen was pretty good, although not much else on the team was. The relief corps were led by Matt Belisle, Adam Ottavino and Rex Brothers, and looking through their stats reminded me that Roy Oswalt made 3 relief appearances for them that year.

The Rockies had a very positive 2017 despite their major free agent signing from the off-season not working out. Signing Ian Desmond to a 5-year, $70m contract with the intention of him playing first base looked a questionable decision to put it mildly. His progress wasn’t helped by several injuries and that was unfortunate, yet he didn’t play well when he was on the field either.

Desmond’s downturn didn’t scupper the Rockies in 2017, but the same probably won’t be the case in 2018 if their bullpen spending doesn’t produce the goods.  It’s a risk and a package of spending that plenty of writers have questioned, but there’s a bit of me that likes the fact that they’re at least having a go.

Phillies adding too

The Philadelphia Phillies are another team who have made a few dips into the free agent market, signing relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter and then adding former Cleveland Indian Carlos Santana on a three-year, $60m contract (approximately £283k per week).

The Phillies are a great example of how teams can go in cycles in MLB. They’ve been in rebuilding mode in the last five/six seasons after a dominant five-year run at the top of the NL East between 2007 and 2011 during which they made it to the World Series twice (winning in 2008).  They were in the top three or four of all MLB payrolls between 2010 and 2014 before slashing costs and heading into the bottom third of MLB spending over the past couple of years.

Now that their young talent is starting to emerge at the Major League level – Rhys Hoskins especially catching the eye last season – the Phillies are being linked with making a big move among the elite free agent talent in the next off-season.

However, there’s value in the Phillies adding some talent around their youngsters this year too and getting back into play-off contention in stages, rather than trying to make a big jump.  Money talks loudest, but a good jump forward in 2018 (maybe to 78/80 wins or so) may also help to convince a big free agent that the Phillies are heading in the right direction and that the new signing will not have to turn them around on his own.

More Marlins misery

The latest instalment in the Miami Marlins saga was revealed by the Miami Herald this week after they got hold of documents that Derek Jeter and his fellow Marlins’ owners sent around to potential investors.

Among other dispiriting revelations was the detail of Project Wolverine as it was called that set out the ownership’s hopes for boosting revenue whilst significantly cutting the MLB payroll and therefore promising investors a healthy return on their investment.

It just adds even more salt to the wounds for Marlins fans that the pain of seeing Stanton, Ozuna and Gordon traded away (with more likely also heading out of the door) and knowing that they will be sitting through more years of poor baseball from their team will all go to help line the pockets of rich investors.

It’s hard to imagine a fanbase being treated more poorly than what those that follow the Marlins have had to endure in recent years.

More writers joining The Athletic

The subscription-based sports-writing site The Athletic is continuing to add impressive names to their baseball coverage.  Most notable for me has been the full-time appointment this week of Melissa Lockard who for years has provided outstanding coverage of Oakland A’s prospects at Oakland Clubhouse.  She’s the new staff writer/editor of the San Francisco section of The Athletic.

If you’re a fan of multiple North American sports then a subscription for The Athletic is quickly becoming close to a must-have.  I only really follow baseball so, as with the ESPN Inside subscription over the years, in that situation it’s a bit more of a decision as to how much value you get when a considerable amount of coverage relates to sports you may not be greatly interested in.  However, the increasing amount and high quality of baseball coverage they offer has tempted me in, so I’ll update in a month or so as to value for money when it comes to pure baseball fans.

First impression is that the website easily allows you to select what sports/teams you’re interested in seeing stories about, so if baseball is your focus you can just choose to display those (and then amend/update it as you like from then on).

Books on the way

We’re also at the time of year when pre-season book purchases are being considered.  The two main titles I buy are the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster.  The usual UK book outlets have 15 January as the release date for the Forecaster and 9 February for BP.  I’m counting down the days, but you can find that the dates are pushed back a bit when it comes to UK online shops having them in stock.

It’s also worth noting that the price of Kindle versions of baseball books (probably US books more generally) can change quite significantly.  For example, when the Bill James Handbook 2018 was released the Kindle version initially was almost the same price as the paperback version (approximately £18), but a few weeks on the price was revised down to approximately £12. If you’re going the Kindle route – I’ve found over the years I tend to prefer getting paperback versions of stat-based books – you can often end up saving £5 or so just by waiting a bit before Amazon.co.uk adjusts the price.

Thank You for the A’s: Looking forward to 2018

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Whilst heading back to work after the Christmas break isn’t so much fun for many, moving into a new year at least brings the next MLB season that little bit closer.

Although we’re still the best part of three months away from the regular season starting, it won’t be too long before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Realistic expectations

What should we expect from the Oakland A’s in 2018?  It’s difficult to say and that’s part of what makes this season an interesting one for A’s fans.

We have to start by acknowledging the presence of the reigning World Series champions, the Houston Astros, in the AL West and the likelihood that, even with a World Series hangover, they’re still going to be a strong club.

Then we have the team that has ‘won the off-season’ so far in the LA Angels. We’ve seen plenty of examples over the years of teams that make a lot of moves over an off-season that vaults them up the prediction lists, only for things to not quite come together. Naturally I hope that goes for the Angels in 2018 because on paper it looks like they’ve done a great job of improving their team in several different areas.

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are more of an unknown quantity.

Seattle looked like a team that might push forward in 2017 and finally end their play-off appearance drought, but that didn’t materialise.  Dee Gordon should be a good pick-up for them, albeit having to factor in how he’ll take to centre field, and it will be interesting to see if Ryon Healy can develop for the Mariners having moved from the A’s, yet all things considered the Mariners don’t obviously look significantly improved from the 2017, yet at least.

As for the Rangers, they’ve added some useful arms to their rotation in Matt Moore, Mike Minor and Doug Fister and it’s expected they’ll try to add another too, possibly reuniting with Yu Darvish. Like the M’s, you wouldn’t say they’re significantly better on paper, but at the same time they don’t look worse either.

Which brings us to the A’s and a team that has finished last in the AL West in each of the past three seasons after an enjoyable run of three consecutive play-off appearances.

The 75-87 win-loss record in 2017 was an improvement on 2015-2016 and it came with Matt Olson and Matt Chapman really impressing in their rookie seasons.  We got a glimpse of top prospect Franklin Barreto too and you can genuinely see the makings of a contender-worthy infield with that group.

The pitching didn’t really come along as hoped despite some good showings here and there, Sean Manaea being the pick of the bunch. I’m not sure we’re any the wiser as to quite what Kendall Graveman, Andrew Triggs, Jesse Hahn, Jharel Cotton and others will become and watching how they develop – or not – will be a key part of the 2018 season.

