2007 Regular Season Predictions

Just hours away from the first pitch of the season, and with a nod to my post yesterday (basically saying that we cannot predict the baseball season), here are my 2007 Regular Season predictions!

American League

East – Winners = Yankees, Wild card = Red Sox.

The smart money says that the Yankees and the Red Sox are set for the top two positions. The Blue Jays are a good team, but their starting pitching behind Halliday and Burnett looks comparatively shaky, as does their bullpen in front of B.J. Ryan. Still, it’s not as though New York and Boston have “perfect” rosters (if such a thing exists) either. If the Blue Jays can keep healthy (particularly getting full seasons from Burnett and Frank Thomas) and the Yankees or Red Sox falter, they are more than good enough to take advantage.

If they don’t slip up then the traditional two-way fight for the top spot will be decided by a host of ifs, buts and maybes. The Yankees batting line-up looks formidable, but once again their starting pitching looks questionable. A healthy Wang and Pettitte combined with Mussina and good rookie performances by Kei Igawa and Phil Hughes will tip the balance in New York’s favour; however if Pettitte struggles with injuries and if Hughes is kept out of the Majors for too long (or takes some time adjusting to life in the big leagues) then the Yanks will be vulnerable. By the same token, Boston have plenty of question marks over parts of their batting line-up (how well will Pedroia hit? Will Lowell regress to 2005 form? Did 2006 mark the beginning of a sudden end for Varitek? Can Crisp rebound from an injury hit season? etc) and while their rotation contains lots of talent, there’s no guarantee it will come to fruition (Schilling and Wakefield are at the tail-end of their careers, Beckett was very susceptible to the homer in 2006, Matsuzaka has to adjust to a new league and a new country). If things fall right for the Red Sox then they could pip the Yankees; however New York look the slightly safer bet. So long as they don’t fall apart again at the end of the season, Boston should just beat out the second-placed Central division team to take the wild card.

The Orioles remind me of Newcastle Utd; spending money every year with no plan behind it and not really getting anywhere as a result. Yes their bullpen will be improved thanks to the $40 million they have spent on it, but it doesn’t change the fact that their offense and starting pitching isn’t good enough to compete in the East. The D-Rays will arguably have the most exciting outfield in the Majors this year and Tampa Bay residents have some very promising young talent to watch. They will have to wait for at least another year before they have a winning season though.

Central – Winners = Indians

The Tigers had an extraordinary year in 2006 and there’s a general feeling that they may fall back a bit while trying to follow it up. Although I like the addition of Sheffield, the sight of Sean Casey and Neifi Perez on their 25 man roster makes me nervous about their chances. Combine this with the recent news that Kenny Rogers will be out of action for several months and there’s reason to doubt they will be able to quite live up to their 2006 performance. Who might beat them? Well just like last year, everyone’s jumping on the Cleveland bandwagon. There’s a lot to like about the Tribe and they appear to have addressed their major weakness of 2006: their bullpen. I can see them bouncing back from last year’s disappointment and edging the Central ahead of Detroit. The Twins will need another outstanding second half surge if they want to compete because they will have plenty of ground to make up after the early season starts of Ortiz, Ponson and Silva. The White Sox appear to have all the bits of the puzzle in place and could challenge if everything falls for them, but when you look closer you see an ageing core of power hitters who could easily fall victim to injuries, some major offensive black holes (Uribe, Podsednik, Erstad, Anderson) and a rotation that probably won’t be as good as people think (Contreras was poor in the second half last year while Buehrle seemed to lose some of his effectiveness, and Danks could find it tough going). The Royals gave Gil Meche $55 million this winter. Hopefully the form of Rookie of the Year candidate Alex Gordon will diminish the embarrassment somewhat.

West – Winners = A’s

Irrational favouritism holds no fears for me. I’m picking the A’s despite my better judgement telling me otherwise. There’s a big “if” surrounding the health of Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby and we have already seen two regulars land on the DL for the first couple of months of the season (Kotsay and Dan Johnson). Zito and Thomas have gone, while there are question marks over how effective Joe Kennedy and Mike Piazza will be. Nevertheless, the A’s face such adversity every year and somehow find a way to pull things together in the second half of the season. The Angels arguably look slightly stronger on paper. If their rookies play well and Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver are fit and effective for most of the season then, as much as I don’t want them to, they will probably just edge the A’s out. I’m sticking with my A’s and keeping my fingers crossed!

