Monthly Archives: January 2013

ESPN Spring Training coverage

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ESPN announced on Wednesday that they will be broadcasting eight Grapefruit League games during Spring Training.

It’s expected that all eight will be available on ESPN America and most, if not all, will be available for International MLB.TV subscribers online.

All games will begin at 17.00 U.K. time:

Monday 11. St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
Monday 18. Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Tuesday 19. New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday 20. Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Monday 25. Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday 26. St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Wednesday 27. Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers
Thursday 28. New York Mets at Washington Nationals.

ESPN is generally seen as being biased towards east coast teams and their Spring Training schedule will add some grist to that particular mill for those bothered by it.

The concentration of games towards the end of Spring Training reflects both that this is always the period when MLB regulars play the majority of the innings (as opposed to earlier in Spring Training when they’ll clear off after 4 or 5) and that the World Baseball Classic will steal the spotlight during the first half of March this year.

Prospects are good

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MLB.com published their Top 100 prospect list on Tuesday evening.

As expected, the Texas Rangers’ shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar was listed as the best rookie-eligible player in the game.  The Baltimore Orioles’ Dylan Bundy came in second and won the crown as the best pitching prospect.

There is plenty of Major League news to keep up with, especially when factoring in the time difference. Covering all the Minor League news as well can often be a time commitment too far and the wealth of online resources about prospects, whilst being a goldmine to those with a keen interest in the topic, can only serve to overwhelm the rest of us.

What I want to know about prospects is essentially:

  • Who are the best prospects in baseball?
  • Who are the main prospects at each team that I should know about?
  • How do the different farm systems rank against each other?

MLB.com’s prospect coverage is led by writer Jonathan Mayo and is an excellent free resource for fans to learn about the above. The Top 100 list announced yesterday was preceded by a series of columns listing Mayo’s rankings of the top 10 prospects at each position and all of the rankings are now available to sort however you wish.

The videos included for the best prospects can also be useful in helping you learn the pronunciation of the names.  You don’t pronounce the ‘l’s in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-handed pitching prospect  Jameson Taillon’s name (it’s pronounced ‘tie-on’), for example.

Away from the MLB.com coverage, the free resource I browse the most is the MinorLeageBall blog run by John Sickels. His team-by-team Top 20 prospect series is essential reading every winter, whether you’re participating in a Fantasy Dynasty League or if you just have a general interest in learning about each team’s best young players coming through.

The player rankings constructed in the team-by-team series informs Sickel’s annual Baseball Prospect Book, available in print or as a pdf. If you enjoy his work for free during the season, buying the annual is the best way to show your appreciation.

The one thing Sickels didn’t do prior to 2012 is help with the third question on my list. Ranking the farm systems is something he had consciously avoided in the past, primarily because he saw the process as being relatively unhelpful beyond the extremes of noting the very best and worst systems.

Sickels finally gave in to the demand last year and now publishes a farm system list accompanied by suitable caveats to explain the inherent limitations in the process.  Fans of the St. Louis Cardinals will be pleased to see their team coming out on top, whilst fans of the Detroit Tigers should make sure to enjoy their current Major League team with limited help on the way.

That shouldn’t be too much of a concern for the Tigers because having a strong farm system is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

After seeing the Cardinals at the top of Sickels’ list, the next thing I did was scroll down to see where my Oakland A’s had ended up. They are all the way down at 26th on the list, but their descent from 10th in the 2012 list is predominantly due to prospects graduating up to the Major League team last season, which is exactly what you want to see.

The same could be said for the Toronto Blue Jays. They were the best farm system on Sickels’ list this time last year and are now 22nd; however this is due to them trading away prospects to acquire the likes of Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey this offseason.  The Blue Jays feel they have an opportunity to be successful over the next couple of seasons and they’ve used their prospects to give themselves that chance.

If you want to know who to look out for during Spring Training, who might get called up this season or who might be traded away for Major League help, reading Mayo and Sickels is a must.

Looking ahead to the 2013 MLB.TV subscriptions

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The 2013 MLB.TV subscription details should be announced in the next couple of weeks.

Based on previous years, Friday 8 February and the weekend that follows is the likely release date, when baseball fans around the world will find out how much the annual subscription will cost and what will be included in the packages.

Prices increased in 2012 compared to 2011 but this was predominantly due to the MLB At-Bat App being included in the Premium subscription. In 2011 subscribers had to pay for the app separately if they wanted to access their subscribed content on mobile devices.

The table below states the subscription price details from the last five years, including the cost in pounds at the time of the prices being announced.

Year Prices announced MLB.TV std. MLB Premium
2012 10-Feb $110 (£70) $125 (£79.45)
2011 09-Feb $100 (£62) $120 (£74.50)
2010 28-Jan $100 (£61.60) $120 (£74)
2009 05-Feb $80 (£54.60) $110 (£75)
2008 09-Feb $90 (£47) $120 (£62)

The price changes reflect the fact that the subscription features have evolved over the years and this is particularly true for the MLB.TV standard package.