What we do now have is an encouraging farm system (John Sickels’ recent review of the A’s Top 20 prospects being a good indicator) and, with the likes of Olson and Chapman already making a mark, that’s something to hold on to.

The trade for Stephen Piscotty looks like a positive move as, away from the heart-warming personal aspect, he’s a much-needed right-handed outfielder who offers quite a bit of potential that includes being an affordable part of the team for years to come.  Although his dip in performance in 2017 reduced his stock somewhat, he’s young enough that this could have just been a bump in the road and I’m optimistic that Piscotty could prove to a productive and popular addition.

Put it all together and you’d still peg getting out of the AL West cellar and pushing towards a winning record as a realistic season that we could call a success.  The Astros and Angels look like being the top two in the AL West and when you consider the quality of the Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox (the latter surely will add a significant player or two in the coming weeks), the A’s will be far from the only team that sees a play-off spot as a tall order.

That doesn’t mean we can’t have an enjoyable season though, especially given the emerging young talent on the roster and in the Minors.

 

Key A’s dates

Let’s look ahead to when the games start up again. Don’t forget to join in the fun by following along on the Oakland A’s UK Twitter account.

Friday 23rd February

The A’s Cactus League Spring Training starts at home against the LA Angels on Friday 23rd February. First pitch is scheduled for 20.05 GMT so it’s a perfect chance to catch some A’s baseball right from the off.

Pretty much all Spring Training games are covered at least on radio so can be listened to with an MLB.TV/At Bat subscription (details of 2018’s offering should be published by MLB.com in early February), with a more limited number of games being televised and therefore available to watch via MLB.TV. We’ll have to wait and see nearer the time as to whether there will be TV coverage, but even so there’s nothing more relaxing than listening to a radio broadcast from a Spring Training game and they’re a great way to keep on top of all of the news from Spring Training camp too.

The usual A’s broadcast crew should be on hand and it’s always great to hear from the team again who will take us through the season ahead. In 2017 we also had A’s radio’s Vince Cotroneo’s son Dominic providing play-by-play for some Spring Training games, which made for a fun dynamic when father and son joined up.  Hopefully we’ll get more of the same this year.

Sunday 25th March

The traditional pre-season series against the San Francisco Giants takes place over 25-27 March with the first game being a 21.05 BST first pitch from the Coliseum on the Sunday.  The other two games take place at AT&T Park and are night games, so less convenient for us to follow live, but it’s good that at least one of the games from that series will be UK-friendly.

Thursday 29th March

The A’s regular season opener is a 21.05 BST home game against the LA Angels, possibly including Shohei Ohtani’s Major League debut for the Halos depending on how they set up their starting rotation.

It’s an earlier than usual start to the MLB regular season and they’ve made a welcome change for 2018 by having every team start on the same day, with many playing day-games. That will create a feast of baseball for us to enjoy during the British evening on the Thursday and it lines up perfectly with the Easter bank holiday (Good Friday being the following day) so that you really couldn’t wish for a better start to the baseball season.

Having an early start for the A’s opener will make a welcome change as it’s the first time since 2007 that the A’s have started the regular season with a day-game (although the two games from Japan against Seattle in 2012, and two against Boston in 2008, were day-games for us, but night-games locally).

MLB in 2017

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It’s the final day of 2017, so it’s a good time to reflect on some of the key points from MLB in 2017, plus my one major moan from the year and some hopes for the future.

Fall Classic

For the second consecutive year we were treated to a seven-game classic of a World Series, with the Houston Astros ultimately claiming their first title at the expense of the LA Dodgers.  Both teams had spells during the regular season where they looked almost unbeatable, as did the Cleveland Indians who put together a 22-game winning streak on their way to another impressive season.

Surprise contenders

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies were somewhat surprising NL Wild Card winners – the D-Backs had gone 69-93 in an enormously disappointing 2016 the season before, whilst the Rockies last made the play-offs in 2009 – with the Milwaukee Brewers also having a surprisingly competitive season in the senior circuit.

In the American League, everyone kept waiting for the Minnesota Twins’ bubble to burst but they held on to claim the second Wild Card and even though their play-offs amounted to an 8-4 loss to the Yankees simply making the post-season was a turn-up and another example that the two Wild Card set-up gives more teams a chance to compete.

Award-winning talent

The American League MVP award perfectly highlighted that baseball is a game for everyone, with the diminutive Jose Altuve beating out the hulking Aaron Judge. Both had great seasons and either would have been a worthy winner, but there was something refreshing in the 5ft 6inches Altuve showing size doesn’t always matter.  Judge may well have an MVP or two in his future anyway, although the first person he may need to beat is his new teammate: reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton.

Judge had to content himself with the AL Rookie of the Year award, joining the LA Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger as rookie hitters playing for big market teams and making a big name for themselves in their debut seasons.

Long-balls and long games

Judge and Bellinger helped to make 2017 the year of the long-ball.  The 6,105 home runs amounted to the most ever hit in a single season, beating the previous mark of 5,963 of 2000.  The latter came in the middle of the so-called steroid era where home run totals have come to be seen to be inflated by the use of drugs, so conspiracy theories abound as to whether it’s now the ball that has been juiced.

What we do know is that MLB’s efforts to improve the pace of play are not going well, with the average game time going up once again to a record of just over 3 hours 5 minutes.  The World Series showed that classic games can come in different forms and a long game doesn’t necessarily make for a dull one – quite the opposite in some cases – but is is apparent that pitchers and hitters are not paying much attention to the directives from the MLB Commissioner’s Office to get on with things.  Expect pitch clocks and more heavy-handed regulation of batters staying in the batter’s box to come soon.

World Baseball Classic

The biggest disappointment of 2017 came in what should have been one of the highlights of the year.

The WBC has been an excellent addition to the baseball landscape in creating an international tournament every four years that includes MLB players and exciting talent from other leagues (most notably Japan, Korea and Cuba). There are arguments for and against its timing, but what can’t be argued is that it adds competitive and enjoyable games at a point when the initial appeal of Spring Training exhibition games wares off.

However, for baseball fans in Britain and many other countries the tournament may as well have not happened.

Whereas in previous years there was a multi-platform approach to the rights that allowed for a WBC online subscription package, in 2017 MLB went down the route of selling exclusive broadcasting rights to individual countries.  The result was that in many countries the rights-holder was only interested in showing a small number of games and there was no way for fans to watch virtually all of the tournament.

In our case, BT Sport got the rights and decided to only show the semi-finals and finals. That was a shame but it’s fair enough for BT Sport to balance out the other rights they have in March and better to have some TV coverage than none at all.  The issue was that we couldn’t watch any of the other games, despite the fact that BT Sport was not broadcasting them.

