Eight games in and all four division series are sitting at 2-0. MLB.com notes that this happened back in 1995 and only one of the four teams was able to recover: the Mariners over the Yankees. If those are the odds, which team is best placed to emulate the M’s?
It’s difficult to overstate just how big that extra-innings victory was for Cleveland last night. The Indians may have tied Boston for the best regular season record in the Majors, but I felt that they would need to win their opening two home games to put the Yankees out. The big unknown factor is Roger Clemens, who hasn’t pitched since 16 September. He will relish the opportunity to be the hero and it would be no surprise to see him roll back the years and pitch a gem tomorrow in the third game of the series. At the same time, Clemens has been in this situation before and struggled, most notably in the 2005 World Series when he only lasted 2 innings. I can see the Yankees fighting back tomorrow and then beating Paul Byrd in game four to send it to a game five decider. The trouble is, that’s in Cleveland against C.C. Sabathia. Although the Yankees have turned around a 2-0 deficit before (in 2001 against the A’s), I think they’re just going to fall short this time around.
Their AL East rivals are continuing to look like the team to beat and Boston probably dealt the decisive blow in their series last night. Dice-K had a fairly ordinary start (relatively speaking), but the Angels couldn’t take advantage. Throw in Manny’s walk-off blast and it amounted to a very dispiriting night for the Halos, one that will be difficult to recover from. Curt Schilling has a chance to play the hero again in game three and, like Clemens, he’s not one to pass that up too often. If I had to put money on either the Angels coming back to win the series, or Boston to sweep in three, I would go for the latter.
If neither AL team is likely to turn things around, what chance have Philadelphia got? The Phillies have the most difficult task after losing the opening two games of their series at home. The Rockies, like most road teams, would have been happy to head back to Coors Field with the series tied 1-1, so they will be full of confidence. Philadelphia have no margin for error, but sometimes that can be to your advantage. That’s certainly the way they have to look at it: win the third game and put the pressure back on to Colorado’s shoulders. If they can get the Rockies to think about blowing their 2-0 lead, they have a chance. The problem for the Phillies is that Colorado have been playing so well over the last three weeks that you can’t see their confidence failing them now.
That leaves us with the Cubs. Lou Pinella was managing the Mariners in 1995 when they pulled off the great escape, so perhaps they have the experience to make the difference? “Experience†is a good word to consider actually. Much has been made about the young D-Backs batting line-up (with the lowest average age in the National League), but their lack of experience didn’t stop them winning the NL West. And it’s not as though there aren’t any veterans on their roster; Livan Hernandez pitches tonight in game three, for example. The Cubs do have several impact players though, guys like Soriano who can turn a game, and indeed a series, very quickly. Like the Yankees, Chicago are more than capable of levelling the series at Wrigley Field but the question is whether they can then win at Chase Field where Arizona are now 52-31 in 2007. The momentum they would gain from the two home wins might just be enough to make it happen.
When you break down each division series, there are reasons to suggest that each 0-2 team could come back and make it to the Championship series. It’s still difficult to confidently predict any of them will do it though. I don’t think any of them will, but my order of “most-likely to do so” would be Cubs, Yankees, Angels, Phillies.