The basic option that was offered in 2008 and 2009 streamed video at a lesser quality and didn’t include features such as being able to pause and rewind live streams or the multi-game ‘Mosaic’ option.

Watching streamed video content online at HD quality (or close to it) is now a common activity for many, much more so than it was back in 2008. MLB.com’s online offerings have evolved to meet these increased expectations and the price of the basic offering has increased in line with this: few would be willing to pay anything, let alone $80-$90, for video streamed at 400kbps nowadays.

The price of the Premium product has remained relatively static over the past five years. That’s extremely welcome considering that seemingly everything else has increased in price exponentially over that period.

Fans based here in the U.K. have to factor in the variable of the dollar/pound exchange rate. That was most noticeable in 2009 when the MLB.com prices decreased in dollars compared to 2008 but the real cost to British fans actually increased. The exchange rate is little different today to twelve months ago, so that will not be an issue when comparing the 2013 prices to those of last year.

As the 2012 prices in dollars were an increase on 2011, it’s quite possible that there will be a price freeze in 2013 unless significant new features are included in the subscription packages.

My guess is that prices and features will remain pretty much the same in 2013 compared to 2012. And if the prices do go up, 2012 subscribers that decided to automatically renew for 2013 may be spared any increase, as happened with the price increases in 2010.

It will not be too long before we find out for certain and can start planning ahead for another season of great viewing and listening online.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: From coast to coast

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The recent trade of Justin Upton from Arizona to Atlanta will impact the pennant races in the East and West divisions in the National League.

For Atlanta, the trade completes a wonderfully exciting outfield in which Justin Upton will join brother B.J. and Jason Heyward to form a dynamic trio that should delight the fans at Turner Field.

Centrefielder Michael Bourn led the Braves in 2012 with a brilliant season in his final year before free agency and his departure – destination still unknown – had the potential to leave a notable hole that Atlanta could ill afford considering the strength of division rivals, the Washington Nationals.

Losing Bourn could still have a negative effect on the team’s performance. He had a markedly better campaign than either of the Upton brothers in 2012, although Justin Upton was hampered by a thumb injury, while the retirement of Chipper Jones and the loss of Martin Prado – sent to Arizona as part of the Upton trade – could leave them light on leadership.

However the great potential of the Upton brothers is undoubted and the Braves will hope that pairing them together will bring out the very best in both. If so, there will be a fascinating sub-plot to the NL East division battle with the best of the Braves being compared to the nifty Nationals.

Washington will have new recruit Denard Span manning centrefield, with Bryce Harper following up on his excellent rookie season and Jayson Werth hoping to rebound from an injury riddled 2012.

Werth was signed to a seven-year contract in the 2010/11 offseason and whilst the deal always looked like an overpay, it was expected that the real cost would come near the end of the contract. Instead, Werth’s first two seasons in Washington have been a major disappointment. The 2013 season is the ideal time for him to provide the Nationals with the sort of performance that won him the multi-year deal.

Elsewhere in the NL East, the New York Mets are interested in signing Bourn but the prospect of losing their first-round draft pick currently appears to be a price too high when combined with the size of the contract Bourn is looking for and the fact that the Mets are very unlikely to be contenders in 2013 even with a new centrefielder.

As for the Phillies, their outfield looks distinctly underwhelming and General Manager Ruben Amaro – a man clearly not held in the highest of esteem by many on the web – has been ridiculed in some quarters for signing free agent Delmon Young to be the team’s right-fielder. The thought of the blundering Young regularly trotting out to right field will make you laugh or cry depending on whether you are a Phillies fan or not, although the meagre $750k investment in the former Detroit Tiger suggests that Amaro isn’t committed to Young being the answer all season either.

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ General Manager Kevin Towers will be all-too familiar with the dismissive comments flying Amaro’s way.

His decision to trade away a young star in Justin Upton has left many people scratching their heads. When combined with the decision to trade away pitcher Trevor Bauer, the explanation that Towers and manager Kirk Gibson are conducting a purge of players that don’t fit their favoured ‘gritty’ mould is too convenient to ignore, despite that protestations that this has been exaggerated (which may well be true to an extent).

Players that will scrap for every out are an important part of a winning clubhouse, but the best teams are those that can win games in different ways and that means possessing a roster containing players of different talents. Anyone can get their uniform dirty diving for lost causes and charging into the outfield fence. Few players, even among Major Leaguers, have the raw talent to make the game look effortlessly easy and to produce moments of magic.

What makes the Upton trade so baffling is that his ex-teammates are quick to point out that, whilst he may not outwardly show his passion, he is as hard-working and dedicated a professional as you could wish to meet.  For a team that wants to both win now and over the next few seasons, you’d be hard pushed to find a better player to have in your outfield.