Why on earth that was a desirable outcome for MLB is a complete mystery.  The revenue generated from the rights likely were peanuts in the general scheme of things.  The WBC is designed to be a perfect way to ‘sell’ baseball as it shows the game off in a short tournament format with all of the passion and drama that international competition provides.

Pursuing a rights model that deliberately prevented huge numbers of baseball fans outside the States from watching the tournament was ridiculously counter-productive.  We can only hope that they learn a lesson from it and change things up for 2021.

International games and special events

Where MLB ballsed-up with the WBC, they did at least give back by including a range of international games in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement for the next five years, with those scheduled for London naturally capturing the most attention in these parts.

There are two important aspects to this. The first is the obvious one that taking games to countries such as the UK provides a great way to promote the sport, building on what support there is for the sport there already. We saw that with the Hyde Park Home Run event this year and the range of new UK-based blogs, podcasts and social media accounts that have developed since that point.

The second is the benefit this can bring in creating more ‘events’ during the MLB season.

I’ve regularly had comments from Brits over the years that show the daily marathon that is the MLB regular season can be quite intimidating for a newcomer.  The NFL is a very different sport, of course, but part of its ability to attract new fans is that there are a relatively small number of games and they have a lot of build-up around them, so that they feel like events.

In MLB, it’s a load of games today, followed by another 15 tomorrow, followed by another 15 etc.  That’s part of why us converts love the baseball season, but other than the All-Star game (useful, but limited as an exhibition) and the World Series (I couldn’t count the amount of people over the years I’ve seen get into baseball due to the World Series, only to see the initial enthusiasm lost in the five months before MLB action starts up again) there isn’t anything ‘special’ to give a newcomer a reason to jump on board at any point.

The MLB Little League Classic this year between the St Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t have a specific international flavour, but it was a good example of something that I feel MLB needs to do much more of.  There is plenty of scope, especially in May, June and August, to have a series that has something different about it in terms of where the game is played.  Build it up as an event, make it seem like something a bit special within the regular season, and give people a reason to tune in.

In the UK

It’s been great to see more Twitter accounts and blogs popping up this year bringing UK baseball fans together. The question really is how these can be developed, as the way in which social media can bring like-minded people together can also be a bit misleading in terms of how many people are involved (i.e. we all end up following each other!).

The reality is baseball had a much larger fanbase in the UK 10-15 years ago than it does today simply because of the number of people that watched it on Channel 5.  My article confirming the news that Baseball on 5 was coming to an end in March 2009 received over 200 comments long before the days when you could promote posts on Twitter and the like.

Free-to-air coverage, even in the early hours of the morning, makes a huge difference to the reach that a sport can have even in these days where you can watch some games for free online.  The latter requires you to have an interest in baseball and make a point to go looking for it.  Free-to-air coverage allowed thousands of people to stumble across the sport who otherwise wouldn’t have done so.

A full-time return to free-to-air coverage looks unlikely, but that doesn’t mean we should be pessimistic.  The scheduled MLB games in 2019 and 2020 would hopefully get free-to-air coverage in the UK and that would be a good start.

My one realistic – but probably still overly optimistic – hope would be for BT Sport to go beyond their current coverage (which should not be taken for granted) and have one game a week when there was a UK-based studio element to it.  This would be similar to what happens with the NFL on Sky and would provide a way to help newcomers get into the sport whilst also be a focal point for the British baseball community.  I’ve heard no rumours to suggest such a venture is on the cards, sadly, but we can but hope.

 

British Baseball 2017 Review

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As Christmas starts to approach, thoughts turn reflective on the year that’s been.

Whilst the hardy souls in University baseball and softball are still braving the elements, for most of the other teams the season has long since been over and plans for indoor winter training are being put in place.

The 2018 season is already in mind, but we shouldn’t let all that happened this year pass by without comment.  Here’s a round-up of the key developments from the British domestic leagues in 2017.

National Baseball League – London Mets win fourth national title

The London Mets and Southampton Mustangs contested the top-tier National Baseball Championships final for the third consecutive year.  The Mets prevailed by wining the best-of-three series 2-0, the first game being an amazing comeback from 14-6 behind to win 15-14 and the second game a 6-0 triumph.

The London Mets’ performances in recent years speak for themselves. Over the past five regular seasons, the Mets have a combined 103-24 win-loss record, good for an .811 winning percentage. They’ve contested the last four NBC’s, winning two of them (2017 and 2015), and have now put themselves on the brink of history.

London now have four national championships to their name, including their back-to-back titles in 2007 and 2008.  This puts the Mets in exclusive company as being one of only five teams to have four top-tier championships, the others being the Cobham Yankees (1983, 1986, 1987, 1988), Hull Aces (1963, 1965, 1968, 1972) Liverpool Tigers (1948, 1962, 1971, 1975) and the London Warriors (1981, 1982, 1997, 2000).

They will enter the 2018 season not simply with the aim of retaining their title, but becoming the first club in British baseball history to win five sanctioned amateur national championships.

Azcuy and Collins

Although the Southampton Mustangs had a tough end to the season, they can be proud of two of their players furthering their account in the record books.

Maikel Azcuy (5) trailed the Mets’ Carlos Dominguez (8) in the season home run totals, but he increased his lead as the all-time leader in NBL home runs.  Azcuy now has 45 long-balls to his name, 10 ahead of the second-placed Simon Pole.

Former Bracknell Blazers stand-out pitcher Henry Collins returned to NBL action for the first time since 2014 (2013 in a full-time capacity) with the Mustangs and he led the league with 7 pitching wins.  That increases his career tally to 39, pushing him up into third place.

Collins trails Michael Osborne (45 wins over 17 seasons between 1998-2015 with the London Warriors, Richmond Flames and Herts Falcons) and the all-time leader Alan Smith (59 wins over 17 seasons between 1985-2007 with the London Warriors, Cobham Yankees, Sutton Braves, London Athletics and London Mets – noting that the total doesn’t include wins collected in independent league competition).

European competition

The Mets and the Mustangs once again represented British baseball in Europe, with both teams competing in the CEB Federations Cup Qualifiers.

The two teams had similar experiences, finishing their respective pools with 2-2 records and narrowly missing out on making their pool finals.

The London Mets’ Pool 3 in Stockholm, Sweden, was won by Spain’s Sant Boi, whilst Southampton Mustangs Pool 2 in Belgrade, Seriba was won by Austria’s Diving Ducks W.Neustadt.