Ron Washington left the A’s to take the helm at the Rangers and it will be interesting to see if he can have an instant impact. The Kenny Lofton deal was one of the more sensible signings of the Winter and Sammy Sosa’s incentive laden contract is a risk well worth taking. The Rangers will need major improvements from players such as Blalock and Wilkerson if they are to contend and I can see them falling off the pace as the season goes on. The two main stories in Seattle will concern the immense potential of Felix Hernandez and the possible departure of Ichiro. Felix will help the Mariners forget that they’re not in the division race after the first half of the season, while Ichiro’s Seattle future will be called into question because of it. The fact that two of their main offensive additions played for the hapless Nationals last year doesn’t instil much confidence.

National League

East – Winners = Mets, Wild card = Phillies

It was so near and yet so far for the Mets last season. They were undoubtedly the best team in the National League during the regular season, yet we all know that the play-offs are a lottery. All the Mets can do is brush themselves down, get to the play-offs again and hope things turn out differently this year. Their rotation looks a bit suspect (must be contagious in New York) but they should be too strong for their competition regardless. The Phillies certainly look like a well-rounded ballclub and if they can net a useful player or two for Jon Lieber then they will run the Mets close and take the wild card. Jimmy Rollins’ comments may prove to be an added incentive to the Mets and the Braves, but fans of the Phillies will be pleased to see some real optimism and expectation from their players. The Braves could get into the wild card mix if other teams falter and the Marlins will hope to build on a surprisingly successful 2006 campaign. The Nationals might as well not bother turning up. With a new stadium on the horizon, you would think the new owners might want to generate some excitement by putting together a competitive team (at the very least). They must be working to another plan, but I’ve got no idea what it is.

Central – Winners = Cardinals

The lack of a real powerhouse ballclub or two will make the Central in 2007, as in 2006, an exciting season-long battle. The Cardinals played the system perfectly last year, knowing that you just need to make the play-offs and then anything is possible. Few could blame the Cards for deciding against giving lucrative contracts to Suppan, Marquis and Weaver, but have they been able to replace them effectively enough? If the supporting cast flops then it could be a disappointing year for the World Series champions; however any team with a core of Carpenter, Pujols and Rolen is going to be tough to beat

The Tigers went from 71 wins in 2005 to 95 in 2006. A similar twenty-four win increase would put the Cubs on 90 wins and it’s likely that they will need less than that to take the Central this season. So the Cubs’ vast spending over the winter could propel them into the play-offs. They are certainly much improved from last season, yet success is by no means guaranteed considering how poorly they played in 2006. The Astros failed to take their chances over the last few seasons to clinch their first World Series victory and there’s a sense that their window of opportunity may have passed. Oswalt is a genuine ace, Berkman is a genuine offensive star and Carlos Lee should put up big numbers in Minute Maid Park. So they still have a core of quality players and are not without hope even though the odds are against them. The Reds had a good 2006, but they haven’t really built on it during the off-season. The Brew Crew failed to live up to their billing as wild card contenders last year and will be hoping for a full season from Ben Sheets to get them back in the mix. Adam La Roche was a nice pick-up for the Pirates and they have a few players worth watching. The owners don’t seem particularly fussed about helping the team to contend though, which is why they won’t.

West – Winners = Padres

The Padres seem to get overlooked every year despite having won the West twice in succession (acknowledging that they actually finished level with L.A. last season). The Dodgers and Giants are famous franchises and they often get the media attention because of it. So I’m sticking my neck out this year and asking for a bit of respect for San Diego. They’ve got a top pitcher in Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux should find the expanses of PETCO Park to his liking. They’ve got a very good bullpen and have made a few changes to the offense alongside bringing in a new manager. They won’t win 92-95 games, but they can win enough to finish top of the pile again. The Dodgers will put up a strong challenge although there are a lot of possible injury concerns that could derail them, not least relating to their 3-5 hitters (Garciaparra, Kent and Gonzalez). The Giants made the big pitching move of the off-season by inking Zito to a seven-year $126 million contract. It’s not going to dramatically alter their fortunes though. You could be kind and say that they are stacked with experience or be more truthful and note that they are overly reliant on ageing everyday players. The Giants’ season looks set merely to be the backdrop to Barry Bonds’ home run record chase.

The one team everyone is pegging as this year’s dark horses are the Diamondbacks. An extremely talented crop of young players are coming through and they’ve combined this with a veteran rotation in a mixture that just might work out brilliantly. They are helped by the lack of an obvious outstanding team in their division and if they get off to a good start they could take some stopping. The Rockies could also disrupt the proceedings with players such as Helton, Atkins, Holliday and Hawpe putting up runs both at Coors field and on the road.

It promises to be a fascinating season and it’s just about to start. Our patience has been rewarded: baseball is back!