It seems a strange move, but in fairness to Towers his busy offseason has still left the D-Backs with a competitive roster that has good pitching depth and some more-than-useful batting options. They don’t hold the honour of being the reigning World Series champions like the San Francisco Giants, nor do they have the media exposure of the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, but Arizona should not be overlooked as a genuine play-off contender this coming season.

Rounding the bases

Francisco Liriano went into the festive season with a two-year, $12.75m contract agreed with the Pittsburgh Pirates only to take a tumble and break his right arm. Thankfully for him, the Pirates did not walk away and instead agreed a restructured contract that takes into account him potentially missing part of the 2013 season. When healthy, Liriano figures to be in the rotation alongside A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald and Jeff Karstens, with star pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings.

Staying in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers will have to make do without Corey Hart until the end of May at the earliest after he underwent knee surgery this past week.  Mat Gamel will get another chance to grab hold of the first-base job after his presumed succession to Prince Fielder fell apart last year due to his own knee injury.

Former Brewer Shaun Marcum has agreed a one-year contract with the New York Mets. Milwaukee acquired Marcum in a trade over the 2010/11 offseason along with Zack Greinke in an effort to finally provide some pitching to go alongside their talented batting lineup. The deals took them to the 2011 NLCS, however they are now back in the same situation they found themselves in at the end of the 2010 season, with a rotation of Yovani Gallardo followed by question marks.

The headline gave a stark message: “Alex Rodriguez could miss the entire 2013 season”.  As soon as you got into the story, though, it was clear there was a very strong emphasis on the word “could”. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has noted that it’s a possibility they could be without their third baseman all season, but the expectation is still that Rodriguez will return sometime in July.  The real question for the Yankees is what level of performance they can expect from him once he does return? The one thing we do know is that it will not be worth anywhere remotely close to the $28m (£17.7m, or just under £341k per week) they will be paying him.

British Baseball Beat: NBL and the North

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The 2013 British Baseball Federation Annual General Meeting is scheduled to take place at Birmingham City University this Saturday (26th).

This year’s collection of motions being put forward includes one from the Liverpool Trojans (M5 in the pack) that picks up on a matter that has become a growing talking point within British baseball.

Should the Northern section be represented in the National Baseball League Championship?

There was an intriguing conversation on Twitter about this very topic just before Christmas.

Representatives of the eight National Baseball League (NBL) teams met in London on 18 December to discuss plans for the top-tier of British baseball. A couple of days later, Herts Baseball Club floated the following idea to reigning AAA-North champions the Liverpool Trojans:

The idea of the AAA-North champions potentially qualifying for an NBL Wild Card playoff spot was thrown out there to be discussed. The Twitter conversation branched out into wider potential scenarios to consider for the future, including looking at whether the North is ready to step up to the NBL level again in the regular season.

Herts suggested that Liverpool put forward the suggestion to the BBF and hence we have the motion on the agenda for this Saturday’s meeting.

The top-tier of British Baseball has been contested solely by Southern teams for the past four years and that has made sense considering the depth of teams involved.

The 2008 National League Northern section consisted of three teams. The Trojans sadly had to withdraw part of the way through the season and that left the two remaining teams, the Manchester Eagles and Menwith Hill Patriots, in guaranteed National League playoff spots. Both were beaten relatively comfortably by southern counterparts in the semi-finals, the Eagles falling 10-3 to the Richmond Flames and the Patriots suffering a 15-1 loss to the eventual champions, the London Mets.

However it’s important for the growth of the game that there isn’t a glass ceiling based on geography.  Not only should the door be open to Northern and Midlands teams potentially to compete at the NBL level, it should be a key part of the British Baseball Federation’s medium term planning to try to facilitate this.  That’s much easier said than done, of course, but that should be the ambition.

A true ‘national’ league championship should reflect its title.

There’s no doubt that it’s the performances of the Liverpool Trojans over the past couple of seasons that have pushed the issue up the agenda again. They went through the 2011 season unbeaten and have compiled a 48-2 win-loss record over the past two seasons combined. Who wouldn’t want to see the class of the North testing themselves against the best that the South has to offer?

That brings us back to the question of how this may be achieved.

Simply moving the Trojans – or any other Northern/Midlands team – into the NBL probably wouldn’t be a realistic option due to the travel implications.

We all know that in an amateur sport the location of teams – and therefore the investment in time and cost that those involved have to commit to over the course of a season – is a non-trivial factor in scheduling.  The last thing we would want is for travel implications to have a greater impact, either in significantly reducing the number of games being played or, at the extreme end, forcing some players away from the game altogether.

The next option to consider would be a return to an NBL containing more than one geographic division.  That leads to the question posed by Herts as to the feasibility of the AAA-North becoming an NBL division, and perhaps there being a Midlands equivalent in the future too.

The prospect is unquestionably an exciting one, but I would hold on dearly to the concept that the classification of the ‘top-tier’ should mean something.

Whatever the sport, the top league is always the flag-bearer that leads the way in selling the game. Extending the NBL should be a decision based on the quality of the teams rather than a simple rebranding exercise.