Key BBF reports

SOUTHAMPTON SURVIVES THE NBL PLAYOFFS TO FACE THE METS FOR THE NATIONAL TITLE

LONDON METS WIN WALK-OFF THRILLER TO GRAB GAME ONE IN THE NBL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

LONDON METS REGAIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WITH A SECOND STRAIGHT WIN OVER SOUTHAMPTON

AAA – Richmond Retain

The Richmond Knights followed up on their 2016 AAA championship by retaining their title in 2017.

The Knights started their regular season with twelve consecutive wins before a 10-9 loss to Taunton on 11 June.  The London Mammoths were the only other team able to inflict a defeat on Richmond (13-5 on 2 July), meaning the reigning champions headed into the play-offs on the back of a 22-2 regular season campaign.

Once there, the Knights won their quarter-final against the London Meteorites 11-7 and then beat Northern representatives Cartmel Valley Lions 11-2 in the semi-final to set up a championship decider against the unbeaten Birmingham Bandits, playing-up in the play-offs from the AA-Central division.

It looked like Birmingham were going to live up to their nickname and end the Knights’ hold on the AAA crown as they took a 10-2 lead in the bottom of the sixth inning, only for Richmond to mount an epic comeback that included an eight-run top of the ninth inning to win 15-10.

Having won back-to-back AAA titles, the question over the off-season will be whether Richmond will make the step up to the NBL in 2018?  Richmond, as the Flames, have won the top-tier national championship twice (2006 and 2010) and last competed in the premier class in 2011.  Based on their performances over the past two seasons, a return to the NBL would be well deserved.

AA – Third national title for Leicester

The story of the AA season has to begin with the Birmingham Bandits.  They put together an unbeaten 22-0 regular season campaign to win the AA-Central division and earn the right to compete in the Triple-A play-offs, only for Richmond to end their season for the second straight year in heart-breaking fashion.

Birmingham previously competed in the AAA-Central division before this became the AA-Central in 2016.  Geography inevitably plays a part in the way the amateur British leagues are constructed, but James Moran’s team has shown that they are certainly a AAA calibre group, regardless of what level their regular season division may be called next year.

With the Bandits out of the AA play-off picture, the Leicester Blue Sox took on the challenge of representing the AA-Central in that level’s post-season and they did so with distinction by capturing the national championship.

Leicester made short work of the AA-South Latin Boys, who won their AA-South Pool A with an 18-3 regular season, in the semi-final with a 17-3 seven-inning victory. That set up a final against Tonbridge, the Pool B winners with a 17-4 regular season, who earned their appearance in the final with a 10-5 win over Sidewinders.  Leicester’s Rikson Martina was the hero for the Blue Sox on the mound and in the batter’s box, as the Blue Sox prevailed 9-4.

It was the first time Leicester had won the AA crown and the third national championship in the club’s history, following two Single-A titles in 2009 and 2012.

A – The Perfect First Season for Norwich

Whilst the other 2017 national champions added titles to their previous triumphs, the Single-A victors captured their first trophy at their first attempt.

Norwich Iceni produced a perfect season in their BBF league debut.  They won the Single-A regular season with a 14-0 record to put their unbeaten run on the line in the play-offs.

If they felt any pressure of completing the job, they didn’t show it.  They made it 15 out of 15 with a semi-final victory over Cambridge Monarchs by a score of 11-4 (called after 4.5 innings due to bad light at the end of a long day of play at Farnham Park) and then made it the sweetest of sixteens by defeating Guildford Millers 16-12 in the final.

You simply couldn’t do better than what Norwich achieved in their first year and Mike Smith’s team will no doubt be eyeing up a potential new challenge in 2018 at a higher level of competition.

The same may also apply to beaten finalists Guildford Millers.  The Millers pushed Iceni all the way in the final, as they did throughout the year.  Guildford went 12-2 during the regular season, losing their second and third games (against Norwich and Forest Glade Redbacks) before reeling off 11 straight wins to finish second in the division.  They edged a close extra-innings semi-final with Northants Centurians 16-13 (10 innings) to end up with a 13-3 record combining the regular season and play-offs.

Key BBF reports

FINALISTS SETS FOR SINGLE-A, DOUBLE-A AND TRIPLE-A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

RICHMOND, LEICESTER AND NORWICH CAPTURE NATIONAL BASEBALL CHAMPIONSHIP TITLES

Looking across the BBF leagues

Whilst the trend in MLB has been an increase in run-scoring of late, the opposite happened in British baseball in 2017.

The two situations are very different, of course, and what we saw in 2017 was perhaps a welcome adjustment in the leagues that meant a more level playing field – with some exceptions, as always – across teams within each league.

As is expected, Single-A was by far the highest run-scoring environment when looking at average runs scored per game.

1. London Musketeers (A) 20
2. Guildford Millers (A) 19.7
=3. Herts Raptors (A) 17.6
=3. Essex Archers (A) 17.6
5. Norwich Iceni (A) 16.9
6. Kent Mariners (A) 15.8
7. Cambridge Monarchs (A) 15.7
8. Herts Hawks (AA-SA) 15
9. Forest Glade Redbacks (A) 14.5
10. Cambridge Royals (A) 14.1

Nine of the top ten teams were from that level of play, with London Musketeers taking top honours by averaging 20 runs scored per game.  Double-A Herts Hawks deserve a mention for being the only non-Single-A team in the top ten, sitting in eighth with 15 runs scored per game.

Keeping runs off the board is always important, but it’s especially significant at amateur levels where extra runs can often be gained through errors and relative freedom on the basepads. Looking at average runs allowed per game:

1. Birmingham Bandits (AA-C) 2.5
2. London Mets (NBL) 3.7
3. Richmond Knights (AAA) 3.9
4. Southampton Mustangs (NBL) 4.3
5. Norwich Iceni (A) 5.1

It’s no surprise that four of the top five teams in the average runs-against stakes won their division, with the NBL’s Southampton Mustangs also getting in on the act.  Southampton also had the biggest run difference of any team in the BBF regular season, scoring 200 more runs than they allowed across their 30 games.

Birmingham were the stingiest pitching and fielding outfit, allowing an average of only 2.5 runs per game.  You could reasonably peg Norwich Iceni right there alongside the Bandits based on comparing their runs-allowed with the average from their division. Norwich’s 5.1 runs allowed per game mark was 36% of the average from Single-A (14.3), exactly as Birmingham’s 2.5 runs allowed was 36% of the average 7 runs allowed per game in AA-Central.

We can also get a basic idea of the inter-league competitions by comparing the best and worst run differentials (the difference between the runs scored by a team and the runs they allowed).

On that basis, the AAA division was the closest, with the NBL seeing the biggest gap. In the latter case, that involves comparing the Southampton Mustangs’ +200 mark with the Brighton Jets’ -186; however, what plays into that is the Jets being handed a series of 9-0 and 7-0 defeats due to forfeitting games.

