It’s that time of year yet again.  Time to put common sense to one side and risk ridicule by trying to predict the unpredictable: what will happen in MLB this season. 

One of the great developments at BaseballGB during the last twelve months has been the addition of several new writers, so this time I can share the prediction embarrassment with Joe, Mark and Russ. 

Don’t be too confident

The 2008 Detroit Tigers.  That’s all you need to think about when it comes to the multitude of MLB predictions swirling around the internet right now.  The Tigers made the blockbuster trade in the 07/08 off-season and virtually everybody had them pegged for the AL Central if not for the World Series itself.  Instead, the Tigers tanked right down to the bottom of their own division.

Perhaps there were a few signs we should have picked up on that the Tigers weren’t quite the World Champions elect we thought.  However, this particular swing-and-a-miss was actually one to cherish (for non-Tigers fans).  It was proof that anything can happen over the long MLB season and the Rays’ run to the World Series was another piece of compelling evidence to illustrate the point.

There are a handful of teams you can discount before a pitch has been thrown in anger or excitement (Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles and maybe a couple more), yet for the vast majority you can put together a realistic scenario that would see them making the postseason.

I successfully predicted only three of the eight actual postseason participants over my AL and NL picks last year.  With four of us making our picks this time, there’s a better chance one of us will get it right.  This is how we see things shaking out.

American League

Â	Joe	Mark	Matt	Russ
East	Red Sox	Red Sox	Red Sox	Yankees
Central	Twins	White Sox	Indians	Indians
West	Angels	Angels	Angels	Angels
Wildcard	Yankees	Rays	Rays	Red Sox

We all have the Angels winning the West, even though they aren’t quite the force they have been in previous years.  There are too many question marks over their three division mates to firmly push them ahead of LA, but I’m still holding out hope that a perfect storm could make my A’s the surprise package of 2009.  I’m not going to jinx it by making them my pick though.

We also all think the Red Sox will make it to the postseason yet again and that the second-placed team in the East will grab the wildcard.  It’s a split over whether that will be the Yankees or the Rays. 

The Central is wide open and our selections reflect that.  I like the Indians although their rotation could end up disappointing followers of the Tribe.  The White Sox look like an all-or-nothing team to me, either they push hard for the division crown or they sink on the back of age catching up on Thome, Konerko and Dye.  The Twins are a solid pick, yet the Mauer injury situation is a big concern and seeing Scott Baker hitting the DL takes the shine of what was looking like a very promising rotation (which it could still be, of course, when Baker returns).

National League

Â	Joe	Mark	Matt	Russ
East	Mets	Phillies	Phillies	Braves
Central	Cubs	Cubs	Cubs	Cubs
West	Dodgers	Dodgers	Dodgers	D-Backs
Wildcard	Giants	Mets	Mets	Giants

Once again, we all agree on one of the division winners.  That’s not too much of a surprise as the Cubs look like being the cream of the Central.  Their main challengers from ’08, the Brewers, have lost their two best pitchers and unsurprisingly haven’t been able to replace them.  They should still be a good team, as could the Cardinals, but matching the Cubs is another matter.

Three of us have gone for the Dodgers in the West and I’m sure the presence of one M Ramirez has been a key factor here.  The D-Backs will fancy their chances with Webb and Haren being an imposing 1-2 starting duo and the Giants could also have a strong rotation with reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum leading the group.  Russ sees both teams making the post-season, while Joe also believes the Giants could sneak in via the wildcard.

Mark and I have picked the same teams throughout the NL, with the wildcard coming from the East; however Russ’s prediction that the Braves could come out on top in the division shows how competitive it is.  Even the Marlins could be in with a shout heading into September with their talented young starting rotation. 

I think the East is a coin toss between the Phillies and the Mets and whether the loser makes it to the postseason could depend on how the West pans out.  The Padres are going to be terrible and if Colorado has a bad year (minus the departed Matt Holliday and the injured Jeff Francis) then maybe the unbalanced schedule could play into the hands of the second-placed team in the West, even though the runners-up in the East may be the better team.

Postseason

The regular season is hard enough to predict, but the postseason is a complete lottery.  Here’s our take on the AL first:

Â	Joe	Mark	Matt	Russ
ALDS 1	Yankees over Twins	Red Sox over White Sox	Red Sox over Angels	Indians over Yankees
ALDS 2	Angels over Red Sox	Rays over Angels	Rays over Indians	Red Sox over Angels
ALCS	Angels over Yankees	Red Sox over Rays	Red Sox over Rays	Indians over Red Sox

Mark and I agree again with our predictions that the Red Sox will defeat the Rays in a re-run of last year’s classic ALCS.  Russ thinks the Indians will meet and beat the Red Sox instead, while Joe has the Angels making it through to the World Series for the first time since winning it in 2002.

As for the NL:

Â	Joe	Mark	Matt	Russ
NLDS 1	Dodgers over Cubs	Phillies over Dodgers	Phillies over Dodgers	D-Backs over Braves
NLDS 2	Mets over Giants	Cubs over Mets	Mets over Cubs	Giants over Cubs
NLCS	Dodgers over Mets	Cubs over Phillies	Mets over Phillies	D-Backs over Giants

Some variation here, with all four of us picking a different NLCS match-up and none of us picking the same team to make it to the World Series.  And as for the Fall Classic:

Â	Joe	Mark	Matt	Russ
World Series	Angels over Dodgers	Red Sox over Cubs	Red Sox over Mets	Indians over D-Backs

Mark and I both go for the Red Sox making it three World Series in six years, although in Mark’s scenario it’s going to be the product of yet more heartbreak for the Cubbies.  Joe thinks a Freeway Series is on the cards and that the Angels will come out on top in the battle of LA.  Russ meanwhile has gone for what some may call a ‘minnows’ World Series with two of the less well-known teams getting their chance in the Fall Classic.  That would be fun to see (I suspect TV execs in the States wouldn’t agree) and fans in Cleveland would certainly be glad if Russ’s prediction comes true.

So those are the BGB predictions for 2009.  Feel free to add your own in the comments section below, all in the spirit that none of us really knows what will happen and that this is exactly why it should be a fantastic season.