The quality will always vary throughout any given league and indeed a team’s fortunes can ebb and flow from year to year due to key players coming or going.  At some point you need to take the plunge, even if that means a couple of teams currently not quite being up to scratch. I don’t get to take in any Northern baseball so others will be in a far better position to make a fully considered judgement than me, but the Trojans’ dominance over the past two seasons suggests that they are a fair way ahead of their competitors and that giving the North NBL classification would not yet be merited.

Indeed, the Trojans’ NBL Wild Card spot motion perhaps reflects this point and appears to be the most sensible option to consider. It would be following the precedent of AA Midlands and North teams being able to participate in the A postseason so would not be out of kilter with the rest of the postseason structure.

I’m not a big fan of teams playing postseason games at a different level to which they competed during the regular season. When a team wins a championship, you want the classification of being the best to really mean something. Let’s take the example of the AAA-North champions moving on to the NBL Wild Card this season. The team that goes on to win the AAA National Baseball Championship would have fully earned their right to be there and could be proud of winning the important postseason games to claim the prize. Yet there would still be a lingering question mark as to whether they were truly the best AAA team that season.

Maybe this matters much more to a fan with a keen interest in the history of the game and isn’t a major issue for the players involved. Fiddling with the competition levels isn’t ideal, but the current British baseball landscape doesn’t contain a nice even balance of teams of the same standard and therefore a bit of a fiddle may be the most pragmatic way to account for this, creating the most diverse, competitive, enjoyable and exciting postseason possible right now.

It will be interesting to see how the Trojans’ motion is received on Saturday and whether the 2013 National Baseball Champion will merit the ‘national’ classification just that little bit more.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: More replay on the way

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For many people, part of baseball’s charm is the way it stays the same. The sport cherishes its past; traditions are embraced and comfort is taken in the idea that the game played today is little different to that of 100 years ago.

Yet within this nostalgic view, it shouldn’t be overlooked that we’re in the midst of a period of important change in MLB.

Last season saw the introduction of a new Wild Card round to the postseason, this year will bring season-long Interleague play with the Houston Astros moving to the AL West, and it appears that 2014 will herald the start of a new era of expanded instant replay.

ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark recently wrote about the delay in making changes to the current limited replay system and all of the complexities that are currently being debated within MLB, with a view to a new system being in place for the start of the 2014 season.

Any fan who has seen their team undone by a clearly incorrect call – all that’s every fan, despite MLB umpires largely doing a brilliant job – will be keen for baseball to finally join the ranks of most other sports by introducing instant replay in a meaningful way.

However, the belief that replay is an officiating panacea is not true. Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter is quoted in Stark’s piece saying “Right now, they’re right 99 per cent of the time. But they should be able to get to 100 per cent [by using replay]”.

Sorry Buck, but you’re out of luck there.

Even with plenty of cameras at every game – and Stark’s article raises the important point that camera coverage is currently very varied in MLB ballparks – it’s impossible to get the perfect angle for every incident. That’s not always an issue, but it is in some cases and without the perfect angle you still have to rely on an element of judgement.

That judgement isn’t simply an interpretation of the rules, it can also involve how your brain interprets the images. We’ve seen it plenty of times in cricket: a super-slow-mo, zoomed-in image shows the ball coming into close proximity with the bat for a potential ‘knick’. Some will see the ball clearly deviate as it clips the edge of the bat, others will see it harmlessly passing by. Both sides are left incredulous that the other can’t see what looks indisputable to them.

So instant replay isn’t always a clear-cut way to answer every single argument and that’s an important point to keep in mind.

It still should be better than the current situation though and that’s really what most are looking for. What we want is an end to blatantly incorrect calls changing the course of a game.

The difficulty comes in implementing a system that allows the officials to target those important decisions without reviewing every marginally questionable case. MLB’s initial relationship with replay focuses on home run calls as these are key plays where a run or four is scored (or not). A close play on a runner reaching first base may be inconsequential if followed by an inning-ending double-play on the very next pitch, or it could be the precursor to a six-run rally.  It’s simply not always known what will turn out to be a crucial play while the game unfolds.

Stark’s article states that managers and players are not overly keen on a ‘challenge’ system, which suggests that it will be up to the umpire’s discretion as to whether a decision is referred onto a fifth umpire or not (thankfully the farcical sight of the umpiring crew heading off the field to consult replay images in secret as everyone else twiddles their thumbs appears to be on borrowed time).

That should be a manageable system as currently it’s rare for there to be more than a couple of incidents per game that might need to be reviewed. The danger is that umpires become overly cautious and start checking decisions just to be sure, perhaps egged on by managers demanding a play to be reviewed. The only way we’ll know is to live with the system for a few years and to see how it goes.

Whatever system is introduced, you can be sure that it will not please everybody and it will not bring an end to umpiring controversy. However, the new system in 2014 doesn’t have to be – and logic tells us it won’t be – the definitive answer to using replay.