Elsewhere – Titles for Bristol Badgers, Liverpool Trojans and Glasgow Galaxy

The Bristol Badgers won the first ever SWBL Championship game over South Conference winners Exeter Sptifires 9-3 to take the SWBL title.

The club announced in November that the Badgers will join the BBF Double-A league in 2018, with the Bristol Bats ensuring the club will retain a presence in the SWBL.

Liverpool Trojans took the Northern AAA championship for the second straight year with an emphatic 19-0 victory over Hull Scorpions.

Glasgow Galaxy finished top of the Scottish Baseball League with an 11-1 record, their only loss coming at the hands of Edinburgh Cannons in their third game of the season.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year (for those who get good presents)

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It’s the time of year when usual greetings are followed by variations on the same question: ‘have you got all your Christmas shopping done yet?.

Presents are on the mind right now, whether ones you are buying for others or ones you hope to receive.

Fans of the LA Angels and New York Yankees must feel like Christmas has come early this week after they both received the best type of present, a surprise one.

Oh, Shohei Ohtani

(Which is what Angels fans should be singing, to the tune of Seven Nation Army, if they have any sense whatsoever)

Ohtani choosing the Angels was a surprise, but not so much based on his destination and more that, as became apparent as the process played out, this was a completely unique situation.  There were plenty of rumours and second-guessing, yet the decision was a personal choice for Ohtani and no one outside his close confidants really knew what would sway him.

The tough part of Christmas is not receiving a present you hoped for and several teams are feeling that more than most with Ohtani.  The San Diego Padres briefly became the rumoured frontrunner and Padres fans haven’t had much going their way of late.  The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers also looked favourites at one time or another and have the added pain of seeing up-close what they have missed out on in the AL West over the seasons ahead.

“Stanton …

(… deliver, your fastball or your life”. Not sure if the Adam and the Ants 80’s classic is quite so well known in New York to be the basis of a chant, though)

The first team to be publicly shunned by Ohtani was the New York Yankees, a slight that prompted two typical responses.  Firstly, the New York press buried him for ‘not having the guts’ to play in New York.  Then the Yankees went and traded for Giancarlo Stanton instead.

Much as with Ohtani, Stanton’s choice – a product of his wisely negotiated no-trade clause – came at the cost of other teams who thought he would be wearing their uniform instead.  For all the progress they made with the Marlins, it never quite felt like the St Louis Cardinals would end up with Stanton, yet the Giants appeared to have a decent chance.  Both will need to turn their attention elsewhere now that Stanton is heading to the Bronx to team up with Aaron Judge in a two-man wrecking crew to strike fear in every opposing pitcher’s heart.

Meanwhile, new Yankee manager Aaron Boone must be expecting to get a stocking full of coal this Christmas to even things out.

Enjoying the presents

The Yankees now have some work to do in terms of roster decisions and potentially trading another regular to accommodate Stanton’s pay whilst meeting their target of staying below the $197m luxury tax threshold.  The whole point for the Yankees though is that they can happily find solutions to those ‘problems’ when it allows them to acquire such an outstanding proven talent as Stanton.

The deal has created plenty of funny tales of ‘Agent Jeter’ helping out the Yankees.  Many are coming from annoyed Boston Red Sox fans who are stoking the ‘Evil Empire’ fires once again.

In any case, what Jeter and his colleagues have done here makes complete sense given the situation they are in.  It was madness – well, more accurately short-term egotistical idiocy by former owner Jeffrey Loria – for the Marlins to give one player, however great, such a vast contract and they had little choice but to trade Stanton despite having a relatively weak negotiating position.

It creates yet more significant sympathy for long-suffering Marlins, but none whatsoever for Jeter and his ownership colleagues.  As the NY Post story linked to above notes, the Marlins are $400m in debt and losing money fielding an uncompetitive team, so major work is needed.  That’s a difficult position to be in, however, those were the same facts on the table when they agreed to pay $1.2bn for the team. It doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in the new regime being shrewd negotiators, does it?

Mike Trout’s new best friend

(Other than his wife, that is)

As for the Angels, Ohtani’s decision to join them is a huge coup and one that will help them to respond to the justified accusation that they are failing to capitalise on having one of the best players the game has seen in many years.

Mike Trout has played in six-and-a-bit seasons so far and in only one of those, 2014, has the team reached the play-offs, which simply resulted in an ignominious 3-0 ALDS sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals. There is a good core of players there alongside Trout in Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Garrett Richards and others.  Adding Ohtani to it doesn’t obviously put them ahead of the Houston Astros in the AL West, but it definitely increases their Wild Card prospects.

The most exciting part of Ohtani’s arrival is how he and the Angels plan to help him become a two-way player and to get regular at-bats.  Losing the DH on his pitching days is the obvious starting point, but it seems like they will also be giving him DH opportunities on non-pitching days too (playing him in the field isn’t likely in his debut year, based on initial reports).

The reports suggest Ohtani is a legitimate hitting talent, not just a pitcher who can run into one every now and then, but he’s no different to any other hitting talent in needing regular at-bats and time to develop his craft in the Major Leagues.  Whether he will have the opportunity to do that over the next couple of years – for example, a few dodgy pitching performances in a row will quickly start comments on him being better off focusing on his pitching – will probably determine how well it goes.

Regardless, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how he gets on and if he does just end up as a home-run threat on days he pitches then that’s still going to be fun.

Unless it’s against your team, of course.  With my A’s hat on I naturally hope Ohtani doesn’t turn out as well as planned, just as I’d be more than happy if Judge-Stanton becomes a dud duo rather than a dynamic one when our pitching staff is facing them.

Such petty bias outstanding, the arrival of Ohtani to MLB and Stanton joining the Yankees are undoubtedly incredibly exciting developments that only add to the anticipation of the MLB season starting up again in the new year.

Whatever presents you do or don’t get this Christmas, the 2018 MLB season is sure to be a present well worth waiting for.

A Boone for the Yankees

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There’s a great article on ESPN by Tim Kurkjian all about his former colleague Aaron Boone becoming the New York Yankees’ manager (still to be confirmed, but that’s all that is left to do).

Kurkjian always strikes me as someone who would see the good in anyone, and clearly he has a lot of affection for Boone, but the traits he describes – excellent communicator, incredible eye for detail, huge baseball knowledge – all help to explain why the Yankees have decided to make him their new skipper.

