After thirty-eight exciting games, sixteen teams have been reduced to just two. They will compete in the early hours  of Tuesday morning British time (a 1.00 start with first pitch at around 01.30) in a game ‘thirty-nine’ that everyone can look forward to.

 

Japan and Korea have emerged as the finalists of the 2009 World Baseball Classic, bringing together the reigning WBC champions and the reigning Olympic champions. 

It’s a contest that has everything you could wish for.  The local rivalry is obvious, but a more personal rivalry has developed between the two teams.  They have crossed swords in dramatic fashion with regularity on the ballfield in recent years.

WBC ’06 and the 2008 Olympics

In 2006, Korea beat Japan in round one (3-2) and again in round two (2-1) as they qualified for the semi-final of the inaugural WBC with a perfect 6-0 record.  Then Japan came along in the semi and unceremoniously dumped them out of the competition.  A 6-0 shutout was hard to take and the sight of Japan lifting the trophy after their victory in the final against Cuba must have been even worse.  From such a promising beginning, Korea’s WBC had fallen apart.

And all thanks to Japan.

Korea would fight back in epic style two years later as they went on to claim the Olympic title in Beijing.  Korea and Japan met yet again at the semi-final stage, only this time it was the Japanese who were left watching their rivals celebrating.  Up 2-1 at the seventh inning stretch, Japan saw their Olympic hopes dashed as Korea drew level in the bottom of the inning and then went ahead with a four-run flourish in the eighth. A bronze medal match defeat to the US meant that Japan didn’t even get a consolation prize.

And all this while Korea were parading with their gold medals, something the Japanese ballplayers may never get another chance to win thanks to baseball’s demotion from the Olympic programme.

2009 WBC – a personal competition?

Owing to the tournament structure, Japan and Korea have already faced each other four times in the 2009 Classic.  So far the honours have been shared evenly. 

Japan may have hoped that they had dealt their rivals a massive psychological blow in their opening clash.  A 14-2 win, ended early by the mercy rule, was a dream start for Japan and utter humiliation for Korea.  Yet the Olympic champs showed their character by edging their next encounter 1-0 in the Tokyo Dome. 

Their battle then moved on to San Diego.  Korea’s 4-1 victory in their third game together ensured they would qualify for the semi-finals and plunged Japan into a ‘lose-and-you’re-out’ game against Cuba.  The Japanese team defeated their fellow WBC ’06 finalists by a score of 5-0 and then beat Korea 6-2 to earn a semi-final slot against the US.

The story of the stats

The teams look to be fairly evenly matched heading into the final.  Pitching has been key for both, with Japan’s staff recording a combined 1.57 ERA over their eight games compared to Korea’s 2.91.  Their pitching prowess has made up for for the fact that neither offense has set the world alight.  Japan have struck just four home runs during the competition, half of which were launched by their injured first baseman Shuichi Murata.  Meanwhile Korea have hit for more power (ten homers), but have a team batting average of .255.

Judging by their performances so far, the game could turn on how the walks and hits are distributed.  Korea’s willingness to take a walk (a WBC-leading 45 so far) has kept their on-base percentage up at .385 and ensured that they’ve made the most of their hits.  Conversely, Japan’s pitching staff have walked more batters than Korea (26 to 17), but they’ve given up considerably less hits (45 to 67) so that the free passes haven’t come back to hurt them so much.

The starters

If we wanted to look for omens, Korea’s starting pitcher would be a good place to start.  Jung Keun Bong was the man on the mound for Korea in their two victories against Japan.  If he can make it a hat-trick of wins, Bong will become a national hero.  He will also ensure that Japanese baseball fans will be driven to palpitations by the word ‘Bong’ for years to come, in a manner previously reserved to Michael Phelps’ PR team.

Japan will counter with Hisashi Iwakuma, a 6 foot 3 right-hander with a 0.73 ERA over 12.1 innings during the tournament up to this point.

One game, one goal

Start with an historic national rivalry, combine two talented teams with a passionate baseball rivalry and put the mixture into a one game, ‘winner-takes-all’ major international final.  The result?  An unmissable climax to the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

British viewers can watch live from one in the morning on MLB.tv or via ESPN America at 01.30 .  The latter will be showing 2.5 hour re-runs at 12.00 and 18.00 on Tuesday, while MLB.tv subscribers will be able to watch the game back via the ‘archive’ function.