So long as it’s accepted as a search for improvement, not a search for complete perfection, a new system should have a positive affect on those who play, watch, or officiate in MLB.

Rounding the bases

It was sad weekend for baseball with Hall of Famers Stan Musial and Earl Weaver passing away. The book ’Weaver on Strategy’ is one that any British baseball fan should consider adding to their collection.

One week ago, there were three main free agents left on the market, all of them being clients of agent Scott Boras. That list is now down to two (Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse) after Rafael Soriano agreed a two-year, $28m contract with the Washington Nationals. Boras’ strategy appears to be to wait for other players to come off the market – unless bowled over by an offer – to then leave him and his clients as a team’s only option if they want to improve via free agency. It worked with Prince Fielder last year and has worked for Soriano now, so don’t be surprised if Borne and Lohse end up with lucrative multi-year contracts too.

As for the Nationals, they followed up on strengthening their bullpen by trading Michael Morse to the Seattle Mariners in a three-club deal also involving the Oakland A’s. Morse became surplus to requirements once Adam LaRoche agreed to return to Washington on a two-year contract. The Mariners desperately needed to upgrade their offence, but their fans have some reason to feel underwhelmed by being reunited with Morse alongside the acquisitions of Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales and Jason Bay this offseason.

Mike Napoli’s move to the Boston Red Sox has finally been agreed, but the Red Sox’s concerns with one of Napoli’s hips has cost him a lot of money. The initial three-year, $39m contract that they had agreed early in the offseason has turned into a one-year deal guaranteeing him $5m, with a further potential $8m in incentives.

Enthusiasm for the World Baseball Classic still appears to be lukewarm in the States, but the announcement last week of provisional rosters for the event certainly caught the imagination of baseball fans in many other parts of the world. Barry Larkin, who will manage Brazil in this year’s tournament, explained the situation well in stating,“being on the other side internationally, the tournament is humongous .. there is a tremendous amount of interest and excitement. I think it’s more exciting because of the opportunity it gives the players who are not in the States”.

The highlight of the WBC roster announcements for me was looking at the talent on the Netherlands’ provisional list. Dutch Major league (Hoofdklasse) stalwarts such as pitchers Rob Cordemans and David Bergman could be joined by highly-touted prospects such as the Rangers’ Jurickson Profar, the Red Sox’s Xander Bogaerts and the Orioles’ Jonathan Schoop, as well as the Braves’ shortstop whiz Andrelton Simmons. It’s possible that not all will be on the final roster, but the Dutch will have an exciting infield even with only a couple of them joining the team.

MLB ‘early’ games 2012: Part Two

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In the first part of our review of the pre-midnight U.K. time, working week MLB games played during 2012 we focused on the weekday and monthly distribution of those games.

In this second and final part, we will focus on how the early games are divided up among the 30 MLB teams.

The data reveals how often a team played at a convenient time for fans in the U.K. to follow the action live. This may be an important factor to consider if you are new to the sport and are having difficulty in picking a team to follow.

Chicago Cubs lead the way again

It’s no surprise that the Chicago Cubs once again top the ‘early’ game charts by a considerable margin, with their total of 39 ‘early’ games being 13 more than the next highest total (the Milwaukee Brewers’ 26).

The team stuck by tradition for many years and didn’t install floodlights at Wrigley Field until August 1988. Since that point, largely due to the location of the ballpark and the surrounding area, the Cubs have been restricted by the city council in respect of the amount of home night-games they are allowed to play.

Consequently the Cubs will always be involved in the highest number of games played during the British evening and teams that play the Cubs the most (i.e. fellow NL Central division teams) can expect a small boost as well with an extra day-game or two per season.

The full list

Setting the Cubs’ total to one side, the number of ‘early’ games played range from the Brewers’ 26 down to just 12 for both the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles (two of the lowest scorers in 2011 as well).

Teams 2012 gms 2012 rank 2011 gms 2011 rank Gm difference
Chicago Cubs 39 1st 36 1st 3
Milwaukee Brewers 26 2nd 20 16th 6
San Francisco Giants 25 3rd 24 J-6th 1
Oakland Athletics 24 J-4th 26 4th -2
New York Mets 24 J-4th 21 J-11th 3
Detroit Tigers 23 6th 27 3rd -4
Tampa Bay Rays 22 J-7th 32 2nd -10
San Diego Padres 22 J-7th 25 5th -3
Cincinnati Reds 21 J-9th 23 8th -2
Pittsburgh Pirates 21 J-9th 22 J-9th -1
Cleveland Indians 21 J-9th 19 J-17th 2
St. Louis Cardinals 21 J-9th 18 J-23rd 3
Miami Marlins 20 13th 15 J-27th 5
Minnesota Twins 19 J-14th 24 J-6th -5
Chicago White Sox 19 J-14th 21 J-11th -2
Colorado Rockies 18 J-16th 21 J-11th -3
Washington Nationals 18 J-16th 19 J-17th -1
Philadelphia Phillies 17 J-18th 21 J-11th -4
Seattle Mariners 17 J-18th 19 J-17th -2
Arizona Diamondbacks 16 20th 15 J-27th 1
Toronto Blue Jays 15 J-21st 21 J-11th -6
Houston Astros 15 J-21st 19 J-17th -4
Kansas City Royals 15 J-21st 19 J-17th -4
Los Angeles Dodgers 15 J-21st 17 25th -2
Los Angeles Angels 15 J-21st 14 30th 1
New York Yankees 14 J-26th 22 J-9th -8
Boston Red Sox 14 J-26th 19 J-17th -5
Texas Rangers 14 J-26th 18 J-23rd -4
Atlanta Braves 12 J-29th 16 26th -4
Baltimore Orioles 12 J-29th 15 J-27th -3