Two years ago I wrote about Dave Roberts being appointed as the LA Dodgers’ manager despite him having no managerial experience. Many positive things were being written and said about Roberts, as with Boone, but I was unsure as to whether a team in the Dodgers’ position were taking an unneccesary risk in going for a managerial novice:

“Roberts may prove to be an inspired appointment, and I’ll wish him the best of luck, but there’s reason to question whether pairing a man who has never been a manager before with a team built to win a World Series is the wisest decision.”

The Dodgers have won the NL West in both seasons since (with a combined 195-130 win-loss record), making it to Game Six of the NLCS in 2016 and Game Seven of the World Series this year, so it’s fair to say the appointment has worked out well.

It does make me think about the role a manager plays in MLB. Whilst they may be asked for their opinion, rostering decisions are taken by the Front Office and the manager generally leaves the coaching to the rest of his staff.  The role is primarily about in-game strategy and leading a group of players through a long season, whilst being the public face of the organisation.

The last two parts are why communication skills and personality are such an important part of the job.

This has been an area that Girardi has faced some criticism in recently, yet it shouldn’t be forgotten that he moved into the manager’s job in 2008 after spending 2007 working for the YES Network.  Girardi started working for YES in 2004 after ending his playing career before serving as Joe Torre’s bench coach in the Bronx in 2005 and then managing the Marlins in 2006, winning the NL Manager of the Year award and being sacked for his troubles (as was the way under previous owner Jeffrey Loria).

It’s easy to look at the Yankees appointing someone out of an ESPN studio, rather than a Minor League dugout, and question it, but the skills required to do that broadcasting analyst job well (and I’ve always thought Boone was excellent on ESPN’s coverage) actually translate perfectly to being an MLB manager.

You can include in that the characteristic of being a ex-Big Leaguer, something that broadcasters love (sometimes overriding the person not being very good at the analyst role) and something that – fairly or not – always seems to give them credibilty over an otherwise strongly-qualified career Minor Leaguer.

Although we all love to second-guess managerial strategy, in all honesty a fair amount of the decisions made over the course of the season are quite standard.  Hopefully there is still a place for an outstanding managerial tactician to give his team an edge in MLB, yet managers have so much support (in staff and stats) to make decisions nowadays that it’s possible this doesn’t carry quite the advantage it may have done in the past. The outcome, regardless of the logic behind the decision, will always dominate the narrative anyway.  If you make the right call on removing a pitcher and you get beat, you still wear the loss as the manager.

Boone has been around baseball all his life and certainly comes across as the type of person who is always learning, rather than someone set in his ways.  So there’s good reason to think Boone will have the strategic side of the job covered regardless of his lack of managerial experience.

It’s a huge opportunity for Boone, taking on a very talented Yankees team that looks well set to get even better in the years ahead.  Kukjian’s article shows that he will go into the role with a lot of goodwill, but Boone will know all too well that this will not shield him for long if the results aren’t as expected. That will not bother Boone, in fact the high stakes are likely something he will relish as the rewards if it goes well will be great.

Appointing a manager out of an announcer’s booth is not a left-field choice in MLB.  With Boone’s skills and a highly-talented roster at his disposal, the Yankees may well have made a winning appointment.

MLB 2017 Early Game Review

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We’re a month on from the climax of the World Series, making it a month since we got to enjoy watching some live MLB games.

That makes it a good time to look back at the 2017 regular season from a British perspective and to review how we were able to follow games live at a convenient time.

My Monday previews every week during the regular season highlight all of the games that are scheduled to begin before midnight UK time during the working week (Monday to Friday).  I class these as ‘early games’ and have made a point to write about them for many years as they offer the perfect opportunity to catch some games during the working week without having to sacrifice too much sleep.

Mid-week is best

The main thing to note is that the 2017 experience was very similar to what we’ve come to expect in recent years.

Wednesday and Thursday are usually our best bet to catch some early games.  This is due to them being the days when working-week series come to a close (Game Three of a three-game series etc) and teams will schedule those at around 1pm local time so that one or both teams can make an earlier start on travelling to their next series.

Tuesday always comes up with the lowest total and this year’s was even slightly inflated courtesy of the 4th of July holiday falling on that day.   Similarly, Monday always gets a boost from a couple of holidays.

Months peaking early

Whilst there’s a hump in the middle when it comes to the days of the week, the month-by-month picture starts off with a peak in April and then tails off.

June is always a bit of a let-down after the first two months and looks even smaller in comparison to July when you consider that the best part of one week during that month is taken up by the All-Star Break.

However, even in June and September the total still averages out at 10 early games per working week. When you add on the early weekend games – and the fact that MLB.TV subscribers can watch back games ‘as live’ whenever they like to catch any night games – that still makes for plenty to watch.

The Top Teams

The top team for working-week early games in 2017 was the team that always comes out on top.

1st. Chicago Cubs (33 gms)
2nd. Cleveland Indians (31)
=3rd. Cincinnati Reds (26)
=3rd. Colorado Rockies (26)
=3rd. Detroit Tigers (26)
=3rd. Milwaukee Brewers (26)
=3rd. Oakland Athletics (26)

The Cubs play more home games in the afternoon than any other team due to restrictions on floodlit night-games at Wrigley Field.  However, they normally lead this list by a good margin, yet this time Cleveland ran them close (and worth taking a second to appreciate that we got watch the 2016 World Series participants so much this season).

Whether this was just one-off (perhaps linked to them being reigning World Series champs) or the new normal following renovations at Wrigley Field will be something to keep an eye on in 2018.

You’ll note that five of the seven teams listed all play in one of the two Central divisions, with the other two based in the West.  The first East division team were the rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies, who were involved in 24 working-week early games.

The Bottom Teams

At the other end of the scale we have a familiar bunch of teams.

30th. Texas Rangers (9 gms)
=29th. Baltimore Orioles (13)
=29th. Los Angeles Angels (13)
=29th. Los Angeles Dodgers (13)
=26th. Atlanta Braves (14)
=26th. Boston Red Sox (14)

The two teams based in LA, teams in the Eastern divisions and Texas usually can be found in the group that play the least amount of working-week early games.  There are established reasons for this, for example the oppressive mid-day heat in Arlington, Texas means that fewer home day-games tend to be played by the Rangers.

Their current ballpark does not have a retractable roof to moderate the temperature; however their new ballpark (provisionally scheduled to open in 2020) will do so this may see a slight increase in day-games in future.

The full list

Here’s the table of total number of working-week day-games for all 30 MLB teams in the 2017 regular season.

If you’re new to MLB and haven’t yet picked a team then looking at the number of day-games they tend to play in a season might well be something to factor in to your decision.