The top five teams for playing ‘early’ games in 2011 – the Cubs, Rays, Tigers, A’s and Padres – all featured in the top seven in 2012. The World Series champion San Francisco Giants moved up to the third-most ‘early’ games played in 2012 compared to being joint-sixth in 2011, whilst the Brewers’ six-game increase from their 2011 total (from 20 to 26) moved them up in the rankings from joint-sixteenth to second.

The most striking trend when comparing 2011 with 2012 is how all of the AL East teams saw a decline in the number of ‘early’ games being played; the Ray’s decline from 32 to 22 being the most extreme. This will predominantly be accounted for by the fact that a team’s schedule is weighted so that they play more games against other teams in the same division. Therefore if a couple of teams in a division decide to host less day-games in a particular season, that will affect not only their own score, but also that of teams they play against most frequently (exactly how that plays out – i.e. which specific games are played at night rather than in the day time – would need to be considered on a team-by-team basis).

Looking ahead to 2013

It stands to reason that every team’s day-game total is not only affected by their own home-game schedule but also the schedules of their opponents. When looking ahead to 2013, we have to remember that the Houston Astros’ move from the NL Central to the AL West division has resulted in interleague games being played virtually all season long and the whole scheduling format being modified.  It will be interesting to see how this effects the number of day-games different teams play over the next few seasons compared with 2011 and 2012.

MLB ‘early’ games 2012: Part One

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For several years now, BaseballGB has provided a guide to the MLB games that British fans can enjoy during the evening, U.K. time.

Last year I compiled all the data to produce a guide to the 2011 ‘early’ games and this is the first of two columns in which I do the same for the 2012 season.

As before, I’ve focused on games scheduled for the working week (Monday to Friday inclusive). For many of us it’s easier to catch a late-night game on Saturday than a mid-week game and the vast majority of Sunday games are played during the British evening anyway. That means the working week ‘early’ games produce ‘bonus’ baseball that we can watch without staying up all hours.

The figures only include games that were due to be played before midnight U.K. time when I checked the fixture list at the start of the respective week. Games rearranged at short notice during the week haven’t been included for two reasons: 1) I can’t be sure I always added them to the list and I wanted the data to be consistent, 2) a late rearranged fixture isn’t so useful because by their nature they don’t help you plan for the week’s viewing/listening.

TFI Wednesday?

When it comes to planning your week, Wednesday and Thursday are the best two evenings to keep clear for live baseball.  BBC 5 Live Sports Extra switched from a Sunday night slot to a Thursday evening show (with some Sunday games thrown in for good measure) in 2012 and there were plenty of games for the team to pick from.

The comparison chart shows that 2012 followed the same pattern as 2011 when it came to which weekdays offered the best chance to catch some live baseball at a convenient time.  The Monday total is boosted by two U.S. public holidays each year, on which a significant proportion of games are played during the day-time, whilst Wrigley Field is often the venue for a Friday early fixture. Of the 24 played in 2012, 13 included the Chicago Cubs.

The best baseball months

Looking at the early games from a monthly basis we see that the season starts off brilliantly, then drops in June before picking up again during August and September. ‘October baseball’ is often used as a shorthand for a team playing the postseason, but in 2012 the regular season spillled over into the first three days of that month and the final day of the season (3 October) produced 6 early games.

When we put the monthly distribution of 2012 games alongside that of 2011 we see that there are a few notable differences*.

The drop in games in June 2012 looks particularly striking and there are no obvious reasons, looking at the schedules, to account for it.  Seeing a dip in June is perhaps preferable to one in August, with games starting to count for that little bit more during the second half of the season, and we did get an appreciable rise in August early games in 2012 compared to 2011 (up from 38 to 49). That was counterbalanced by a decrease during September.

(*) For the sake of tidiness, I’ve excluded the day of games played on 31 March in 2011 and the 6 early games played in October 2012.

Next time

In Part Two, we’ll take a look at how the early games were distributed among the MLB teams.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: Hall of Fame

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The past week was dominated by the announcement of the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot results in which none of the 37 eligible players were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

An election shutout has occurred seven times in the past. What made the eighth so notable is that it came from arguably the most star-studded ballot that the voters have ever been presented with.

The voters, 569 members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), have attracted plenty of flak for their collective decision. However, in fairness to the BWAA this wasn’t a situation completely of their own making. MLB’s drug-taking past was the open secret that everyone acknowledged but no one really wanted to deal with. This year’s ballot was the most public case so far of one part of the baseball community, the Hall of Fame voters, having no choice but to confront it.

As expected, the process was difficult; the outcome was divisive.

In a strange way this is something to celebrate. It was difficult and divisive because people care so passionately about baseball stats and history.  The Hall of Fame, the way we recognise the history of MLB, matters because the sport itself is such an integral part of so many people’s lives.

Reconciling this with the complex realities of the game as it is played is not always easy, as seen during the 2012 season.

The official records show that Buster Posey’s .336 batting average led the Senior circuit in 2012. Baseball-Reference has highlighted his name and average to indicate that things aren’t quite that straight forward.  According to the normal rules, his ex-teammate Melky Cabrera should have won the ‘batting title’ with his .346 average. He didn’t because he failed a drug test in August and the player, Players Association and MLB agreed to pass a one-season-only rule to disqualify him from the running.

Introducing temporary rules to gain a more palatable result is hardly ideal, yet it seemed to be the pragmatic response to a difficult situation. Cabrera had tested positive and the batting title if awarded would have been a hollow achievement for the player. The most important part of the decision was to act quickly and to give the other players a chance to compete for it, rather than revise history once the season was over.

The difference between MLB today and when the Hall of Fame class played the bulk of their careers is the presence of the drug testing programme that caught Cabrera.

This was not introduced until the 2004 season. You can debate for hours what that might mean for any user’s culpability before then – was it truly against the rules etc – but any decision on that doesn’t change the fact that there was no mechanism to catch people and to provide actual evidence of use or non-use.

It is the non-use that should be emphasised here.

There is no reason for any genuinely clean athlete to accept the intrusion of being subjected to random testing on a consistent basis if they cannot hold up their clean record at the end of a long career as evidence that they did not take drugs.

Whilst we all know that drug-testing is not perfect and determined cheats may find ways to thwart the testers, the onus is on the drug-testing programme to catch up with them and the possibility of people cheating the system should not stain the reputations of everybody else.

The problem for the ‘clean’ players on the recent ballot is that they don’t have a resume of clean tests to help their case. From a collective point of view it is valid to point out that the players, through the Players Association, could have pushed to introduce drug-testing years ago. It wasn’t simply a case of bad timing, they could have helped to avoid this situation, and I’m sure there were players that tried to do so.

Why it didn’t happen until 2004 is no doubt a complex answer heavily influenced by the years of labour disputes, culminating in the 1994-95 strike.

The simplest answer is that baseball was booming during the so-called steroid era and it was easier for everyone, if not to turn a blind eye in every case, to feel a tinge of discomfort and then get back to revelling in the incredible excitement of the Run to 61 and all that followed.

That’s why landing all the blame on the players does not seem right. Fans and writers enjoyed the exploits on the field at the time. Many were expressing doubts by the time Barry Bonds was edging past Hank Aaron’s all-time home run total, but we all kept watching all the same.

The only reason Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio (I would add Jeff Bagwell to name at least one other) will not be giving induction speeches at Cooperstown this year is due to doubt caused by the ‘steroid era’.  With no actual evidence of drug taking by them to point to, that seems completely unjust.

The argument can even extend to Bonds and Roger Clemens. Although there is some evidence at least linking them to drug-taking, it is in part due to their elevated standing in the game – plus, I suspect, their possibly undeserved reputations as being surly and generally disliked – that they have been subjected to such scrutiny.  I’ve yet to see anyone construct a convincing argument that shows that alleged drug use turned them from being merely very good players to greatness.

If unarguable evidence showed they had taken drugs during their career – and with Bonds at least the case already seems set – that would affect my opinion of them, but it wouldn’t change my belief that they were two of the greatest players ever to play the game.

As such, they belong in the Hall of Fame.

Let the spotlight created by being elected for such an honour, not least the focus on their induction speeches, make us all reflect upon the era in which they played.  The best and most constructive way for us to learn from the era is to remember it, not to forget it.

Weekly Hit Ground Ball: A 2013 return

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After a one-year hiatus, my ‘Weekly’ Hit Ground Ball column returns today.

Every Monday, I’ll be writing about the key stories that caught my eye in MLB over the past week.

Lonestar State MLB season opener

Our progression through the long baseball-free winter months reached a significant moment this past week as ESPN announced which game would be the 2013 MLB regular season opener.

Baseball fans in the U.K. will be putting sleep to one side in the early hours of Monday 1 April as the Houston Astros make their American League debut against the Texas Rangers. The game will begin shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday 31 March, making for a 1 a.m. Bank Holiday Monday start for us.