For example, UK-based fans of Texas this year got to watch their team at a convenient hour during the working-week less than a third of the occasions that fans of the Cubs and Indians did for their respective teams.  If you’re happy to catch up on games later on or watch them live in the early hours then no need to worry, but if you really want to watch as many games as possible live during the British evening then that’s a significant difference to take into account.

Bend or Break?

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Monday morning can be a dispiriting time, wondering where the weekend went, but a new week can also be welcome if the previous week wasn’t one of your best.

That would definitely apply to the Atlanta Braves.

Last week for the Braves was one of the most chastening an MLB team has experienced in recent memory. A well-respected organisation, one year on from moving into a new publicly-funded ballpark and full of optimism with their new youth movement, was exposed as having been breaking rules left, right and centre around the signing of international free agents.

Staff departures have included ex-General Manager John Coppolella effectively being banned for life from working in MLB, they’ve lost 12 of the players that they signed against the rules, and will face penalties in signing amateur players and international free agents until 2021.

Add on the reputational damage to the organisation and Atlanta have been dealt a severe punishment. Few seem to be arguing with it much, but many comments on the saga have included the following sentiment:

Everyone else is doing it too.

Young talent

It’s a familiar argument thrown out by anyone that gets caught, intended to justify their own actions whilst trying to take down others with them.

There’s probably some truth in it too in this case.  The Boston Red Sox lost 5 signings and received a short-term international signing ban in July last year for similar transgressions, getting around the spending limits by various ‘creative’ means.

The difference in the Braves’ case was the scale on which they were operating and how big of an advantage they were therefore gaining in the number and quality of prospects they amassed.

In other words, they didn’t just bend the rules, they broke them.

Of course, where the rules are clearly set out – as they are with international signing budgets – a bend is as good as break, yet in any competitive landscape a certain amount of bending is often both expected and accepted.

Teams will always look for ways to get around rules if it gives them an advantage.  Recruitment of young talent is a particularly ripe area for pushing boundaries as it largely goes on with no publicity.

The same happens in football.  Both Liverpool and Manchester City received fines and academy signing bans this summer due to breaking rules on making illegal approaches for young players.  Stories are legion around teams finding ways to convince families to let their sons join their academies (creating jobs for parents, free accommodation, paying of school fees for other siblings etc), all of which are not allowed.

Teams do it because ‘everyone else does’, or at least they think they do, and if they don’t then they’ll miss out. However every now and then someone pushes the boundaries too far and leaves the authorities with no choice but to act.  That’s what happened to the Braves.

Shohei Ohtani

It’s bad timing for some teams as last week it was announced that a new framework for the transfer of Japanese players to MLB was agreed, with Shohei Otani the latest big talent on the verge of moving to the Majors. There will be a lot of focus on ensuring due process is followed.

His signing bonus will fall within the international pool money rules. The Texas Rangers have the most money in their overall signing pool at $3,535,000, with the Yankees now close behind at $3.5m after building up their pot with a recent trade with the Miami Marlins.

More importantly, 12 teams – including the Dodgers and Astros – are limited to only offering $300k to a player following spending in previous years. Theoretically they have little chance of signing him as they cannot come close to the offers other teams can put forward in financial terms.

However, it’s not unheard of for teams to agree a multi-year contract with a talented young player in the first year or two in the Majors. So what if Otani decided to accept $300k from the Dodgers, citing the well-trodden path of Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda, Kenta Maeda and others that have ‘made it his dream to play for the Dodgers’, only to then agree a multi-year contract in Spring Training?

It’s fair to say, especially after what’s just happened to the Braves, the MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred would not let such a public workaround slide.

But what if the Dodgers agree a contract in two years’ time, particularly if Ohtani gains ‘Super 2’ status and is eligible for arbitration in his third MLB season? If the two sides agreed to do that as part of signing him now then that’s clearly breaking the rules, yet if it’s a verbal, informal arrangement then how easy would it be to prove? A five-year deal at that point, covering all of his arbitration years and buying out one year of free agency, would be entirely in line with industry practice, provided the dollar values were not too out of kilter with previous cases.

As it’s the Rangers and Yankees at the top of the budget pool list, the odds are good that he’ll go to one of those two teams and that very blatant scenario will not come about, yet even then you wouldn’t be surprised if Ohtani signed a multi-year contract at some point in the next year or two with the Rangers or Yankees.  There’s no difference, it’s really how cynical a move it appears to be.

Whether you’re bending the rules or breaking them.

Hall of Fame

Which brings us to the thorniest of subject matters: Hall of Fame voting and consideration of alleged drug use.

For several years many voters have bemoaned the position they had been put in, not least due to the Hall of Fame’s deafening silence on the topic.

That silence was broken last week by Joe Morgan who emailed all voters, aided by the Hall of Fame, setting out his view that “players who failed drug tests, admitted using steroids, or were identified as users in Major League Baseball’s investigation into steroid abuse, known as the Mitchell Report, should not get in”.

Whether you agree with the view espoused or not, the fact that a high-profile figure like Morgan actually set out a position was welcome, yet in doing so he also highlighted how difficult this issue is.  Morgan stated, “we hope the day never comes when known steroid users are voted into the Hall of Fame. They cheated. Steroid users don’t belong here”.

It’s a worthy moral position to take, but the problem is it’s almost certain steroid users have already been voted in and plenty of other players that “cheated” in different ways are enshrined in Cooperstown too. The latter is where things get increasingly tricky.

Some say there is a big difference between using steroids and shovelling amphetamines (‘greenies’ as they were known in baseball during the 1970s and 1980s) down your throat like Smarties.  In terms of performance-enhancing impact, that’s debatable.  What it comes back to is thinking one is bending the rules, whilst the other is breaking them.

We’ve had a related issue in British sport recently where Shane Sutton, former senior coach at Team Sky and British cycling, discussed the use of therapeutic use exemptions (TUEs). As he explained to the BBC:

“If you’ve got an athlete that’s 95% ready, and that little 5% injury or niggle that’s troubling, if you can get that TUE to get them to 100%, yeah of course you would in those days,” he said.

“The business you’re in is to give you the edge on your opponent… and ultimately at the end of the day it’s about killing them off.

“But definitely don’t cross the line and that’s something we’ve never done.”

“Don’t cross the line” is the important phrase there; bend the rules, but don’t break them.  When he then went on to label this as “finding the gains” he didn’t just make many pick up their dobbers to mark off a square in their Bullshit Bingo card, he also put it all into context.

People will always look at the rules and try to ‘find the gains’ however they can.  Rightly or wrongly, that’s the nature of the beast, whether it’s competing for signing talent in sport or the super-rich using off-shore tax havens.

The most significant difference between breaking the rules rather than bending them is not really a moral one, it’s that – as Atlanta found out – the former makes it difficult to obey the one rule that matters the most.