The game choice is a slight surprise. The obvious choice for the marquee season opener was the game between the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the reigning World Series champions the San Francisco Giants.

Over the past ten seasons, the reigning World Series champions have featured in the opening game on seven occasions (taking the three Japan series in 2004, 2008 and 2012 out of the equation).

On the other three occasions, the Orioles celebrated 50 years in Baltimore to start the 2004 season against the Boston Red Sox, Ryan Zimmerman memorably launched the new Nationals Ballpark by launching a walk-off home run against the Atlanta Braves in 2008, and there was no single opening game in 2011 when the action started on a Thursday.

The Astros’ move into the American League is certainly a notable moment. It marks the end of the organization’s 51-season spell in the Senior Circuit and is the first time a team has switched leagues since the Milwaukee Brewers moved from the AL to the NL in 1998.  Combine that with this being the first game in a new American League local rivalry against the Rangers and it should be the sort of memorable occasion that the marquee opener deserves.

The only problem from a neutral’s perspective is that the Astros aren’t very good. And that’s putting it kindly.

Houston lost 107 games in 2012, after losing 106 in the previous year, and their offseason inactivity coupled with the move to a more competitive division doesn’t bode well for their prospects in 2013.  Their number one starting pitcher right now is Bud Norris and whilst he’s a decent enough starter who can rack up some strikeouts for your fantasy team, he isn’t anyone’s definition of an ace.

It’s a shame that the Astros are starting this new era whilst being in the early stages of a rebuilding phase. The Major League team and farm system had needed an overhaul since 2009, but stubbornness alongside the protracted sale of the organization delayed the process for a couple of years and it’s probable that Astros fans will be waiting until 2015 or 2016 before they start to see real progress at the Major League level.

But let’s not be too negative. Every baseball fan knows that however mediocre a team may look on paper, and however poorly they may perform over the course of a season, they are capable of pulling out a win on any given day or night.

The Astros played six Interleague games against the Rangers last season. They lost five of them, but they did gain a 6-5 victory over their rivals on 19 May at Minute Maid Park.

One solitary win doesn’t count for much in the general scheme of things; however wouldn’t it be great if the unfancied Astros shocked the Rangers with an Opening Night victory, sending their fans home happy, decked out in clothing adorned with their new logo and colour scheme, toasting the joy of being able to claim that they have the best record in the Majors, for one night at least.

It could come true, or they could be put to the sword by a Texas team intent on showing the locals how tough life will be in the AL West.

The 2013 regular season opener will not just be a great occasion for the Astros, it will be an instant reminder, as another season gets underway, of one of the great wonders of baseball: you never know what’s going to happen.

Berkman joins the Rangers

Saturday’s news that Lance Berkman has agreed a one-year,$10m contract with the Texas Rangers will bring an extra storyline to the opening game.

Berkman is of course an Astros hero having been a star on the team from 1999 to 2010. Injury wrecked his 2012 season with the St. Louis Cardinals, restricting him to only 32 games; however, that followed a memorable 2011 campaign in which he helped the Cards to a World Series win.

Moving to the AL, where his knees can be rested as a Designated Hitter, increases the odds that Berkman will be able to contribute throughout the season. If he does, the Rangers’ offence is really starting to shape up again. This is their projected batting lineup against right-handed pitchers, as proposed by the brilliant MLBDepthCharts website:

1 2B Ian Kinsler
2 SS Elvis Andrus
3 LF David Murphy*
4 3B Adrian Beltre
5 DH Lance Berkman**
6 RF Nelson Cruz
7 C A.J. Pierzynski*
8 1B Mitch Moreland*
9 CF Leonys Martin*

Projected Bench
C Geovany Soto
IF/OF Leury Garcia
IF/OF Mike Olt
OF Craig Gentry

(* = left-handed hitter, ** = switch-hitter).

The one criticism you could level at the line-up is that David Murphy is not an ideal Number Three hitter, but if they could add another quality bat to the outfield mix – and they continue to be linked with a trade for Arizona’s Justin Upton – then it would become a very well-balanced offence.

The Rangers have lost several key players this offseason, not least Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, whilst missing out on pitching targets such as Zack Greinke and James Shields.  However one look at their roster tells you that it would be a grave mistake to underestimate how good a team they remain.

Optimism in Cleveland

Positivity and optimism was overflowing this week in Cleveland as the Indians formally announced the signing of free agent outfielder Nick Swisher.

The former Yankee is one of the most gregarious players in MLB so the level of excitement coming from the player was no surprise. However, there seemed to be a wider sense at the press conference that Cleveland, with Terry Francona at the helm, are on their way up.

Moving from a 68-94 record in 2012 to challenging the formidable Detroit Tigers in 2013 may be beyond them, but there are genuine reasons for fans of the Tribe to look forward to the coming season with optimism that their team is heading in the right direction once again.