Don’t get caught.

Over to the off-season

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I like to have a few weeks away from baseball after the World Series is completed.

There’s normally not much news during the period and it’s nice to reflect on what happened over the long regular season and play-offs before thinking too much about next year.

It doesn’t take long for the MLB Hot Stove to start bubbling though.

Every off-season revolves around three related groups of players:

  • This year’s free agent class.
  • Next year’s free agent class.
  • Rumoured trade candidates.

The second and third groups usually cover some of the same players as teams that expect to lose someone as a free agent in a year’s time will consider if the trade package they can get for them now will be more advantageous than a potential future amateur draft pick.

However, this year the first and second groups are more closely connected than usual, simply because of the calibre of players that may hit the market in twelve months’ time.

This year’s key free agents

Yu Darvish
Jake Arrieta
Alex Cobb
Lance Lynn
Shohei Otani

Wade Davis
Greg Holland
Addison Russell

J.D. Martinez
Eric Hosmer
Mike Moustakas
Lorenzo Cain
Carlos Santana
Jay Bruce
Zack Cozart

Next year’s key (potential) free agents

Clayton Kershaw (opt-out)
David Price (opt-out)
Dallas Keuchel
Jose Quintana
Matt Harvey
Gio Gonzalez

Craig Kimbrel
Zach Britton
Andrew Miller
Cody Allen
David Robertson

Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Josh Donaldson
Charlie Blackmon
Adam Jones
Brian Dozier
Ian Kinsler.

Other trade candidates being touted

Chris Archer
Giancarlo Stanton
Marcell Ozuna
Christian Yelich
Dee Gordon
Brad Ziegler
Jose Abreu
Avisail Garcia

 

Looking at the other trade candidates first, the rumours primarily are focused on a potential Miami Marlins fire sale (yes, another one) with new ownership in place, most notably the tantalising prospect of recently-crowned MVP Stanton’s mega power and mega contract being shopped around, plus the Chicago White Sox continuing to trade away any players of worth.

The big story is in next year’s free agent class and how that may affect the market this year.  Quite simply, if you want to make a play at one of the big stars you’ll need to have the future payroll flexibility to be able to afford it, and that’s something that would be affected by chucking a large deal at someone this off-season.

Position-wise you could argue that Mike Moustakas is this year’s potential big loser as Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson are hugely attractive third-base targets.  However, it’s not so much about blocking postions as it is simply having the ability to take on another large contractual commitment. We may see a couple of this year’s free agents head to more middling payroll teams as a result, spying an opportunity to get a good free agent with some of the big players keeping out of the mix.

Of course, what has to be factored in is that potential free agents are just that.  Clayton Kershaw is the most obvious case of someone who potentially will be a free agent (as he can opt-out of his contract) but it would be a big surprise if he didn’t stay with the Dodgers one way or another.  Similarly the Toronto Blue Jays may decide to tempt Donaldson away from free agency by signing him to a lucrative extension this winter.

Everyone expects the New York Yankees to keep away from any significant free agent commitments this off-season as they look towards Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado.  Some already have Harper in Yankee pinstripes and, let’s be honest, that wouldn’t be a surprise, but the Washington Nationals’ ownership have a recent history of signing clients of the agent Scott Boras to large deals.

It seems likely he’ll move on, yet it’s not impossible that he will stay in the U.S. capital.

Is it impossible that the Nationals would trade Harper this off-season if they don’t feel they can keep him?  In MLB, there isn’t much that falls into the ‘impossible’ category, but it’s safe to say that would be close to it given that the Nationals are firmly in ‘win now’ mode.

So don’t expect Harper to be changing teams this off-season, but there are always one or two surprises in store.

World Series tied at 2-2 after Dodgers 5-run ninth inning

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The Houston Astros’ path to their first World Series title appeared to be set out following their 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Three on Friday night.

The win gave them a 2-1 series lead and made it seven wins out of seven at home in this year’s post-season. With two more victories needed to claim the title, and two more games coming up at Minute Maid Park, the script was written for a Sunday night celebration in Houston.

The Dodgers’ five-run outburst in the top of the ninth inning of Game Four on Saturday night ripped that script up, spoiling the Astros’ plans but adding an intriguing plot twist for the rest of us to enjoy.  A 1-1 level game heading into the final regulation inning turned into a 6-1 Dodger lead that the Astros could only reduce by one run (on Alex Bregman’s homer).

This World Series is officially in a state of Desmond (2-2).

Penalties 1

MLB acted quickly by issuing the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel with a 5-game suspension after his offensive behaviour during Game Three. The length of the suspension appears appropriate, the question is whether rolling it over to the start of the 2018 regular season was correct.

On balance, I think the right decision has been made.

The gesture was offensive towards Dodgers pitcher Yu Darvish, but it wasn’t something that affected a play or the player during the game. Consequently, there wasn’t a clear need from a fairness standpoint to issue a penalty that affected the rest of the series (i.e. it wasn’t a transgression that cost the Dodgers and therefore fairly needed to be balanced out staight away).

The justified high-profile scrutiny and criticism, and proportionate punishment being issued in terms of length of suspension, also means that I don’t think it would be fair to say Gurriel was allowed to ‘get away with it’ by playing the rest of the World Series.

Penalties 2

The Astros’ closer Ken Giles and fellow reliever Joe Musgrove were the fall-guys in Game Four. Combined with watching the previously unbreakable Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen being jumped on in Game Two, it’s made me think of relief pitchers – especially in the high stakes of the play-offs – as being a lot like penalty-takers in football.

The expectation is that a good penalty-taker should score and they can do so even if they don’t strike the ball cleanly or it doesn’t go quite where they were placing it. You get no extra points for style; so long as it goes in you’ve done your job under pressure.

It’s the same with a top relief pitcher. They earn that rank and role by coming out on top time and again, so they are used to handling the pressure and you expect them to do it pretty much every time. They too can succeed even if they miss their spot. If the hitter swings and misses, or makes weak contact and makes an out, all’s well that ends well.

However, as with a penalty shoot-out, one team has to lose and that means someone has to come out on the wrong end of it. Regardless of how good the relief pitcher is and how well they cope with the pressure, the person they are facing in the batter’s box is an elite ballplayer (just getting to the Majors proves that) and are just as desperate to succeed.

As has been written many times before, if it could happen to the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera in 2001, it could happen to anyone. That’s no great immediate solace to the relief pitcher as they trudge off the field, but something for the rest of us to remember as we watch the drama unfold.

The Astros and Dodgers are two excellent teams with some outstanding players. One of them has to lose. The rest of us can just sit back, enjoy the contest and hope it goes the full seven games.